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04-17-2019, 08:42 AM
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#2 | |
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Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
Casino cash: $2759099
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Quote:
But the best way to determine a prospects overall 'prospect value' is to effectively multiply his ceiling by his odds of getting there; helps you factor in the floor. So someone like Sills has a much lower ceiling and yes, Williams is 'better' than him in a vacuum. But Sills is way more likely to hit his and therefore probably a better pure prospect. Unless you're just willing to overlook the bust potential and draft strictly for upside. I would say the only way you do that is if you're set at a position for the foreseeable future. With Robinson and Hill being FAs next season and Watkins being a potential cap casualty, I don't think that's the case here. Floor needs to be considered in our pick. When you look at his bust potential and the depth of the 'flawed' WR prospects, you can make a pretty easy argument that he could fall anywhere from 25-40 among the WRs. His ceiling is immense, no doubt. But his floor is a guy who could get cut out of camp. That needs to be considered in valuing him.
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