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Old 02-03-2019, 08:08 PM  
kccrow kccrow is offline
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Mock Offseason 2/3/19

I went with not cutting Berry in this rendition just to see where things could stand and appease Mr. DJ for a little while .

The Chiefs fire Bob Sutton in the offseason and hire Steve Spagnuolo, a former Reid assistant and Jim Johnson protege, as defensive coordinator. (I hit on both of these so I guess now it's time to hone the rest in...).

Chiefs beginning cap space of $42,967,636 using estimate of $190,000,000 salary cap per OTC (NFL stated range of $187.0 to 191.1 million).

Extensions

WR Tyreek Hill: It's imperative to lock up the team's most dynamic player long-term and give Mahomes a weapon for the foreseeable future. Hill must be retained and he won't get cheaper.
5 years/$95.0m contract extension with $65m in guarantees, $42m guaranteed at signing, and $20m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 6.13 2020: 18.75 2021: 19.25 2022: 19.75 2023: 18.25 2024: 15.00
Notes: Hill will earn the NFL Proven Performance Escalator for the last year of his rookie deal which means his base salary will increase to the Right of First Refusal tender amount. That amount was $1.907 million in 2018 and increases by the percentage the cap increases with a minimum of 5% and a maximum of 10%. The NFL has stated a cap range between $187.0 and $191.1 million, which means Tyreek's 2019 salary will be between $2.012 and $2.056 million. I will err on the high side at 2.056 for tenders and PPEs.

DL Chris Jones: I've been preaching the same thing Andy Reid mentioned not too long ago: the quickest route to the QB is a straight line and having defensive lineman that can get after them up the middle is better than good edge rushers in today's NFL that sees QBs get the ball out quicker than ever. Jones has stepped up his game considerably and we should project that to continue.
5 years, $81.0m contract extension with $40.0m guaranteed at signing including $20.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 5.98 2020: 13.00 2021: 15.00 2022: 16.00 2023: 17.00 2024: 16.00

Note: These moves and Tyreek's performance escalator reduce 2019 cap space by $9.336m.

Tags/Tenders
FS Jordan Lucas: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.05m (Hoping KC reaches an extension agreement to lower the hit)
DL Justin Hamilton: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
PK Harrison Butker: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Markus Kemp: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Gehrig Deiter: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus


Cuts

SS Daniel Sorensen: Sorensen hasn't been much of an asset since signing his extension, routinely missing tackles and being subpar in coverage assignments. The Chiefs ailments in the back end are extensive and require re-tooling. The move frees up an additional $2.693m in cap space in 2019 and $4.75m in 2020 with dead money of $2.0m in 2019.

FA Acquisitions

DE Preston Smith (WAS): Smith is a very solid run defender and gets a ton of pressure on the QB despite less than eye-popping sack totals. He's the type of edge player this team needs on the outside to help stop the bleeding in the run game. He shouldn't command the type of contract that Dee Ford will with his gaudy sack total that will make some GM's go gaga. I think a Whitney Mercilus-type deal taken to current cap dollars is his value.
4 years, $35.00m with $7.00m signing bonus and $13.40m fully guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 8.25 2020: 8.25 2021 8.75 2022: 9.75

CB Ronald Darby (PHI): Darby is a bit of a gamble coming off an ACL injury, but if he's on track in March he could still see a pay day similar to Allen Robinson. I'm going to go all out here and sign him to a lucrative deal that has some protections in it should the Chiefs need to release him after one season. He's a far better corner than anyone on this board seems to want to admit and is becoming one of the better all-around corners in the NFL, plus he's still only 25 with his prime ahead of him.
5 years/$65.5m with $16.5m guaranteed, a $10.5m signing bonus, and $14.25m in potential additional guarantees including roster bonuses of $3.0m in 2020 and $4.0m in 2021 as well as a salary guarantee of $7.25m in 2020 if he's on the roster the 5th day of those respective league years. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 8.25 2020: 12.50 2021: 13.75 2022: 14.75 2023: 16.25

TE Maxx Williams (BAL): Williams has had alot of injuries throughout his career but he's still extremely young and has flashed what made him a high round pick. He'd make an excellent number two type with solid hands, route running, and blocking ability.
3 years/$9.0m with $1.5m signing bonus, and $1.0m roster bonuses in 2020 and 2021 if he's on the roster the 5th day of the new league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.00 2020: 3.25 2021: 3.75

