The Chiefs are good enough to give Andy Reid the Super Bowl he deserves

[Direckshun]

My body is willing.

https://www.sbnation.com/2017/9/18/1...bowl-contender

The Chiefs are good enough to give Andy Reid the Super Bowl he deserves
Andy Reid and the Chiefs look like the best team in the NFL right now, and I’m so here for it.
by Louis Bien @louisbien
Sep 18, 2017, 11:01am EDT

There are seven NFL teams sitting at 2-0, and none of them has looked as good as the Kansas City Chiefs. This is weird.

Not that the Chiefs being good is weird. The Chiefs have had a winning record each season and missed the playoffs just once in four years under Andy Reid.

But for the Chiefs to look utterly dominant is something else. Under Reid, the Chiefs have become the sort of high-floor, low-ceiling team that you wouldn’t really expect to see in the Super Bowl. They’ve gone down swinging (read: painfully, excruciatingly) in all three of their playoff losses under Reid and have yet to get past the Divisional round. They could be counted on to be pretty good in all phases — to rush better than most teams, to be frustrating to score on, and to not cough up the ball — but fall short when games are tight and matter most.

In two games against two good opponents this season — the Eagles finished last season fifth in DVOA, the Patriots were first and, like, won a Super Bowl — the Chiefs have scored 69 points and given up 47, rushed for 331 yards, passed for 519, and generally look like an enhanced version of the team we’ve come to know. A rising tide lifts all boats — or in this case, a rejuvenated Alex Smith makes the Chiefs a helluva lot harder to deal with. He has been spectacular through two games, throwing for 619 yards at 9.8 yards per attempt and a 134 passer rating.

With not even two weeks completed in the season, we have only enough data to overreact to what we see. That said, the Chiefs seem worth overreacting to. They have always been good. The idea that they may be great isn’t at all farfetched. They have been building toward this for years. On its current trajectory, this would be one of Reid’s finest teams ever — and oh, it’s bucking NFL conventions along the way, which is always good and never bad.

This is basically a college team

The axiom goes that champions are built through the NFL Draft. By my count, the Chiefs are starting 16 players who they drafted, with just one of those players — veteran linebacker Derrick Johnson — having been on the roster longer than Reid.

This team has been built in Reid’s image, particularly on offense where the Chiefs have finally stockpiled a critical mass of squat, fast-twitch, space-destroyers to hornswoggle the league.

The most shocking thing about the Chiefs’ season-opening win over the Patriots was that they did it while running what looked like a college offense. Early in the game Smith, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce formed a backfield, and Kelce stepped up to take the snap and ran the option:



And it worked! So the Chiefs kept running it all night, sometimes throwing three backs and two tight ends on the field to complete their Navy impression.

A rookie — running back Kareem Hunt — was maybe the most important player on the field. He finished with 148 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries, and he looked explosive, and tough, and remarkably balanced in the process. The circumstances of general manager John Dorsey’s firing this offseason are somewhat cloudy, but he gave the cash-strapped Chiefs an incredible parting gift in the third-rounder.

Hunt and the running game opened up the downfield passing game, and Smith cleaned up, throwing for 178 yards on just three deep balls. He had two more deep passes for 79 yards against the Eagles, which is good for anyone and outstanding for a notorious dink-and-dunker. Smith looks like a brand new quarterback this season.

Alex Smith is playing with cuss

After rookie backup Pat Mahomes unleashed a series of spectacular passes in the Chiefs’ final preseason game, Smith was spotted on the sideline looking ... not enthused. The moment recalled his body language in the midst of losing his starting job to Colin Kaepernick with the 49ers.

Smith never got his starting job back in San Francisco. So far after stepping back into the Chiefs’ lineup, he has not only played well, but so unlike himself.

Smith is averaging 6.8 yards per attempt over his career, which is paltry given he’s completing 62 percent of his passes. Last season, just 8.16 percent of his passes traveled more than 20 yards through the air, according to Cian Fahey’s Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue, fewer than every qualified quarterback except Sam Bradford and Jared Goff.

This season, Smith has attempted seven passes longer than 20 yards, roughly 11 percent of his attempts, and complete five of them. One of his best was a dime he dropped to a covered Chris Conley on the Chiefs’ final touchdown drive against the Eagles for a 35-yard gain.

Maybe it took a much younger, rocket-armed existential threat to draw out this new, aggressive Alex Smith, or maybe it’s the fact that he’s finally playing in an offense that he’s truly comfortable in ...

“One of the things we did when Alex came here was we went back and kind of looked at some of the stuff he had done in college and was familiar with,” Reid said, referring to what would become part of the base offense.

Whatever the case, the Chiefs’ offense is well-positioned to go much further than it has in years.

And yet there are two things that could bring the Chiefs to a screeching halt

he first: The Chiefs lost Eric Berry for the season to a non-contact Achilles injury in the season opener. Perhaps no defensive position is as heaped with responsibility as safety in today’s NFL, and Berry plays it as instinctually and beautifully as anyone in the league.

