Jones...keep or get a haul?

[Chris Meck]

I'm just going to put this here.

But I see a lot of parallels to the Hill situation. Unquestionably elite player surrounded by JAGs. Potential huge haul in draft capital as well as salary cap relief.

Jones plus whatever dudes isn't getting it done. We won't be drafting in position to properly re-stock LT or DE if we keep him, and we can't afford top of the market replacements.

Maybe we should move him. What kind of haul do you think we could get?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Well, but the Titans traded Brown...and then didn't do anything outside of the draft. That's the problem.

If they'd traded Brown and done even what KC did, they'd have been in better shape-and possibly better shape than with Brown. It's all about what you do with the money and draft capital.

And again, I'm not saying I'm 100% for trading Jones, just that I can see a path to a more talented front four OVERALL, and the money and draft picks could go a long way to fixing the few but important holes we have right now, such as both OT spots.

I really don't want to have to overpay Brown because we couldn't get high enough to replace him in the draft, as well as not be able to afford to improve the front four because we're cash strapped. And it's a very real possibility.

I think the sticking point is that 1)there's the emotional attachment and 2)It's difficult to wrap your head around how losing the one good player up front that we have-but if we replace him with two or possibly three players that produce MORE as a group, it's a win.

Jones is great, but the answer to dealing with Jones is double team him and get the ball out fairly quick because nobody else can win one on one unless you stand around back there forever. It's just reality.

Then go get better players to go around him.

The hill comparison keeps getting thrown around for being pro trade but remember, they were planning to sign hill until the number got out of control.

Unless Jones goes crazy, I’d guess they’d have that budgeted in here

[O.city]

If you keep jones, you need 1,2 maybe 3 things to break in your favor to have a good dl

You trade him, it’s 5 or 6

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Well, but the Titans traded Brown...and then didn't do anything outside of the draft. That's the problem.

That's kinda my point, though.

They went into a rough FA market to try to back-fill for his loss and came away with Robert Woods. If we go into FA to try to replace Chris Jones, that's likely the sort of guy we'd end up with.

Then they tried to replace him with a draft pick. Again - that's probably what we'd try to do.

It's a real similar situation. The Titans didn't do 'nothing' - they tried to get a high-ceiling rookie replacement and a reliable short-term veteran to fill the hole they created. The problem is that it just rarely works out terribly well. If you're lucky, over a 2-3 year timeline you might finally get back to where you were, but that takes luck.

And I'm not willing to step backwards while we still have Travis Kelce out there kicking ass and taking names. We're a contender now. The timing just isn't right to take that kind of risk.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

If you keep jones, you need 1,2 maybe 3 things to break in your favor to have a good dl

You trade him, it’s 5 or 6

I really think you only need 1. 2 if you count retaining Saunders and finding a space-filler like Williams (and those guys are always available).

You need to hit on a viable speed rusher opposite of Karlaftis. Do that and you have, at worst, an average DL.

Would I like an elite DL? More than anything else I could have on the defense. But do I think trading Chris Jones gets us closer to that? Oh hell no. And it gets us further away from having a merely solid one.

[O.city]

If you could send a 3rd to the jets for Carl Lawson knowing you’d have to extend him, would you do it?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

If you could send a 3rd to the jets for Carl Lawson knowing you’d have to extend him, would you do it?

I don't think so, but I wouldn't immediately hang up.

I think he's a better player than Ngakoue with far more upside. But really, he doesn't look like a guy who's recaptured his explosion coming off that injury yet. And you have to question if he ever will.

I mean this year he's kinda looked like Alex Okafor more than a real difference maker. I liked Lawson a lot before he got hurt and a healthy version of him would be a really nice fit here. I just haven't seen anything to this point to think he's that player anymore. And since his whole deal was in salary (no real signing bonus to speak of) he's due a $15 million base salary next year and thus has no real incentive to bargain. I don't see him signing any sort of 'under-valued' deal. He's going to stay on his $15 million or want a premium beyond that figure.

And ultimately, there's a non-zero chance the Jets cut him anyway at that figure. he doesn't have any guarantees left in his deal.

I'd be more intrigued by him as a FA where I can let the market determine his worth and see if it's waters I'm interested in swimming in.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I don't think so, but I wouldn't immediately hang up.

I think he's a better player than Ngakoue with far more upside. But really, he doesn't look like a guy who's recaptured his explosion coming off that injury yet. And you have to question if he ever will.

