Would you trade Alex Smith for Colin Kaepernick straight up?

[Alex Smith 4Ever]

I would not. Alex is a better quarterback right now and does not have the off field incidents of Kaepernick

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by Cochise

That game was a microchasm of why QBs like him don't usually succeed in the NFL. In the postseason and against great teams, you have to be able to pass from the pocket and win games.

A lot of people can pile up stats, but there aren't many who can answer the bell in that situation. CK obviously is not one of them.

Laughable.


NFC Championship Game

Largest comeback: 17 points (trailed 17–0; won 28–24), San Francisco 49ers, 2012


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFC_Championship_Game




NFC Championship: Colin Kaepernick Overcomes 17-Point Deficit in Record Win

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...-in-record-win




Falcons vs. 49ers: Colin Kaepernick leads stunning rally to the super bowl

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/stor...k-jim-harbaugh

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by BeeHo

PFF

Sig Stat: Accuracy % Breakdown
Gordon McGuinness | February 12, 2014



Our Accuracy Percentage stat goes beyond your standard quarterback completion percentage, taking into account dropped passes, throw aways, spiked balls, batted passes and passes where the quarterback was hit while attempting to throw.

***** SNIP *****





The Bottom 10

The theme for the Bottom 10 here seems to be inexperience, with most of the players here still fairly young in their careers. Nobody struggled under pressure as much as Buffalo’s backup Thaddeus Lewis, who completed just 40% of his throws when pressure got to him. He’s joined at the bottom by McGloin and Brandon Weeden with both showing why so many doubt their viability as a long-term starters in the league. St. Louis’ Sam Bradford had the fourth-worst mark as we head into yet another offseason where he’s coming off an injury.

Name Team Under Pressure Acc. %
Andy Dalton CIN 56.7%
Jake Locker TEN 56.6%
Andrew Luck IND 56.0%
Geno Smith NYJ 55.5%
Colin Kaepernick SF 55.1%
Matt Schaub HST 55.1%
Sam Bradford STL 53.4%
Brandon Weeden CLV 50.8%
Matthew McGloin OAK 50.0%
Thaddeus Lewis BUF 40.0%


Andrew Luck and Andy Dalton also feature in the Bottom 10, with their up-and-down play leading to six pressured picks apiece. Geno Smith can be spotted once again, with pressure causing him plenty of problems in his rookie year, while veteran Matt Schaub’s inclusion won’t come as a surprise to anyone who saw him during what was as rough a year as he’s had in the league.

That Andrew Luck sure throws an inaccurate pass.

Right?

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by milkman

I'd like to see the game by game break down of Smith's deep pass attempts.

I'd bet that 60+% of his deep balls came in the last 7 games.

I would like to see how many of those deep passes were Jamaal Charles taking a pass behind the line of scrimmage more than 15 yards upfield. I would not be surprised if a fair percentage of Alex's "deep" balls came from Charles behind or within 5 yards of the LOS.

[temper11]

Originally Posted by Kaepernick

I would like to see how many of those deep passes were Jamaal Charles taking a pass behind the line of scrimmage more than 15 yards upfield. I would not be surprised if a fair percentage of Alex's "deep" balls came from Charles behind or within 5 yards of the LOS.

You'd be wrong. Next year, watch the games instead of just that stat book if you want to have an opinion on Smith.

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

And again, one could say the same about Alex Smith. The Colts started their comeback in the midst of a 3-drive swing where we managed 25 yards, a fumble, and had to settle for a FG after the defense got a turnover at the Indy 28 yard line.



Like Alex Smith did.



Absolutely. You're 100% right there. That's why I voted for Alex Smith.

Does anybody here realize that Kaepernick overcame a 17-point deficit to beat the Falcons to get to the super bowl? A record, by the way. The largest comeback in the history of the NFC Championship game.


Does anybody here realize that Kaepernick and the 49ers have twice as many road playoff wins as Joe Montana and Steve Young combined? Or that Kaepernick is the only 49ers Quarterback to win back to back road playoff games?

