Jones...keep or get a haul?

[Chris Meck]

I'm just going to put this here.

But I see a lot of parallels to the Hill situation. Unquestionably elite player surrounded by JAGs. Potential huge haul in draft capital as well as salary cap relief.

Jones plus whatever dudes isn't getting it done. We won't be drafting in position to properly re-stock LT or DE if we keep him, and we can't afford top of the market replacements.

Maybe we should move him. What kind of haul do you think we could get?

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by Oxford

Keep Jones. Danna, Karlaftis. Herring are complimentary DE's. The key to this is Lucas Niang. If he is healthy, and can play at 120% of Andrew Wylie it allows more flexibility to draft DL/OT help.

The chance of getting a pass rushing end at 28 or later is nil. I think a pass rushing interior lineman to pair with Chris Jones and allow the DE's to set the edge is a more feasible approach.

I think you franchise OBjr, tell his agent that if someone will meet the Chiefs price trade him for picks. I just don't see how they can manage the cap with all the contracts coming due

1) I'm beginning to wonder if Andy gives a shit about Niang. You're right, we need to see him, but I don't think we're going to.

2)You're likely also right about #28 or later. And what you CAN get there is a 3 down DT or a RT. These things are doable. Perhaps Chris Jones plus Chris Jones 2 Electric Boogaloo is a decent plan; I do remember Andy saying a couple of years ago that he felt the future of NFL defense was going to be interior rushers, as they're closer to the ball from the start. So yeah, maybe.

3) Unless OBJ tells his dumb-ass newb of an agent to take a hike, I doubt anything gets done on that front. Tag and trade would be ideal, but someone else would have to agree to pay him top of the market, and I just don't see it. I think it's just as likely OBJ doesn't play here or anywhere at all to start next season. He's delusional. I can totally see him sitting at home in September stewing, and maybe taking some calls when guys get injured mid-season until he finally faces reality and takes what's there.

[penguinz]

Jones is the DLine. He is the least expandable player on the Defense.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by penguinz

Jones is the DLine. He is the least expandable player on the Defense.

If only he WERE expandable, we'd be in much better shape.

But that's going to take a LOT of money, and/or higher draft picks than #30ish.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by penguinz

Jones is the DLine. He is the least expandable player on the Defense.

I'm trying to look at this thought process objectively because I'm torn between the two fronts.

Let's assume you're keeping Chris Jones.

Key Decisions:
1. Keep or Lose Orlando Brown Jr. at LT (Yr 1 cap hit probably at least 16m)
2. Keep or Lose JuJu Smith-Schuster at WR (Yr 1 cap hit probably at least 12m)
3. Keep or Lose Andrew Wylie at RT
4. Restructure or Not Pat Mahomes bonus or part (up to 34.9m), so you've just added 7m per for the next 5 if you max out. His cap hits go to 51.3, 53.3, 48.9, 66.9, and 51.4 over those 5 years.

Your base cap space after cutting Frank Clark is 47.99m without re-signing anyone or restructuring.

Here's your free agent list. Keep in mind that the vet min is at least 1.08m for each one that you re-sign to at least a 1-year vet min deal, sans the obvious higher players. If you tender an RFA, that's 2.62m. If you tender an ERFA, that's 870k. You also generally need no less than 8.5m in retained cap to sign your draft class and have enough cap for in-season moves.

Spoiler!

Orlando Brown (UFA)
Andrew Wylie (UFA)
Juan Thornhill (UFA)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (UFA)
Carlos Dunlap (UFA)
Derrick Nnadi (UFA)
Mecole Hardman (UFA)
Brandon Williams (UFA)
Blake Bell (UFA)
Ronald Jones II (UFA)
Geron Christian (UFA)
Tershawn Wharton (RFA)
Nick Allegretti (UFA)
Jerick McKinnon (UFA)
Khalen Saunders (UFA)
Justin Watson (UFA)
Deon Bush (UFA)
Michael Burton (UFA)
Darius Harris (RFA)
Tommy Townsend (RFA)
Jody Fortson (ERFA)
Chris Lammons (UFA)
Chad Henne (UFA)
Prince Tega Wanogho (RFA)
Shane Buechele (ERFA)

Just going off what is likely:
Tagging ERFA's is 1.75, you probably re-sign your punter so he'll hit about 2 you're going to have a FB for 1.3, and let's guess that 4 of this group gets retained around vet min so call it 4.8. You've spent 10m.

