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Old 11-10-2014, 12:09 AM  
Anyong Bluth Anyong Bluth is offline
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*** Official 2014 AL Champion Royals Off-season Repository ***

So, I didn't see a thread started, and all the others are pretty maxed out to the point where a fresh thread would be needed soon either way.

Time to share the run up to ST & and another memorable year in the making!

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Old 12-18-2014, 07:08 PM   #2671
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Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins View Post
The Medlen signing is really for 2016, but it's a reasonable risk/reward proposition. Volquez is marginally durable, but his real value comes from eating innings. He significantly outperformed his peripherals last year, and with a league change I wouldn't expect much more than 4.50 ERA.

You're likely paying Volquez $12-15 million per WAR based on his career production.
95 starts in the past 3 years is marginally durable?
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Old 12-18-2014, 07:09 PM   #2672
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins View Post
The Medlen signing is really for 2016, but it's a reasonable risk/reward proposition. Volquez is marginally durable, but his real value comes from eating innings. He significantly outperformed his peripherals last year, and with a league change I wouldn't expect much more than 4.50 ERA.

You're likely paying Volquez $12-15 million per WAR based on his career production.
no pitcher that pitches meaningful innings for us next year is going to have an ERA at 4.5 with our defense and our ballpark

and I'll bet you whatever you want to bet

if Volquez pitches more than 140 innings for the Royals next year

his ERA will be 4 or less
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Old 12-18-2014, 07:13 PM   #2673
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Old 12-18-2014, 07:14 PM   #2674
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Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 View Post
no pitcher that pitches meaningful innings for us next year is going to have an ERA at 4.5 with our defense and our ballpark

and I'll bet you whatever you want to bet

if Volquez pitches more than 140 innings for the Royals next year

his ERA will be 4 or less
If he returns to form he could easily be sub 3.50
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Old 12-18-2014, 07:14 PM   #2675
'Hamas' Jenkins 'Hamas' Jenkins is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 View Post
no pitcher that pitches meaningful innings for us next year is going to have an ERA at 4.5 with our defense and our ballpark

and I'll bet you whatever you want to bet

if Volquez pitches more than 140 innings for the Royals next year

his ERA will be 4 or less
31 year old with a career 4.44 ERA and 4.17 xFIP in the NL who has thrown 45 innings as an AL starter a decade ago?

Yeah, I'll take that action.
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Old 12-18-2014, 07:16 PM   #2676
'Hamas' Jenkins 'Hamas' Jenkins is offline
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Originally Posted by 58-4ever View Post
If he returns to form he could easily be sub 3.50
Returns to form? He's had one season over 1.1 WAR in his entire career. James Shields put up more WAR last year than Volquez has cumulatively in his entire career outside of 2009. He was 3.9 in 2009 and he's at a combined 2.6 for the other 850 innings he's pitched, which means that if he gives you 200 IP, you're looking at around .6 WAR.
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Old 12-18-2014, 07:18 PM   #2677
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins View Post
31 year old with a career 4.44 ERA and 4.17 xFIP in the NL who has thrown 45 innings as an AL starter a decade ago?

Yeah, I'll take that action.
Sounds good. You name the bet.
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Old 12-18-2014, 07:18 PM   #2678
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Old 12-18-2014, 07:19 PM   #2679
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins View Post
Returns to form? He's had one season over 1.1 WAR in his entire career. James Shields put up more WAR last year than Volquez has cumulatively in his entire career outside of 2009. He was 3.9 in 2009 and he's at a combined 2.6 for the other 850 innings he's pitched, which means that if he gives you 200 IP, you're looking at around .6 WAR.
58-4ever was confused

He had to be talking about Medlen

Volquez will be good this year. Our defense is that good. Gives pitchers that much extra confidence. All he has to do is throw strikes.
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Old 12-18-2014, 07:27 PM   #2680
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 View Post
58-4ever was confused

He had to be talking about Medlen

Volquez will be good this year. Our defense is that good. Gives pitchers that much extra confidence. All he has to do is throw strikes.
Which is a concern.

Dude needs to eat innings. An ERA from 4.00-4.25 would be a huge win. Expecting sub-4 is unrealistic.
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Old 12-18-2014, 07:27 PM   #2681
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I wouldn't be surprised if he said it now. Hootie said that he proclaimed that a day after the World Series. I just can't fathom an MLB manager naming his opening day starter in November, especially when his staff ace is hitting free agency.
It was within the first week.

My post might have been hard to understand.

He didn't just say it , he said just that.
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Old 12-18-2014, 07:32 PM   #2682
'Hamas' Jenkins 'Hamas' Jenkins is offline
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Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 View Post
Sounds good. You name the bet.
$20 bucks via PayPal. Voided if he pitches fewer than 140 innings due to injury. If he pitches fewer than 140 due to losing his rotation spot and is over 4 you pay up. Only innings as a starter count, so if he is at 3.98 as a starter in 145 IP and then gets torched as a reliever, I pay up. Luck provision: If he puts up an xFIP of over 4.75 but an ERA under 4, the bet is canceled; no one pays up.
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Old 12-18-2014, 07:37 PM   #2683
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I'd lean towards Hamas but with two points: Volq has had a pretty stable FIP of 4.15ish last three years, that's pretty good. Second, we are in need of a 5th starter. We can't really throw Aaron Brooks or a Hendricks type (I know he's gone but you get the idea). 175IP of ~4.30 FIP would def be welcome on our team
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Old 12-18-2014, 07:55 PM   #2684
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after the division champ clinching win I wandered down the first base side, hoping the boys would come out and celebrate with the fans. as they did, I got high 5s from several of the boys, my little gio had to take 3 or 4 leaps to reach my hand. he was the only one who had trouble getting that high.

rest in piece, little buddy.
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Old 12-18-2014, 07:56 PM   #2685
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Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins View Post
$20 bucks via PayPal. Voided if he pitches fewer than 140 innings due to injury. If he pitches fewer than 140 due to losing his rotation spot and is over 4 you pay up. Only innings as a starter count, so if he is at 3.98 as a starter in 145 IP and then gets torched as a reliever, I pay up. Luck provision: If he puts up an xFIP of over 4.75 but an ERA under 4, the bet is canceled; no one pays up.
Hah, thats a very fair, reasonable bet. Complicated though, so you'll need to somehow save these terms somewhere for posterity.

Since you are trying to cover all bases, maybe you can name an impartial arbitrator while you are at it, in case there is any question on the outcome. (possible argument on whether he lost his spot due to ineffectiveness before 140 IP)
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