Jones vs. 1st Rounder + $20m

[DaFace]

Obviously this is going to be a key discussion this offseason. On The Athletic's podcast (Time's Ours), Nate Taylor said that he's heard that there are multiple teams out there who would give us a 1st round pick for Jones (assuming we tag and trade him), and possibly more than that.

So just to lay out a simplified version of the options:

Option 1:
Chris Jones (probably around $20m per year)

Option 2:
1st round draft pick (cheap for 4-5 years)
$20m worth of other players

For context on how much other players might cost based on recent free agents we've signed:
Clark - $21m
Mathieu - $14m
Hitchens - $9m
Schwartz - $8m
Okafor - $6m

So...which way do we go?

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by wachashi

A long-term deal with Jones is a bet on his continued elite output and health. A "lottery ticket," as you put it, but one with significant downside risk.

That’s not an intelligent appraisal of the situation.

Chris Jones has established a trend of not only being dominant at one of the most important parts of the sport (interior rush) but he has shown to be coachable, as well.

He talked specifically about that before and after the super bowl. He talked about sack nation and how sometimes you have to change things up for the team. He specifically mentioned not always needing to go for the sack and being able to effect the passing game in other ways while staying responsible. He went out and did exactly that. He stayed in his gap and never allowed the 49ers running game to blow right by him while batting down a bunch of passes and got his hands up on many others that prevented Garapolo from getting the ball to targets over the middle (like Kittle).

The other part of the equation is an elite talent like Jones matched with an elite coach like Daly and an elite edge rusher like Clark. Jones has a real chance at his career ending up with a gold jacket if he keeps improving and taking to the coaching of Daly. I can absolutely see him being the most impactful DL in the league in the next 2 years if he stays on his current trajectory as he’s just now entering his prime.

Let’s say we get a haul for Jones like we got for Jared Allen. Unless we manage those resources PERFECTLY we will not get the same impact out of the draft picks as we could get from Jones if he simply continues the trajectory he has already proven to be able to be dominant at.

Chris is also perfectly built to dominate in this specific system that can best utilize his unique movement skills. He’s perfect to be able to play anywhere on the DL and kill it with Twists and others that require his quickness and size to be dominant.

[Skyy God]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

Well obviously, but the risk of injury is far less with a QB than a DT. If your QB is breaking down due to physical punishment, it’s probably a failure of the entire organization. DTs will break down far earlier.

That, and DTs decline rapidly as they age.

Jones will be 26 next season, so.....

https://socalledfantasyexperts.com/a...yers-dl-lb-db/

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Every player that signs a large contract is a risk.

FYP

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

I’ve said multiple times that I’m fine with either scenario as long as we don’t panic.

I’m fine with the Chiefs signing Jones, as long as it isn’t a drastic overpayment.

I’m fine with the Chiefs trading Jones, as long as they don’t accept shit compensation just because they think they can’t afford him.

I’d prefer to keep him, but I totally agree with this post

[wachashi]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

Yeah because Hitchens has been soooooo worth that contract he got.

What gave you the impression I believe Hitchens is worth his contract?

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

I’ve said multiple times that I’m fine with either scenario as long as we don’t panic.

I’m fine with the Chiefs signing Jones, as long as it isn’t a drastic overpayment.

I’m fine with the Chiefs trading Jones, as long as they don’t accept shit compensation just because they think they can’t afford him.

So you are on the fence and arguing both positions.

I am not fine with trading Jones unless we are talking 2 Number 1 picks-which is what he is worth. We should get Mack type return for trading away one of the best defensive players in the game-plus the heart and soul of the Dline.

The guy bleeds Chiefs Red and loves this team. It is not like you can just plug-in someone else and we will be fine. It might take another decade of Junior Savile type players before we get another Jones. That is a big risk, plus gutting our Championship defense in the process.

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

And if you sign Jones, you’ll have less to spend on other positions.

Granted, there are ways to work around the cap. It just becomes much more difficult.

Depending on the contract but he is not going to see that $20M number for a year or two depending on the structure. Even if it is next year we will have an additional $8M from Berry being off. We will have Watkins gone and many others. We will not have an elite talent like Jones to sign every year.