This means you have cap space of 29m with up to 63m if you restructure Mahomes.
If you retain both Brown and JuJu, you likely have between 1 and 35m.

This team will likely sign a vet min RB in FA since they almost always do. So, if you're retaining JuJu and Orlando so you can focus on your D-Line you're forced to restructure Mahomes to do anything else, including signing your draft class.

You can probably sign Ngakoue or DreMont Jones or Conklin plus Gaines and Omenihu for that. Not bad in any scenario. What you do with the Ngakoue/Jones/Conklin decision will impact how you approach the draft.

Now, I've already laid out a scenario for trading Jones that doesn't involve restricting Mahomes and it looks to do much of the same thing but also upgrade at LT. A bit of moving Mahomes' money could yield Conklin and more on top of it. You could also get creative after trading Jones by keeping the 15th pick and trading the 31st pick to GB when the tag Yosh Nijman.

[Couch-Potato]

I say let's not let perfect get in the way of great...Keep Jones, JuJu and OBJ at a fair rate...Let Clark, Hardman, and Wylie walk...Our Pass Rush has actually been much better than I think we all expected going into the season so no real fire alarms going off there any longer in my opinion...JJ Watt would be a good fit as a FA signing to replace Clark, or maybe Clowney...Look for DL, RT, DE, WR, RB in the draft but in my scenario there aren't really that many holes to fill and plenty of picks. Maybe even take a stab early at a weapon for Pat.

[dlphg9]

No ****ing way you can get rid of Jones. Jones is one of the rarest guys that you can get. An interior pass rusher that rushes the passer as well as any pass rusher in the league. Interior pass rush is more disruptive than anything else on D and what he does helps more than one person. Since he's getting to the passer, the QB has to get rid of the ball quick, so he helps the guys in coverage. Since he's coming up the middle the QB has a harder time staying up inside the pocket, so the edge rushers should have an easier time with sacks. He also get double teamed almost every play and is still disruptive.

Seriously how many DTs in the history of the NFL have rushed the passer like Chris Jones has? Dude's a ****ing beast and is the best pass rushing DT in football.

You have to sign him to an extension, because if you don't, then next year we could see Pat throw for 70 TDs because our D would be so bad.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

No ****ing way you can get rid of Jones. Jones is one of the rarest guys that you can get. An interior pass rusher that rushes the passer as well as any pass rusher in the league. Interior pass rush is more disruptive than anything else on D and what he does helps more than one person. Since he's getting to the passer, the QB has to get rid of the ball quick, so he helps the guys in coverage. Since he's coming up the middle the QB has a harder time staying up inside the pocket, so the edge rushers should have an easier time with sacks. He also get double teamed almost every play and is still disruptive.

Seriously how many DTs in the history of the NFL have rushed the passer like Chris Jones has? Dude's a ****ing beast and is the best pass rushing DT in football.

You have to sign him to an extension, because if you don't, then next year we could see Pat throw for 70 TDs because our D would be so bad.

You can exchange 'Jones' and 'DT' for 'Hill' and 'WR' and you sound like me last offseason when the idea of moving Hill was brought up.

The question-and what it's proving difficult to even discuss because the emotional gut reaction is to scream-"**** NO!" is whether you can improve at two or three or perhaps even four spots if you DO part with Jones-and does that make your TEAM better?

I get it, I was in the "**** NO!" camp last offseason with moving Hill.

If we're currently the #24 defense in football, that means there are 23 defenses that are better than we are that do not have Chris Jones. So clearly, there are paths to good defense that do not include Jonesy.

If moving Jones gives us a first round pick in range to grab a LT in the first so that we have that position solved and cost controlled for 5 years, that's a big deal. If it frees up enough cash that we can sign a couple or three upgrages on the defensive line, you can field a better front four than Jones plus JAGS.

Now, I'm not saying we NEED to. I'm not even saying that I WANT to. I don't think anyone is, just that it's entirely POSSIBLE that moving Jones could be the best way to acquiring better OVERALL talent that makes the TEAM better-even though you're never replacing Jones on a one-to-one basis.

