Chiefs Week 2 DVOA ratings

Giant Octopodes · 09-18-2019, 12:58 PM

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dv...2-dvoa-ratings

For those who don't know Football Outsiders rate each play based on how it impacts a team's expected win probability, and based on the success or failure of the totality of their plays rates the strength of a team's offense, defense and special teams. It's more complicated than that but that's the broad strokes version. They normally adjust for the opponent but can't without adequate data so that starts after week 4.

Right now, the Chiefs are rated 4th overall, with the 2nd ranked offense, just behind the Cowboys. Their defense and special teams are both roughly league average (16th and 17th respectively).

It is worth noting of course that two of the teams rated above them (the Ravens and Patriots) faced the historically, almost impossibly bad Dolphins, so the gap between them could narrow or reverse after opponent adjustments are in place. That being said both of the opponents the Chiefs have faced are below average as week, so they won't be immune to negative adjustments themselves.

What's the point of all this? The next Chief's game should be interesting, as they face the Ravens with the 3rd ranked offense, 9th ranked defense, and top ranked special teams. We'll see a lot about each team and how accurate or how far off the current ratings are. It'll be by far the best matchup of the week from a DVOA standpoint.

Pasta Little Brioni · 09-18-2019, 01:42 PM

Flush all Patriot trash

Clyde Frog · 09-18-2019, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

Flush all Patriot trash

And they get another "bye" this week when they play the Jets.

**TinyEvel** · 09-18-2019, 02:23 PM

Don't matter. We have Mahomes, and we are #1 in the DEVO ratings which says we'll whip the Ravens.

Giant Octopodes · 09-18-2019, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TinyEvel

Don't matter. We have Mahomes, and we are #1 in the DEVO ratings which says we'll whip the Ravens.

It'll be interesting to see either way. The Chiefs have 3 games this year against the top 10 in DVOA to this point this year, the Ravens, Patriots, and Packers. The Patriots face the Cowboys, Eagles, Chiefs and Ravens, and the Ravens face the most though- the Patriots, the 49ers, the Chiefs, the Seahawks, the Rams. The only ones they don't face of the top 6 are themselves and the Cowboys.

So those seem to be the games to watch most closely to see how the records will play out in the AFC and what two of those teams will earn a bye. This will be the first of those so I can't wait. Should be a great one.

09-18-2019, 12:58 PM
Giant Octopodes Starter Join Date: Sep 2019 Casino cash: $10000400	Week 2 DVOA ratings https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dv...2-dvoa-ratings For those who don't know Football Outsiders rate each play based on how it impacts a team's expected win probability, and based on the success or failure of the totality of their plays rates the strength of a team's offense, defense and special teams. It's more complicated than that but that's the broad strokes version. They normally adjust for the opponent but can't without adequate data so that starts after week 4. Right now, the Chiefs are rated 4th overall, with the 2nd ranked offense, just behind the Cowboys. Their defense and special teams are both roughly league average (16th and 17th respectively). It is worth noting of course that two of the teams rated above them (the Ravens and Patriots) faced the historically, almost impossibly bad Dolphins, so the gap between them could narrow or reverse after opponent adjustments are in place. That being said both of the opponents the Chiefs have faced are below average as week, so they won't be immune to negative adjustments themselves. What's the point of all this? The next Chief's game should be interesting, as they face the Ravens with the 3rd ranked offense, 9th ranked defense, and top ranked special teams. We'll see a lot about each team and how accurate or how far off the current ratings are. It'll be by far the best matchup of the week from a DVOA standpoint.
Posts: 250

09-18-2019, 01:42 PM	#2
Pasta Little Brioni Consuming CP souls Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: U.S.A. Casino cash: $3968880	Flush all Patriot trash __________________ **Official TFWdemB Trivia Commisioner**
Posts: 68,554

09-18-2019, 02:23 PM	#4
TinyEvel Just a li'l Evel Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Bald. Goatee. Jorts. Casino cash: $5407131	Don't matter. We have Mahomes, and we are #1 in the DEVO ratings which says we'll whip the Ravens.
Posts: 11,810