*** Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository

[duncan_idaho]

The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one.

Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time?

Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository!

Royals Top Prospects, 2017

This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services.

Spoiler!

Format: POS/Name/2017 Projected Final Level

1) 3B/OF Hunter Dozier, MLB. Dozier bounced back from a disastrous 2015 campaign that had many wondering, myself included, if he was wrecked. His strong offensive performance in 2016 saw Dozier recapture the mature approach that many liked coming up, while also starting to tap into his above-average raw power for the first time.

In addition to his success at the plate, Dozier also proved he could at least HANDLE an OF spot, which could put him in the conversation for 2017 playing time at the major leagues. If the Royals DO end up trading Cheslor Cuthbert, Dozier could find a decent amount of MLB playing time sliding between RF and 3B. With Moustakas recovering from knee surgery, he likely will need more regular breaks from the field. And the streaky Paulo Orlando is just not an intriguing short-side platoon partner for Jarrod Dyson.

2) LHP Matt Strahm, MLB. Strahm just barely skates under the rookie eligibility rules for a pitcher, so he can be included here. Royals fans already got a taste of the lefty’s abilities, as he used his above-average fastball and slurve to dominate out of the pen in 2016. For him to translate that dominance to the rotation, Strahm will need to maintain his velocity (92-94) and continue to improve a changeup that flashed average at times.

If the changeup becomes a weapon he can lean on against righties, Strahm could be a very solid mid-rotation starter and fringe ToR/No. 2 type (think Danny Duffy-lite).

3) RHP Josh Staumont, AAA. This one could blow up on me and look really silly by this time next year, but I’m encouraged by what we saw from Staumont late last year. He showed significantly improved control down the stretch for Northwest Arkansas, including some impressive playoff starts, while maintaining the big-time K ability. That trend continued in the Arizona Fall League.

If Staumont’s control holds, the Royals have a guy with a plus fastball, plus-plus curve, and average change (with a slider that could develop into a real weapon as he matures). He’ll start next season at AAA and could be an addition to the MLB bullpen or even the rotation before the season ends.

4) RF Jorge Bonifacio, AAA. Boni, like Dozier, had a bounceback season in 2016 with the bat, and also played 15-20 pounds lighter than the year before, which added some nice defensive utility according to reports I’ve gotten. He now looks like a guy could provide solid/average RF production in the major leagues… Average defense paired with potential to put up a .275/.335/.450 line. While that’s not all-star level, it IS playable. Especially at pre-arbitration dollars. He’ll get another year in Omaha to refine his approach, and likely be in the mix of a 2018 mini-youth movement… unless moved for MLB reinforcements.

5) C Meibrys Viloria, Low-A (Lexington). I haven’t seen him in person, but I like the pedigree. You’ve got a lefthanded hitting catcher with the defensive ability to stick behind the plate. He was a big-bonus guy out of Colombia (nearly $500k). And his offensive performance has been highly impressive early, with a good combination of power, plate discipline, and contact skills.

He’s forever away from the majors, just now clearing rookie ball, but Viloria is the most exciting prospect KC has had at Idaho Falls since someone on this board was gushing about a 16-year-old SS tearing it up.

6) 1B Ryan O’Hearn, AAA. O’Hearn is a guy who has never gotten a lot of hype from scouts, but he continues to be a strong producer. He’s someone who likely will strikeout about 25 percent of the time at the big-league level, but has the ability to be a .500+ SLG guy. That plays. He also has shown good patience at the plate, posting above-average OBPs at every level.

Bold prediction: I won’t be shocked if O’Hearn takes over at 1B for KC in 2018/2019 and provides similar offensive production to Hosmer out of the gate. He’s probably never going to be a consistent plus average (.290+) hitter, but .270 with 25 HR is something within reach for him. He’ll get his first shot at AAA in 2017.

