*** Official 2018 Royals Offseason Repository ***

[duncan_idaho]

It's the end of the world as we know it... and we feel... fine?

2018 is a season of transition for the Royals, or at least it is at this point. Dayton Moore is back. Will he swing full into THE PROCESS 2.0? Or will he try to load up again and make some reload magic happen?

Pending Free Agents:
1B | Eric Hosmer | San Diego Padres, 8 years, $144 million ($5 million signing bonus; $20 million/year in Yrs 1-5; $13 million/year in Yrs 6-8 wth player opt out)

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Texas Rangers, 6, $118 million)

3B | Mike Moustaskas | Kansas City Royas, 1, $6.5 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Los Angeles Angels, 5, $98 million)

CF | Lorenzo Cain | Milwaukee Brewers, 5 years, $80 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: San Francisco Giants, 4, $68 million)

RP | Mike Minor | Texas Rangers, 3, $28 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Los Angeles Angels, 3, $35 million+ $12 million team option

SP | Jason Vargas | New York Mets, 2, $16 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Baltimore Orioles, 2, $29 million)

SS | Alcides Escobar | Kansas City Royals, 1, $2.5 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: San Diego Padres, 1, $6.5 million)

2018 MLB Draft Picks
#18
#33 - Compensation (Eric Hosmer)
#34 - Compensation (Lorenzo Cain)
#40 (Competitive Balance Round A)

Comp picks explanation:

Spoiler!

In case I, picks would be #32, 33, and 34, if Alex Cobb of Rays signs for $50 million guaranteed.

Kansas City will likely have 5 of the top 40-45 picks in the draft, and the bonus pool money should rival that of the teams drafting 1-3 in the 2017 draft. This should give KC tremendous flexibility in acquiring talent that otherwise might slip or not be "signable."

2018 Draft Names to Watch

RHP Kumar Rocker, N Oconnee HS, Georgia.

Spoiler!

Possibly goes top 10 but is a big, physical SP with ace potential. Moore and co. will be all over him if he slips a bit and could offer top 10 money at No. 16

OF Jarred Kelenic, Waukasha West HS, WI

Spoiler!

Kelenic is the top prep bat, toolsy OF. Royals would be ecstatic to have shot at him.

1B Triston Casas, American Heritage HS (FL).

Spoiler!

Tremendous raw power, best in HS bats. Royals typically like HS arms or HS bats with "special" tools. He qualifies.

RHP Carter Stewart, Eau de Gallie HS (Ga).

Spoiler!

Another big, physical specimen with huge upside. More likely to be available mid-first than Rocker.

ANY Any, Any (Any). Any current top projected pick who slides for injury concerns. Includes current top prospect prospect SP Brady Singer, U of Florida.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Heh if Soria is traded in 16 that team would have made the playoffs

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Dumping 2 years of salary. 9 million this year, 10 million next.

Next year's is a mutual option with a $1 million buyout and they sent $1 million in cash to cover the buyout for the Chisox.

It was to dump this year's $9 million.

[siberian khatru]

They're going to do the same thing with Hammel. Trade his $9 million 2018 salary, kick in $2 million for his 2019 buyout, save a net $7 million.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Man. Really thought Soria would be someone you could dump for a nothing prospect and his buyout money. His peripherals were actually really good last year.

I don't like dumping Alexander in the move at all. I think he's someone whose value is going to really increase as he refines that sinker, IMO. Think they could have moved the rest of the high priced members of the pen, given him the closer role, and sold much higher after he racked up some saves.

That's kinda my though.

I know Royals fans don't like Soria, but NOBODY likes their middle of the pen relievers. They remember the bad outings and forget the clean ones. When you look at the term/$$ that relatively solid but by no means spectacular relievers are getting on the open market, a 1 yr/$9 million deal for Soria isn't that out of bounds.

If he were a FA, he'd probably get no worse than 1/$6 million because he has handled the 9th and could again in a pinch. So if he's only $3 million overpriced, how the hell do you have to give up 5 years of solid, team controlled relief just to ditch him?

I don't get that at all. I'd imagine that Dayton really likes what he sees in Oaks and thinks he can start, but Oaks arsenal looks like a 7th inning guy to me.

{shrug} Not my circus and not my monkeys, but this one looks strange from an outsiders perspective.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

That's kinda my though.



