LNBS: Can Alex Smith be "Fixed"?

[BossChief]

Part of me wants to think so.

We saw flashes in 2013 of him testing defenses downfield and being a lot more than a game manager.

Then his OL got severely downgraded through 3 big losses in free agency (all 3 got overpaid) and his 2 guards weren't even nfl quality, let alone starter quality.

His receivers needed a major upgrade last offseason (they were an obvious team weakness) and other than adding Jason Avant late in the year and developing a promising rookie in Albert Wilson...not a whole lot was done to help provide Alex Smith with adequate weapons. Losing Avery to injury further weakened an already subpar unit.

Here's my question:

If they improve the OL and receivers...will we see Alex Smith come out of his shell again (like we saw flashes of in the second half of 2013)?

If he does, how far can this team go if the defense plays like it has and Dee Ford steps into Hali's shoes adequately?

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by Pablo

I wonder if there is more than one person in Utah that claims that title.

Lol, more than likely. But nowhere else.

Meh. They're still Boise State's bitch.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by ViperVisor

Repeating this ignorance doesn't make it true.

Ok, that is some interesting data, and if you look beyond the sufrace completely supports the idea that Alex Smith holds on to the ball too long and supports the supposition that a lot of the sacks he takes are caused by him and not the offensive line.

First, let's look at the sack rates in the first 2.5 seconds. These sacks can be put fully on the OL, since they are getting beat so quickly and the QB doesn't have a prayer. Alex's sack rate is about 1.6% in the first 2.5 seconds, compared to a league average of 1.97%. He doesn't have anything close to the worst situation in the NFL in this regard, even if you allow for the fact that he uses his legs to bail him out of some situations. His passer rating in cases where he gets rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less is 103.4, compared to an NFL average of 96.8, again better than average.

Now let's look at what happens when he holds the ball longer than 2.5 seconds. We've all seen Alex cock his arm to throw the ball (presumably because he momentarily thought he saw an opportunity) then pull the ball down. Alex's sack rate after 2.5 seconds jumps up to 16.7%, compared to a league average of 10.5%. The blame on these sacks goes increasingly on the QB. For example, when playing behind the same OL, Nick Foles had a sack rate after 2.5 seconds of 4.2% while Mark Sanchez's sack rate is more than twice as high at 9.8%. Likewise Kurt Counsins' greater than 2.5 second sack rate was much lower than RGIIIs and Charlie Whitehurst's was much lower than the other Tennessee QBs. So many of the sacks that Alex took fall squarely on his shoulders.

And it's not like Smith is trading off sacks for better opportunities to throw the ball. Smith's passer rating when he holds on to the ball for 2.5 seconds or more drops to 76.3. compared to a league average of 80.8 in this situation. As he holds on the to ball longer, he gets sacked more than other NFL QBs and he becomes a worse QB than other NFL QBs. Bad things happen when he holds on to the ball. He does not see the field to find opportunities, he does not make things happen. He is best when he makes a quick read and dumps the ball, which is one of the things we criticize about him. But when he tries to do more than that, bad things happen. More than other QBs, he needs to make it a priority to get rid of the ball quickly in order to be successful.

Not all QBs follow this pattern. Ben Roethlisberer, Tony Romo, and and Aaron Rodgers all have QB ratings well over 110 when they hold the ball for more than 2.5 seconds. Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, and Ryan Fitzpatrick all have ratings over 90 when they hold the ball. Several QBs have a higher rating when they hold the ball than when they throw it quickly. They can afford to hold on the ball.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by Numbah One

It is when you could have gone 12-4 by beating the Titans, Raiders and Stanton-led Cardinals.

Amazing, isn't it?

To think that a team who is, by Chiefs Planet standards, beyond the pale of shitty, quarterbacked by a stiff who can't throw, coached by a corpulent reerun and managed by a hack who has no nose for talent, had a winning record with the toughest schedule in the NFL, beat the two best teams in the entire league and should have had home field advantage throughout the playoffs!

That's actually a very good point C.E. and shows how close this team actually is to being an elite NFL team.

Three positional upgrades and those are indeed wins which gives this team a significant opportunity to waltz right into the Super Bowl, which should be expected in Year Three of a new regime that knows what they are doing.

