Royals *** Official 2018 Royals Offseason Repository *** - Page 156

duncan_idaho · 06:46 AM

It's the end of the world as we know it... and we feel... fine?

2018 is a season of transition for the Royals, or at least it is at this point. Dayton Moore is back. Will he swing full into THE PROCESS 2.0? Or will he try to load up again and make some reload magic happen?

Pending Free Agents:
1B | Eric Hosmer | San Diego Padres, 8 years, $144 million ($5 million signing bonus; $20 million/year in Yrs 1-5; $13 million/year in Yrs 6-8 wth player opt out)

Spoiler!

3B | Mike Moustaskas | Kansas City Royas, 1, $6.5 million

Spoiler!

CF | Lorenzo Cain | Milwaukee Brewers, 5 years, $80 million

Spoiler!

RP | Mike Minor | Texas Rangers, 3, $28 million

Spoiler!

SP | Jason Vargas | New York Mets, 2, $16 million

Spoiler!

SS | Alcides Escobar | Kansas City Royals, 1, $2.5 million

Spoiler!

2018 MLB Draft Picks
#18
#33 - Compensation (Eric Hosmer)
#34 - Compensation (Lorenzo Cain)
#40 (Competitive Balance Round A)

Comp picks explanation:

Spoiler!

2018 Draft Names to Watch

RHP Kumar Rocker, N Oconnee HS, Georgia.

Spoiler!

OF Jarred Kelenic, Waukasha West HS, WI

Spoiler!

1B Triston Casas, American Heritage HS (FL).

Spoiler!

RHP Carter Stewart, Eau de Gallie HS (Ga).

Spoiler!

ANY Any, Any (Any). Any current top projected pick who slides for injury concerns. Includes current top prospect prospect SP Brady Singer, U of Florida.

WilliamTheIrish · 03-20-2018, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

You could make the case Moose HR game 1 vs ANA and Hoz game 2 were as significant

And Gordo’s extra inning mash in B-more Game 2

**Bufkin** · 03-20-2018, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OKchiefs

So, any predictions on who will be traded at the deadline? I would imagine Moustakas is a top candidate. Who else?

Duffy?
Salvy?
Whit?

Salvy is a 27 year old catcher who is considered to be one of the top 3 best defensive catchers in baseball with 4 Gold Gloves. He’s also coming off a career high 27 home runs with less at bats than years prior. Given his team friendly contract, he would command one of the biggest hauls we’ve ever seen in Kansas City.

But no way in hell do we trade Salvy. He’s the Joe Thomas to our Cleveland Browns.

TomBarndtsTwin · 03-20-2018, 03:24 PM

Hey, look: a guy who started playing fantasy baseball 10 years ago suddenly thinks he’s an expert on statistical analysis.

Welcome aboard, Bill James.

Dumb ****.

Abba-Dabba · 03-20-2018, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SPchief

Are you seriously pointing out fantasy PROJECTIONS?

Are you saying they were wrong in his decline and projection to even have bigger drop in production years before you guys say it wasn't happening? His bat was declining prior to his injury in 2015.

I don't see why so many people are willing to defend the bat of present .200 hitter who has a gradual decline for many years now, and then act all offended as if it wasn't happening. Like this is new thing concerning his bat.

No. It isn't a new thing. it has been happening for years. Even years prior to his contract in 2016.

I have already stated that Alex's worth wasn't in his bat. It was his defense, hometown sentiment and putting butts in seats from his popularity locally.

Abba-Dabba · 03-20-2018, 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

Hey, look: a guy who started playing fantasy baseball 10 years ago suddenly thinks he’s an expert on statistical analysis.

Welcome aboard, Bill James.

Dumb ****.

I don't play any fantasy sports. Can you be any more wrong with your next post?

SPchief · 03-20-2018, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Infidel Goat

YEAR OPS+
2007 90
2008 109
2009 87
2010 84
2011 140
2012 123
2013 103
2014 118
2015 119

When was his dropoff prior to resigning with KC exactly? I'll give you that his career year occurred in 2011, but there's little difference in AG in 2012, 2014, and 2015 (except he was injured).

