Mock 11/23/19

[kccrow]

More pretend fun...

Moves
Chiefs trade WR Sammy Watkins to Arizona for a 2020 4th round pick and conditional 4th round pick in 2021. If Emmanuel Sanders and a 5th can get a 3rd and 4th round return, I think a younger Watkins has decent value. The Cards will need a receiver and Watkins' cap space is needed in KC.

Chiefs franchise, then trade DT Chris Jones to Miami for their 2nd round pick in 2020, their 3rd round pick in 2021 and CB Cordrea Tankersley. I don't think KC will get as much for Jones as they probably deserve so it'll be a bit of give and take. The Chiefs gave me some confidence in trading Jones when he was out. I think they can pry away Tankersley in a trade with Miami given he was benched before tearing his ACL last year and now is finally coming back. He showed promise as a rookie and Veach likes reclamation projects.

Chiefs cut OT Cam Erving, SS Daniel Sorensen, P Dustin Colquitt

Chiefs sign the following free agents:
DT A'Shawn Robinson (DET) to a 5-year, $57.5 million deal (mirrors Star Lotuleilei's but time adjusted) with $21.0 million guaranteed and a $15 million signing bonus. Estimated 2020 salary is $7.75 million. Robinson doesn't have the pass rush prowess of Jones, but he's a better run defender and can still get some pressure. The plus is Robinson should be much cheaper than Jones and at the same time shore up the leaky run defense.

OL Graham Glasgow (DET) to a 4-year, $28.0 million deal (similar to Billy Turner and Zach Fulton) with $9.0 million signing bonus and approximate year 1 salary of $6.0 million. Glasgow isn't an All-Pro caliber player but he's rock-solid everywhere he lines up (all 3 interior spots).

DB Jimmy Ward (SF) to a 1-year, $2.0 million deal with $1.0 million guaranteed. Ward is a bit of a Swiss Army knife but his problem is getting knicked up. He's a solid nickel when healthy and that usually means limiting his snaps. He should come at a discount.

SS Darian Thompson (DAL) to a 1-year, $1.5 million deal with $500k guarannteed. Thompson is a solid reserve safety that does a good job coming down in run support.

Chiefs re-sign/extend the following players:
QB Patrick Mahomes - Exercise 5th-year option, then sign him to a 4-year extension for $152 million with $67 million guaranteed and a $27.5 million signing bonus and $33.0 million 2021 option bonus. Estimated 2020 salary is $8.76 million (+3.5 million). (Underlined for emphasis for Direkshun. )

CB Bashaud Breeland - Re-sign to 3-year $30.0 million deal (similar to Logan Ryan and Prince Amukamara) with $11.5 million guaranteed and a $4.5 million signing bonus and a $3.0 million roster bonus that guarantees the 5th day of the 2021 league year. Estimated 2020 salary is $8.50 million.

DE Emmanuel Ogbah - Re-sign to a 3-year $18.0 million deal (mirrors Alex Okafor's deal) with a $6.0 million bonus.

WR Demarcus Robinson - Re-sign to a 2-year $5.0 million deal (similar to Chris Conley deal) with a $1.0 million bonus and estimated 1st year of $2.3 million

Chiefs ERFA tender TE Deon Yelder, LG Andrew Wylie, WR Marcus Kemp
Chiefs sign to minimum deals QB Matt Moore, S Jordan Lucas, DT Mike Pennel

Deals, after the rollover, leave Chiefs at approximately $6.5 million in cap space.

Draft

1. CB Bryce Hall, Virginia (6'1" 200)
The Chiefs have lacked a blue-chip corner since they shipped off Marcus Peters (not such a bad decision in retrospect) and should at least find a guy that strikes some fear into a opponents. Hall is a big, fluid corner with outstanding awareness and ball skills as well as solid tackling ability, but lacks the elite top-end speed to be a top-10 pick.