But if moving Jonesy nets you a 3-to-1 improvement, that's something you have to consider, especially picking around #30 every year.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

You can exchange 'Jones' and 'DT' for 'Hill' and 'WR' and you sound like me last offseason when the idea of moving Hill was brought up.

The question-and what it's proving difficult to even discuss because the emotional gut reaction is to scream-"**** NO!" is whether you can improve at two or three or perhaps even four spots if you DO part with Jones-and does that make your TEAM better?

I get it, I was in the "**** NO!" camp last offseason with moving Hill.

If we're currently the #24 defense in football, that means there are 23 defenses that are better than we are that do not have Chris Jones. So clearly, there are paths to good defense that do not include Jonesy.

If moving Jones gives us a first round pick in range to grab a LT in the first so that we have that position solved and cost controlled for 5 years, that's a big deal. If it frees up enough cash that we can sign a couple or three upgrages on the defensive line, you can field a better front four than Jones plus JAGS.

Now, I'm not saying we NEED to. I'm not even saying that I WANT to. I don't think anyone is, just that it's entirely POSSIBLE that moving Jones could be the best way to acquiring better OVERALL talent that makes the TEAM better-even though you're never replacing Jones on a one-to-one basis.

But if moving Jonesy nets you a 3-to-1 improvement, that's something you have to consider, especially picking around #30 every year.

Or…and hear me out here…you trade a OBJ for a late 3rd and change. Extend Jones but trade a 3rd and next years 2nd (maybe more) to move up for a LT and have a lot of cash open up the next 3 years

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Or…and hear me out here…you trade a OBJ for a late 3rd and change. Extend Jones but trade a 3rd and next years 2nd (maybe more) to move up for a LT and have a lot of cash open up the next 3 years

I seriously doubt those trades are realistic.

Nobody really wants to trade away from top tier first round talent down to late first/early second round talent.

It's too big of a perceived drop-off.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

You can exchange 'Jones' and 'DT' for 'Hill' and 'WR' and you sound like me last offseason when the idea of moving Hill was brought up.

The question-and what it's proving difficult to even discuss because the emotional gut reaction is to scream-"**** NO!" is whether you can improve at two or three or perhaps even four spots if you DO part with Jones-and does that make your TEAM better?

I get it, I was in the "**** NO!" camp last offseason with moving Hill.

If we're currently the #24 defense in football, that means there are 23 defenses that are better than we are that do not have Chris Jones. So clearly, there are paths to good defense that do not include Jonesy.

If moving Jones gives us a first round pick in range to grab a LT in the first so that we have that position solved and cost controlled for 5 years, that's a big deal. If it frees up enough cash that we can sign a couple or three upgrages on the defensive line, you can field a better front four than Jones plus JAGS.

Now, I'm not saying we NEED to. I'm not even saying that I WANT to. I don't think anyone is, just that it's entirely POSSIBLE that moving Jones could be the best way to acquiring better OVERALL talent that makes the TEAM better-even though you're never replacing Jones on a one-to-one basis.

But if moving Jonesy nets you a 3-to-1 improvement, that's something you have to consider, especially picking around #30 every year.

There's one huge difference between Hill and Jones. Hill was playing with the greatest QB of all time and while he was a unicorn he wasn't the person that made the offense go. Jones is our D's Patrick Mahomes. When a play needs made and our D needs a huge stop, then he's the one that most likely makes that huge play. Either by batting a ball down at the line, making a sack, or getting enough pressure to force a bad throw. He's done it so many times this year.

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I'd love to see them go get a top flight DE but the need at OT is just too great. I think they gotta do that first.

I'd throw all the resources at defensive line and offensive tackle this offseason. Draft, free agency, trades....whatever it takes. I'm actually happy with the roster outside of those positions, minus maybe running back and safety, but those two are down the list from getting the proper fatties in here.

And, under no circumstances do you trade Jones outside of some insane Hershell Walker/Ricky Williams type of haul. Someone hit it earlier - we could let Hill go because Mahomes is just THAT good of a QB and can make up for Hill's loss (and has), but there is no Mahomes on the d-line (or the defense for that matter) to cover the loss of Jones.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

There's one huge difference between Hill and Jones. Hill was playing with the greatest QB of all time and while he was a unicorn he wasn't the person that made the offense go. Jones is our D's Patrick Mahomes. When a play needs made and our D needs a huge stop, then he's the one that most likely makes that huge play. Either by batting a ball down at the line, making a sack, or getting enough pressure to force a bad throw. He's done it so many times this year.

