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Old 12-15-2018, 05:14 PM  
kccrow kccrow is offline
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Mock 12/15 (4-3 Switch)

Chiefs lose in the AFCC game because their defense sucks balls.
The Chiefs fire Bob Sutton in the offseason and hire Kris Richard, currently the defensive backs coach for the Dallas Cowboys and former defensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks (2015-17).
Under Richard, the Chiefs switch to a 4-3 Under base defense.


Extensions

WR Tyreek Hill: It's imperative to lock up the team's most dynamic player long-term and give Mahomes a weapon for the foreseeable future. Hill must be retained and he won't get cheaper.
5 years/$95.0m contract extension with $65m in guarantees, $42m guaranteed at signing, and $20m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 6.097 2020: 18.75 2021: 19.25 2022: 19.75 2023: 18.25 2024: 15.00
Notes: Hill will earn the NFL Proven Performance Escalator for the last year of his rookie deal which means his base salary will increase to the Right of First Refusal tender amount. That amount was $1.907 million in 2018 and increases by the percentage the cap increases with a minimum of 5% and a maximum of 10%. If the NFL carries through with an approximate 6% increase in the cap, then that base will be $2.02 million, which was used in the 2019 cap estimate.

DL Chris Jones: I've been preaching the same thing Andy Reid mentioned not too long ago: the quickest route to the QB is a straight line and having defensive lineman that can get after them up the middle is better than good edge rushers in today's NFL that sees QBs get the ball out quicker than ever. Jones has stepped up his game considerably and we should project that to continue.
5 years, $81.0m contract extension with $40.0m guaranteed at signing including $20.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 5.98 2020: 13.00 2021: 15.00 2022: 16.00 2023: 17.00 2024: 16.00

Tags/Tenders

ED Dee Ford: Franchise Tag estimated $15.4m/trade (Below)
FS Jordan Lucas: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.02m (Hoping KC reaches an extension agreement to lower the hit)
OC Austin Reiter: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.02m (I'm just going to leave this in here until the details of his extension are released)
DL Justin Hamilton: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
PK Harrison Butker: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Markus Kemp: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Gehrig Deiter: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus

Cuts

SS Daniel Sorensen: Sorensen hasn't been much of an asset since signing his extension and would free up $2.7m to help offset picking up a free agent and maintain enough free cap space for in-season acquisitions.

Restructures

SS Eric Berry: Berry has been perpetually injured for the Chiefs and, honestly, deserves to get the June 1 axe. However, I'm going to give Berry and the Chiefs the benefit of the doubt and assume that Berry gets immediate offseason surgery to remove the deformity on his heal and make him available for the 2019 season. According to OTC, Berry can push $11.47m into a signing bonus in a restructure situation, freeing up significant cap space. This move will extend Berry's prorated money to about 6.87 per over the next 3 seasons and 2.87 in the final year of his deal and will also force the Chiefs to do some cap work in 2020 with players like Justin Houston and Sammy Watkins.

Acquisitions

OC Brett Jones (MIN): Jones was actually a good starter for New York and his trade to Minnesota left Giants fans scratching their heads. He went to a team that needed to fill in for injuries but he probably isn't a guy they will retain long-term. Jones could step in and compete with Reiter for the starting position plus he has enough versatility to back up the guard position.
2 years/$5.5m with 2.25m guaranteed and $1.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.50 2020: 3.00

TE Maxx Williams (BAL): Williams has had alot of injuries throughout his career but he's still extremely young and has flashed what made him a high round pick. He'd make an excellent number two type with solid hands, route running, and blocking ability.
3 years/$9.0m with $1.5m signing bonus, and $1.0m roster bonuses in 2020 and 2021 if he's on the roster the 5th day of the new league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.00 2020: 3.25 2021: 3.75

FS Earl Thomas (SEA): The Chiefs tried to trade for Earl Thomas before he broke his leg (again) so I fully expect Brett Veach to pursue Thomas heavily in free agency. Thomas is one of the most productive free safeties in the league and with the relative uncertainty with Berry from year-to-year and game-to-game, the Chiefs desperately need another leader in the secondary. Thomas' recent injury history is cause for concern with his slender build but the Chiefs' secondary is also cause for concern.
3 years/$36.0m with $16.5m guaranteed and $9.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 10.50 2020: 12.00 2021: 13.50

