*** Official 2018 Royals Offseason Repository ***

[duncan_idaho]

It's the end of the world as we know it... and we feel... fine?

2018 is a season of transition for the Royals, or at least it is at this point. Dayton Moore is back. Will he swing full into THE PROCESS 2.0? Or will he try to load up again and make some reload magic happen?

Pending Free Agents:
1B | Eric Hosmer | San Diego Padres, 8 years, $144 million ($5 million signing bonus; $20 million/year in Yrs 1-5; $13 million/year in Yrs 6-8 wth player opt out)

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Texas Rangers, 6, $118 million)

3B | Mike Moustaskas | Kansas City Royas, 1, $6.5 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Los Angeles Angels, 5, $98 million)

CF | Lorenzo Cain | Milwaukee Brewers, 5 years, $80 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: San Francisco Giants, 4, $68 million)

RP | Mike Minor | Texas Rangers, 3, $28 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Los Angeles Angels, 3, $35 million+ $12 million team option

SP | Jason Vargas | New York Mets, 2, $16 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Baltimore Orioles, 2, $29 million)

SS | Alcides Escobar | Kansas City Royals, 1, $2.5 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: San Diego Padres, 1, $6.5 million)

2018 MLB Draft Picks
#18
#33 - Compensation (Eric Hosmer)
#34 - Compensation (Lorenzo Cain)
#40 (Competitive Balance Round A)

Comp picks explanation:

Spoiler!

In case I, picks would be #32, 33, and 34, if Alex Cobb of Rays signs for $50 million guaranteed.

Kansas City will likely have 5 of the top 40-45 picks in the draft, and the bonus pool money should rival that of the teams drafting 1-3 in the 2017 draft. This should give KC tremendous flexibility in acquiring talent that otherwise might slip or not be "signable."

2018 Draft Names to Watch

RHP Kumar Rocker, N Oconnee HS, Georgia.

Spoiler!

Possibly goes top 10 but is a big, physical SP with ace potential. Moore and co. will be all over him if he slips a bit and could offer top 10 money at No. 16

OF Jarred Kelenic, Waukasha West HS, WI

Spoiler!

Kelenic is the top prep bat, toolsy OF. Royals would be ecstatic to have shot at him.

1B Triston Casas, American Heritage HS (FL).

Spoiler!

Tremendous raw power, best in HS bats. Royals typically like HS arms or HS bats with "special" tools. He qualifies.

RHP Carter Stewart, Eau de Gallie HS (Ga).

Spoiler!

Another big, physical specimen with huge upside. More likely to be available mid-first than Rocker.

ANY Any, Any (Any). Any current top projected pick who slides for injury concerns. Includes current top prospect prospect SP Brady Singer, U of Florida.

[tk13]

It's possible this team could lose 100, but that's not an easy thing to do. Remember those 100 loss teams a decade ago ran out complete garbage on offense and our pitching aces were guys like Mark Redman and Scott Elarton. I think you're going to have a hard time convincing anyone those mid-2000's teams had anyone in the same area code as Salvy, Moose, Whit, Duffy, etc.

[tk13]

Just for reference, the last 100 loss Royals team was in 2006. Mark Teahen and Emil Brown were the team's best hitters. They had 4 guys hit double digit HRs and two of those guys hit 11. Joey Gathright and Teahen led the team with 10 steals.

They had a team ERA of 5.65. Only three guys made over 20 starts. Redman, Elarton and Runelvys. Their ERAs were all over 5 and Elvis had an ERA of 6.48.

Jimmy Gobble led the team with 80 strikeouts, and he made 6 starts and 54 appearances out of the bullpen. I don't know how many teams have had a strikeout leader that was a reliever, but it has to be a pretty small number.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

The point is that Dayton put together a 68 win team at best, which is a terrible ROI for a $123 million dollar payroll.



He sat on his hands the past two years when he should have traded Hosmer and Moustakas at their peak value and it was probably a mistake not to move Duffy before this season began.



Moore has made a lot of bad decisions and winning a WS title shouldn't provide cover for those mistakes.



Successful NFL GM's are fired all the time. Just this year, Jerry Reese, the Giants GM and architect of two Super Bowl teams was fired.

When should he have traded Hosmer and Moustakas, according to you?

After they won the World Series? That was their peak value and the point at which they could have gotten a lot for them.

He couldn’t trade Moustakas mid season or offseason last year coming off the knee injury and get max value back.

The mid season trade market was garbage in 2017.

So please, tell me when.

And keep in mind that people would have had a shit fit if the Royals had traded those guys off for minor leaguers before the 2017 season, and especially coming off a WS title in 15.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

When should he have traded Hosmer and Moustakas, according to you?

After they won the World Series? That was their peak value and the point at which they could have gotten a lot for them.

He couldn’t trade Moustakas mid season or offseason last year coming off the knee injury and get max value b

The mid season trade market was garbage in 2017.

So please, tell me when.

And keep in mind that people would have had a shit fit if the Royals had traded those guys off for minor leaguers before the 2017 season, and especially coming off a WS title in 15.

