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Old 12-10-2018, 03:28 PM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The Case for Using Prime Resources on an Elite RB

The game that Mahomes played against the Ravens was majestic. The passes he made towards the end of the game and throughout were magical.

But they're not things you can rely on him making for 17 weeks a season. I don't even care if he's been making them this year on a weekly basis. You shouldn't ask your QB to be superhuman to win games. You should ask him to be good to win games, so that when he becomes superhuman, you can't lose.

Because Mahomes was amazing against the Ravens, but if he struggles we lose. If he struggled against the Raiders, we lose.

In short, since losing Hunt, the Chiefs need more versatility so that they have other ways to beat teams if Mahomes is ever off. The biggest way you can do that is by fixing the defense, but that will require a ton of resources -- all three levels of the defense need a makeover and beg some hard questions. And while this can be done, it's probably not going to get done in one offseason, and the Mahomes Franchise Contract clock is ticking.

The easiest way to do this, however, is with an offense that is 99% built as it is right now. Get an elite RB.

An elite QB that can run the ball 25 times and get 180 yards if teams dare us to run is a solution we should seriously consider. It will require something dramatic, like spending a 1st round pick on a RB, or spending major coin on LeVeon Bell. (Here's what the latter would kind of look like.)

Now, there are multiple complaints I can already envision:

* Running the ball is increasingly irrelevant. I agree with that, but you do need to be able to counter teams if they commit 100% resources to removing your passing game. You can still get victories on the ground.

* Big money free agent RBs never pan out. Big money anything rarely pans out. QBs are paid a ton of money and flame out. Passrushers. DL. Corners. Think less of it as using up cap space, and more an investment into the role they play on the team. Because the role an elite RB that demands attention from opposing defenses only makes Mahomes role easier.

* This player or that player is not good enough. Shrug.

Anyway, I know I'll get roasted for this because you guys roast me for everything, but it's worth consideration as we enter an offseason without Kareem Hunt.
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Old 12-10-2018, 03:56 PM   #2
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Or they can finally build an OL that can actually run block allowing virtually anyone to run behind it.
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Good article. Just as I suspected everything is Smitty's fault. Hope he burns in hell for all of eternity.
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Old 12-10-2018, 03:58 PM   #3
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Didn't you want to take Cameron Erving with a 1st rounder? And with the justification that 'he's versatile'?

I'm gonna reiterate that your barometer for when/how one should be using high-end draft resources is flawed at best.
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Old 12-10-2018, 04:05 PM   #4
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
Didn't you want to take Cameron Erving with a 1st rounder? And with the justification that 'he's versatile'?

I'm gonna reiterate that your barometer for when/how one should be using high-end draft resources is flawed at best.
Oh yeah. I've wanted to take a ton of dudes that ended up sucking. My track record is the most transparent that CP has and it's far from perfect.

You can disregard me as a person, that's no skin off my sack. I think the logic of a high-end RB is sound, though.
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Old 12-10-2018, 04:07 PM   #5
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Ware just ran for 75 yards on 15 carries.

Why on gods green earth would you want to spend a high pick or even a lot of money in a running back?
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Old 12-10-2018, 04:09 PM   #6
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If teams are going to put so many resources into stopping the pass, doesn't that make it easier to run against? Hence, why would you need a supreme talent back there for that?

I like you. But just no.

Go spend resources and money on the defense or another tight end.
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Old 12-10-2018, 04:10 PM   #7
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Per PFF grades against the Ravens, Erving Morse and Allen were all terrible in the run game, and Wylie was average.

I think the style of both Hunt and Mahomes has made us forget how average to bad the line is, particularly in the run game.

I don't even understand the argument you are making based on the Ravens game: do you think the Chiefs win vs the Ravens easily with Hunt on the field?

I do generally agree you can take some pressure off Mahomes, you can do that with having better receivers who can get more separation (most of the 2nd string guys were bad against the Ravens, Harris was surprisingly alright) or by a slightly better running back, but the biggest difference is having a line that isn't constantly getting its shit pushed in resulting in Mahomes getting hit every play.
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Old 12-10-2018, 04:12 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by O.city View Post
Ware just ran for 75 yards on 15 carries.

