Chiefs Week 2 DVOA ratings

Giant Octopodes · 09-18-2019, 12:58 PM

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dv...2-dvoa-ratings

For those who don't know Football Outsiders rate each play based on how it impacts a team's expected win probability, and based on the success or failure of the totality of their plays rates the strength of a team's offense, defense and special teams. It's more complicated than that but that's the broad strokes version. They normally adjust for the opponent but can't without adequate data so that starts after week 4.

Right now, the Chiefs are rated 4th overall, with the 2nd ranked offense, just behind the Cowboys. Their defense and special teams are both roughly league average (16th and 17th respectively).

It is worth noting of course that two of the teams rated above them (the Ravens and Patriots) faced the historically, almost impossibly bad Dolphins, so the gap between them could narrow or reverse after opponent adjustments are in place. That being said both of the opponents the Chiefs have faced are below average as week, so they won't be immune to negative adjustments themselves.

What's the point of all this? The next Chief's game should be interesting, as they face the Ravens with the 3rd ranked offense, 9th ranked defense, and top ranked special teams. We'll see a lot about each team and how accurate or how far off the current ratings are. It'll be by far the best matchup of the week from a DVOA standpoint.

09-18-2019, 12:58 PM	Topic Starter
Giant Octopodes Starter Join Date: Sep 2019 Casino cash: $10000400	Week 2 DVOA ratings https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dv...2-dvoa-ratings For those who don't know Football Outsiders rate each play based on how it impacts a team's expected win probability, and based on the success or failure of the totality of their plays rates the strength of a team's offense, defense and special teams. It's more complicated than that but that's the broad strokes version. They normally adjust for the opponent but can't without adequate data so that starts after week 4. Right now, the Chiefs are rated 4th overall, with the 2nd ranked offense, just behind the Cowboys. Their defense and special teams are both roughly league average (16th and 17th respectively). It is worth noting of course that two of the teams rated above them (the Ravens and Patriots) faced the historically, almost impossibly bad Dolphins, so the gap between them could narrow or reverse after opponent adjustments are in place. That being said both of the opponents the Chiefs have faced are below average as week, so they won't be immune to negative adjustments themselves. What's the point of all this? The next Chief's game should be interesting, as they face the Ravens with the 3rd ranked offense, 9th ranked defense, and top ranked special teams. We'll see a lot about each team and how accurate or how far off the current ratings are. It'll be by far the best matchup of the week from a DVOA standpoint.
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