[bigdaddychieffan]

The fact that we are gonna have to pay Mahomes means we can’t keep Jones. We went all in to win it this year. Time to retool and build a dynasty. That has to come from making good financial decisions since we are gonna have to pay that money for the qb that we haven’t had to thus far.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by bigdaddychieffan

The fact that we are gonna have to pay Mahomes means we can’t keep Jones. We went all in to win it this year. Time to retool and build a dynasty. That has to come from making good financial decisions since we are gonna have to pay that money for the qb that we haven’t had to thus far.

Categorically ****ing wrong.

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by BossChief

That’s not an intelligent appraisal of the situation.

Chris Jones has established a trend of not only being dominant at one of the most important parts of the sport (interior rush) but he has shown to be coachable, as well.

He talked specifically about that before and after the super bowl. He talked about sack nation and how sometimes you have to change things up for the team. He specifically mentioned not always needing to go for the sack and being able to effect the passing game in other ways while staying responsible. He went out and did exactly that. He stayed in his gap and never allowed the 49ers running game to blow right by him while batting down a bunch of passes and got his hands up on many others that prevented Garapolo from getting the ball to targets over the middle (like Kittle).

The other part of the equation is an elite talent like Jones matched with an elite coach like Daly and an elite edge rusher like Clark. Jones has a real chance at his career ending up with a gold jacket if he keeps improving and taking to the coaching of Daly. I can absolutely see him being the most impactful DL in the league in the next 2 years if he stays on his current trajectory as he’s just now entering his prime.

Let’s say we get a haul for Jones like we got for Jared Allen. Unless we manage those resources PERFECTLY we will not get the same impact out of the draft picks as we could get from Jones if he simply continues the trajectory he has already proven to be able to be dominant at.

Chris is also perfectly built to dominate in this specific system that can best utilize his unique movement skills. He’s perfect to be able to play anywhere on the DL and kill it with Twists and others that require his quickness and size to be dominant.

Very well said! The big knock on Jones around here was his run-gap responsibilities. IMO he worked hard on that and made huge improvements to become more of a team player. He is perfect for this system so that makes him even more valuable.

I want to win Championships. Jones gives us the best odds for that.

[Fat Elvis]

I will leave this right here.....

https://www.foxnews.com/sports/cleve...-arrest-border

Former No. 2 draft pick facing federal drug charge after arrest at border: report

Offensive line, no less.
























But yeah, Chris Jones is too much of a risk.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Think of what we could do with all the picks that we could get for Mahomes!! And that’s not even factoring in the $40 million.

Here’s where Mahomes is different than Jones.

Mahomes is worth more than any realistic compensation we could receive plus whatever the Chiefs pay him. He’s the greatest talent ever at the most impactful position in team sports. He also plays a position where the greats can play into their late 30’s, but he’s only 24.

Jones is different than Mahomes, because you have a FAR greater chance of replacing his impact with the return you receive for him plus the cap space you save.

Is Jones worth more than what the Chiefs could revive for him plus whatever they pay him? Depends on what they receive for him or what they would have to pay him.

Reverse the situation. If we had two firsts, would you trade the earlier pick for Chris Jones and pay him? A lot of people would and I don’t blame them.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

Here’s where Mahomes is different than Jones.

Mahomes is worth more than any realistic compensation we could receive plus whatever the Chiefs pay him. He’s the greatest talent ever at the most impactful position in team sports. He also plays a position where the greats can play into their late 30’s, but he’s only 24.

Jones is different than Mahomes, because you have a FAR greater chance of replacing his impact with the return you receive for him plus the cap space you save.

Is Jones worth more than what the Chiefs could revive for him plus whatever they pay him? Depends on what they receive for him or what they would have to pay him.

Reverse the situation. If we had two firsts, would you trade the earlier pick for Chris Jones and pay him? A lot of people would and I don’t blame them.

So then you’re getting less value for Jones because now you have to replace him.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

So you are on the fence and arguing both positions.

I am not fine with trading Jones unless we are talking 2 Number 1 picks-which is what he is worth. We should get Mack type return for trading away one of the best defensive players in the game-plus the heart and soul of the Dline.

The guy bleeds Chiefs Red and loves this team. It is not like you can just plug-in someone else and we will be fine. It might take another decade of Junior Savile type players before we get another Jones. That is a big risk, plus gutting our Championship defense in the process.

Yeah that’s pretty much my stance. As long as we sign him to a decent deal or get great compensation, I’m happy.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

So then you’re getting less value for Jones because now you have to replace him.

Really just depends on the return you get for him