CB Ronald Darby (PHI): Darby is a bit of a gamble coming off an ACL injury, but if he's on track in March he could still see a pay day similar to Allen Robinson. I'm going to go all out here and sign him to a lucrative deal that has some protections in it should the Chiefs need to release him after one season. He's a far better corner than anyone on the Chiefs roster.
5 years/$65.5m with $16.5m guaranteed, a $10.5m signing bonus, and $14.25m in potential additional guarantees including roster bonuses of $3.0m in 2020 and $4.0m in 2021 as well as a salary guarantee of $7.25m in 2020 if he's on the roster the 5th day of those respective league years. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 8.25 2020: 12.50 2021: 13.75 2022: 14.75 2023: 16.25

RB Tevin Coleman (ATL): Coleman doesn't get the touches he deserves being locked behind Devonta Freeman in Atlanta so he's undoubtedly going to test free agency for a starting gig. Coleman has shown big-play ability throughout his career and is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Coleman has links to the KC RBs coach and fits the offensive scheme well.
4 years/$25.0m with $10.6m guaranteed and a $5.6m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 4.00 2020: 6.00 2021: 7.00 2022: 8.00

Re-signings

RB Damien Williams: Showed some good things in his start against the Chargers, effective running and receiving. He's healthier than Ware and showed more burst. Chiefs bring him back on a team friendly deal.
2 years/$3.1m including $1.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.50 2020: 1.60

All PS on Minimal Deals that likely don't affect Top-51.

Let Walk

DE Allen Bailey, CB Orlando Scandrick, TE Demetrius Harris, FS Josh Shaw, RB Spencer Ware, OC Mitch Morse, FS Ron Parker, WR De'Anthony Thomas, OLB Frank Zombo, CB Steven Nelson, ILB Terrence Smith, WR Chris Conley, FB Anthony Sherman

Notes: Bailey is an okay player, and would be especially good situationally, but is costing too much to bring back. Anthony Sherman, while a great fullback and special teams player, isn't on the field enough and his contributions could be replaced by as little as an UDFA at a fraction of the cost. Nelson is okay and could even be a guy to consider bringing back, but this secondary made me cringe so much against LA that I'd rather blow it up. Conley is a solid role player at WR but he doesn't contribute enough to really say he's worth retaining at an advanced salary, plus I really liked what Pringle brought to the table in preseason.

Trades

Chiefs trade Dee Ford to the Seattle Seahawks for the 25th overall selection (estimated) because Pete Carroll has never been against trading for players if he thinks they'll improve the team. Ford is young enough and more than good enough to fill their void on the outside. Ford undoubtedly would fit perfectly in the new Chiefs defense, but the salary cap exists and the Chiefs will have to make some hard choices.

Chiefs trade the 25th overall selection and their 3rd round selection to move up to the 20th overall selection.

Draft

Chiefs have a projected 6th round compensatory selection for Bennie Logan.

1. ILB Mack Wilson, Alabama (6'1" 235)
It has become overwhelmingly apparent that the Chiefs must address the situation at ILB going into 2019 and the best way to do that may just be in the draft. Getting a young player that can cover while still having the ability to come downhill in the run game and be a 3-down player is paramount. Wilson is the best coverage linebacker in the draft and has shown a penchant for laying the wood as well. The Chiefs need a tone-setter and a defensive captain, and Wilson is that guy. Today's NFL requires 2 linebackers that can play out in space and in coverage, so Wilson and an ascending Dorian O'Daniel would give them that.
1. CB Amani Oruwariye, Penn State (6'1" 210)
The Chiefs issues at corner run deep with a lack of overall understanding of the defensive scheme and misalignments aplenty over the course of the 2018 season. The Chiefs need a complete overhaul of the secondary. Oruwariye is a good corner that displays good understanding of body placement when defending receivers and has great reach to disrupt passing lanes but lacks great top end speed. Reminds a bit of a Richard Sherman type, which fits right into Kris Richard's scheme.
2. DE Jaylon Ferguson, Lousiana Tech (6'5" 265)
Ferguson is a quick and disruptive defensive end who went back to playing lights out in 2018 after a drop in production in 2017. There's a legitimate chance that Ferguson goes much higher and even cracks the first round dependent on workouts but as of rate now he seems to have a consensus ranking at the bottom of round 2 to the top of round 3. The Chiefs will have to plan for the potential release of Justin Houston in 2020 due to cap implications and decreased production due to availability (his sack per game average remains at a 10 per season pace however).
2. WR K.J. Hill, Ohio State (6'0" 195)
Hill is that prototypical Reid receiver that can work the underneath routes and eat up tons of YAC. Hill has good quickness and good top-end speed that he rarely was able to display at OSU given his usage, but don't be surprised when he runs in the low 4.4s. Hill probably has the best hands in this receiving class to boot.
5. DT Kingsley Keke, Texas A&M (6'4" 305)
Keke had a resurgence of a season at Texas A&M with 6.5 sacks and showed outstanding tackle production for a 3rd consecutive season. Keke is severely underrated and could be a steal in this draft.
6. FS Kyle Gibson, Central Florida (5'11' 185)
Very quick safety/corner with range and decent ball skills. Played a ton of single-high at UCF and was one of their best defenders. Good in coverage and good at flowing to the football but needs to put on more weight for hitting NFL players and keeping them down.
6. OL Sean Rawlings, Ole Miss (6'5" 294)
Very athletic offensive lineman with good technique. Will need to add good weight and strength at the pro level but is the type of player Reid tends to covet on the offensive line. Experience at tackle and center, but looks best on the inside and would be a good developmental player on the interior O-Line.
7. RB Tony Brooks-James, Oregon (5'9" 180)
Andy Reid's new play thing with a similar skillset to D'Anthony Thomas and my have more potential as a WR. Outsanding speed and agility. Ace kick return type.

