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Old 09-26-2023, 08:49 AM  
Hammock Parties Hammock Parties is offline
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DVOA rankings 2023
https://www.ftnfantasy.com/nfl/tools/team-total-dvoa

Chiefs

Quote:
6th overall
6th offense
9th defense

74.4% chance to win West
21.2% chance to win 1 seed
22.4% chance to win AFC (1st)
12.1% chance to win SB (3rd)
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Old 09-26-2023, 10:09 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by wazu View Post
That must be the key that throws this whole thing off with a small sample size. Browns at 4 seems pretty laughable.
Cleveland beat the shit out of Cincy and Tennessee.

That's more quality wins than we have.
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Old 09-26-2023, 10:11 AM   #17
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Not sure if it's just how the stats line up but a person could easily just take the PF(points for) and PA(points against) ratio and the list comes out pretty close to what they have. Does seem their list slightly favors teams that have given up less points even if they have gain a ton...example Phins being #2 on their list but PF/PA ratio puts them tied for #6.

PF/PA Ratio:
#1: Bills
#2-tie: Browns
#2-tie: Cowboys
#4: 49ers
#5: KC
#6-tie: Philly
#6-tie: Phins
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Old 09-26-2023, 10:11 AM   #18
RaidersOftheCellar RaidersOftheCellar is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties View Post
Cleveland beat the shit out of Cincy and Tennessee.

That's more quality wins than we have.
Buffalo has zero quality wins and a bad loss.
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Old 09-26-2023, 10:16 AM   #19
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There's some legit defenses in the league this year.

Cleveland, Dallas, SF, Philly, KC
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Old 09-26-2023, 10:17 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar View Post
Buffalo has zero quality wins and a bad loss.
they still beat the shit out of two teams in a row, and have the #2 offense and defense, and that carries weight

we beat the 1-2 jags and 0-3 bears, being 6th is more than fine, you can trust the computer
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Old 09-26-2023, 10:20 AM   #21
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It's too small of a sample size to conclude this is definitely a top defense, but you can't ignore that in 3 games the defense has allowed 3 touchdowns, and one of them was that garbage time Fields TD pass.
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Old 09-26-2023, 10:26 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by Hammock Parties View Post
Cleveland beat the shit out of Cincy and Tennessee.

That's more quality wins than we have.
Tennessee is a bad football team. They also lost to the Steelers who are terrible but whatever, division games are weird. Them beating the Bengals is about like us beating the Jaguars.
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Old 09-26-2023, 10:39 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief View Post
Bills have played Zach Wilson, Jimmy G and Sam Howell....
It will be interesting to see what happens in the Miami & Buffalo game on Sunday.
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Old 09-26-2023, 10:44 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by wazu View Post
Tennessee is a bad football team. They also lost to the Steelers who are terrible but whatever, division games are weird. Them beating the Bengals is about like us beating the Jaguars.
So is Chicago.

Our ranking is fair.
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Old 09-26-2023, 10:46 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by Hammock Parties View Post
So is Chicago.

Our ranking is fair.
Don't have a problem with our ranking. I was calling out the Browns who are a million miles away from being the NFL's 4th best team. I appreciate the what this model is trying to do, but when I see things like that my impression is it needs more data.
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Old 09-26-2023, 10:47 AM   #26
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Cleveland's defense has been so dominant, that they have a below-average offense and special teams (per DVOA), but still rank as the fourth-best team in total DVOA.

That unit is STOUT.
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Old 09-26-2023, 11:05 AM   #27
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DVOA clearly gives a lot of weight to margin of victory, which is why teams that run up the score like the Bills always rank highly. Then they shit their pants when they face a good team in a big game.
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Old 09-26-2023, 11:08 AM   #28
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Don't have a problem with our ranking. I was calling out the Browns who are a million miles away from being the NFL's 4th best team. I appreciate the what this model is trying to do, but when I see things like that my impression is it needs more data.
Not based on how they've started the season. They've been impressive.
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Old 09-26-2023, 11:23 AM   #29
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I hope we can sneak into the top 4 so we can play for the national championship.

Seriously who give a flying ****?
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Old 09-26-2023, 11:32 AM   #30
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I hope we can sneak into the top 4 so we can play for the national championship.

Seriously who give a flying ****?
It's fun to see the percentages for the postseason as the season progresses.
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