2 (f/MIA). RB J.K. Dobbins, Ohio State (5'10" 215)
The Chiefs should very well take note from the Packers on how to help your superstar QB and that's by showing a re-committment to running the football. Dobbins is a do-it-all back with the power to plow through the interior, the speed to take it outside, breakaway ability, amazing balance, and is a good receiver and pass blocker to boot. Dobbins is as good of an all-around back as you'll find in this draft.

2 (f/SF). DE Kenny Willekes, Michigan State (6'4" 260)
The Chiefs pass rush has been a bit lackluster with Frank Clark underperforming and the injury to Emmanuel Ogbah. Frank Okafor has been a disappointment and Kpass is a spot contributor, so the Chiefs just need more juice. Willekes is a bit undersized (with room to fill out), but he makes up for it with great quickness, play recognition, and hand usage. He reminds me alot of Yannick Ngakoue, who has been productive in Jacksonville's scheme and has developed alot more upper body strength since coming into the league.

3. LB Zack Baun, Wisconsin (6'3" 240)
The Chiefs lack depth and starting ability at linebacker so they need to do something to address it moving forward. Baun reminds me a bunch of Joe Schobert in that he doesn't quite have the size nor power to play the edge in the NFL but he has outstanding lateral agility, a good backpedal, plays good fundamental football and is extremely adept in zone coverage. Once again I find myself touting a tweener Wisconsin linebacker to convert.

4. (f/ARZ). TE Harrison Bryant, Florida Atlantic (6'6" 240)
The Chiefs' stable of tight ends behind Kelce is problematic with Blake Bell and Deon Yelder only each having 3 catches to this point in the season (Yikes!). While I really like Brycen Hopkins, there is some chatter out there about him being a potential 1st rounder or at least a high 2nd rounder. I don't know that the Chiefs can afford to invest that heavily in a guy to sit behind Kelce. I like Bryant quite a bit but he's thin. He runs well, he finds soft spots in zones, and he gives great effort as a blocker most of the time. He just needs to add about 25 pounds to his frame.

4. WR Kalija Lipscomb, Vanderbilt (6'1" 200)
The Chiefs probably need to trade Watkins and bringing back Robinson could be a matter of price (although I have him coming back cheap). Lipscomb has good speed and quickness, runs good routes to gain separation, has solid size and has reliable hands but needs to eliminate the stutter step at the start of his route. That said, Lipscomb has been productive with a terrible QB. The Chiefs continue rebuilding at receiver, piggy-backing off of drafting Hardman last year.

5. OL Matt Peart, UConn (6'5" 300)
The Chiefs could use a swing tackle and Peart looks the part with his athleticism. He also has the ability to swing inside to guard where he has experience, but may need some strength development.

QB: Mahomes, Moore, Shurmur
RB: Dobbins, Williams, Williams, Thompson
FB: Lovett
WR: Hill, Hardman, Robinson, Pringle, Lipscomb, Thompson
TE: Kelce, Bryant, Yelder
OL: Fisher, Rankins, Glasgow, Duvernay-Tardif, Schwartz, Reiter, Wylie, Allegretti, Peart
DE: Clark, Okafor, Ogbah, Kpassagnon, Willekes
DT: Robinson, Nnadi, Saunders, Pennel, Speaks
LB: Wilson, Hitchens, Baun, Niemann, O'Daniel
CB: Breeland, Hall, Ward, Tankersley, Ward, Fenton
S: Mathieu, Thornhill, Thompson, Watts, Lucas
ST: Butker, Some UDFA Punter, Winchester

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I've mentioned Warner as the kind of guy we should've stumbled onto at least once over the last decade if we had just TRIED.

The problem is how little effort we've put into the off-ball linebacker spot. The team post-Carl has treated ILB/MLB like Carl treated QBs. And to nobody's surprise, it's not going well.

Yep.

A few 2nds, and a 3rd here or there and maybe you've got someone.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

Yep.

A few 2nds, and a 3rd here or there and maybe you've got someone.

Just look at this shit:

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...postcount=1496

Spoiler!