7) RHP AJ Puckett, A+. Puckett is a high floor, low-ceiling guy who performed about as you’d expect in 2016 after being the Royals’ first pick in the 2016 Rule IV Draft. He’s not flashy, but Puckett does profile as a solid potential back-end starter. Good fastball command and an above-average changeup are his calling cards. If Puckett finds a reliable breaking ball to put batters away, this could tick up. Great athlete, very similar to Jake Odorizzi in that regard.

8) RF Khalil Lee, Low-A (Lexington). Lee was a two-way player in HS and many viewed him as a pitcher first as a pro, but the Royals drafted him as an OF and were reward with a strong debut campaign. Lee is not a big guy, but he produced solid power numbers despite that. He’s a dynamic athlete who could contribute with power and speed.

9) C Chase Vallot, High-A (Wilmington). Vallot has an intriguing bat, with plus raw power. Got off to a great start in 16 before being sidelined and then sidetracked by injury. RH bat may be good enough to push him out from behind the plate, where he has good tools but a long way to go.

10) RHP Jake Junis and RHP Alec Mills (AAA). I'm copping out here and including both at No. 10 because they're so similar. Like Puckett, they each project as a serviceable back of rotation starter. Similar stuff and profiles, though Junis has shown a little better strikeout ability and may have a smidge more upside as a result.

Others of note:

SS/CF Marten Gasparini. Production has been bad for this toolsy player, but Gasparini has speed and pop that jump out at you. At only 19, need to be patient with him... this European signee was even less polished when signing at 16 than the typical Latin America prospect.

OF Seuly Matias. Loud, loud tools. Matias profiles as a classic RF... big-time power potential. He's a long ways from the majors but is one of the Royals' biggest bonus babies from LA.

RHP Ashe Russell. 2014 1st rounder saw his velocity disappear last year and was quickly shut down. He's intriguing one way or the other, even if he ends up as another notch in the belt of the TINSTAAPP saying.

2B Corey Toups. O'Hearn's HS teammate has been an above-average producer for an up-the-middle player. His small stature hides a surprising amount of pop. Could turn into a Mark Grudzielanek type of offensive second baseman at his peak - solid average, lots of 2Bs.

RHP Scott Blewett, LHP Foster Griffin, RHP Nolan Watson - all three have underwhelmed as pros but were drafted in the supplemental round. Stuff and projectability for each is a positive. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of them take a Cody Reed-like step forward this season and crack the 50-75 range on prospect lists. They all have the natural ability.

SS/2B Ricky Aracena - Jose Altuve-sized Aracena is a switch hitting middle infielder who can flat out run. Switch hitter with a good approach.

RHP Pedro Fernandez - I'm still a believer in his stuff, even if he is destined for the pen. Was having a nice 2016 start until injuries derailed him right after his promotion to AA.

Sirs not Appearing in this Prospect List:

RHP Kyle Zimmer. Same story, different year. The Royals are hopeful they FINALLY found the cause of Zimmer's achy shoulder. If they really did, and he can stay healthy, the talent/potential is exciting.

OF Bubba Starling. Never trust a guy named Derek.

[duncan_idaho]

DJ -

I would need to spend a few hours massaging the data to get to a breakdown of more advanced stats by first half/second half splits...

But if you just look at first/second half splits from 2014-16, you see crazy variance from Perez as the seasons wear on and he gets worn down.

First half/Second half Stat
.770/.626 OPS
.186/.139 ISO
.276/.230 AVG
.308/.257 OBP

And really, you see the drastic drop across the board.

In addition to those basic stats, the eye test also shows you a guy who becomes less and less selective as the season goes along. Honestly, at times he looks like he just wants to hack and get the AB over as quickly as possible.

I think more rest would allow him to carry those first half performances over quite a bit more.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[DJ's left nut]

But some guys are just first half hitters. And when it's a guy that's as remarkably aggressive as Perez, isn't it likely that pitchers just do a better job of exploiting his aggressive tendencies as the season progresses?

