Over/Under 9 Wins

[frozenchief]

Football Outsiders goes through the whole AFC West discussing whether they will exceed their projected Vegas lines for wins. FO is one of the more intelligent websites, using real data and not just gut instinct. Their take on KC is cautiously optimistic:

Bryan: Forget the win total; what's the over/under for when Patrick Mahomes replaces Alex Smith? It's an odd situation, where a playoff team with a perfectly cromulent starting quarterback goes out and uses a first-round pick to draft his successor rather than bolster something else for a playoff run.

Andrew: Surely they don't intend to actually replace Smith with Mahomes during the season? That's no way to get your team to a Super Bowl!

Bryan: Jay Cutler replaced Jake Plummer in 2006, which turned out to also not be a way to get your team to a Super Bowl. You're probably right that the Chiefs won't make a move unless something falls apart this season, but that's a big old ticking clock in the ear of Smith.

Andrew: The Plummer-Cutler thing really irritated me at the time (and not just me), so you just made me glad we're done writing about Denver. It's definitely ominous for Smith's future to have Mahomes not only there but apparently playing very exciting football during the preseason. The Chiefs were one of my favorite teams to watch last year, with quarterback the one damp spot on an otherwise fiery outfit.

Bryan: Yeah, so far, Mahomes doesn't appear to be the next Jim Druckenmiller or Todd Marinovich, which is good for Chiefs fans and bad for Alex. This would be the second time he has lost his job to a hot up-and-coming young draft pick, too. I've got a soft spot for the guy after watching him struggle for so long on some truly terrible 49ers teams. I remember the 49ers faithful chanting that they wanted David Carr -- David Carr!! -- to enter the game to improve the level of quarterback play. No one appreciates the subtle and dangerous art of the check down!

Andrew: To be fair to Smith, he has been exactly what he was signed to be for the Chiefs: a safe quarterback who can help his head coach stabilize the franchise, keep things around him on schedule, help the younger players develop, then hand over to his successor when he becomes the guy who's holding the offense back. Everything I wrote about Chase Daniel's play in FOA 2017 (still available!) applies to Smith, except Smith is a better version of that hyper-conservative, functional passer.

Bryan: And, of course, the best way to help your conservative, functional passer succeed for your team with Super Bowl aspirations is to cut his top receiver in the middle of the offseason for no adequately explained reason. So long, Jeremy Maclin!

Andrew: Hello Travis Kelce, who was the main beneficiary during Maclin's absence last season. Kelce, those running backs, and Tyreek Hill give a lot of quality, versatility, and unpredictability around Smith, but at some point he will probably need to pass to an actual wide receiver. Right now, that guy is Chris Conley. Or Albert Wilson. Or ... wait, that's it? They could hold their wide receiver meetings in a cupboard.

Bryan: I will say this, though: for as poor as their offense looks on paper, they haven't looked bad in preseason. Yes, it's just preseason, and there are not enough grains of salt in the world to take that with, but it looks … competent!

Andrew: I found the Chiefs great fun to watch last year. As long as you can forget that Tyreek Hill the football jersey is Tyreek Hill the person, he's electrifying. Kelce is one of the best receiving tight ends in the game, and one of the few tight ends who can line up in any position, run any route, and even take a wide receiver screen 80 yards for a touchdown. Andy Reid does a lot with formations and packages to confound a defense, which often results in beautiful mismatches like Albert Wilson against Telvin Smith in deep centerfield coverage. Their running game is likewise one of the most creative in the league, and they are one of the few teams with a legitimately decent offensive line.

Bryan: Their defense, similarly, is fun to watch, if lacking the oomph or long-term success of Denver. Eric Berry is an amazing player to watch, and grouped with Marcus Peters and Ron Parker, you have a very, very good secondary. There's no more Dontari Poe -- a victim of their tight salary cap situation -- but you have very useful players like Ramik Wilson and Chris Jones to shore up the middle. Oh, and then Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, which are great assets to have in a division with at least two below-average offensive lines. I mean, there's nothing there that matches up with the best in the league at any one position, but it's a group without weaknesses.
I do have a limb I want to go out on here. With an adequate, if not amazing offense, and a solid, if not spectacular, defense, we could see NFL history made. The record for field goals in a season is 44, set by the 2011 San Francisco 49ers. And you know who their quarterback was, right?

