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Old 10-23-2022, 08:44 PM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The future is hard to believe.

Look at this roster for 2023. It's ****ing madness.

QB: Mahomes, Buechele (RFA)
RB: Pacheco, McKinnon (easy re-sign), Edwards-Helaire
FB: Burton (easy re-sign)

WR: Valdez-Scantling, Moore, Watson (easy re-sign), Ross
TE: Kelce, Gray, Fortson (RFA)

LT: ???, Wanogho (RFA)
LG: Thuney, Wylie (easy re-sign)
C: Humphrey
RG: Smith, Wylie (easy re-sign)
RT: Niang, Wanogho (RFA)

DE: Danna, Kaindoh
DT: Jones, Wharton (RFA)
DT: ???
DE: Karlaftis,

WLB: Gay
MLB: Bolton, Chenal
SLB: Chenal, Cochrane (RFA)

CB: Sneed, McDuffie, Watson, Williams, Johnson
S: Reid, Cook, Bush (easy re-sign)

K: Butker
P: Townsend (RFA)
LS: Winchester

2023 Cap space: $45m with a Frank Clark cut, and even more with a Mahomes re-structure
2023 Draft picks: 12: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd (Poles), 4th, 4th (Hill), 5th, 6th, 6th (Hill), 6th (Ingram), 7th, 7th (Reed)

Key FA decisions to make:

LT Orlando Brown, Jr.: will he bring his price down?, will they franchise him again? might they actually tag-and-trade?
FS Juan Thornhill: a talented, sub-Pro Bowl player; obvious re-sign
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster: seems like an obvious re-sign, price shouldn't be too bad
WR Mecole Hardman: he either signs a one-year prove-it or he walks
DT Khalen Saunders: he either signs a one-year prove-it or he walks
RB Jerick McKinnon: a must re-sign and should be cheap

They make a splash somewhere at DL in free agency. I think the Chiefs make the deals with Thornhill and JuJu. The Chiefs likely burn a 1st round pick (and goodies for a trade-up) to help fix the tackle situation if they need a LT, or they spend that 1st on the best DL they can get their mitts on if Brown comes to his senses and burns a 2nd day pick on RT.

They will draft a WR high, they may sniff out a top-end talent at RB somewhere for a steal, and then they just add depth in the trenches.

This team may win a Super Bowl this year. They shed Tyreek Hill, the best WR in the NFL, and still got better on offense. And they're going to have ungodly cap space, a dozen picks to stock this roster.

It's going to be absolutely disgusting how good this team is going to be next year, and for the foreseeable future. The Chiefs are in transition this year and still may win it all. If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl this year, we may legit be talking threepeat.

They're going to be that good.
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Old 10-23-2022, 09:52 PM   #2
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At this point I don't see any reason to draft WRs high. I see a maybe 25% chance at best they'll develop. I think you integrate castoffs like Juju and MVS and hope they develop as the season progresses like you're seeing now.

Even if a drafted WR develops you're probably looking at year 3 before they really contribute in any meaningful way. In that case I think you're better getting someone in the 4th or 5th, patience should be expected for someone drafted at that point in the draft. A 1st/2nd round pick should contribute sooner than later and that's just not going to happen in KC.
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Good article. Just as I suspected everything is Smitty's fault. Hope he burns in hell for all of eternity.
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Old 10-23-2022, 10:04 PM   #3
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At this point I don't see any reason to draft WRs high. I see a maybe 25% chance at best they'll develop. I think you integrate castoffs like Juju and MVS and hope they develop as the season progresses like you're seeing now.

Even if a drafted WR develops you're probably looking at year 3 before they really contribute in any meaningful way. In that case I think you're better getting someone in the 4th or 5th, patience should be expected for someone drafted at that point in the draft. A 1st/2nd round pick should contribute sooner than later and that's just not going to happen in KC.
Investments you make now make you better down the road. So yeah I think you make the investments.

Hardman didn't live up to the pick, but Skyy has a better skillset and I think will develop nicely by year 2. Right now he has three guys ahead of him and I think Watson might be taking some of his snaps too.