Estimated Remaining Cap: $4.9m

Roster (Not representative of 53)

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Chase Litton
RB: Tevin Coleman, Damien Williams, Darrel Williams, Tony Brooks-James (/WR)
FB: *Probable UDFA such as Wisconsin's Alec Ingold
TE: Travis Kelce, Maxx Williams, Deon Yelder
WR: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, K.J. Hill, Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle, Marcus Kemp, Gehrig Dieter
OT: Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Andrew Wylie
OG: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Cameron Erving, Ryan Hunter, Khalil McKenzie, Sean Rawlings
OC: Brett Jones, Austin Reiter, Jimmy Murray
DE: Justin Houston, Breeland Speaks, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Jaylon Ferguson, Rob McCray
DT: Chris Jones, Derrick Nnadi, Xavier Williams, Kingsley Keke, Justin Hamilton, Joey Ivey
LB: Mack Wilson, Anthony Hitchens, Dorian O'Daniel, Ben Niemann, Reggie Ragland
CB: Ronald Darby, Amani Oruwariye, Kendall Fuller, Charvarius Ward, Tremon Smith, D'Montre Wade
FS: Earl Thomas, Eric Murray, Kyle Gibson
SS: Eric Berry, Armani Watts, Jordan Lucas
ST: Harrison Butker, Dustin Colquitt, James Winchester
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Old 12-15-2018, 08:32 PM   #2
pugsnotdrugs19 pugsnotdrugs19 is offline
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This is a fun one, but holy spending spree. That would be quite an offseason.

I wonder if Veach will be a bit more gun shy after the way the Watkins/Hitchens deals have worked out so far.
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Old 12-15-2018, 08:33 PM   #3
pugsnotdrugs19 pugsnotdrugs19 is offline
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I would LOVE Mack Wilson, or any good ILB for that matter.
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Old 12-15-2018, 08:35 PM   #4
kccrow kccrow is offline
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Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 View Post
This is a fun one, but holy spending spree. That would be quite an offseason.

I wonder if Veach will be a bit more gun shy after the way the Watkins/Hitchens deals have worked out so far.
Huge cause for concern are those contracts. He went balls deep for two guys that hadn't played to a level those contracts represent and didn't give the appearance that they ever would. Watkins was especially the headscratcher given that he could pretty well never stay out of the training room.
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Old 12-15-2018, 08:40 PM   #5
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Huge cause for concern are those contracts. He went balls deep for two guys that hadn't played to a level those contracts represent and didn't give the appearance that they ever would. Watkins was especially the headscratcher given that he could pretty well never stay out of the training room.
On Mack Wilson, it seems unclear if he is declaring or not. But if he does, wed surely have to trade up, no?
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Old 12-15-2018, 11:39 PM   #6
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I would LOVE Mack Wilson, or any good player on defense for that matter.
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Old 12-16-2018, 01:41 AM   #7
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On Mack Wilson, it seems unclear if he is declaring or not. But if he does, wed surely have to trade up, no?
I don't think we'll get an official declaration from the Bama kids until after the championship game, but he's pretty well a consensus first rounder at this point so it'd be kind of silly for him to not leave early.
I'm fairly certain we'll have to get at least to 20 or so.
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Old 12-16-2018, 04:36 AM   #8
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I was just messing around with a 4-3 and sign Earl Thomas draft before I saw this, maybe I'll leave it for a bit! Mine had a few bits that I'm not sure if they are realistic, like Kelvin Benjamin staying for 2019 on an incentive based prove it deal...