Quote:

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

This simply isn't true.

Put aside his breakout year of 2011, which is an outlier. His season-by-season OPS+ from 2012-15 were 123, 103, 118 and 119. His wRC+ over that period: 126, 104, 120, 122.

Before his injury in 2015, he was hitting .279/.394/.457/.852.

He had a down 2013, but his 2014 and 15 seasons were in line with 2012. So three out of four years he was consistently around 20 percent better than league average offensively.

I fail to see any detectable decline pre-injury.

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

It’s your prerogative to be wrong. Be my guest.

Alex Gordon had a career year in 2011 and a down year in 2013. His batting average drop coincided with teams beginning to shift against him in 2013.

His 2012, 14, and 15 seasons were very nearly identical, and his 2015 rate stats were his best since 2012.

Using BA as a barometer of a hitter’s worth is an outdated and foolish approach. He was a consistent .265-.270/.350 OBP guy in the three years leading up to the deal, production that was around 20 percent above league average. He was a top 25 (overall) offensive player in Baseball from 2011-2015 and top 35 from 2014-15.

Your narrative is driven by bias and disconnected from statistical fact.

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

It’s also worth mentioning that Gordon’s 10.7 percent walk rate in 2014-15 was 24th in all of baseball.

Get out of here with the “not a patient hitter” garbage.

He sucks now and likely will suck until he hangs it up. But get out of here with Your proclaimed foresight, Nostradamus.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RubberSponge

Are you saying there were wrong in his decline and projection to even have bigger drop in production years before you guys say it wasn't happening? His bat was declining prior to his injury in 2015.

I don't see why so many people are willing to defend the bat of present .200 hitter who has a gradual decline for many years now, and then act all offended as if it wasn't happening. Like this is new thing concerning his bat.

No. It isn't a new thing. it has been happening for years. Even years prior to his contract in 2016.

I have already stated that Alex's worth wasn't in his bat. It was his defense, hometown sentiment and putting butts in seats from his popularity locally.

Where's the delcine?

Abba-Dabba · 03-20-2018, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SPchief

Where's the delcine?

I am not going to argue over baseball statistics. I have better things to do than that. Do you know how many batting and pitching statistics someone can pull out of their butt to prove anything either way? Talk about an endless run around that gets boring from the moment it starts.

siberian khatru · 03-20-2018, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RubberSponge

I am not going to argue over baseball statistics. I have better things to do than that. Do you know how many batting and pitching statistics someone can pull out of their butt to prove anything either way? Talk about an endless run around that gets boring from the moment it starts.

Holy shit, if that isn't the siren call of someone who's just had his ass handed to him.

Yes, anyone can pull stats out of their ass. But it takes a real baseball savant to rely on fantasy projections to get to the truth.

SPchief · 03-20-2018, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RubberSponge

I am not going to argue over baseball statistics. I have better things to do than that. Do you know how many batting and pitching statistics someone can pull out of their butt to prove anything either way? Talk about an endless run around that gets boring from the moment it starts.

Tapout acknowledged /PB

Abba-Dabba · 03-20-2018, 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

Holy shit, if that isn't the siren call of someone who's just had his ass handed to him.

Yes, anyone can pull stats out of their ass. But it takes a real baseball savant to rely on fantasy projections to get to the truth.

Not really. I am not going to go through stat after stat from 4 or 5 of you on an endless run around.

I'm sorry you weren't able to see the decline in his bat prior to 2016. That is not my fault.

**RealSNR** · 03-20-2018, 04:02 PM

Why the **** would we trade Whit? We have another year or two of control after this season.

Abba-Dabba · 03-20-2018, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SPchief

Tapout acknowledged /PB

Because I don't want to argue baseball statistics endlessly? Ok, guy.

duncan_idaho · 03-20-2018, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RubberSponge

What I said earlier about making people livid when the truth is spoke about Alex is all still well and good.

So no one saw the decline coming huh? WTF are you guys talking about? Talk about selective memory, or like I said overlooking and not paying attention.

Here is Fangraphs 2012

2012

2013

2014

2015

Should I go on to 2016 and 2017? There were plenty of people who saw the decline. Just because you overlooked it, doesn't mean it wasn't there.