Andrew: Alex Smith, the last time he had a highly-drafted rookie quarterback on the bench behind him.

Bryan: So yeah. I'm picking the Chiefs to go 9-7 and win the division -- a tough division, but fair. Now, what's their over/under again … ah hell, another round number. So, I have to decide if this is more likely a 10-6 team or an 8-8 team. That's a huge gap! Down with integer lines! I know they went 12-4 last season, but they didn't have to play the NFC East. I'm going to say the odds that they sputter due to a lack of receiving weapons are greater than the odds that they repeat double-digit wins, so I'm taking the under. Nasty line, this one.

Andrew: This line screams "push" like an over-caffeinated midwife, but I'm taking the over. This is the most balanced team in the division, and good enough to take wins away from all of the other good teams around them. I think they're the best of the West, in the AFC at least.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/scr...est-overunders

[notorious]

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

Hey num nuts I posted it first.

Well God Damnit.


Next time fly the autopilot until at least OM inbound. I will sign your logbook for the ground time on this lesson.


XOXO

[beach tribe]

No way we go under.

Like it or not, Alex is going to play his ass off.
I foresee the return of Alex "crazy legs" Smith.

10 wins maybe 11. Bounced in the divisional round.

Alex traded for a 2nd a 3rd and so begins a decade of dynasty with "Down Pat".

[beach tribe]

Originally Posted by Psyko Tek

the NFC East has a decent dallas team and what else?
nothing to be scared of

I know, right.

Just because the media likes to talk about them doesn't mean they are worth a shit.

[Reerun_KC]

Originally Posted by notorious

Well God Damnit.


Next time fly the autopilot until at least OM inbound. I will sign your logbook for the ground time on this lesson.


XOXO

.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

.

[mdchiefsfan]

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

i think 9 is a good spot for the o/u

wouldnt take either

In all honesty, I think 10-6 is about as marginal as you can get. I could see 11 wins, but I could see 9 just as easily.

I'm choosing the over!!

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Unless they changed something we will be playing the AFCW again this year. We're 11-1 the last two years in that division.

Alex smith is going to have his best year. a probowl year.

Logan is an upgrade over Poe.

Hill is an upgrade over Conley.

Houston is healthy.

Chris Jones year 2.

Dee Ford in in year 3

Our D line is moar awesome than 1 year ago.

Our O line is set.

Kareem Hunt upgrades our RB play.

We have lots of reasons to expect a better product this year.

Our schedule is tougher this year ON PAPER. I think we come out the gate and hand NE a punch in the throat and never look back.

11-5

[threebag]

Over

[FlaChief58]

11-5

[cooper barrett]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Dontari Poe was not a "Cap Victim".

His play slipped from 2014 and he wasn't worth $8 million per.

I hope he is not missed but his chances of getting a ring are better in ATL than here.

So Atlanta put him on a $.5M diet and payed him $8M*. We will see if is worth it.

*$8,000,000 contract with the Atlanta Falcons, including a $7,500,000 signing bonus

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

14 wins

The team didn't get demonstrably better and has a harder schedule. I'd be shocked if they won 11.

9 or 10 seems most likely.

The schedule may look harder but history tells us that as the season goes along that teams that were supposed to be great are now okay because of injury or a 1000 reasons, Easy wins become losses, aka Tampa at home last year. We win games we had as losses at the start of the year, @ATL and @Donks.

Our run defense sucked big time when DJ went down last year. We still made it to 12-4.

We have a Super Bowl caliber defense. Like Dane said, Smith plays like 2015 we got a legitimate chance. Kelsey is in his prime. Defenses cant really plan to stop Hill's speed. I'm more excited for this year than last year.

[cooper barrett]

Originally Posted by notorious

Don't go out on a limb, or anything.

I think he is referring to a "real" playoff game not a wild card position.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

teams that were supposed to be great are now okay because of injury or a 1000 reasons

Yeah, we're that team on other team's schedules.

[Eleazar]

Originally Posted by notorious

Don't go out on a limb, or anything.

I know, double-digit wins and 0 postseason wins is pretty much a standard Andy Reid output.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by cooper barrett

I hope he is not missed but his chances of getting a ring are better in ATL than here