I know Royals fans don't like Soria, but NOBODY likes their middle of the pen relievers. They remember the bad outings and forget the clean ones. When you look at the term/$$ that relatively solid but by no means spectacular relievers are getting on the open market, a 1 yr/$9 million deal for Soria isn't that out of bounds.



If he were a FA, he'd probably get no worse than 1/$6 million because he has handled the 9th and could again in a pinch. So if he's only $3 million overpriced, how the hell do you have to give up 5 years of solid, team controlled relief just to ditch him?



I don't get that at all. I'd imagine that Dayton really likes what he sees in Oaks and thinks he can start, but Oaks arsenal looks like a 7th inning guy to me.



{shrug} Not my circus and not my monkeys, but this one looks strange from an outsiders perspective.

It looks strange from the inside as well. Unless you're blinded by Soria hatred.

I hope this is the only situation where we see a valuable asset attached for a pure salary dump.

They can't afford to do something like that with Duffy. Any move of him, or Herrera, or Merrifield needs to be done to add minor league talent as a first priority.

I'm fine with dumping Hammel to some team in the same situation as the Royals last year - looking for back end rotation depth to help you get into playoff position. Same with Moss.

Just don't attach either of those guys to a valuable asset to get there.

Oaks looks like an OK back end starter for a team that isn't trying to contend. Not much else there.

Mejia looks like depth and nothing else to me.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by DeepSouth

Kennedy might actually rebound.
To get Duffy, a team needs to take Jason Hammel and Brandon Moss. That will clear the DH spot for Soler.

I'd dump Kennedy by any means necessary, up to and including offering my firstborn son. (Of course, I wouldn't, but DM should).


Dunno why people hate Hammel or Moss, they're fine. Every team needs those type of vets around, they aren't negative value. I also want Soler DH 500 PA but Moss can have the other 200 - assuming he's not at 1B all year

[tk13]

I've always said I'm not a huge fan of players like Moss, but I think he was fine last year. We got exactly what we paid for. He's a low average power hitter, and that's what we got. His OPS was over .700 and he hit 22 homers despite less ABs than previous years. If we have him 500 ABs he'd probably hit 30 homers. Otherwise he's going to hit .225 and strike out a bunch. It was still a down year for him but when you're a .225 guy a slump will put you at .200 and that's what he did.

[sedated]

Originally Posted by tk13

I've always said I'm not a huge fan of players like Moss, but I think he was fine last year. We got exactly what we paid for. He's a low average power hitter, and that's what we got. His OPS was over .700 and he hit 22 homers despite less ABs than previous years. If we have him 500 ABs he'd probably hit 30 homers. Otherwise he's going to hit .225 and strike out a bunch. It was still a down year for him but when you're a .225 guy a slump will put you at .200 and that's what he did.

I think the dislike of Moss is that he never seems to consider game situation. Even with a guy on 3rd with 1 out, he will swing for the fences and get a strikeout.

Maybe this fanbase notices it more because 2014/2015 success was based on doing all the small things right.

Same with Soria - when you have 2-3 years of an absolutely unhittable bullpen, giving up a lead in the 7th is just something that is completely foreign.

[DeepSouth]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

I'd dump Kennedy by any means necessary, up to and including offering my firstborn son. (Of course, I wouldn't, but DM should).


Dunno why people hate Hammel or Moss, they're fine. Every team needs those type of vets around, they aren't negative value. I also want Soler DH 500 PA but Moss can have the other 200 - assuming he's not at 1B all year

My thoughts on Kennedy is he's a better pitcher than what he showed in 2017. If he could pitch well in the first half of 2018, you might get something for him at the deadline.

I'd rather have one of the rule five guys in the rotation than Hammel. He does not have a future with the team. Same goes for Moss. He's gone after this year and Soler / Bonifacio needs the "at bats".

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

I'd dump Kennedy by any means necessary, up to and including offering my firstborn son. (Of course, I wouldn't, but DM should).


Dunno why people hate Hammel or Moss, they're fine. Every team needs those type of vets around, they aren't negative value. I also want Soler DH 500 PA but Moss can have the other 200 - assuming he's not at 1B all year

Salary relief now is not worth sacrificing a good player like Duffy or Merrifield - who provide value on their own - AND reducing your prospect return.

If the Royals trade Duffy, they need to maximize the prospect return.

Dumping players just to unload their salary and attaching present value to it is a great way to lower payroll without improving your future outlook at all.

