Let's talk about the Patriots

[cmh6476]

too soon?

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I was absolutely floored that we didn't get PF call on Bailey hitting Luck on the sideline or Houston hitting him when he was basically out of bounds.

Luck's feet were clearly in-bounds. He was trying to tip toe the sideline.

The one that got me was the DPI by Jordan Lucas. Face guarding is legal in the NFL, as long as you don't touch the WR. He obviously DID touch the WR, even though it was really light.

In the regular season, that would have been DPI every time.

[stevegroganfan]

Originally Posted by T-post Tom

Brady hasn't won a road playoff game since he was 29.

I give Patriots roughly a 50% chance to win this game which is obviously more of a chance than Vegas gives them.

Patriots post season record outside of Foxborough with Brady as QB is....

8-7.... Granted 8 of those games on "neutral fields" the Super Bowl but Tom Brady obviously knows hot to win away from Foxborough.

But his home playoff losses(Baltimore/Jets) also show he is hardly invincible at home... All 3 of those home losses were not flukes. Baltimore and the Jets earned their wins and were the better team those games.

Heck in the 3 Super Bowl losses, in 2 games he helped them get the lead late and in the other game, he tossed for 500+ yards.

This gives me confidence Brady won't be a problem at all on Sunday unless he gets hurt.

All things considered(opponent and health/talent of Patriots), I really have only been disappointed in Brady in one playoff road loss. The most recent loss to the Broncos where Patriots lost 20-18 is the game. Sure Denver had a really good defense but Brady and Patriots missed on plays they normally hit. Patriots knew going into that game, Manning was shot. Manning for a QB with a shot arm played really well in big moments with his limitations and the defense he was facing.

Brady did not for too much of that game considering he is and was still a great QB at that point of his career. That loss is really the one road loss I kind of pin on Tom Brady and not the team/other factors.

Close loss in Indy(38-34) to a great Colts team led by Manning built for a dome.
First playoff loss eons ago to Denver. Really I thought refs were for Denver in a significant way -- maybe because the Patriots had won 3 damn Super Bowls recently and NFL sick of Patriots by then -- that game and one play doomed Patriots comeback chances. The near pick 6 by Champ Bailey when Patriots was throwing into Denver end zone that Ben Watson saved with a monster effort but Denver still scored TD from 1 yard out which pretty much won them the game.

No doubt that HFA is real but fans can overstate it. Players can benefit from crowd by helping draw off sides penalties and probably refs on a few marginal calls.

KC deserves to be called best team in the AFC throughout this regular season. I think Patriots fans who argue that KC on average wasn't a little better than the Patriots on average this regular season are out to lunch.

But while KC hasn't been decimated by injuries and is relatively healthy from what I can understand, the loss of Hunt is greater than the loss of Josh Gordon. And I like Gordon and feel he is a real loss to the Patriots in a game like this.

And I may be wrong but I think BB has done a little better job than Andy Reid in building a team for playoff football in bad weather. For example, I believe part of the reason Patriots have a traditional fullback on the roster and other teams don't is bad weather/power football when it is needed.

Add up, all of those factors and I think of this game as pretty darn close to a coin flip.

If the weather is truly a non factor like it would be at perhaps 35 to 85 degrees, I'd probably give KC a 60% shot at winning it given they are at home and have an explosive offense that is hard to contain.

[suzzer99]

I think bsroyals has that Andy Kaufman/Tom Green disease where he isn't happy unless he's being contrary and getting booed for it.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Superturtle

I actually think we'll get the favorable calls with home cooking this time around.

It's interesting. Blakeman's regular season crew has one of the lower home win percentages in the league (38%).

But they also are about 10% below the league average on even calling penalties at all, especially defensive penalties.

I mean anything can happen, but I expect the calls to be more even, but few.

[bsroyals54]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

I think bsroyals has that Andy Kaufman/Tom Green disease where he isn't happy unless he's being contrary and getting booed for it.

Yea, nothings more exciting than a room full of people agreeing with each other.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Luck's feet were clearly in-bounds. He was trying to tip toe the sideline.

The one that got me was the DPI by Jordan Lucas. Face guarding is legal in the NFL, as long as you don't touch the WR. He obviously DID touch the WR, even though it was really light.

In the regular season, that would have been DPI every time.

Yeah the Lucas one seemed lucky. But when the ball is underthrown and the receiver has to come back for it, the refs give a lot of leeway.