Your argument that he was consistently regressing and on a solid slide is not proved by quoting fantasy baseball articles.

The facts are that his 2014 and 2015 were nearly identical, and both improvements from 2013.

It isn’t a bell curve regression by any means.

But keep spewing your revisionist nonsense.

SPchief · 03-20-2018, 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RubberSponge

Because I don't want to argue baseball statistics endlessly? Ok, guy.

You're not arguing stats. You're arguing fantasy. You've been shown stats that prove you wrong

OKchiefs · 03-20-2018, 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RealSNR

Why the **** would we trade Whit? We have another year or two of control after this season.

Because IF we can get anything of value for him (i.e. multiple prospects) it's more valuable than one above average second baseman on a 90 loss team.

11-17-2017, 08:24 PM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1560308	* Official 2018 Royals Offseason Repository * It's the end of the world as we know it... and we feel... fine? 2018 is a season of transition for the Royals, or at least it is at this point. Dayton Moore is back. Will he swing full into THE PROCESS 2.0? Or will he try to load up again and make some reload magic happen? Pending Free Agents: 1B \| Eric Hosmer \| San Diego Padres, 8 years, $144 million ($5 million signing bonus; $20 million/year in Yrs 1-5; $13 million/year in Yrs 6-8 wth player opt out) Spoiler! (DI's Guess: Texas Rangers, 6, $118 million) 3B \| Mike Moustaskas \| Kansas City Royas, 1, $6.5 million Spoiler! (DI's Guess: Los Angeles Angels, 5, $98 million) CF \| Lorenzo Cain \| Milwaukee Brewers, 5 years, $80 million Spoiler! (DI's Guess: San Francisco Giants, 4, $68 million) RP \| Mike Minor \| Texas Rangers, 3, $28 million Spoiler! (DI's Guess: Los Angeles Angels, 3, $35 million+ $12 million team option SP \| Jason Vargas \| New York Mets, 2, $16 million Spoiler! (DI's Guess: Baltimore Orioles, 2, $29 million) SS \| Alcides Escobar \| Kansas City Royals, 1, $2.5 million Spoiler! (DI's Guess: San Diego Padres, 1, $6.5 million) 2018 MLB Draft Picks #18 #33 - Compensation (Eric Hosmer) #34 - Compensation (Lorenzo Cain) #40 (Competitive Balance Round A) Comp picks explanation: Spoiler! In case I, picks would be #32, 33, and 34, if Alex Cobb of Rays signs for $50 million guaranteed. Kansas City will likely have 5 of the top 40-45 picks in the draft, and the bonus pool money should rival that of the teams drafting 1-3 in the 2017 draft. This should give KC tremendous flexibility in acquiring talent that otherwise might slip or not be "signable." 2018 Draft Names to Watch RHP Kumar Rocker, N Oconnee HS, Georgia. Spoiler! Possibly goes top 10 but is a big, physical SP with ace potential. Moore and co. will be all over him if he slips a bit and could offer top 10 money at No. 16 OF Jarred Kelenic, Waukasha West HS, WI Spoiler! Kelenic is the top prep bat, toolsy OF. Royals would be ecstatic to have shot at him. 1B Triston Casas, American Heritage HS (FL). Spoiler! Tremendous raw power, best in HS bats. Royals typically like HS arms or HS bats with "special" tools. He qualifies. RHP Carter Stewart, Eau de Gallie HS (Ga). Spoiler! Another big, physical specimen with huge upside. More likely to be available mid-first than Rocker. ANY Any, Any (Any). Any current top projected pick who slides for injury concerns. Includes current top prospect prospect SP Brady Singer, U of Florida. Last edited by duncan_idaho; 04-02-2018 at 06:46 AM..
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03-20-2018, 03:24 PM	#2328
TomBarndtsTwin MVP Join Date: Mar 2013 Casino cash: $4979883	Hey, look: a guy who started playing fantasy baseball 10 years ago suddenly thinks he’s an expert on statistical analysis. Welcome aboard, Bill James. Dumb ****.
Posts: 8,842