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Old 11-10-2014, 12:09 AM  
Anyong Bluth Anyong Bluth is offline
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*** Official 2014 AL Champion Royals Off-season Repository ***
So, I didn't see a thread started, and all the others are pretty maxed out to the point where a fresh thread would be needed soon either way.

Time to share the run up to ST & and another memorable year in the making!

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Old 03-02-2015, 03:07 PM   #4141
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Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 View Post
Everyone is SUPER OVERRATING James Shields and it's not even funny. He is a solid pitcher, don't get me wrong...

but losing him doesn't suddenly mean we're a 4th place team,

It's getting ridiculous. It's like none of these people even watched the Royals last year.

I'm done worrying about it any prediction that rely heavily on preseason projections. Those just aren't going to be kind to the Royals because of the way the team is constructed. Defense, great bullpens, baserunning... these are all things projections do a poor job accounting for.
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Old 03-02-2015, 03:13 PM   #4142
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Old 03-02-2015, 05:20 PM   #4143
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As DM said recently he doesn't even care about odds. Either you do it in the field or you don't. ZIPS released our projections (last team) and we look ok, 80-83 wins. That sounds about right and if we stay healthy we can prob get to 85-86.


We will need some breakouts from Duffy, Moose, etc to make October.
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Old 03-02-2015, 05:32 PM   #4144
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
As DM said recently he doesn't even care about odds. Either you do it in the field or you don't. ZIPS released our projections (last team) and we look ok, 80-83 wins. That sounds about right and if we stay healthy we can prob get to 85-86.


We will need some breakouts from Duffy, Moose, etc to make October.
What does a Royals team that wins 90 games look like? Let's play with that thought for a while.

Rotation:
Ventura and Duffy: 3.25 ERA (or less), 1.20 WHIP (or less), 200 IP, 175 K
Vargas and Guthrie: 3.90 ERA (combined), 1.20 WHIP, 400 IP
Volquez: 3.75 ERA, 180 IP

Bullpen:
300 IP, 350 K, sub 2.50 ERA from Holland + Davis + Herrera + Hochevar

Lineup:

Gordon: .280/.350/.450 (20 HR, 40 2B)
Rios: .280/.325/.425 (15 HR, 35 2B, 20 SB)
Cain: .280/.325/.425 (10 HR, 40 2B, 20 SB)
Hosmer: .300/.350/.475 (20-25 HR, 35 2B, 100 RBI)
Morales: .280/.315/.475 (20-25 HR, 100 RBI)
Moustakas: .250/.300/.425 (20-25 HR, 75 RBI)

I don't think very many of this projections are crazy... if they get bounce backs from both Morales and Rios, the offense is going to improve a lot (and honestly, the more time goes on, the more I get an Ervin Santana feel from those guys... those moves take a lot of heat because it is easy to write about and run down, but the Royals have been right with players looking for bounce-backs more often than they have been wrong).
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Old 03-02-2015, 05:47 PM   #4145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
What does a Royals team that wins 90 games look like? Let's play with that thought for a while.

Rotation:
Ventura and Duffy: 3.25 ERA (or less), 1.20 WHIP (or less), 200 IP, 175 K
Vargas and Guthrie: 3.90 ERA (combined), 1.20 WHIP, 400 IP
Volquez: 3.75 ERA, 180 IP

Bullpen:
300 IP, 350 K, sub 2.50 ERA from Holland + Davis + Herrera + Hochevar

Lineup:

Gordon: .280/.350/.450 (20 HR, 40 2B)
Rios: .280/.325/.425 (15 HR, 35 2B, 20 SB)
Cain: .280/.325/.425 (10 HR, 40 2B, 20 SB)
Hosmer: .300/.350/.475 (20-25 HR, 35 2B, 100 RBI)
Morales: .280/.315/.475 (20-25 HR, 100 RBI)
Moustakas: .250/.300/.425 (20-25 HR, 75 RBI)

I don't think very many of this projections are crazy... if they get bounce backs from both Morales and Rios, the offense is going to improve a lot (and honestly, the more time goes on, the more I get an Ervin Santana feel from those guys... those moves take a lot of heat because it is easy to write about and run down, but the Royals have been right with players looking for bounce-backs more often than they have been wrong).
Good take, great minds think alike. I am one of the few probably that think both Rios & Moose will turn it loose this year. I see Cain a .290 with 15 dingers this year and Esky to reach 10 along with Omar around 10 -12.

Offense be damned, bring it on this year!
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Old 03-02-2015, 06:37 PM   #4146
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
What does a Royals team that wins 90 games look like? Let's play with that thought for a while.

Rotation:
Ventura and Duffy: 3.25 ERA (or less), 1.20 WHIP (or less), 200 IP, 175 K
Vargas and Guthrie: 3.90 ERA (combined), 1.20 WHIP, 400 IP
Volquez: 3.75 ERA, 180 IP

Bullpen:
300 IP, 350 K, sub 2.50 ERA from Holland + Davis + Herrera + Hochevar

Lineup:

Gordon: .280/.350/.450 (20 HR, 40 2B)
Rios: .280/.325/.425 (15 HR, 35 2B, 20 SB)
Cain: .280/.325/.425 (10 HR, 40 2B, 20 SB)
Hosmer: .300/.350/.475 (20-25 HR, 35 2B, 100 RBI)
Morales: .280/.315/.475 (20-25 HR, 100 RBI)
Moustakas: .250/.300/.425 (20-25 HR, 75 RBI)

I don't think very many of this projections are crazy... if they get bounce backs from both Morales and Rios, the offense is going to improve a lot (and honestly, the more time goes on, the more I get an Ervin Santana feel from those guys... those moves take a lot of heat because it is easy to write about and run down, but the Royals have been right with players looking for bounce-backs more often than they have been wrong).
This is a big year for Duffy. He needs to go 25-30 starts and throw 150-170 IP and there's no doubt he shoudl be able to so long as he keeps his pitch counts reasonable and the pen gets him out before the 3rd time through the order. If he and Ventura go 350 IP we're in great shape. But if they don't we can't rely on Volquez and Guthrie to replace all the Shields IP.


