2018 STL Cardinals Thread

[BigRedChief]

Opening day lineup

Fowler RF
Pham CF
Carpenter 3B
Ozuna LF
Martinez 1B
Molina C
Dejong SS
Wong 2B
Pitcher

Edit:
Matheny fired 07/14/2018




Opening Day Roster

Spoiler!

St. Louis has opted to carry 12 position players and 13 pitchers to begin the new season, with a four-man bench and eight-man bullpen.

Outfielders:
Dexter Fowler
Tommy Pham
Marcell Ozuna

Infielders:
Matt Carpenter
Paul DeJong
Kolten Wong

Catchers:
Yadier Molina
Francisco Pena

Utility:
Jose Martinez
Greg Garcia
Yairo Munoz
Jedd Gyrko

Starters:
Carlos Martinez
Michael Wacha
Luke Weaver
Miles Mikolas
Jack Flaherty

Relievers:
Dominic Leone
Tyler Lyons
Bud Norris
Brett Cecil
Sam Tuivailala
Matt Bowman
Jordan Hicks
Mike Mayers

On the DL:
Adam Wainwright
Luke Gregerson

[O.city]

So should I hold my breath on Harper or?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

So should I hold my breath on Harper or?

Do you like diminished cognitive function?

I mean if you do - knock yourself out. But depriving the brain of oxygen for the...uh...infinity days it'll take here is gonna take some starch out of the dental practice.

Well, I mean, maybe not. Y'all are pretty much just Humperdoo jabbing around with hooks and shit so you'll probably still be okay. But I can't make any promises.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Miller has been DFA'd.

Hudson/Kelly for Goldy is a monumental rape job. I have no particular use for either player but you're trading 2 guys with about $40 million in surplus value between them given the amount of control they have for 1 season of Goldschmidt and maybe $15 million in surplus value.

That would be an AWFUL trade and yet the media in St. Louis would lap it up and sell it to the 'casual fans'.

So, y'know, about 80% likely to happen.

you don’t like Hudson/Kelly trade then you’d better not read the latest rumors.... going to be more than that if true.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

you don’t like Hudson/Kelly trade then you’d better not read the latest rumors.... going to be more than that if true.

Of course it will be.

Our GM is reeruned.

[BigRedChief]

DJ, the Mets want a catcher badly. Can we get some bullpen help from them for Kelly if he doesn’t go in the Goldy trade? They have anything on the menu we’d like?

[BigRedChief]

And why haven’t we traded Jose yet to an AL team? Surely there is one team that can spare sone mid level bullpen arm for a solid .300 DH?

[bdj23]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Corbin to the Gnats at 6/$140.

Wanna know why I'd pay $35 million for Harper without batting an eye? Because we live in a world where Patrick Corbin, 1 season removed from being a 4th starter, is earning $23 million/season through his age 34 season.

Patrick Corbin and a couple of 'established' middle relievers will cost roughly what Harper costs. Screw that; sign Harper, develop your relievers and get the superstar instead of a guy you wouldn't be comfortable handing the ball in game 1 or 2 of a playoff series.

I think you could run this team in a better direction than Mo and Girsch, and i'm not even being a smartass.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Of course it will be.

Our GM is reeruned.

You have said yourself that Kelly profiles only as a backup and has been passed by Knizer, and I think it's fair to say that Hudson's peripherals suggest he's more Joe Kelly as a starter than Jack Flaherty. These are the kinds of soon-to-depreciate assets you extract value from before they turn in to Zach Cox.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

You have said yourself that Kelly profiles only as a backup and has been passed by Knizer, and I think it's fair to say that Hudson's peripherals suggest he's more Joe Kelly as a starter than Jack Flaherty. These are the kinds of soon-to-depreciate assets you extract value from before they turn in to Zach Cox.

I've compared Kelly to Tucker Barnhardt for a long time. I think he'll be a solid starter for somebody but I prefer Knizner. However, he rehabbed his prospect status in AAA and his floor is almost certainly higher than Knizner. I don't think it's out of bounds to say both guys have roughly equal value.

And I dont trust Hudson either - I dont do pitchers with no fastball command. But he is a high pedigree pitcher with a big time season at AAA, 6 years of control and undeniable big league stuff. You cite Joe Kelly, but Kelly is going to get PAID this offseason.

Again, you're talking $40 million in surplus value on those 2 guys based on a reasonable growth model. That's 2 to 3 times what the Cardinals are getting back. And in so doing they're forcing Carpenter to 3b which WILL ruin his shoulder (that joint is clearly compromised). Their silver bullet that they've been waiting 5 years to fire will be a long term contract for an aging slugger that displaces the only other pure hitter they have.

And they'll still be a 90 win team in an environment where the Cubs win 95 despite virtually everything going wrong for them last year.

Our idiot GM will give $40 million in surplus value for an aging slugger who broke out years ago and is approaching FA. A SMART GM would take that package and go hunting for the guy that hasn't broken out yet but is showing signs. He'd use it to get Camargo and then use the freed up money to sign someone who ISNT a 1b and actually fits here.

I agree with trading Hudson and Kelly. I damn sure wouldn't trade them for THAT.

[DJ's left nut]

Okay, so look at what the Cardinals gave up for 2 years of Ozuna. They gave away 1 premier(ish) prospect in Alcantara and then scraps. Sierra has some nominal value, Gallen and whats his ass (Castellano or something?) have none.