I mentioned it last year and even the second half of 2016.

But hey, you’re a know-it-all with thinking in line with Dayton Moore.

That worked out well.

[Discuss Thrower]

RE: tonight's blown win thanks to Maurer:

What would it take for for the MLB to think that in a scenario where you have a "Herrera/Davis/Holland" trio available that you go to a "Holland" in the 6th with < 1 outs and two men on and then finagle your way through the 7th-9th innings with Davis/Herrera and the remainder of your bullpen?

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

I mentioned it last year and even the second half of 2016.

But hey, you’re a know-it-all with thinking in line with Dayton Moore.

That worked out well.

To be fair, he tried to trade Cain in 2016 and Hos and Moose's trade value (like all hitters in baseball) was in the toilet last year.

Criticizing Moore's drafts, his FA signings, his fixation on Hosmer this last offseason and his refusal to tank is more than fair, however.

[ARROW2]

**** the Royals.

[Al Bundy]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Nah. Not only the Royals. Lots of teams in baseball have highly drafted players never amount to anything or contribute to a major league roster.

Even the Astros, a team that has universally recognized great front office, have glaring misses - Mark Appel instead of Kris Bryant, for example.




His recent history is not good. They’re going to have to turn that around over the next few years. Macro view, his success rate is not bad... but if you shrink it to 2011-2016, it’s rough.

Some of that is bad luck, too. Starling was a known risk and doesn’t qualify, but Kyle Zimmer... no way to predict that other than the fact he was a pitcher, and pitchers break. A lot.

I’m encouraged by the past few drafts. Guys like Khalil Lee, Michael Gigliotti, Nicky Lopez, Richard Lovelady, Pratto, Melendez, Brewer Hicklen are players with slightly different profiles than they’ve focused on in the past (more advanced bats, but still toolsy guys).

I much more bothered by Russell, he got his money and really didn't want to work through what gave him the yips. He's a quitter, Zimmer just wasn't made to be a professional baseball player.

[gblowfish]

God, giving a save to Soria really rubs salt in the wound, man...

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

I mentioned it last year and even the second half of 2016.



But hey, you’re a know-it-all with thinking in line with Dayton Moore.



That worked out well.

There’s actually very little Moore does that’s in line with the way I would approach things, other than trying to maximize the contention window for a small-market franchise and focusing on defense. He has been around long enough to see how he thinks, though, and I usually can “see” what he’s trying to do.

As has been stated a bunch of times... the mid season 2017 trade market for position players was a pile of flaming dog shit. jD Martinez garnered nothing prospects at the deadline. The Royals were also in control of wild card race at the deadline.

We talked about the type of return the Royals would need to get to move those guys early in the year, and those returns weren’t out there.

They’ll get more value out of the comp picks for Hosmer and Cain than they would have out of trash that was available for rental hitters, anyway.

Moustakas was not trade-able in 2016 due to the knee injury.

They talked about some deals around Wade David and Cain at the deadline that year that also got torpedoed by injuries.

I’m not a know-it-all when it comes to the Royals, just a know-more-than-you.

[BeMyValentine]

Originally Posted by tk13

Just for reference, the last 100 loss Royals team was in 2006. Mark Teahen and Emil Brown were the team's best hitters. They had 4 guys hit double digit HRs and two of those guys hit 11. Joey Gathright and Teahen led the team with 10 steals.

They had a team ERA of 5.65. Only three guys made over 20 starts. Redman, Elarton and Runelvys. Their ERAs were all over 5 and Elvis had an ERA of 6.48.

Jimmy Gobble led the team with 80 strikeouts, and he made 6 starts and 54 appearances out of the bullpen. I don't know how many teams have had a strikeout leader that was a reliever, but it has to be a pretty small number.

Great Post, who was our All-star Elarton?

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Al Bundy

I much more bothered by Russell, he got his money and really didn't want to work through what gave him the yips. He's a quitter, Zimmer just wasn't made to be a professional baseball player.

That deal is just really weird. He was the consensus top HS arm in the draft and slipped a little to the Royals.

He did legitimately lose 8- 10 mph off his fastball from his HS season to when he showed up for the Royals (and that was velo he had held for a long time).

It’s one reason why I would leery of HS arms with those first-round picks. So much variance in outcome and by far the lowest success rate.

[Al Bundy]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

That deal is just really weird. He was the consensus top HS arm in the draft and slipped a little to the Royals.

He did legitimately lose 8- 10 mph off his fastball from his HS season to when he showed up for the Royals (and that was velo he had held for a long time).

It’s one reason why I would leery of HS arms with those first-round picks. So much variance in outcome and by far the lowest success rate.

Yep, very disappointing. I wonder what caused the velo drop off?

[lewdog]

Tell you what Dane (if that is your real name?!), let’s put a CP bet on this.

If the royals lose 100 games, I ban myself from CP for 34 days. If the Royals lose 99 or less games you ban yourself for 17 days.

2:1 odds!

Deal?

[Al Bundy]

BTW game has been postponed today. Will be a DH later this month.