[Great Expectations]

Soria averaged a WHIP of around 1.35 in his last two years here. While it isn’t awful, it is worse than average. He also followed a great bullpen and his WHIP seemed to be higher in any meaningul appearances.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

It looks strange from the inside as well. Unless you're blinded by Soria hatred.

I'm a big fan of WPA to do a rearview review of how a reliever performed in a given season. I don't think it's terribly predictive, but it does do a solid job of telling you how often a guy came in and simply did his job while also considering the leverage of a situation (higher leverage means larger changes in win probability). It isn't like a hold where a guy can get three outs but give up 2 runs and secure the hold - that outing makes a team more likely to lose and his WPA goes down. It's a very good state for relievers, IMO.

On the season, Soria had a positive WPA for the Royals last year. Now at .86 that's not an incredible figure, but it's tied with Justin Wilson who the Cubs paid a ton to get. It's ahead of a guy like Brian Shaw who just parlayed his season into a monster deal and Delin Betances.

It tells me that he was a solid pitcher last year. Now it doesn't speak to the argument that he got lucky; like I said, it's not predictive. But most of his predictive numbers tell the same story; good swinging strike rates, solid zone% (both better than Minor and Alexander) suggesting that he still hits the zone frequently and is missing enough bats to be successful. His K-BB% was top 50 among relievers last year. Both his FIP and xFIP (to address the suppressed HR rate) were very good. His GB rate improved as his FB rate also went way down (helping explain some of his HR fortune) which all led to a good SIERA. His velocity has actually recovered to his pre-surgery form; best of his career in fact.

So his rearview mirror stats say he was a solid if unspectacular reliever last year. His predictive stats say that unless he suffers a skills decline he didn't show last year that he should easily be able to duplicate that performance if not improve on it somewhat.

There are things to like in Soria's background noise so yeah, I'm with you here - this seems like a lot to give up just so you can get rid of a guy that's not really that overpaid to begin with. Surely they could've gotten a nothing prospect for him if they'd have sent $3 million over in the deal.

Just a strange trade. I just don't see the desperate need to unload Soria. He'll suffer with some HR regression next year given his switch from KC to CHW's more homer-friendly park, but otherwise he actually got a little unlucky on batted balls and strand rates (especially the strand rate) and with even a little recovery there and neutral luck, he'll more than make up for a HR rate regression.

[suzzer99]

Soria's stats don't tell the whole story imo. For 2 years running he consistently threw meatballs right down the middle in a huge % of his highest leverage spots. Seriously - there is nothing you could count on more than Soria blowing a lead when you really really needed a win. 2 quick strikes, ball, ball, meatball.

I think coming back to his old team and not performing may have put too much pressure on him and got into his head.

[Discuss Thrower]

Wonder if there's a noticeable split between Soria's performance before he said to stop referring to him as the Mexicutioner and after.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Soria's stats don't tell the whole story imo. For 2 years running he consistently threw meatballs right down the middle in a huge % of his highest leverage spots. Seriously - there is nothing you could count on more than Soria blowing a lead when you really really needed a win. 2 quick strikes, ball, ball, meatball.

I think coming back to his old team and not performing may have put too much pressure on him and got into his head.

But again - no he didn't.

If he was consistently blowing leads in high% situations, his WPA would be a mess. If he came into a bunch of 8th inning games with 2 run leads (what, an 80% likely win) and turned them into 1 or 2 run defecits, that would cripple his WPA. He did have some games like that and those dropped some nasty numbers on his WPA (we'll get to those later). If he did that often, he damn sure wouldn't have held a positive WPA on the season.

Like I said - nobody likes their 7th/8th inning relievers because when they do their job it's just a 'ho hum' moment. But 48 times in 59 games, Joakim Soria left the mound with his team having higher odds of winning than they had when he entered. So more than 80% of the time he took the mound, he did his job, high leverage and low leverage included.

But he had 4 REALLY tough outings in there (4/28, 5/29, 7/31 and 8/15), two of which were against divisional opponents - Min and Det, the other two were against recent playoff foes for KC - Bal and Oak. So those stand out something awful. And yeah, apart from a Cleveland moment, I have to imagine those are the 4 most memorable teams he could implode against.

No, there's not a single stat that tells the whole story and I'm not arguing that there is. But what I am arguing is that the stats on aggregate absolutely do tell A story and that story is that of a relatively forgettable, slightly above average reliever. That's all Soria is. His numbers say that. His gamelogs say that. His stuff says that.

Everything says that but your memory and frankly, we fans are not reliable narrators.