He was a big reason why Rob Gronkowski couldn’t get open against the Chiefs’ secondary. Should they face the Patriots again this season, Berry’s absence could be costly.

The second: This is still an Andy Reid team, and for all the good that means — his teams are as consistent and well-balanced as they come — the Chiefs will be hamstrung in late-game situations.

This is the Reid Paradox: He is somehow both the best and worst thing to happen to NFL teams. There is nothing more to do than to point at the team’s last two playoff losses. Reid is hardwired to make egregious game-management mistakes. And yet, it’s not like we ever see him panic. You get the sense that Reid is a laborious thinker who is uncomfortable being sped up. At some point this season, the Chiefs will enter the final minutes of the fourth quarter with either too many timeouts or not enough, and when they lose by one score, Reid will be the only person who isn’t miffed.

I can’t help but make this personal: I love Andy Reid

I love that his players love him, I love that he loves Hawaiian shirts, and I love how he tweaks the game. He and Bill Belichick are perhaps the only two NFL head coaches who you can count on to truly innovate a game plan rather than simply iterate on a few guiding principles. Every week, they’ll do something that no other NFL team is doing, and it’ll work. And unlike Belichick, Reid is a person. Bill Belichick has never looked this happy.

I’m a Lions fan, so every year I pick another team I want to win a Super Bowl since mine won’t. I am so here for a Chiefs title run. Innovation deserves to be rewarded. Time — not just Reid’s near-20 seasons, but Smith’s quest to be deemed worthy and Berry’s constant battle against his body — deserves to be rewarded. Fun deserves to be rewarded, and it’s been so long since that has felt like the case in the Super Bowl.

This is a team in Reid’s image. It is quirky, and disciplined and unassuming for how good it has been. This is what his tenure in Kansas City has been building up to. The roster is of the team’s own design, and now it’s up to Reid to guide it. He is the biggest reason why this might the Chiefs’ year, but he’ll be the biggest reason if it’s not.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by Hog Farmer

So taking those number and projecting them into 6 seasons for Smith he will have:

21,277 yards 121 TDs 42 ints. On par with Green. But Green had absolutely NO defense. Still.

Uh...you don't want to include the interceptions? Cause Green has a ****ton more.
Posted via Mobile Device

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by penbrook

Greens stats in KC - 21,459 yards, 118 TDs, 87.3 QBR, 85 INTs and a 48-40 record
Smiths stats in KC - 14,185 yards, 81 TDs, 93.5 QBR, 28 INTs and a 43-20 record

Green played 6 seasons in KC
Smith has played 4 seasons in KC

Now you need to account for the difference in the league's approach to passing at the time.

4,000 yards was a big deal in 2003.

Now it's nothing.

[Buns]

This team is changing the narrative of the taking heads. I realized this yesterday when Terry Bradshaw called Alex one of the finest QBs in the NFL and then immediately didn't recognize the words coming out of his mouth.

[RunKC]

The Chiefs have a SB caliber pass rush provided they stay healthy. They just had a good showing against a top 10 OL.

Houston is elite, Jones has looked elite, Logan has been a nice surprise, Bailey was getting in the backfield a lot and Ford has shown playmaking ability.

This might be the best pass rush we've ever had as a unit. AND Tanoh hasn't even played yet.

[Buns]

At halftime, they were at a loss for words because they had been talking up KC. After the game, they had nothing but positive to say; the ball is the Chiefs' court.

[penbrook]

Originally Posted by Buns

This team is changing the narrative of the taking heads. I realized this yesterday when Terry Bradshaw called Alex one of the finest QBs in the NFL and then immediately didn't recognize the words coming out of his mouth.

Deion Sanders even said he loves himself some Alex Smith

Smith is by far the most underrated player in the game

[Iowanian]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

What I"m hearing ist hat you need to get in line behind Buffalo, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Detroit and god knows how many other teams that have never won a SB. Or do you think the mailmen int hose cities don't root for their teams?

And the weather is waaaay worse in Buffalo and Cleveland than KC.

And heartbreaking losses? Wide right and the Music City Miracle, and "the Drive" and "the fumble" are famous gut-wrenching losses that are known to serious NFL fans just by the pithy phrase that defines them. I think they know something about heartbreak.

Just sayin'...

The only sound I'm hearing is the "off" that you can be ****ing, with your listening device, PED enhanced, flat ball championships.....

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Buns

At halftime, they were at a loss for words because they had been taking up KC. After the game, they had nothing but positive to say; the ball is the Chiefs' court.

Maybe it's because I just saw Mizzou play Purdue the day before or perhaps my memory of the Cassel days has just been seared in stronger than many.

But I still don't see the miserable, awful, no good very bad half of football that everyone is talking about on Sunday. No, the first half wasn't great but again, if Hill just picks up the ball a little sooner and doesn't lose his stride trying to adjust, that's an easy six on a well thrown ball and the entire narrative is different.

The defense was still trying to feel out Wentz and his weapons but not getting gashed. The offense wasn't quite in sync but it was a slipshod pile of ass or anything out there - it was just a little meandering; not quite locked in yet.