There's no question that he needs more rest but as a fan of the only guy in baseball that rivals Perez in terms of being overworked - Yadier Molina - I've seen that it isn't a season long thing that tends to surface with him. Molina's first and second half splits are virtually identical and in fact his 2nd half splits tend to be better, but it's his performance shortly after those breaks (rare though they may be) that shows a spike.

These catchers that are getting flogged aren't necessarily breaking down in August anymore than they are in May. It's on consecutive start #10, 11, 12, etc.... and you can run into that just as badly early in the year as you can later on.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

But some guys are just first half hitters. And when it's a guy that's as remarkably aggressive as Perez, isn't it likely that pitchers just do a better job of exploiting his aggressive tendencies as the season progresses?

There's no question that he needs more rest but as a fan of the only guy in baseball that rivals Perez in terms of being overworked - Yadier Molina - I've seen that it isn't a season long thing that tends to surface with him. Molina's first and second half splits are virtually identical and in fact his 2nd half splits tend to be better, but it's his performance shortly after those breaks (rare though they may be) that shows a spike.

These catchers that are getting flogged aren't necessarily breaking down in August anymore than they are in May. It's on consecutive start #10, 11, 12, etc.... and you can run into that just as badly early in the year as you can later on.

I'd give that more credence if we started seeing Sal's first half numbers take a hit with each progressive season. ML pitches are too smart to forget that Sal swings at everything and go "It's a new year, why don't I throw this guy a 95er down the middle?"

Sal gets punished more than any other catcher in baseball (due to his size and the amount of foul balls that clip him) and his exhaustion was evident at the tail end of each of the last three seasons.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

But some guys are just first half hitters. And when it's a guy that's as remarkably aggressive as Perez, isn't it likely that pitchers just do a better job of exploiting his aggressive tendencies as the season progresses?

There's no question that he needs more rest but as a fan of the only guy in baseball that rivals Perez in terms of being overworked - Yadier Molina - I've seen that it isn't a season long thing that tends to surface with him. Molina's first and second half splits are virtually identical and in fact his 2nd half splits tend to be better, but it's his performance shortly after those breaks (rare though they may be) that shows a spike.

These catchers that are getting flogged aren't necessarily breaking down in August anymore than they are in May. It's on consecutive start #10, 11, 12, etc.... and you can run into that just as badly early in the year as you can later on.

This is where the eye test has to come in. If you watched him everyday, I think you'd see a guy whose approach is bad to start with and gets even worse as he gets tired/worn down.

Your point about multiple days in a row is a good one, but I think that becomes even more of a factor as the year goes on. The cumulative grind makes that even worse.

Ultimately, i think it is worth experimenting with using him at DH 1x a week to see if you can pick up those vanishing 100-150 OPS points.

The rigors of the position would likely still be a factor, but if you get a .770/.700 half split instead of .770/.620, that's valuable unless you have a bat that demands those DH abs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[DJ's left nut]

Thought experiment - what if you decrease the 'rest' benefit gained from sitting Perez by as little as 10% by having him take ABs as DH? Wouldn't that be enough to eliminate the benefit of his 4-5 AB's/week at DH?

Remember, hitting's often as mental as much as anything and on days that he's DHing, he's still out there looking at tape, taking swings in the cage and generally staying tuned into the game. If his days off are genuine "I will not be playing you except in the case of catastrophic injury" days off, that allows him to just unwind and mentally relax that day.

And, as anyone that's taken swings in the cage can tell you, those damn practice swings can take a fair amount out of you. I've had cage days where the next day my right leg was just gone. Now granted, I'm a stupid, stupid hitter who will load too much to try to generate power that my bitch frame just doesn't have, but hitting is still a lot of wear on your legs/back even if you're smart about it and the DH can't just go up there cold to hit. He has to take real, 'game action' caliber swings to be able to go up there and hit. Those will add up quickly just as 'dry humping' a reliever will.

A catcher playing DH is going to have 4 times a game where he goes into the tunnel and taxes those legs a bit just to get himself ready to hit. And it's the legs that you really wanted to pull back on anyway, is it not?