Ozuna was coming off an MVP caliber season, a silver slugger and a gold glove. He also played a position further up on the defensive spectrum (though admittedly not a ton so). He was, by any reasonable calculus, a more valuable trade commodity with 2 years of control than Goldschmidt is with 1.

Ultimately you've got an easy trade comp here.

Alcantara ~= Hudson
Sierra ~= Adolis Garcia
Gallen ~= Woodford
4th guy ~= Who gives a shit?

And again - that's for a MORE valuable asset than 1 season of Paul Goldschmidt.

Seriously, if we give up more than Hudson and scraps, we will have gotten butt****ed in this deal. And Goold is reporting that the Cardinals are seeking a 72 hour window to reach an extension which just shows their hand. It means they aren't even doing the one thing that MIGHT make this intelligent; using Goldschmidt to lure Harper and then cutting him loose as he ages.

Nope - these stupid bastards are going to sign Goldschmidt, move Carpenter to 3b, manage to make themselves older and WORSE defensively and then go sign some overpriced reliever (again) and call themselves contenders.

They don't even try to hide it anymore. Their target is 88-90 wins and they're clearly not going to make any bold moves to get beyond that.

This organization just doesn't have the stones to win a championship anymore. The Cubs have money and aren't run by idiots. Likewise the Dodgers. The Phillies may still be run by idiots but there's money and then there's MONEY. The Phillies have the latter. The Braves have arguably the deepest pool of young talent I've seen in decades. The Nationals even have a rich owner who doesn't care how rich he is when he dies so they'll keep throwing money at things.

Hell, the BREWERS have passed us. And nobody in this franchise wants to do anything apart from sign an aging righthanded hitter so they can displace the one legitimate quality hitter we have on this team. Really looking forward to them all acting surprised when Carpenter's arm is hurting.

This team is just so shockingly stupid.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

What you also have to consider is that Harper's camp isn't working with asymmetric information. If the Cardinals trade for Goldschmidt and they don't extend him, my first question is, "How are you going to replace Ozuna and Goldschmidt?

If they extend one or both, it would show his camp that they are serious about keeping stars around him. If they don't and I'm Harper, I'm wondering if I'm going to be stuck on a team with no other top tier bats by 2020.

Also, Joe Kelly getting paid isn't an endorsement of his talent but and indictment of the same kind of backwards thinking that leads to huge overpays for marginal middle relievers, like Brett Cecil.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

What you also have to consider is that Harper's camp isn't working with asymmetric information. If the Cardinals trade for Goldschmidt and they don't extend him, my first question is, "How are you going to replace Ozuna and Goldschmidt?

If they extend one or both, it would show his camp that they are serious about keeping stars around him. If they don't and I'm Harper, I'm wondering if I'm going to be stuck on a team with no other top tier bats by 2020.

Also, Joe Kelly getting paid isn't an endorsement of his talent but and indictment of the same kind of backwards thinking that leads to huge overpays for marginal middle relievers, like Brett Cecil.

That's all well and good, but Harper's camp can't really think that both Harper and Goldschmidt at a combined $60-$65 milliion/season are going to be long-term Cardinals, can they?

They have to know that if Harper's there long-term, Goldschmidt isn't. They might be willing to extend Harper and Ozuna given the relative youth of Ozuna and the fact that he wouldn't seem to block guys like Gorman or Montero (one of 'em, if not both, will end up at 1b). But if they sign Harper to a long-term deal, they won't be extending Goldschmidt.

So the inverse becomes pretty apparent at that point - if they're talking about extending Goldschmidt, the lip service about signing Harper is just more of the same old half-hearted efforts to look like you were trying.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

I think that were both in agreement that the Cardinals aren't serious about signing Harper.

However, I do think you are overstating the surplus value that Kelly and Hudson are worth by extrapolating open market WAR onto what their actual value to the team is. If you use Joe Kelly as a comp for Hudson, you're looking at 5 WAR, but distributed over 7 seasons. If you're the Cardinals and the one thing you can do is develop pitchers, those wins aren't all that valuable because you have so many other people that can do the same thing. It's why Jose Martinez isn't that valuable of a trade asset. Yeah, he's worth about $20 million in annual surplus value if you just look at his WAR, but if you analyze his actual skillset against what other teams have and need, he's not providing much value at all. Pretty much all AL teams that are buyers have someone that can put up 120-125 wRC from the DH spot. That's what CJ Cron did last year. Is he worth much of anything?

Similarly, guys like Barnhart, who have been worth about 1 win per season on average never have values on the open market that are actually reflected in what they are paid. When Kurt Suzuki get can 2/10 (despite his age, yes) off of two seasons of 2.3 WAR on average, what is someone half as valuable on a WAR basis going to actually get?

I think it's time we stopped looking at WAR as linear and think of it as exponential. While the average may be $8 million/win, I think the actual "surplus" value is provided in the realm above 4 wins, and each win above that becomes progressively more valuable, especially since the number of spots on a roster and field are limited. That's why the smart teams have moved to a stars and scrubs model rather than the 25 guys worth 2 WAR that the Cardinals seem to shoot for. Because of that, I don't see the real value provided by guys like Hudson + Kelly compared to a Goldschmidt. In fact, I'd go as far to say that 5 WAR provided by Goldschmidt in one year would be worth more than 7-8 provided by Hudson + Kelly over the lives of their contracts precisely because it elevates you above a threshold.

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

Cards r close to getting Goldy

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 5, 2018

[O.city]

Yay!!!