Chiefs 538: Refs are going to make teams pass more.

Direckshun · 09-21-2019, 09:37 PM

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-to-pass-more/

Can NFL Refs Do What Analysts Never Could: Get Coaches To Pass More?
They’re flagging holds at a sky-high rate, which is bad news for running plays.
By Josh Hermsmeyer
Sep. 19, 2019, at 2:24 PM

Through the first two weeks of the season, holding penalties in the NFL are at an all-time high.1 Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised. Heading into the 2019 season, the NFL competition committee mandated that referees enforce offensive holding more strictly than they have in the past. The points of emphasis document published by the NFL states that “back-side” holding — action that occurs behind where the ball carrier is running — will be more closely monitored.

A play from the Cleveland Browns’ and the Tennessee Titans’ matchup in Week 1 helps illustrate what the NFL is trying to prevent. The play shown below is a counter run to the left, away from the “strong” side of the offensive line. The idea is to fool the defense into thinking that because there’s an extra blocker to the right,2 you’ll run that direction. To help sell the deception, Cleveland running back Nick Chubb takes a false step toward the right and then quickly cuts across the field in front of the quarterback and heads left, looking for a hole.

Chubb ends up finding some room to run, but only because the majority of his linemen were breaking the rules. While the actions of No. 85 David Njoku best match the description of backside holding, the referee probably could have thrown flags for a number of penalties on this run. There’s an old saying in football that you can call holding on any play, and officials now appear to want to. Refs are calling these fouls at a rate that is unprecedented in recent NFL history.

Offensive holding penalties in the first two weeks of the season rose 78 percent this year, from 82 in 2018 to 146 in 2019. If the current rate of holding penalties called continues over the course of the entire year, we might wonder: Are there winners or losers from the new rule emphasis?

If we look at the number of holding penalties called on each NFL team year-over-year since 2009, there is some evidence indicating that teams take a portion of their holding penalties with them from one season to the next.3 Teams with many holding penalties called on them in 2018 — such as Washington, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Denver and Indianapolis — might be negatively impacted by the new rule emphasis the most.

Meanwhile, teams such as Chicago, the L.A. Rams, Pittsburgh and San Francisco were largely able to avoid holding penalties last season and may be in better shape than others if they continue their by-the-book performances.4

Of course, it could also be the case that all teams will be similarly affected by the increased number of holding calls. The year-to-year stability of the penalty at the team level isn’t terribly strong, and the league is now cracking down on a very specific type of holding. But even if the increase in holding calls is relatively constant across the league, there may be another way for teams to gain an edge in light of the new rules emphasis.

It turns out that holding is more likely to be called on a running play. From 2009 to 2018, holding was called on 2636 rushing attempts and 1673 passing attempts,5despite the fact that the majority of plays over that period were passes. Since 61.2 percent of holding calls on these plays occur when rushing, it suggests that running is more risky, and therefore less valuable.

NFL teams hardly need further incentive to call more pass plays, but nevertheless, here is potentially another reason to move away from the run game. Teams that pass more often than they run would stand to benefit the most from the new emphasis on back-side holding. Perhaps the officials will do what analysts have been unable to do all these years; that is, finally convince the NFL to reevaluate the frequency with which they run the ball.

htismaqe · 09-21-2019, 09:39 PM

Good thing we have Mahomes, huh?

Hog's Gone Fishin · 09-21-2019, 09:41 PM

It's already cost Mahomes an easy 500 yard game

TomBarndtsTwin · 09-21-2019, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

It's already cost Mahomes an easy 500 yard game

Yup.

Was just thinking the same thing.

The 72 yard TD pass to Mecole that wasn’t . . . . . .

Red Dawg · 09-21-2019, 09:54 PM

Refs don't call holding on the NE OL so who cares.

BWillie · 09-21-2019, 09:58 PM

Yeah but we hold and so more pass pick plays than like any other team.

Ubeja Vontell · 09-21-2019, 09:59 PM

Who wants to see a seven on seven, flag football?

**J Diddy** · 09-21-2019, 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ubeja Vontell

Who wants to see a seven on seven, flag football?

I believe that you have conquered all there is to conquer as a poster on a bb. You should retire while you’re at the top of your game. Don’t be all Michael Jordan and hang on too long.

**jjchieffan** · 09-21-2019, 10:21 PM

Meanwhile, teams such as Chicago, the L.A. Rams, Pittsburgh and San Francisco were largely able to avoid holding penalties last season and may be in better shape than others if they continue their by-the-book performances.

Pittsburgh?? Bullshit! They, like the Patriots, are just allowed to get away with more. Those guys are some of the worst teams in the league to hold. They just get preferential treatment by the zebras. Maybe they should change the wording to make it more true. The teams who get away with it now, will continue to get away with it, whereas, the rest of the league is screwed.

Ubeja Vontell · 09-21-2019, 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by J Diddy

I believe that you have conquered all there is to conquer as a poster on a bb. You should retire while you’re at the top of your game. Don’t be all Michael Jordan and hang on too long.

Dude...

https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=221019

..so be cool, ok?

Ubeja Vontell · 09-21-2019, 10:32 PM

As the weather changes,.....passing???

**J Diddy** · 09-21-2019, 10:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ubeja Vontell

Dude...

https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=221019

..so be cool, ok?

Still think picking flowers was brilliant. Glad you researched me though. Shows that I’m in your head.

Ubeja Vontell · 09-21-2019, 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by J Diddy

Still think picking flowers was brilliant. Glad you researched me though. Shows that I’m in your head.

Actually you're on my leg humping away frantically,

**J Diddy** · 09-21-2019, 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ubeja Vontell

Actually you're on my leg humping away frantically,

Yeah like I said. In your head.

rtmike · 09-21-2019, 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by J Diddy

Yeah like I said. In your head.