Well you run into the same problem we run into when asking why Dorsey didn't draft more difference makers on defense - priority.

I mean...we haven't really tried.

Lets look at all the capital spent on off-ball LBs since DJ (I assume you're not including Hali, Houston or Ford in this and mean strictly off-ball guys not edge players):

2006: None
2007: None
2008: None
2009: None

So right away we have a 4 year stretch where we put literally NOTHING at the position. Not even a 7th round pick.

2010: Maybe you squint and say Cameron Sheffield at pick 142; a converted DE.
2011: Gabe Miller - pick 140
2012: None
2013: Nico Johnson - pick 99
2014: None
2015: Ramik Wilson -Pick 118 and DJ Alexander at 172
2016: None
2017: Ukeme Eligwe - pick 183
2018: DoD - Pick 100


In 14 years --- FOURTEEN YEARS -- we've drafted seven guys who might be classified as off-ball linebackers and even that includes DJ Alexander and Cam Sheffield who were always seen as some kind of hybrid/edge sort of players. But give ya all 7 just to be sporting; one every other year.

And in that lot we have a 3rd rounder (dead back of the round) two 4th rounders and four 5th rounders. I mean shit, since 2005 we've spent a 3rd and a 7th on a kicker and a punter. Even the trades are 5th rounders in 2 seasons for Ragland and stuff like that; nominal assets.

Now to some degree it's explained by the time we spent in a 3-4 over that period AND the presence of DJ. You've never felt the need to prioritize the position. But it's still worth pointing out that we've struggled there because we haven't tried - rightly or wrongly, we simply haven't made an effort at that position. We've drafted better than half that lot in the 5th round and spent a 5th rounder on Ragland. Value the position at roughly the 5th round and you probably shouldn't be surprised by a pittance of a return.

It's past time to change that thinking.

Same thread:

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...postcount=1547

Spoiler!

Which is how you get to the "maybe just try a few times?" stage of the program.

I'm not gonna kill them for not spotting every single decent potential 4-3 backer; I get that it can be difficult.

But if you won't even spin the wheel here and there, you can't even get a guy like, say, Fred Warner in here. And Warner's a solid player who you'll stumble onto every few seasons if you just make a damn effort.

Just seems strange that we don't.

Gotta at least pretend to give a shit about a position in the draft in order to get any kind of productivity from it.

[O.city]

Yeah, they haven't done shit at that spot, it shows.

I also think Ragland is playing pretty well right now, wonder what they do with him.

[TambaBerry]

Originally Posted by O.city

Yeah, for sure. It's all a crap shoot.

It just sucks double the amount cause Speaks sucks.

He's had one season playing the wrong position how do you know he sucks already

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by TambaBerry

He's had one season playing the wrong position how do you know he sucks already

I'm open for a bet of some sort here.

I don't KNOW the sun will rise tomorrow...but I'm pretty sure of it. And I'm pretty damn sure that Breeland Speaks sucks. Sure enough that I don't feel the need to qualify it every time I say it.

We ain't in a court of law and I don't stand on ceremony. So rather than repeatedly say "I'm pretty sure Breeland Speaks sucks" I'm just gonna say "Speaks sucks" as a shorthand.

Because Speaks sucks.

[RunKC]

CB and ILB

I think those will be the top 2 picks in the draft. Really good ones are rarely available and when they are, you have to pay out the ass for them. Draft is the best place to get those positions.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Dylan Moses make it to us in your world?

I very much doubt that he does because teams seem to dock guys maybe 5-10 spots for injuries like that if they're considered premier talents. So if he was maybe a top 10 pick before the injury, you figure late teens after. And if he tests well, he'll lose hardly any ground at all.

And with Bush and White both struggling this year (Bush came out on fire but has fallen off over the last several weeks) it seems like it's just !@#$ing hard to play MLB in this league right now.