Dumbass Michaels kept calling for the late hit on Houston, but Luck was trying to turn the corner and get the first down. He wasn't just running OOB to end the play. Houston had no way of knowing he was going to step OOB right before the hit and he didn't even shove Luck that hard. I would have been seriously pissed if they called that a penalty. Shut up Michaels. Go back to jerking off to the sound of your own voice.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by stevegroganfan

I give Patriots roughly a 50% chance to win this game which is obviously more of a chance than Vegas gives them.

Patriots post season record outside of Foxborough with Brady as QB is....

8-7.... Granted 8 of those games on "neutral fields" the Super Bowl but Tom Brady obviously knows hot to win away from Foxborough.

But his home playoff losses(Baltimore/Jets) also show he is hardly invincible at home... All 3 of those home losses were not flukes. Baltimore and the Jets earned their wins and were the better team those games.

Heck in the 3 Super Bowl losses, in 2 games he helped them get the lead late and in the other game, he tossed for 500+ yards.

This gives me confidence Brady won't be a problem at all on Sunday unless he gets hurt.

All things considered(opponent and health/talent of Patriots), I really have only been disappointed in Brady in one playoff road loss. The most recent loss to the Broncos where Patriots lost 20-18 is the game. Sure Denver had a really good defense but Brady and Patriots missed on plays they normally hit. Patriots knew going into that game, Manning was shot. Manning for a QB with a shot arm played really well in big moments with his limitations and the defense he was facing.

Brady did not for too much of that game considering he is and was still a great QB at that point of his career. That loss is really the one road loss I kind of pin on Tom Brady and not the team/other factors.

Close loss in Indy(38-34) to a great Colts team led by Manning built for a dome.
First playoff loss eons ago to Denver. Really I thought refs were for Denver in a significant way -- maybe because the Patriots had won 3 damn Super Bowls recently and NFL sick of Patriots by then -- that game and one play doomed Patriots comeback chances. The near pick 6 by Champ Bailey when Patriots was throwing into Denver end zone that Ben Watson saved with a monster effort but Denver still scored TD from 1 yard out which pretty much won them the game.

No doubt that HFA is real but fans can overstate it. Players can benefit from crowd by helping draw off sides penalties and probably refs on a few marginal calls.

KC deserves to be called best team in the AFC throughout this regular season. I think Patriots fans who argue that KC on average wasn't a little better than the Patriots on average this regular season are out to lunch.

But while KC hasn't been decimated by injuries and is relatively healthy from what I can understand, the loss of Hunt is greater than the loss of Josh Gordon. And I like Gordon and feel he is a real loss to the Patriots in a game like this.

And I may be wrong but I think BB has done a little better job than Andy Reid in building a team for playoff football in bad weather. For example, I believe part of the reason Patriots have a traditional fullback on the roster and other teams don't is bad weather/power football when it is needed.

Add up, all of those factors and I think of this game as pretty darn close to a coin flip.

If the weather is truly a non factor like it would be at perhaps 35 to 85 degrees, I'd probably give KC a 60% shot at winning it given they are at home and have an explosive offense that is hard to contain.

The weather is going to be much better now. If it ends up being 25 or so and dry, the weather conditions on Sunday will be WAY better than they were on Saturday, when they torched the Colts six ways to Sunday.

[Sassy Squatch]

Originally Posted by bsroyals54

Yea, nothings more exciting than a room full of people agreeing with each other.

Hallelujah. Although I've dialed the contrarian douchiness down to a 2 or 3. Just not too much to be worked up about now. Defense is finally playing good football. Berry seems to be back for the 2 most important games of the season. Mahomes does Mahomes things. It's a great time for Chiefs fans.

[Chief_N_Bama]

Originally Posted by RobertWeathers

No Denver had good teams.

You guys have won your last 4 in DEN. Why? You had good teams, matchups and it had nothing do with altitude.

I can go thru every Pats @MIA game and tell you why they lost and won and it had nothing to do with weather.

Had enough?

You're stupid if you believe this.

If what you say is true then there should be little to no difference between a the winning % of favorites/underdogs playing at home or on the road, because after all, it's all about whose the better team. But that aint the case:

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/tre...rly_since_2003

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/tre...rly_since_2003

[Chief_N_Bama]

Originally Posted by stevegroganfan

I give Patriots roughly a 50% chance to win this game which is obviously more of a chance than Vegas gives them.

Patriots post season record outside of Foxborough with Brady as QB is....

8-7.... Granted 8 of those games on "neutral fields" the Super Bowl but Tom Brady obviously knows hot to win away from Foxborough.

But his home playoff losses(Baltimore/Jets) also show he is hardly invincible at home... All 3 of those home losses were not flukes. Baltimore and the Jets earned their wins and were the better team those games.