I much prefer the corner situation in this draft to the last one you did, I think $9m on one FA corner and a high draft pick is a much better way to add than two mediocre corners that still come to about $9m between them.

I really want to add to the Dline in the first, but maybe the draft is so deep that someone like Ferguson ends up falling to the 2nd and later looks like 1st round talent due to the depth.
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Old 12-16-2018, 07:20 AM   #9
BryanBusby BryanBusby is offline
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I don't know. Anticipating getting a 1st round pick from Dee Ford in a draft loaded with edge guys is awfully ambitious.
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Old 12-16-2018, 07:26 AM   #10
Chargem Chargem is offline
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I don't know. Anticipating getting a 1st round pick from Dee Ford in a draft loaded with edge guys is awfully ambitious.
I'm thinking maybe the 2nd round pick of the Browns for him.
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Old 12-16-2018, 07:45 AM   #11
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I'm thinking maybe the 2nd round pick of the Browns for him.
The Browns don't need Dee Ford.

You could probably do a tagged player swap by sending Dee Ford to the Giants for Landon Collins. Vernon and Dee Ford would be a hell of an edgerushing duo.
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Old 12-16-2018, 11:59 AM   #12
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Ford is really only a 3-4 rushbacker.

I like this mock EXCEPT for the Tevin Coleman signing. I think we're fine at RB actually. Better than fine. I think Williams, Williams, and Ware is a pretty good stable. I don't think Coleman would be more productive, honestly.
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Old 12-16-2018, 05:32 PM   #13
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I don't know. Anticipating getting a 1st round pick from Dee Ford in a draft loaded with edge guys is awfully ambitious.
I agree it could be.

Here's my thought process.

You have probably 4 going top 10-12 at this point.

SF, OAK, NYJ, ARZ, ATL, and GB all badly need pass rushers.

Add in CAR, MIA, PHI, SEA, PIT, and BAL as teams that will also very much need pass rushers early on. TB and DET may also be in that mix.

There are 4 "studs" for weak side rushers in my opinion: Bosa, Ferrell, Allen, and Sweat. You also have a couple guys that are either 3-4 DEs or 4-3 strong side ends in Gary and Allen. You might sneak Polite into the top group but right now he's a one-year guy that's alot like a young Ford.

I'd put money on OAK, SF, NYJ, and GB taking pass rushers early. ARZ, ATL eat up a couple of the stud DTs. PHI takes a pass rusher, probably Polite, to replace Graham. DEN takes one of Gary or Allen and CAR probably takes the other.

Not much left to go around at this point as far as quality goes and you're in the pick 20 area.
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Old 12-16-2018, 05:33 PM   #14
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Ford is really only a 3-4 rushbacker.

I like this mock EXCEPT for the Tevin Coleman signing. I think we're fine at RB actually. Better than fine. I think Williams, Williams, and Ware is a pretty good stable. I don't think Coleman would be more productive, honestly.
That's fine, except for you have to re-sign both Damien and Spencer this offseason to get back to that stable. Either way could work, but I think Coleman is a better back than Ware at this point.
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Old 12-16-2018, 11:03 PM   #15
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I agree it could be.

Here's my thought process.

You have probably 4 going top 10-12 at this point.

SF, OAK, NYJ, ARZ, ATL, and GB all badly need pass rushers.

Add in CAR, MIA, PHI, SEA, PIT, and BAL as teams that will also very much need pass rushers early on. TB and DET may also be in that mix.

There are 4 "studs" for weak side rushers in my opinion: Bosa, Ferrell, Allen, and Sweat. You also have a couple guys that are either 3-4 DEs or 4-3 strong side ends in Gary and Allen. You might sneak Polite into the top group but right now he's a one-year guy that's alot like a young Ford.

I'd put money on OAK, SF, NYJ, and GB taking pass rushers early. ARZ, ATL eat up a couple of the stud DTs. PHI takes a pass rusher, probably Polite, to replace Graham. DEN takes one of Gary or Allen and CAR probably takes the other.

Not much left to go around at this point as far as quality goes and you're in the pick 20 area.
The 49ers could be in the market as they blew the Nick Bosa sweepstakes today, but we're not getting a high 1 for Dee Ford.

I think you can work a trade to get trade equivalent of a one in eventual time, but I don't think we're getting a hard pick straight up.
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