Except no, he's not the Mahomes of the defense. He can be neutralized, and the rest of the line cannot take advantage.

He's a star, absolutely. But he's a star that cannot/does not take over games and will the defense to a win.

It just doesn't really happen. It's not fair to expect it, honestly.

He's a great player, but if his cap number makes it impossible to improve the other two spots as well as our OT situation, then we should consider moving him while he's at his peak.

It's emotionally difficult, but might be really smart.

Not saying I'm 100% on board, I'm just saying it MIGHT be a really smart thing to do, depending on the return.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Except no, he's not the Mahomes of the defense. He can be neutralized, and the rest of the line cannot take advantage.

He's a star, absolutely. But he's a star that cannot/does not take over games and will the defense to a win.

It just doesn't really happen. It's not fair to expect it, honestly.

He's a great player, but if his cap number makes it impossible to improve the other two spots as well as our OT situation, then we should consider moving him while he's at his peak.

It's emotionally difficult, but might be really smart.

Not saying I'm 100% on board, I'm just saying it MIGHT be a really smart thing to do, depending on the return.

Talking about the Titans in the Jags thread and I think I came to a conclusion.

No, Jones isn't the Mahomes of the defense. He's the AJ Brown of the pass defense. He's a guy with elite skills who brings an indispensable element to our pass defense and is the only guy on said defense who provides it.

And even WITH AJ Brown, the Titans passing offense struggled, just as our passing defense struggles with Jones. But the answer wasn't to trade AJ Brown and take the one strength you had in that area and remove it. Because man, if you don't get EVERYTHING right there, it goes from being a weak point to a downright disaster.

The answer for the Titans was to add a complementary talent to Brown - it wasn't to trade him away and pray. Just as the answer to the Jones 'question' isn't to move him - the risk is just FAR too great that you'll end up with a passing defense similar to Tennessee's passing offense. You take the one guy in that unit who can be a genuine game-breaker away from it, and you're working without a net. If you don't make 5 good decisions in response to that, the end result is a greasy smear on the pavement when you fall off the tight rope.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Talking about the Titans in the Jags thread and I think I came to a conclusion.

No, Jones isn't the Mahomes of the defense. He's the AJ Brown of the pass defense. He's a guy with elite skills who brings an indispensable element to our pass defense and is the only guy on said defense who provides it.

And even WITH AJ Brown, the Titans passing offense struggled, just as our passing defense struggles with Jones. But the answer wasn't to trade AJ Brown and take the one strength you had in that area and remove it. Because man, if you don't get EVERYTHING right there, it goes from being a weak point to a downright disaster.

The answer for the Titans was to add a complementary talent to Brown - it wasn't to trade him away and pray. Just as the answer to the Jones 'question' isn't to move him - the risk is just FAR too great that you'll end up with a passing defense similar to Tennessee's passing offense. You take the one guy in that unit who can be a genuine game-breaker away from it, and you're working without a net. If you don't make 5 good decisions in response to that, the end result is a greasy smear on the pavement when you fall off the tight rope.

Well, but the Titans traded Brown...and then didn't do anything outside of the draft. That's the problem.

If they'd traded Brown and done even what KC did, they'd have been in better shape-and possibly better shape than with Brown. It's all about what you do with the money and draft capital.

And again, I'm not saying I'm 100% for trading Jones, just that I can see a path to a more talented front four OVERALL, and the money and draft picks could go a long way to fixing the few but important holes we have right now, such as both OT spots.

I really don't want to have to overpay Brown because we couldn't get high enough to replace him in the draft, as well as not be able to afford to improve the front four because we're cash strapped. And it's a very real possibility.

I think the sticking point is that 1)there's the emotional attachment and 2)It's difficult to wrap your head around how losing the one good player up front that we have-but if we replace him with two or possibly three players that produce MORE as a group, it's a win.

Jones is great, but the answer to dealing with Jones is double team him and get the ball out fairly quick because nobody else can win one on one unless you stand around back there forever. It's just reality.

[Stryker]

I do not have the answer for that decision but, I do know this... We need to revamp this D big time. As long as the Bengals are in the mix we will continue to be OWNED by them. We need a SERIOUS upgrade on the defense to be competitive versus our adversaries.