I mean this year he's kinda looked like Alex Okafor more than a real difference maker. I liked Lawson a lot before he got hurt and a healthy version of him would be a really nice fit here. I just haven't seen anything to this point to think he's that player anymore. And since his whole deal was in salary (no real signing bonus to speak of) he's due a $15 million base salary next year and thus has no real incentive to bargain. I don't see him signing any sort of 'under-valued' deal. He's going to stay on his $15 million or want a premium beyond that figure.

And ultimately, there's a non-zero chance the Jets cut him anyway at that figure. he doesn't have any guarantees left in his deal.

I'd be more intrigued by him as a FA where I can let the market determine his worth and see if it's waters I'm interested in swimming in.

The only way I'd wanna deal a pick is if he were intent on signing a helpful extension. Otherwise, yeah, I'd wait and see.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

The only way I'd wanna deal a pick is if he were intent on signing a helpful extension. Otherwise, yeah, I'd wait and see.

If he wanted to sign a deal that gets him nearer to 3/$36 million - sure, I'd do that. But that's why I said I'd probably prefer he get cut.

Because if you're a guy with Lawson's pedigree and past production who's sitting on a $15 million salary in 2023, why would you accept that kind of contract? I think you'd be better served to get cut and test the market.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Talking about the Titans in the Jags thread and I think I came to a conclusion.

No, Jones isn't the Mahomes of the defense. He's the AJ Brown of the pass defense. He's a guy with elite skills who brings an indispensable element to our pass defense and is the only guy on said defense who provides it.

And even WITH AJ Brown, the Titans passing offense struggled, just as our passing defense struggles with Jones. But the answer wasn't to trade AJ Brown and take the one strength you had in that area and remove it. Because man, if you don't get EVERYTHING right there, it goes from being a weak point to a downright disaster.

The answer for the Titans was to add a complementary talent to Brown - it wasn't to trade him away and pray. Just as the answer to the Jones 'question' isn't to move him - the risk is just FAR too great that you'll end up with a passing defense similar to Tennessee's passing offense. You take the one guy in that unit who can be a genuine game-breaker away from it, and you're working without a net. If you don't make 5 good decisions in response to that, the end result is a greasy smear on the pavement when you fall off the tight rope.

Really good analogy.

[O.city]

I'm more worried that we traded Hill to beef up the defense and it still sucks.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by O.city

I'm more worried that we traded Hill to beef up the defense and it still sucks.

It’s much better than last year

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

I'm more worried that we traded Hill to beef up the defense and it still sucks.

It sucks because the front 4 still can't get pressure without help.

And that's because Veach felt that adding an SDE to one of the worst DL in the league last year and calling it a day was good enough.

Best guess I have is that he saw Belichick had been building his defenses from the back forward for the last several years and tried to duplicate it. Seems like conventional wisdom wins this round over BB because this team simply doesn't have a good enough front 4.

So, while Veach said the DL was a priority last year, it's time that he actually acts on that this off-season.

The !@#$ing Frank Clark blind spot, man. I will simply never understand it.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by RunKC

It’s much better than last year

It has a brighter future, I agree.

Is it better? Ehhhhhhhh.....

The young secondary taking their lumps right now will pay enormous dividends, don't get me wrong. This approach was the right approach. But despite additional raw talent, the results on the field are often much the same.

I think that's largely because the DL hasn't improved to a point sufficient to actually move the needle and because Watson and Williams, while very good for late round rookies, are still maybe average starters. And probably not quite that. And that's not to say they're not good picks because in NO world can you expect average starting caliber play from late round rookies.

But I think Ward was very good last year and Fenton had a career season. The performance we got from those 2 last season, along with Sneed, was just a little better than the performance we're getting from the secondary this year, IMO.

There's just more work to be done here both in terms of talent acquisition and development. The future is bright, IMO - but this defense doesn't seem a ton better than last seasons yet.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by O.city

If you could send a 3rd to the jets for Carl Lawson knowing you’d have to extend him, would you do it?

No. I don't see him as someone that's appreciably better than what is available on the free agent market.

He's also not really the speed guy I'd covet opposite Karlaftis. If I'm not going for speed, I'd just as well want more beef than he provides against the run.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by kccrow

No. I don't see him as someone that's appreciably better than what is available on the free agent market.

He's also not really the speed guy I'd covet opposite Karlaftis. If I'm not going for speed, I'd just as well want more beef than he provides against the run.

The difference between Lawson and what's likely to be available as a FA is that I think Lawson could be better than those guys.

I just don't know how much I'd be willing to gamble on that.

2020 Lawson was a DAMN good player. And it sure looked like the development curve of an emerging top talent. But he got hurt and we've seen too many instances of guys just never fully recapturing their previous skill levels.