Maybe we didn't understand just how friggen hard it is to find someone like Derrick Johnson. I mean everyone else we talk about when we say "X would fix so many problems for us on this defense at MLB" is a HoF guy. Schobert's the only dude I've seen who fits who isn't someone like Keuchly or Wagner who are possible first ballot dudes.

It just seems the 2nd tier of 'really good MLBs' is damn near barren right now. They're either elite or they're crap.

If Moses declares after a season-ending knee injury. I haven't really put him on the radar until I see he does that. If he does, he certainly is in the realm of possibility. Obviously the situation isn't quite the same as Jaylon Smith because Moses should be able to run well by the time the draft rolls, but that injury may stick in people's heads when the draft comes.

Only reason I've pumped the brakes on Shobert was looking at the Browns free agent list. I think he gets tagged. He's been playing good enough football the past few years I think he's just as well on pace as Keuchly and Wagner at this point in his career. I don't think the Browns let that walk.

As for RB, I seriously considered mocking a FA pickup of Jordan Howard. He's the big back that can do everything that Veach seems to like and he won't come with the price tag that guys like Bell and Henry will.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Gotta at least pretend to give a shit about a position in the draft in order to get any kind of productivity from it.

I agree with this. I followed a bit of the Chiefs' recent philosophy and I threw a later pick at the position pretty much every year in the alternate reality mocks and finally may have hit on a 5th rounder in Cole Holcomb.

2016 (4-99) - Josh Perry - Whiff
2017 (5-148) - Blair Brown - Whiff
2018 - None
2019 - (5-178) - Cole Holcomb - Starting w/ 76 tackles

That's not going to cut it when you only have one somewhat decent LB on the entire team.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

If Door #1 is Chris Jones and Door #2 is Robinson, Breeland and a couple of 2nd day picks, gimme door #1 without hesitation.

Don't know that I agree with you all on this. If it's a trade to a team like Miami where you're getting pick 35/36 plus a day 2 pick and a player, then that's good value.

I very nearly went with LB Kenneth Murray in 1 and then CB Bryce Hall at that 35/36 spot. In retrospect, and judging by reactions, that's probably what I should have mocked to begin with.

I'd much rather Robinson, Breeland, Murray and Hall than I would just Murray and Jones. That all said, I'm working on something else for you guys to chew on at the moment that retains Jones and makes a free agent splash.

[BryanBusby]

If they can't get a good enough return in a trade than I'd let him just play on the tag

[Tribal Warfare]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Don't know that I agree with you all on this. If it's a trade to a team like Miami where you're getting pick 35/36 plus a day 2 pick and a player, then that's good value.

I very nearly went with LB Kenneth Murray in 1 and then CB Bryce Hall at that 35/36 spot. In retrospect, and judging by reactions, that's probably what I should have mocked to begin with.

I'd much rather Robinson, Breeland, Murray and Hall than I would just Murray and Jones. That all said, I'm working on something else for you guys to chew on at the moment that retains Jones and makes a free agent splash.

IMO, got to fix OL and RB 1st and foremost . There are needs at LB and CB but securing the Mahomes investment takes priority

[Chris Meck]

let's just start with Tyler Biadasz.

Then a LB in the second.

Maybe a RB in the 3rd. We seem to have good luck with 3rd round runners.

and then another fatty.

and then another fatty.

[Chief Northman]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

let's just start with Tyler Biadasz.

Then a LB in the second.

Maybe a RB in the 3rd. We seem to have good luck with 3rd round runners.

and then another fatty.

and then another fatty.

1. Biadasz
2. Phillips (LSU linebacker)
3. Chuba Hubbard (RB, OK State)

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by Chief Northman

1. Biadasz
2. Phillips (LSU linebacker)
3. Chuba Hubbard (RB, OK State)

I want a Biad-ass and a Chubba Hubba.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

let's just start with Tyler Biadasz.

Then a LB in the second.

Maybe a RB in the 3rd. We seem to have good luck with 3rd round runners.

and then another fatty.

and then another fatty.

Which fatty lines up at corner