Heck in the 3 Super Bowl losses, in 2 games he helped them get the lead late and in the other game, he tossed for 500+ yards.

This gives me confidence Brady won't be a problem at all on Sunday unless he gets hurt.

All things considered(opponent and health/talent of Patriots), I really have only been disappointed in Brady in one playoff road loss. The most recent loss to the Broncos where Patriots lost 20-18 is the game. Sure Denver had a really good defense but Brady and Patriots missed on plays they normally hit. Patriots knew going into that game, Manning was shot. Manning for a QB with a shot arm played really well in big moments with his limitations and the defense he was facing.

Brady did not for too much of that game considering he is and was still a great QB at that point of his career. That loss is really the one road loss I kind of pin on Tom Brady and not the team/other factors.

Close loss in Indy(38-34) to a great Colts team led by Manning built for a dome.
First playoff loss eons ago to Denver. Really I thought refs were for Denver in a significant way -- maybe because the Patriots had won 3 damn Super Bowls recently and NFL sick of Patriots by then -- that game and one play doomed Patriots comeback chances. The near pick 6 by Champ Bailey when Patriots was throwing into Denver end zone that Ben Watson saved with a monster effort but Denver still scored TD from 1 yard out which pretty much won them the game.

No doubt that HFA is real but fans can overstate it. Players can benefit from crowd by helping draw off sides penalties and probably refs on a few marginal calls.

KC deserves to be called best team in the AFC throughout this regular season. I think Patriots fans who argue that KC on average wasn't a little better than the Patriots on average this regular season are out to lunch.

But while KC hasn't been decimated by injuries and is relatively healthy from what I can understand, the loss of Hunt is greater than the loss of Josh Gordon. And I like Gordon and feel he is a real loss to the Patriots in a game like this.

And I may be wrong but I think BB has done a little better job than Andy Reid in building a team for playoff football in bad weather. For example, I believe part of the reason Patriots have a traditional fullback on the roster and other teams don't is bad weather/power football when it is needed.

Add up, all of those factors and I think of this game as pretty darn close to a coin flip.

If the weather is truly a non factor like it would be at perhaps 35 to 85 degrees, I'd probably give KC a 60% shot at winning it given they are at home and have an explosive offense that is hard to contain.

1. HFA is independent of any fans opinion and the data is incontrovertible.

2. I think Sunday will demonstrate that the difference between BB and AR is that BB has had the benefited of elite QB play while AR has been just making due.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Yeah the Lucas one seemed lucky. But when the ball is underthrown and the receiver has to come back for it, the refs give a lot of leeway.

Not when the defender doesn't turn his head. Face guarding in the NFL is pretty black and white - you touch the WR, it's a penalty. It happened in the Saints game and it wasn't called but the defender never touched him. The Chiefs got away with one there.

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Dumbass Michaels kept calling for the late hit on Houston, but Luck was trying to turn the corner and get the first down. He wasn't just running OOB to end the play. Houston had no way of knowing he was going to step OOB right before the hit and he didn't even shove Luck that hard. I would have been seriously pissed if they called that a penalty. Shut up Michaels. Go back to jerking off to the sound of your own voice.

If you watch the slow-mo replay, BOTH of Lucks feet are still in bounds, one right in front of the other, when Houston makes contact. He wasn't going out of bounds, he was trying to tightrope the sideline.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by bsroyals54

Yea, nothings more exciting than a room full of people agreeing with each other.

FWIW, I'm not asking you to stop being you.

Just dial down the refs stuff, at least until during/after the game.

This is really a time like no other, at least not in most our lifetimes. Let's try to enjoy it.

[Imon Yourside]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Not when the defender doesn't turn his head. Face guarding in the NFL is pretty black and white - you touch the WR, it's a penalty. It happened in the Saints game and it wasn't called but the defender never touched him. The Chiefs got away with one there.



If you watch the slow-mo replay, BOTH of Lucks feet are still in bounds, one right in front of the other, when Houston makes contact. He wasn't going out of bounds, he was trying to tightrope the sideline.

The noncall on Luck was obvious to anyone not named Al Michaels, Luck was trying to pickup the first down and Houston said get down bitch.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Not when the defender doesn't turn his head. Face guarding in the NFL is pretty black and white - you touch the WR, it's a penalty. It happened in the Saints game and it wasn't called but the defender never touched him. The Chiefs got away with one there.

Probably. But if you're running stride for stride with the receiver, then he suddenly stops because the ball is overthrown and you crash into him - I don't think that's a penalty. The refs give leeway for the laws of physics.

[Beef Supreme]