This is all going to change up by next year. Skyy is going to keep developing, MVS will probably be in his last year as a Chief, JuJu will be cheap against the cap on the first year of a new deal, Watson is cheap to sign. Justyn Ross will be coming off IR as well.

I can't see the Chiefs going WR in the 1st right now; they have multiple holes to fill on the DL and at least one gaping hole at OT.

But the Chiefs probably make a day two pick on a Z receiver prospect, and then draft some one-dimensional speed demon on the third day of the draft that Andy can do some cute things with.
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Old 10-24-2022, 06:57 AM   #4
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Unless a big time WR prospect falls a bit and you wanna trade up for him, just keep swinging at those 2nd round ish WR's.

I'm of the opinion that Andy will want to keep the OL together as long as possible, so I think they sign OBJ to a long term deal at LT and consider LT thru RG done for a couple years.

Wouldn't be the worst idea to take a RT early but you've gotta attack the DL pretty hard.

They're just really in the spot where they don't need to shoe horn themselves into any one spot. Just keep stacking the BPA and depth and see what sticks.
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Old 10-24-2022, 07:36 AM   #5
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Unless a big time WR prospect falls a bit and you wanna trade up for him, just keep swinging at those 2nd round ish WR's.

I'm of the opinion that Andy will want to keep the OL together as long as possible, so I think they sign OBJ to a long term deal at LT and consider LT thru RG done for a couple years.

Wouldn't be the worst idea to take a RT early but you've gotta attack the DL pretty hard.

They're just really in the spot where they don't need to shoe horn themselves into any one spot. Just keep stacking the BPA and depth and see what sticks.
I strongly disagree about OBJ and LT, but beyond that I’m not so sure they won’t be backed into a corner to address DL. The DL room is empty next year, and Chris Jones is in the last year of his deal. 2-3 DL picks are likely going to happen because they have no other choice.
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Good article. Just as I suspected everything is Smitty's fault. Hope he burns in hell for all of eternity.
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Old 10-24-2022, 07:41 AM   #6
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Jones will sign an extension, they'll fill some around him, I'd guess that's a FA priority.
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Old 10-24-2022, 09:12 AM   #7
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Unless a big time WR prospect falls a bit and you wanna trade up for him, just keep swinging at those 2nd round ish WR's.

I'm of the opinion that Andy will want to keep the OL together as long as possible, so I think they sign OBJ to a long term deal at LT and consider LT thru RG done for a couple years.

Wouldn't be the worst idea to take a RT early but you've gotta attack the DL pretty hard.

They're just really in the spot where they don't need to shoe horn themselves into any one spot. Just keep stacking the BPA and depth and see what sticks.
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I strongly disagree about OBJ and LT, but beyond that I’m not so sure they won’t be backed into a corner to address DL. The DL room is empty next year, and Chris Jones is in the last year of his deal. 2-3 DL picks are likely going to happen because they have no other choice.
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Jones will sign an extension, they'll fill some around him, I'd guess that's a FA priority.
I'd be shocked if they don't extend Jones this offseason. Eventually you have to pay the Mahomes piper, and extending Jones this offseason, well look at the cap implications.

If you look through several elite DTs, the NFL only seems to give them that "cheap first year" about half the time.

The four DTs who are at Jones' level or within screaming distance of him:

Aaron Donald's first year cap hit: $27m
Leonard Williams: $9m
DeForest Buckner: $23m
Jonathan Allen: $7m

So it's really hit and miss. Jones' cap hit in his first year was $15m, which seems to split the difference.

Either way, you can probably save money on that first year, but I doubt you can save as much as you think you can. Should be enough to get the Chiefs to $50m in cap space though, assuming you bite the bullet this year on Mahomes/Kelce/Thuney, which you should.
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Old 10-24-2022, 09:17 AM   #8
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For the record, if you tag Orlando Brown again, it's going to be about $20m to do.

You can tag him a third time, as well, but if the Chiefs can't sign Brown, they're probably going to be smart enough to tag and trade him in 2024.