Why on gods green earth would you want to spend a high pick or even a lot of money in a running back?
I'll say this - there were at least 2 plays where Hunt doubles up what Ware did including one that might've been housed.

He picked up about 6 yards on a screen pass at one point where a DB managed to get around and bring him down by the foot. He had no business getting taken down there but he just cannot get up to speed and his ability to change directions is limited at best. Hunt would've picked up 20+ with relative ease on that play and Ware just kinda trundled forward and got tripped up.

If I saw a guy that could take us back to a 'Hunt' level from a 'Ware' level, I'd drop a 2nd on that in a heartbeat. Wouldn't think twice. But I wouldn't spend cap money on a FA because that money's gone and it ain't comin' back.

The 2nd would be a guy who slots perfectly into our salary structure even through the beginning of Pat's big deal. It's not an ideal use of the pick but it's a salvageable asset that gets the offense juiced back up at nominal cost.

Because I trust this franchise to find another long-term RB. I'm not so confident that it can use that 2nd to find a damn pass rusher.
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Old 12-10-2018, 04:15 PM   #9
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I'll say this - there were at least 2 plays where Hunt doubles up what Ware did including one that might've been housed.

He picked up about 6 yards on a screen pass at one point where a DB managed to get around and bring him down by the foot. He had no business getting taken down there but he just cannot get up to speed and his ability to change directions is limited at best. Hunt would've picked up 20+ with relative ease on that play and Ware just kinda trundled forward and got tripped up.

If I saw a guy that could take us back to a 'Hunt' level from a 'Ware' level, I'd drop a 2nd on that in a heartbeat. Wouldn't think twice. But I wouldn't spend cap money on a FA because that money's gone and it ain't comin' back.

The 2nd would be a guy who slots perfectly into our salary structure even through the beginning of Pat's big deal. It's not an ideal use of the pick but it's a salvageable asset that gets the offense juiced back up at nominal cost.

Because I trust this franchise to find another long-term RB. I'm not so confident that it can use that 2nd to find a damn pass rusher.
Sure, Ware isn't Hunt.

But the difference just isn't enough to make me want to spend a lot of resources on it. Like you said, sure, if you wanna spend a 2nd on it I'd think about it. I personally still wouldn't but I get it.

I'd go sign Jaylen Richard to a deal for about 10 mil guaranteed and be smarter than everyone else.
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Old 12-10-2018, 04:17 PM   #10
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As you said, this franchise has a rb golden horseshoe up it's ass. It can find them. They'll find one, someone who'll be the next Hunt.

They're gonna have to get creative on defense but I think I kind of see a way for that to happen fairly somewhat easily but that's gonna require some money and luck.
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Old 12-10-2018, 04:31 PM   #11
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Per PFF grades against the Ravens, Erving Morse and Allen were all terrible in the run game, and Wylie was average.

I think the style of both Hunt and Mahomes has made us forget how average to bad the line is, particularly in the run game.

I don't even understand the argument you are making based on the Ravens game: do you think the Chiefs win vs the Ravens easily with Hunt on the field?

I do generally agree you can take some pressure off Mahomes, you can do that with having better receivers who can get more separation (most of the 2nd string guys were bad against the Ravens, Harris was surprisingly alright) or by a slightly better running back, but the biggest difference is having a line that isn't constantly getting its shit pushed in resulting in Mahomes getting hit every play.
But here's the problem - you have a couple approaches with fixing the line, and neither are fun.

Approach 1) The LDT path - draft a guy late, watch him struggle for a year maybe even 2, see him develop and eventually get a nice player for your efforts.

Approach 2) Use day 1 or 2 capital on a guy and STILL face about a 25% chance that he's just not very good. Y'know, the Cameron Erving dilemma.

Approach 3 is just get blind ****ing lucky and stumble into Will Shields in the 3rd round. Don't bank on Approach 3. Shields was the 8th interior lineman taken in that class; it ain't often that the 8th most popular player at a position turns into a HoFer.