Watching that game to the half I never really felt like the Eagles were going to win it. It looked like the Chiefs were just taking a body blow or two while they were finding their footing and getting themselves ready to pull away.

That's not the Jets out there just because they both wear green. That's a damn good football team on the other side and the Chiefs were a garbage time score away from beating them by double digits.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Y'know, I think that perhaps Mahomes has had an impact on Smith, but not the way we think.

I truly do think that Smith is just fresh out of ****s to give at this point. He's been through a lot as an NFL quarterback and sees that there's a pretty good chance that the rug's gonna get pulled out from under him again.

So he's just decided that he's done giving a shit and he's firing away. Moreover, I also think that having his best set of skill position players and easily the most stable OL situation he's had probably is giving him some confidence he previously lacked (Dane's strange but perhaps not incorrect suggestion of his great gazoo helmet may also play a role).

I don't think it's 'competition' that has him pushing the ball more - it strikes me as extremely unlikely that a 12 year veteran is just gonna finally decide "oh shit, I could lose my job" after actually losing his job at least twice in his career. Why would this be what does it? The guy was on the fringe of out of the league 5 years ago and still played nervous.

I think it's actually the opposite - the complete freedom that comes with the knowledge that his play might not actually matter anymore is what has him taking bigger risks. He knows that his fate is really in the hands of Pat Mahomes and his development (the cap situation kinda mandates this) so he's just gonna let it hang out and have fun for another year so he can end up in a good spot on his next team.

Because if interceptions sink him - so what? He's rich, he's gonna latch on somewhere next year and unless Mahomes absolutely sucks in practice, he's not back in KC in 2018 anyway. So to hell with it; let's see what we can do with these new toys...

I stand by the idea that Alex Smith has not changed as much as people think. He still plays like a tentative game manager until he gets down by a touchdown. It isn't mahomes pushing him. It isn't not giving a ****. It's that Alex Smith only plays the kind of aggressive football he should always play when we start to lose control of the game.

Which is why he is still the biggest thing standing in our way. I don't want to continue this path. Because this approach puts pressure on the defense to be perfect in the 4q and for Alex Smith to be nails in the final few drives. And in the playoffs, there will come an opposing qb that plays out of his mind in the 4q. There will be a defense that doesn't let Alex claw back into the game, as good as he is. We can't live and die by managing games until the 4q.

[FringeNC]

I'll be more of a believer if the O-line doesn't get destroyed by Pittsburgh like it did twice last year.

If the O-line plays like it did against NE...

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

I stand by the idea that Alex Smith has not changed as much as people think. He still plays like a tentative game manager until he gets down by a touchdown. It isn't mahomes pushing him. It isn't not giving a ****. It's that Alex Smith only plays the kind of aggressive football he should always play when we start to lose control of the game.

Which is why he is still the biggest thing standing in our way. I don't want to continue this path. Because this approach puts pressure on the defense to be perfect in the 4q and for Alex Smith to be nails in the final few drives. And in the playoffs, there will come an opposing qb that plays out of his mind in the 4q. There will be a defense that doesn't let Alex claw back into the game, as good as he is. We can't live and die by managing games until the 4q.

{shrug}

Stand by whatever you'd like but he took 4 deep shots in a game the Chiefs trailed for maybe 3 minutes last week, including one when they were up by a score to effectively ice the game.

Two weeks ago they were down a field goal two possessions into the 3rd quarter when he uncorked it to Hill. They were sitting on 1st down with a whole quarter of football ahead of him on the throw to Hunt. He hit Conley on that beauty along the sideline when they were up a score to set up Hunt's last rushing TD; effectively a nail in the coffin.

Virtually all his deep work has been done with the game within a single score one direction or another. Now you can try to argue that you haven't seen enough to change your mind but you absolutely do not have any grounds to argue that anything you have seen this year supports your position.

Based on what we've actually seen - you're simply wrong. What you're demonstrating here is little more than confirmation bias. There are arguments to make against Smith's 'renaissance' but you're not presently making one that stands up to even the smallest amount of scrutiny.

[DJ's left nut]

Seriously - 1 pt lead in the 4th quarter and he throws this ball into a tiny window that's closing fast:



Your argument is that he threw it because he had to and that's just not right. The checkdown to the RB gets them near a huge FG and may be the 'smart' game manager decision.

That throw to Conley took serious stones and was an outstanding strike.

That isn't a guy playing with his hair on fire, it's a guy that trusts his ability to fit that ball in there.

[penbrook]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Seriously - 1 pt lead in the 4th quarter and he throws this ball into a tiny window that's closing fast:



Your argument is that he threw it because he had to and that's just not right. The checkdown to the RB gets them near a huge FG and may be the 'smart' game manager decision.

That throw to Conley took serious stones and was an outstanding strike.

That isn't a guy playing with his hair on fire, it's a guy that trusts his ability to fit that ball in there.

[Marcellus]

Its all about the team staying healthy from here on out IMO.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Now you need to account for the difference in the league's approach to passing at the time.

4,000 yards was a big deal in 2003.

Now it's nothing.

It is if you have a running game and a Defense.