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01-15-2019, 05:01 PM | #1 |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
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Okay, looks like I've figured it out and messed w/ '18 for a single season of review.
In 2018 there were 84 UDFA rookies who graded out in AV (Pro football reference's composite measurement). They totalled 159 'points' and were led by...well of course you guessed it....Andrew Wylie and his 8. It's not a perfect analysis because Wylie was a rookie but was technically eligible for the 2017 draft. But in either event, he was a UDFA who went undrafted and thus could've been on anyone's roster. In the 6th and 7th rounds there were 38 rookies who 'scored' and they totaled 67 'points'. If I include the 5th round that's another 29 scoring rookies and 52 points. So from the 2018 draft there were 67 rookies taken in rounds 5-7 who 'scored' via the AV system. They contributed a total of 119 points. The UDFAs absolutely wreck those numbers. Seriously, teams wildly under-utilize the UDFA pool and in so doing overvalue their picks in the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds. Punt those picks, use them to move up in the other rounds and simply take those roster spots and allocate them to the 'winners' of the an annual roster competition among a larger pool of UDFA players. Here's the little stat machine that can figure this out if you want to do it over a number of years. https://www.pro-football-reference.c...psl_finder.cgi
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"If there's a god, he's laughing at us.....and our football team..." "When you look at something through rose colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags." |
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01-16-2019, 06:26 PM | #2 | |
Now you've pissed me off!
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That means your late round picks are 3.5 times more likely to provide value than an UDFA. That is definitely not worth punting on.
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"When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read 'all men are created equal, except negroes, and foreigners, and Catholics.' When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty – to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocrisy.”--Abraham Lincoln |
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01-16-2019, 06:55 PM | #3 | ||
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But yeah, that thread I posted about paying dudes top tier contracts was ****ing eye opening. There are a ****load of dudes making WAAAAAY too much money. I still contend you need to look at it as production per unit salary cap. Ford is making a case. He's stayed healthy all year. Quote:
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01-17-2019, 09:25 AM | #4 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
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It's not that they're more likely to hit but rather that they're easier to throw numbers at. You can take your 3 picks in the 5th, 6th and 7th if you want. I'll take those 3 picks, bundle them into a 4th rounder (roughly equal 'draft chart value') and then use the remaining roster spots and practice time to go get UDFA's and sift through that pile to find someone that can be just as productive. My 4th rounder and spare UDFAs is going to be more likely to contribute than your 5-6-7 rounders IF I'm willing to do the spadework of sifting through that pile and finding someone. And I know that's more difficult than ever given the limits on practice time but I think that's an area where an experienced, excellent coaching staff can be further leveraged to a team's advantage. I think our staff can/should be better at finding the gems in those pools than most and with that being the case, I think we should be more aggressive in pursuing those kinds of guys.
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"If there's a god, he's laughing at us.....and our football team..." "When you look at something through rose colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags." |
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01-17-2019, 08:07 PM | #5 | |
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01-18-2019, 08:07 AM | #6 |
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