Like I said - if you want to rest the guy then rest him. Sit his ass down. Because if you really want to know what a fully charged Salvy gets you in August, having him DH once or twice a week may not be how to figure it out. And when I'm not convinced that he's going to be a net benefit as the DH over most replacement level hitters anyway, I just don't see the gain being worth the potential drag on his recovery times.

The 500 ABs he takes as a catcher are far FAR more important than the 100 he may take as a DH in your scenario. So nix those 100 altogether to try to maximize the return on the 500.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Thought experiment - what if you decrease the 'rest' benefit gained from sitting Perez by as little as 10% by having him take ABs as DH? Wouldn't that be enough to eliminate the benefit of his 4-5 AB's/week at DH?

Remember, hitting's often as mental as much as anything and on days that he's DHing, he's still out there looking at tape, taking swings in the cage and generally staying tuned into the game. If his days off are genuine "I will not be playing you except in the case of catastrophic injury" days off, that allows him to just unwind and mentally relax that day.

And, as anyone that's taken swings in the cage can tell you, those damn practice swings can take a fair amount out of you. I've had cage days where the next day my right leg was just gone. Now granted, I'm a stupid, stupid hitter who will load too much to try to generate power that my bitch frame just doesn't have, but hitting is still a lot of wear on your legs/back even if you're smart about it and the DH can't just go up there cold to hit. He has to take real, 'game action' caliber swings to be able to go up there and hit. Those will add up quickly just as 'dry humping' a reliever will.

A catcher playing DH is going to have 4 times a game where he goes into the tunnel and taxes those legs a bit just to get himself ready to hit. And it's the legs that you really wanted to pull back on anyway, is it not?

Like I said - if you want to rest the guy then rest him. Sit his ass down. Because if you really want to know what a fully charged Salvy gets you in August, having him DH once or twice a week may not be how to figure it out. And when I'm not convinced that he's going to be a net benefit as the DH over most replacement level hitters anyway, I just don't see the gain being worth the potential drag on his recovery times.

The 500 ABs he takes as a catcher are far FAR more important than the 100 he may take as a DH in your scenario. So nix those 100 altogether to try to maximize the return on the 500.

I would be fine with that. I also know Ned Yost isn't going to rest him nearly that much. Because Ned.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I would be fine with that. I also know Ned Yost isn't going to rest him nearly that much. Because Ned.

I feel your pain.

Your 26 year old backstop started 128 games behind the dish last year.

My 33 year old catcher started 145.

Honestly, I can't even wrap my head around that. ****ing guy is 33 years old and our brilliant manager started him ONE HUNDRED AND FORTY FIVE GAMES behind the plate.

Thank God for his various hand injuries over the years because without them that window-licking reerun in our dugout would've started him 140 games/season each of the last 4 seasons.

145 games.....Jesus.

[Sure-Oz]

@JoshVernier610: #Royals new defensive end Jorge Soler. https://twitter.com/JoshVernier610/s...349632/photo/1

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I feel your pain.



Your 26 year old backstop started 128 games behind the dish last year.



My 33 year old catcher started 145.



Honestly, I can't even wrap my head around that. ****ing guy is 33 years old and our brilliant manager started him ONE HUNDRED AND FORTY FIVE GAMES behind the plate.



Thank God for his various hand injuries over the years because without them that window-licking reerun in our dugout would've started him 140 games/season each of the last 4 seasons.



145 games.....Jesus.

If he hadn't missed 10 days with the thought bruise, I'm sure Perez would have been at 140+ again, too.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[lewdog]

I liked when the Royals sucked and I could catchup on this thread once per week.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

If he hadn't missed 10 days with the thought bruise, I'm sure Perez would have been at 140+ again, too.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Is that like a brain freeze?

[jimidollar]

Brain wave.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Is that like a brain freeze?

Lol. Goddam Tapatalk autocorrect.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[alnorth]

The owners approved the new CBA by a vote of 29-1. The Rays were the only team that voted no.

[Discuss Thrower]

Tapatalk can go **** itself.