I like Rios to hit your line above but I have no faith in Morales. The good news is we didn't get all that much from those two spots last year.


Interesting ZIPS text:
Last year’s ZiPS projections for Kansas City suggested that they were particularly well suited to avoiding the awful. While none of their starting batter-types received a forecast in excess of four wins, none of them received a projection below two wins, either. The club was built not to dominate the league, but to remain relevant over the course of a full season.

Per ZiPS, the 2015 iteration of the Royals has more weaknesses than that 2014 edition. No fewer than three of their starting batters — Omar Infante (558 PA, 1.0 WAR), Kendrys Morales (467 PA, 0.5 WAR), and Alex Rios (571 PA, 1.2 WAR) — feature win projections more commonly associated with strong bench players than actual major-league starters.
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Old 03-02-2015, 07:21 PM   #4147
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Has anyone sat in the water fountain seats? Are they actually seats or is it just standing room?
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Old 03-02-2015, 09:00 PM   #4148
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Kris Medlen could add a bunch of value after the trade deadline. We should also see big improvements from 2B offensively and defensively.
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Old 03-02-2015, 09:07 PM   #4149
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Has anyone sat in the water fountain seats? Are they actually seats or is it just standing room?
The fountain seats are actual seats. I like them quite a bit.
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Old 03-02-2015, 11:15 PM   #4150
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 View Post
Everyone is SUPER OVERRATING James Shields and it's not even funny. He is a solid pitcher, don't get me wrong...

but losing him doesn't suddenly mean we're a 4th place team,

It's getting ridiculous. It's like none of these people even watched the Royals last year.
agree
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Old 03-03-2015, 09:47 AM   #4151
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
Lineup:

Gordon: .280/.350/.450 (20 HR, 40 2B)
Rios: .280/.325/.425 (15 HR, 35 2B, 20 SB)
Cain: .280/.325/.425 (10 HR, 40 2B, 20 SB)
Hosmer: .300/.350/.475 (20-25 HR, 35 2B, 100 RBI)
Morales: .280/.315/.475 (20-25 HR, 100 RBI)
Moustakas: .250/.300/.425 (20-25 HR, 75 RBI)

I like those numbers bro.
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Old 03-03-2015, 10:07 AM   #4152
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
What does a Royals team that wins 90 games look like? Let's play with that thought for a while.

Rotation:
Ventura and Duffy: 3.25 ERA (or less), 1.20 WHIP (or less), 200 IP, 175 K
Vargas and Guthrie: 3.90 ERA (combined), 1.20 WHIP, 400 IP
Volquez: 3.75 ERA, 180 IP

Bullpen:
300 IP, 350 K, sub 2.50 ERA from Holland + Davis + Herrera + Hochevar

Lineup:

Gordon: .280/.350/.450 (20 HR, 40 2B)
Rios: .280/.325/.425 (15 HR, 35 2B, 20 SB)
Cain: .280/.325/.425 (10 HR, 40 2B, 20 SB)
Hosmer: .300/.350/.475 (20-25 HR, 35 2B, 100 RBI)
Morales: .280/.315/.475 (20-25 HR, 100 RBI)
Moustakas: .250/.300/.425 (20-25 HR, 75 RBI)

I don't think very many of this projections are crazy... if they get bounce backs from both Morales and Rios, the offense is going to improve a lot (and honestly, the more time goes on, the more I get an Ervin Santana feel from those guys... those moves take a lot of heat because it is easy to write about and run down, but the Royals have been right with players looking for bounce-backs more often than they have been wrong).
What about Escobar, Infante & Perez?
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Old 03-03-2015, 10:15 AM   #4153
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What about Escobar, Infante & Perez?
I didn't include them initially because it seems like I've talked about offensive expectations for them a lot. I also don't think Escobar or Infante are as critical bats as the rest.

Perez CAN be, if he is rested enough. IF they play him into the ground again, his bat is going to suffer.

If he was limited to 130 games and given actual rest - with maybe 10 games as the DH against a lefty ( especially, say, before an off day, which gives him the equivalent of 2 days of rest for his knees and legs... ), I'd see Sal at:

.280/.325/.450, with 15-20 HR. That's a pace he's capable of hitting at, if properly rested (also is right in line with his numbers through June 30).

I think Escobar takes a step back and ends up somewhere 1/2way between his 2013 and 2014 seasons. .270/.320/.375 with great defense and 30 SB would be just fine from him (Andrus-like).

Infante is probably the biggest wildcard. I think he's got a great shot to bounce back, if he's truly healthy now. If he does, .280/.320/.400 seems like a pretty good target, and would be a large upgrade.
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Old 03-03-2015, 10:35 AM   #4154
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Getting fired up for some baseball. Likely going to catch Saturday's game against the Reds or Sunday's against the Angels then going with a friend that has been a Giants ST season ticket holder for 20 years or so with seats right behind home plate Monday 3/23.
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Old 03-03-2015, 03:04 PM   #4155
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Getting fired up for some baseball. Likely going to catch Saturday's game against the Reds or Sunday's against the Angels then going with a friend that has been a Giants ST season ticket holder for 20 years or so with seats right behind home plate Monday 3/23.
I'll be at Saturday's game. Weather looks fantastic! 80 degrees.
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