I think that the Chiefs have made all the right steps in terms of progression under the Dorsey/Reid/Smith era. In Year One, they've proven they weren't the horrible team that they showed in 2012. In Year Two, they proved that wasn't a fluke by compiling a winning record against the toughest schedule in the NFL and beating the two best teams in the league. Year Three should see that next step of getting into the playoffs and winning.

I can't possibly imagine why any Chief's fan, no matter how much of a pessimistic anus they were, couldn't look objectively at the beginning of the Dorsey/Reid/Smith Era and be happy with the progression.

[Reerun_KC]

Reading this thread just proves that Reid really isn't that good of a coach. Smith is regressing is the easiest offense to run in the NFL.

Reids hand picked qb? LOL.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by Bowser

Well, we can all agree on this - 2015 is the third year for Alex in this system. If he doesn't show marked improvement this coming season along with winning in the playoffs, it cannot be argued that this trade was a waste of resources and time and we are worse off for making the trade in the first place.

Worse off?

What should they (Dorsey/Reid) have done/what would you have suggested they have done that would have resulted in a better situation than what the team current is experiencing?

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by Rausch

We have, now documented, the worst WR's in the history of the league in YAC.

The worst, hands down.



KC's line is dog$3it. I thought it would be bottom 5 but Alex scrambled his ass off and we managed to only be the 7th most sacked team in the NFL.



Pay for a vet HOG or two and roll the dice in the draft (3rd round sounds about right) on a WR...

Link?

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

Worse off?

What should they (Dorsey/Reid) have done/what would you have suggested they have done that would have resulted in a better situation than what the team current is experiencing?

Actually building a team that can contend for championships 3+ years down the line from when they took over in 2013 rather than the constant roster hole patching that only ensures a .500 record and wildcard round losses.

[Mother****erJones]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

31 year athletes rarely change their spots.

I think his Buster Douglas moment was the Indy playoff game.

Then he went back to being Buster Douglas.

That's an excellent point. I just hope he does it again when we make the playoffs next year

[Mother****erJones]

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

Reading this thread just proves that Reid really isn't that good of a coach. Smith is regressing is the easiest offense to run in the NFL.

Reids hand picked qb? LOL.

Isn't that good of a coach? That's asinine. Reid is damn good coach and we're lucky to have him. We won 9 games with a terrible oline and WR core that caught 0 TDs. And we played a hard schedule and beat some good teams.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

Reading this thread just proves that Reid really isn't that good of a coach. Smith is regressing is the easiest offense to run in the NFL.

Reids hand picked qb? LOL.

Toughest schedule in the NFL, bottom 5 OL and WR corps and we still had a winning season and beat the 2 best teams in the league.

Your stupidity is as expected as your posting.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

Worse off?

What should they (Dorsey/Reid) have done/what would you have suggested they have done that would have resulted in a better situation than what the team current is experiencing?

1st year - build to win immediately
2nd year - rebuild



Most of the key issues with this year's team were known going into free agency and draft. Dorsey fail to address them.

If he had just handled OG and WR successfully we would of made the playoffs.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by Pablo

Yeah, I remember when Utah was named the National Champ.

The Orange Bowl proved a rout with USC defeating Oklahoma 55-19, which earned the Trojans their second consecutive AP title and first BCS title. This game, USC's victory over rival UCLA, and the BCS title were later vacated as part of the sanctions levied against USC as a result of an NCAA investigation. USC appealed the decision but was denied by the NCAA on May 26, 2011, and the BCS title for 2004 was officially vacated on June 6, 2011. Auburn, Utah, and Boise State all went unbeaten but were not offered a chance to compete for the championship.

And that Utah team was a significantly better team than the Ohio State team that just won the NC. Just saying...

[RunKC]

Something else that's crazy. People deep throat Rivers and the Chargers so much. Their offense only scored one more TD than we did last year.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Toughest schedule in the NFL, bottom 5 OL and WR corps and we still had a winning season and beat the 2 best teams in the league.

Your stupidity is as expected as your posting.

The results speak for themselves.

Zero playoff wins in three appearances since 2008 and his winning percentage has fallen by practically 10%. Further, his teams fall apart in the second half of the season.

2013 is the high water mark for Reid.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by Pablo

Does anyone here really expect marked improvement?

In his tenth NFL season, is there any brave soul that wants to step forward and proclaim that this will be the year Alex takes that next step?