So unless you're wiling to use your 1st rounder on Cody Ford (who would WRECK in this system), I just don't see a clean path to making this a lockdown OL. And I certainly don't think I see the value in it given Mahomes ability to make someone like Erving look serviceable and Wylie look downright good.
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Old 12-10-2018, 04:56 PM   #12
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But here's the problem - you have a couple approaches with fixing the line, and neither are fun.

Approach 1) The LDT path - draft a guy late, watch him struggle for a year maybe even 2, see him develop and eventually get a nice player for your efforts.

Approach 2) Use day 1 or 2 capital on a guy and STILL face about a 25% chance that he's just not very good. Y'know, the Cameron Erving dilemma.

Approach 3 is just get blind ****ing lucky and stumble into Will Shields in the 3rd round. Don't bank on Approach 3. Shields was the 8th interior lineman taken in that class; it ain't often that the 8th most popular player at a position turns into a HoFer.

So unless you're wiling to use your 1st rounder on Cody Ford (who would WRECK in this system), I just don't see a clean path to making this a lockdown OL. And I certainly don't think I see the value in it given Mahomes ability to make someone like Erving look serviceable and Wylie look downright good.
Would you draft a OL that high this year? If he's there at our pick I probably would but man.

We really need some draft luck on the D. They need a real blue chipper in the middle at ILB and those generally aren't available where we're picking.
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Old 12-10-2018, 05:06 PM   #13
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Would you draft a OL that high this year? If he's there at our pick I probably would but man.

We really need some draft luck on the D. They need a real blue chipper in the middle at ILB and those generally aren't available where we're picking.
No.

I'd continue to roll with JAGs on the interior and rely on Mahomes ability to use his legs to find space and still make throws. We have limited capital and while I'd love to give him premier talent everywhere, protect him with top-end lineman and also fix the defense, we just can't.

The defense being better and allowing us to be a little less aggressive on offense would do a lot to keep him from getting hit as often and do more on the scoreboard.

I wouldn't completely disregard the OL but it would be similar to the LDT approach (and the McKenzie pick) - take some late guys with standout physical attributes and try to coach them up. Just keep washing them through every year and if 1 out of every 4 pan out, you'll be okay there.

The issue is gonna be at tackle. Those you can't just **** around with and sooner or later we'll run out of money to keep paying Schwartz and Fisher. We're gonna need a high pedigree T at some point that can come in and start in year 2 at worst. If that's not something we look at this year, it probably needs to be next year.

I just don't think that's an area that 'needs to be fixed' right this very minute. Our tackles are fine. They aren't perfect but they're better than most.
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Old 12-10-2018, 05:13 PM   #14
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I'll say this - there were at least 2 plays where Hunt doubles up what Ware did including one that might've been housed.

He picked up about 6 yards on a screen pass at one point where a DB managed to get around and bring him down by the foot. He had no business getting taken down there but he just cannot get up to speed and his ability to change directions is limited at best. Hunt would've picked up 20+ with relative ease on that play and Ware just kinda trundled forward and got tripped up.

If I saw a guy that could take us back to a 'Hunt' level from a 'Ware' level, I'd drop a 2nd on that in a heartbeat. Wouldn't think twice. But I wouldn't spend cap money on a FA because that money's gone and it ain't comin' back.

The 2nd would be a guy who slots perfectly into our salary structure even through the beginning of Pat's big deal. It's not an ideal use of the pick but it's a salvageable asset that gets the offense juiced back up at nominal cost.

Because I trust this franchise to find another long-term RB. I'm not so confident that it can use that 2nd to find a damn pass rusher.
That is a tough game to play though. There were a couple runs that Ware made a really quick decision and hit the hole with really good speed and there was just a **** hair of an opening.

I think there were a few Hunt tries too hard to make something happen and bounces it out for a loss because those guys were fast as hell.

Maybe neither happens. IDK

But I don't think you can take a look at Ware's game and say, "YEP - first rounder. Right now."
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Old 12-10-2018, 05:15 PM   #15
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Besides that, when I made the thread about paying fools top tier contracts, the RB with the most guaranteed money (I think, I didn't sort by guaranteed money) is Saquon Barkley.

My head exploded. I had to clean brains off the wall and everything.

That pick is mind numbingly stupid.
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