***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[penguinz]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

Coronavirus is new to humans.

Not true. SARS and MERS were types of coronavirus.

[007]

Originally Posted by TLO

You're making too much sense. I'm going to have to ask you to panic and post irrationally from here on out.

[DanT]

Originally Posted by TLO

Also - why is this story getting no attention? Seems pretty significant unless I'm missing something.

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israe...avirus-vaccine

This article by Dr. James Hamblin helps explain. There are already vaccines under development. It's good that there are more potential ones, but vaccines have to go through extensive testing before we know they work. You'll notice in the article you cited that it says that the team there in Israel is working to enable preclinical testing. That testing takes place before testing in humans. The testing in humans is what ultimately matters. The scientific and regulatory world is trying to accelerate the process, but it still will take a few months, at best.

[DanT]

Originally Posted by DaFace

As I understand it, the issue isn't developing the vaccine (though I don't mean to imply that that's negligible). It's all the stuff that has to happen after that. It has to go through the trial phase to make sure it doesn't cause more harm than good, then they have to mass produce it and distribute it.

Most of the estimates I've seen have suggested early 2021 is a reasonable timeline for mass availability.

Exactly right.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DaFace

The issue with those stats is that they only cover the percent of people who were SEEN AND TREATED. It's been reported that this thing can be carried by people showing no symptoms or only mild symptoms, and it's likely that those kinds of cases actually make up the vast majority of people "infected."

The real death rate is almost certainly well below 1%, and it might be more like 0.00001%, especially once we start including areas where the medical response is prepared and better equipped than rural China.

If this is a super charged cousin of the Spanish flu that killed 20 million we could be in for a rough ride. Sure, that many died because there wasn't antibiotics and information on how virus's are transferred. But....


Historians say that at least 200K would have died because of the 10 day incubation period when the infected are asymptomatic. Mostly due to the rural places humans lived in that era. They knew to isolate the sick but the 10 day incubation period was too much for them to overcome in that era.



With modern medicine and IV antibiotics any previously healthy person shouldn't die in America from this disease that seeks immediate help. But people wait to long to go to a doctor or hospital, with the long incubation period of this virus that may exacerbate their stupid decisions to wait.



At least once every two weeks we had someone come into the ER who was septic(virus was in the blood) because they waited to long, We were able to save about 1/2. Jim Henson, founder of the Muppets died because he waited too long.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

There was plenty of hype, sure.

Swine flu had a low fatality rate.

SARS and MERS had a much higher fatality rate but they weren’t very infectious. So the world succeeded in isolating enough patients for the disease to fade out without going pandemic.

Corona virus looks infectious enough that it will most likely go pandemic.

The quarantines can slow it down but they won’t stamp it out. The real questions are probably:

How long before it is in general circulation like the current flu strains?

What is the fatality rate for the general population?

My son, five at the time, got H1N1. It was unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Most powerless I’ve ever felt to help my son.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

If this is a super charged cousin of the Spanish flu that killed 20 million we could be in for a rough ride. Sure, that many died because there wasn't antibiotics and information on how virus's are transferred. But....


Historians say that at least 200K would have died because of the 10 day incubation period when the infected are asymptomatic. Mostly due to the rural places humans lived in that era. They knew to isolate the sick but the 10 day incubation period was too much for them to overcome in that era.



With modern medicine and IV antibiotics any previously healthy person shouldn't die in America from this disease that seeks immediate help. But people wait to long to go to a doctor or hospital, with the long incubation period of this virus that may exacerbate their stupid decisions to wait.



At least once every two weeks we had someone come into the ER who was septic(virus was in the blood) because they waited to long, We were able to save about 1/2. Jim Henson, founder of the Muppets died because he waited too long.

I don't think you understand that antibiotics don't do anything for viruses. I've seen you post stuff about antibiotics and viruses a few times now.

[DaFace]

Damn. CDC just raised Italy to Level 3 (don't travel for nonessential reasons). I have a trip booked there this summer, so I hope they get things under control by then.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by TLO

I don't think you understand that antibiotics don't do anything for viruses. I've seen you post stuff about antibiotics and viruses a few times now.

It doesn't effect the virus, its the side effects that it works on that kill us. The virus doesn't kill you, the effects from the virus can kill you.

Come on man why even put anyone in the hospital, have them go see a doctor? Its a virus, nothing we can do, your going to die or not die anyway, right?

[TLO]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

It doesn't effect the virus, its the side effects that it works on that kill us. The virus doesn't kill you, the effects from the virus can kill you.

Come on man why even put anyone in the hospital, have them go see a doctor? Its a virus, nothing we can do, your going to die or not die anyway, right?

[007]

Truth

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by DaFace

But that's the whole issue - it's a low probability event that is getting a HUGE amount of media attention and is now bordering on causing mass hysteria. There's a chance we'll get hit by a massive asteroid in the next year and all of humanity will be wiped out. Don't think I'll change my vacation plans just yet, though.

You might feel different if you were 80 years old or immunocompromised. This is a very real threat for some groups. My 79-year-old Dad is a little concerned.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

You might feel different if you were 80 years old or immunocompromised. This is a very real threat for some groups. My 79-year-old Dad is a little concerned.

I agree fully. I think I've stated this elsewhere, but my main concern is this spreading in places like nursing homes and the like.

[KCUnited]

Wash your coats, bitch

[Sassy Squatch]

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