I am NOT comparing Kaepernick, who is currently a middle tier QB, to Hall of Famers. I am just giving perspective of his elite potential.

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by DTLB58

What? Hasn't the knock on Smith always been his deep ball?

Rypien's games was the deep ball the year they won the SB.

My knock on Alex is that he is too cautious, is too risk averse. That is a far bigger issue than no deep ball.

Alex CAN throw deep passes and has done so. I am sure you've seen them. He is just unwilling to throw deep passes. He craves the sure thing. He hates failure and every incompletion is a failure. So he craves his check downs and short passes.

Fortunately he is a master of the short passing game. Fortunately, Andy Reid likes that. Fortunately Jamaal Charles can break big runs when Alex passes to him behind the line of scrimmage.

It is Alex's cautiousness that is my knock on him, not his deep pass. He would rather take the sure sack than risk a bad play. He would rather hit the open receiver behind the line of scrimmage, than the half-open wide receiver 30 yards downfield.

He manages the game and brilliantly. He is very smart. But you don't usually see the killer instinct you see dwelling in the champions. The ones who would rather hacksaw their cars in half than lose.

I will take Kaepernick's killer instinct any day over Alex's caution.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by Kaepernick

I will take Kaepernick's killer instinct any day over Alex's caution.

Keep enjoying those playoff losses then... I know I won't. Alex has already disposed of the ultra-cautious, though he is right to play smart football. Live for another play and don't force stupid shit when you don't have to. If Kaep could only take some of that mindset while he tries to learn to read defenses.. he may just be a real SB quarterback.

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by Sandy Cheeks

basing the bolded on... a hunch? your gut? just don't feel like he can get even better? Do you feel Smith improved from 2011 to 2012? If so.. why can he not improve further now that he will be further immersed in Reid's system and perhaps an added upgrade at WR?

98 career starts and a cautious nature. How many NFL QBs improved more than marginally after 100 career starts? It is certainly not impossible that Alex has not hit a plateau, but I remain convinced. That is my strong opinion.


Rich Gannon is the only QB I can think of who leaped above his previous plateau after about 100 career starts. He had just about as many starts as Alex does now when he went on a tear with the Raiders and balled out. Became a beast. Rich Gannon is the exeption that proves the rule. It is almost unheard of for an NFL Quarterback to leap in performance after 100 starts.

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...nRi00/gamelog/


Brees did improve and he had about 60 starts and showed elite flashes when he was still in San Diego. They just lost patience with him and were seduced by Phillip Rivers.

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...eDr00/gamelog/

[htismaqe]

To be fair, Rich Gannon was the perfect fit for Gruden's offense. Without that offense, Rich Gannon was a career journeyman and not much more. Sometimes lightning strikes like that.

I'm not the world's biggest Alex Smith fan, but Andy Reid gushes about him like he's the QB he's wanted since he started coaching.

[temper11]

Originally Posted by Kaepernick

98 career starts and a cautious nature. How many NFL QBs improved more than marginally after 100 career starts? It is certainly not impossible that Alex has not hit a plateau, but I remain convinced. That is my strong opinion.


Rich Gannon is the only QB I can think of who leaped above his previous plateau after about 100 career starts. He had just about as many starts as Alex does now when he went on a tear with the Raiders and balled out. Became a beast. Rich Gannon is the exeption that proves the rule. It is almost unheard of for an NFL Quarterback to leap in performance after 100 starts.

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...nRi00/gamelog/


Brees did improve and he had about 60 starts and showed elite flashes when he was still in San Diego. They just lost patience with him and were seduced by Phillip Rivers.

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...eDr00/gamelog/

Of all those QB's show me how many of them played for 4 different HC and what is it now, 9 different OCs?