Brown's going to have to come down to avoid that.
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Old 10-24-2022, 01:33 PM   #9
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(Scenario 1) I think tagging Brown again next year is the way to go, probably for both parties. He'll make more than he should, and we don't have to commit ourselves long term.

(Scenario 2) The question is whether or not he wants to play on the tag, and if he doesn't, we'll offer him a discount deal in exchange for 3 years, giving us time to find a replacement.

(Scenario 3) If he demands a trade rather than play on the tag, we'll likely get a late first or a 2nd and change for him.

Either way, in all three scenarios, we come out ahead.
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Old 10-24-2022, 01:35 PM   #10
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If we can find a difference maker at DE, a stable player at RT, and develop another star at WR, we are set up to destroy the world for the 2nd phase of Mahomes' career.
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Old 10-24-2022, 10:39 PM   #11
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(Scenario 1) I think tagging Brown again next year is the way to go, probably for both parties. He'll make more than he should, and we don't have to commit ourselves long term.

(Scenario 2) The question is whether or not he wants to play on the tag, and if he doesn't, we'll offer him a discount deal in exchange for 3 years, giving us time to find a replacement.

(Scenario 3) If he demands a trade rather than play on the tag, we'll likely get a late first or a 2nd and change for him.

Either way, in all three scenarios, we come out ahead.
We won't get CLOSE to a late 1st for him. He was traded for the equivalent of a mid-2nd with 2 years at $19 million in salary in front of him. You think you'll get MORE for him with 1 year at $20 million?

Moreover, I hate the idea of tagging him again. You know what you've got. You'll have 2 full seasons of him here - either he's your future (in which case, LTC) or he's not. In which case, let him walk, bank the 3rd round comp pick and move along.

There's just little to no benefit to tagging him again and frankly it wouldn't surprise me if he refuses to play on it anyway. He just got a looooooot of money. Last season he had about $5 million in career earnings. Now he's got $20 million. He has little incentive to play on the tag at this point.
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Old 10-25-2022, 12:00 AM   #12
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I was envisioning (in scenario 3) a trade contingent on a deal, unlike the one we did with the Ravens. I also figured that there’s a dip in the market for capable LT’s right now, and given our team’s success, perhaps someone would cough up the equivalent of a late first. You make a more than fair point that it would be a lower value than that, so you won’t get much pushback here.

Regarding the tag (scenario 1), I like the move because it gives us the extra year to find (or groom) his replacement, rather than throwing a FA JAG or Rookie at LT to protect the greatest QB who ever lived. The other option there is to let him walk and then trade for a starting LT, but then we are giving up draft capital and cap space for a (neutral?) player.
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Old 10-25-2022, 11:25 AM   #13
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I was envisioning (in scenario 3) a trade contingent on a deal, unlike the one we did with the Ravens. I also figured that there’s a dip in the market for capable LT’s right now, and given our team’s success, perhaps someone would cough up the equivalent of a late first. You make a more than fair point that it would be a lower value than that, so you won’t get much pushback here.

Regarding the tag (scenario 1), I like the move because it gives us the extra year to find (or groom) his replacement, rather than throwing a FA JAG or Rookie at LT to protect the greatest QB who ever lived. The other option there is to let him walk and then trade for a starting LT, but then we are giving up draft capital and cap space for a (neutral?) player.
We don't have a great long-term option at RT either, though.

So I think that if you can't get OBJ signed to a reasonable extension, you let him walk, draft a guy, sign a veteran stop-gap and then retain Wylie.

The veteran stop gap (or even that RFA kid w/ the Packers some are clamoring for) could be the long-term RT. Or the draft pick could be the long-term RT. And in the interim, Wylie can continue to hold down the fort.

I mean its obviously not a perfect option, but it's an available one. And it's one that I'd prefer to retaining OBJ on the tag and with a $20 million cap hit.
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Old 10-25-2022, 11:29 AM   #14
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Sign OBJ to a long term contract and move forward and be done with it.
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Old 10-25-2022, 02:24 PM   #15
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See, I can't accept Wylie as a viable option at RT. He is a backup player and is mid on his best days. For me, he's the weakest link on the entire starting roster.
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