Chiefs open as 3 point favorite vs the Patriots

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Bowser

So Vegas thinks it's an even match, essentially

Yep. 3 points for being at home.

Sunday is going to be epic.

[CupidStunt]

Originally Posted by TLO

Yep. 3 points for being at home.

Sunday is going to be epic.

It's not as simple as this. I hate the "3 points for being at home" rhetoric. Is the Chiefs' HFA the same as the Chargers' or some other pathetic team?

It's a good, oversimplified general rule, of course. But Vegas' only goal is to balance the line. I read a piece from a super-reliable source that explained it like this: Vegas knows the public is going to pound NE #cuzBrady. They opened at -3 instead of -6 for that reason, and even as the money comes in on NE, they're not going to reduce the line to -2 or -1 because they don't want a ton of money then going on KC.

Last week, the Colts were getting most of the money at +5 and +5.5 but Vegas didn't push it DOWN to +4.5 or +4 because they thought KC would win and they didn't want a sharp bettor coming in hot on KC at an even better price.

It didn't help them because the sharps still hit KC. Look at the guy who came in with $1,200,000 on the Chiefs at -5 and -5.5.

[LGOLED]

Originally Posted by CupidStunt

It's not as simple as this. I hate the "3 points for being at home" rhetoric. Is the Chiefs' HFA the same as the Chargers' or some other pathetic team?

It's a good, oversimplified general rule, of course. But Vegas' only goal is to balance the line. I read a piece from a super-reliable source that explained it like this: Vegas knows the public is going to pound NE #cuzBrady. They opened at -3 instead of -6 for that reason, and even as the money comes in on NE, they're not going to reduce the line to -2 or -1 because they don't want a ton of money then going on KC.

Last week, the Colts were getting most of the money at +5 and +5.5 but Vegas didn't push it DOWN to +4.5 or +4 because they thought KC would win and they didn't want a sharp bettor coming in hot on KC at an even better price.

It didn't help them because the sharps still hit KC. Look at the guy who came in with $1,200,000 on the Chiefs at -5 and -5.5.

Your source sounds very uninformed, and quite frankly, made up.

Both the casuals and sharps were pounding the Chargers all week long. The casuals have been off of our bandwagon for a while now, because like many idiots, they bought into the narrative that we were done.

How did that work out?

[TLO]

Originally Posted by CupidStunt

It's not as simple as this. I hate the "3 points for being at home" rhetoric. Is the Chiefs' HFA the same as the Chargers' or some other pathetic team?

It's a good, oversimplified general rule, of course. But Vegas' only goal is to balance the line. I read a piece from a super-reliable source that explained it like this: Vegas knows the public is going to pound NE #cuzBrady. They opened at -3 instead of -6 for that reason, and even as the money comes in on NE, they're not going to reduce the line to -2 or -1 because they don't want a ton of money then going on KC.

Last week, the Colts were getting most of the money at +5 and +5.5 but Vegas didn't push it DOWN to +4.5 or +4 because they thought KC would win and they didn't want a sharp bettor coming in hot on KC at an even better price.

It didn't help them because the sharps still hit KC. Look at the guy who came in with $1,200,000 on the Chiefs at -5 and -5.5.

I appreciate the information. I don't actually bet on sports, I just find it interesting to follow the Vegas lines.