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by Sandy Cheeks

Keep enjoying those playoff losses then... I know I won't. Alex has already disposed of the ultra-cautious, though he is right to play smart football. Live for another play and don't force stupid shit when you don't have to. If Kaep could only take some of that mindset while he tries to learn to read defenses.. he may just be a real SB quarterback.

I seem to remember Joe Montana losing a playoff game in a KC uniform.

Kaepernick has 30 career starts and is still developing. Like Drew Brees who did not hit his stride until 60 starts, Kaepernick is still developing.

As a general rule, you do not know what you really have with a developing Quarterback before 50 starts. Around 50 starts, you know exactly what you have. Steve Young took more than 50 NFL starts to hit his stride.

If Andy Reid had come to the Chiefs in 2011 and drafted Colin Kaepernick, he would be insane to cut him or bench him today. Flat out insane. He would never do it. He would be thrilled with Kaepernick's progress after only a year and a half starting.

You know it and I know it.

[htismaqe]

And Drew Brees notched a 104.8 QBR in his 4th season in San Diego. Depending on which numbers you look at, statistically it was his 3rd or 4th-best season of his entire career. He's not even really in the discussion.

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

To be fair, Rich Gannon was the perfect fit for Gruden's offense. Without that offense, Rich Gannon was a career journeyman and not much more. Sometimes lightning strikes like that.

I'm not the world's biggest Alex Smith fan, but Andy Reid gushes about him like he's the QB he's wanted since he started coaching.

Which was all I meant. It is rare as hen's teeth for an NFL QB with 100 starts to show significant improvement. It is almost unheard of. Marginal, but nothing significant.

I don't know why Andy loves Alex, but you have to admit, Alex made Jamaal Charles all world last year. Charles is your offense's playmaker, so the more effective that tandem is, the more chance you have to win.

The question is, now that a year of tape is out there on the Alex to Charles connection, will defenses adjust, or will Charles still be able to score 4 receiving TDs in a game where 2 of them come off long runs from passes behind the line of scrimmage.

If Andy can get Alex to stretch the field to the Wide Receivers AT ALL, then this tandem has a good chance to repeat.

I can't find it now, but I read where Alex passing rate to Wide Receivers was 32nd in the league last year. The bottom. Dead last.

He had a low passing rate to WRs with San Francisco also. The tight ends and RBs tend to get above average passing rates from Alex Smith. Team doesn't matter.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Kaepernick

Which was all I meant. It is rare as hen's teeth for an NFL QB with 100 starts to show significant improvement. It is almost unheard of. Marginal, but nothing significant.

Right. My point was that Gannon was the exception to the rule and he was allowed to be that almost SOLELY because of the Gruden/Callahan offense.

The Smith/Reid situation is strikingly similar. What that tells me is that Alex probably has a slightly better chance to strike gold than any old schmoe out there. He's literally in the perfect situation.

Originally Posted by Kaepernick

If Andy can get Alex to stretch the field to the Wide Receivers AT ALL, then this tandem has a good chance to repeat.

There were reports at the time that Reid talked to Alex during the bye week about being a leader and not being so cautious. Told him if he wanted to be a championship QB, he had to press the ball downfield more.

Whether or not it actually happened, I don't know. I do know that the Alex Smith we saw after the bye week threw the ball downfield A LOT more. I mean, the difference was almost immediately visible.

Originally Posted by Kaepernick

I can't find it now, but I read where Alex passing rate to Wide Receivers was 32nd in the league last year. The bottom. Dead last.

Our WRs suck. When the QBs favorite target is Dexter McCluster, you know you have problems. As always, the truth is somewhere in the middle. Alex needs to go downfield more often but the team needs to get him some people to throw to, too...

[splatbass]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Had the refs not called it? The single worst thing a QB can do in that situation, other than turn the ball over, is commit a grounding penalty.

Please, the penalty for grounding is loss of down and 10 yards. The result of getting sacked is....loss of down and the yardage lost, which was what, 8 yards? Intentional grounding in that situation made no real difference at all.