If you think about it, good one, lol.

09-21-2019, 09:37 PM
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $4313447	538: Refs are going to make teams pass more. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-to-pass-more/ Can NFL Refs Do What Analysts Never Could: Get Coaches To Pass More? They’re flagging holds at a sky-high rate, which is bad news for running plays. By Josh Hermsmeyer Sep. 19, 2019, at 2:24 PM Through the first two weeks of the season, holding penalties in the NFL are at an all-time high.1 Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised. Heading into the 2019 season, the NFL competition committee mandated that referees enforce offensive holding more strictly than they have in the past. The points of emphasis document published by the NFL states that “back-side” holding — action that occurs behind where the ball carrier is running — will be more closely monitored. A play from the Cleveland Browns’ and the Tennessee Titans’ matchup in Week 1 helps illustrate what the NFL is trying to prevent. The play shown below is a counter run to the left, away from the “strong” side of the offensive line. The idea is to fool the defense into thinking that because there’s an extra blocker to the right,2 you’ll run that direction. To help sell the deception, Cleveland running back Nick Chubb takes a false step toward the right and then quickly cuts across the field in front of the quarterback and heads left, looking for a hole. Chubb ends up finding some room to run, but only because the majority of his linemen were breaking the rules. While the actions of No. 85 David Njoku best match the description of backside holding, the referee probably could have thrown flags for a number of penalties on this run. There’s an old saying in football that you can call holding on any play, and officials now appear to want to. Refs are calling these fouls at a rate that is unprecedented in recent NFL history. Offensive holding penalties in the first two weeks of the season rose 78 percent this year, from 82 in 2018 to 146 in 2019. If the current rate of holding penalties called continues over the course of the entire year, we might wonder: Are there winners or losers from the new rule emphasis? If we look at the number of holding penalties called on each NFL team year-over-year since 2009, there is some evidence indicating that teams take a portion of their holding penalties with them from one season to the next.3 Teams with many holding penalties called on them in 2018 — such as Washington, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Denver and Indianapolis — might be negatively impacted by the new rule emphasis the most. Meanwhile, teams such as Chicago, the L.A. Rams, Pittsburgh and San Francisco were largely able to avoid holding penalties last season and may be in better shape than others if they continue their by-the-book performances.4 Of course, it could also be the case that all teams will be similarly affected by the increased number of holding calls. The year-to-year stability of the penalty at the team level isn’t terribly strong, and the league is now cracking down on a very specific type of holding. But even if the increase in holding calls is relatively constant across the league, there may be another way for teams to gain an edge in light of the new rules emphasis. It turns out that holding is more likely to be called on a running play. From 2009 to 2018, holding was called on 2636 rushing attempts and 1673 passing attempts,5despite the fact that the majority of plays over that period were passes. Since 61.2 percent of holding calls on these plays occur when rushing, it suggests that running is more risky, and therefore less valuable. NFL teams hardly need further incentive to call more pass plays, but nevertheless, here is potentially another reason to move away from the run game. Teams that pass more often than they run would stand to benefit the most from the new emphasis on back-side holding. Perhaps the officials will do what analysts have been unable to do all these years; that is, finally convince the NFL to reevaluate the frequency with which they run the ball.
Posts: 59,288

09-21-2019, 09:39 PM	#2
htismaqe 'Tis my eye! Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Chiefsplanet Casino cash: $10269900	Good thing we have Mahomes, huh?
Posts: 100,022	1 0

09-21-2019, 09:41 PM	#3
Hog's Gone Fishin Fish are scared of me Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $1620477	It's already cost Mahomes an easy 500 yard game
Posts: 40,365

09-21-2019, 09:54 PM	#5
Red Dawg Going home eventually Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $4732858	Refs don't call holding on the NE OL so who cares. __________________ If you're not first you're last!
Posts: 30,436

09-21-2019, 09:58 PM	#6
BWillie Future NBA Finals MVP Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Earth Casino cash: $2351241	Yeah but we hold and so more pass pick plays than like any other team. __________________ Who wants free money? Use the link below to sign up at Bovada, BetOnline, Black Chip Poker and Ignition. Contact me for private deals, spot bonuses, possible rakeback or any questions! Bovada, Ignition, BetOnline, Black Chip Poker: baldeaglepoker.com Bovada Poker is back! Get up to $500 poker deposit bonus.
Posts: 46,089

09-21-2019, 09:59 PM	#7
Ubeja Vontell Banned Join Date: Aug 2019 Location: central Cali Casino cash: $10010413	Who wants to see a seven on seven, flag football?
Posts: 14,032

09-21-2019, 10:21 PM	#9
jjchieffan Supporter Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Highlandville, MO Casino cash: $3322247	Meanwhile, teams such as Chicago, the L.A. Rams, Pittsburgh and San Francisco were largely able to avoid holding penalties last season and may be in better shape than others if they continue their by-the-book performances. Pittsburgh?? Bullshit! They, like the Patriots, are just allowed to get away with more. Those guys are some of the worst teams in the league to hold. They just get preferential treatment by the zebras. Maybe they should change the wording to make it more true. The teams who get away with it now, will continue to get away with it, whereas, the rest of the league is screwed. __________________ Genesis 1:1 In the beginning, God created the Heavens and the Earth. Following the historical accounts and the genealogy from that point on, the age of the Earth is approximately 6000-7000 years old. The Big Bullshit Theory is a lie. It and the evolution theory go against real science. Satan has used our public school system to brainwash everyone into believing these lies. Be not decieved.
Posts: 12,613

09-21-2019, 10:32 PM	#11
Ubeja Vontell Banned Join Date: Aug 2019 Location: central Cali Casino cash: $10010413	As the weather changes,.....passing???
Posts: 14,032