RB T.J. Yeldon (JAX): Yeldon is a nice complimentary back that really excels in the passing game and could be a sure-fire weapon under Andy Reid, especially given his penchant for using backs on screens and down the field. Yeldon may look for a starting gig but if there are no takers, he's going to have plenty of options to be part of a committee once again and there may not be a better fit for him.
2 years/$4.5m with $1.4m signing bonus and $1.9m guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.75 2020: 2.75

SS Andrew Adams (TB): I've been high on Adams since he left UConn and every time he gets a shot to play he does well. He doesn't have many starts with only 4 in each of the past two seasons, but he'd be a nice cheap safety to bring in and compete for a starting gig and at worst should be solid depth.
2 years/$4.0m with $1.0m signing bonus and $1.5m guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.80 2020: 2.20

All PS on Minimal Deals that likely don't affect Top-51.

Let Walk

DE Allen Bailey, CB Orlando Scandrick, TE Demetrius Harris, FS Josh Shaw, RB Spencer Ware, OC Mitch Morse, FS Ron Parker, WR De'Anthony Thomas, OLB Frank Zombo, CB Steven Nelson, ILB Terrence Smith, WR Chris Conley, FB Anthony Sherman

Players Already Signed Notes & Guesstimates
Damien Williams: OTC released details of the Williams extension, noting that it was 2 years, 5.1m with cap hits of 1.73 and 2.83 million in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

Austin Reiter: The extension for Reiter was released a couple weeks back and for all intensive purposes has cap hits of 1.46 and 2.76 million in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

Trades

The Chiefs franchise tag Dee Ford at the onset of free agency, then trade him and their 2nd round pick acquired from the Los Angeles Rams (Peters) to the Green Bay Packers for a 2019 1st #30 (from Saints) and 2019 4th ~118 (from Redskins).

Just a note here that I think KC is going to do something aside from just letting Ford walk. They should be able to get compensation higher than a late 3rd with a simple tag and trade. I recall when KC franchised Jared Allen then flipped him for a 1st and two 3rds. I don't think Ford commands that type of compensation, but he's certainly worth a mid-2nd and 4th, which is what my trade proposition essentially is.

Cap Estimate Net of Transactions: 4.5m

Draft

Chiefs have a projected 6th round compensatory selection for Bennie Logan.

1. LB Mack Wilson, Alabama (6'1" 240)
1. FS Nassir Adderley, Delaware (6'0" 195) [f/GB - Ford]
2. CB Julian Love, Notre Dame (5'11" 190)
3. TE Josh Oliver, San Jose State (6'5" 250)
4. WR Gary Jennings Jr., West Virginia (6'1" 215) [f/GB - Ford]
5. DT Cortez Broughton, Cincinnati (6'2" 290)
6. LB Ryan Connelly, Wisconsin (6'2" 240)
6. FS Kareem Orr, Chattanooga (5'11" 195) [Comp - Logan]
7. WR Tony Brooks-James, Oregon (was RB) (5'9" 180) [f/SF - Streater]


Roster (Not representative of 53)

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Chase Litton
RB: Damien Williams, T.J. Yeldon, Darrel Williams
FB: UDFA or some vet min guy
TE: Travis Kelce, Maxx Williams, Josh Oliver
WR: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, Gary Jennings Jr., Byron Pringle, Tony Brooks-James, Marcus Kemp, Gehrig Deiter
OT: Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz
OG: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Andrew Wylie, Cameron Erving (OC), Ryan Hunter, Khalil McKenzie
OC: Austin Reiter, Jimmy Murray
DE: Justin Houston, Preston Smith, Breeland Speaks, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Rob McCray
DT: Chris Jones, Derrick Nnadi, Xavier Williams, Cortez Broughton, Justin Hamilton
LB: Anthony Hitchens, Mack Wilson, Dorian O'Daniel, Ben Niemann, Reggie Ragland, Ryan Connelly
CB: Ronald Darby, Kendall Fuller, Julian Love, Charvarius Ward, Tremon Smith, D'Montre Wade
SS: Eric Berry, Andrew Adams, Armani Watts
FS: Nassir Adderley, Jordan Lucas, Kareem Orr, Eric Murray
ST: Harrison Butker, Dustin Colquitt, James Winchester
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Old 02-03-2019, 09:11 PM   #2
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We really need 6 safeties?
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Old 02-03-2019, 09:41 PM   #3
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We really need 6 safeties?
Eric Berry probably won't be playing yet. Has anybody read about any surgery yet? Seems like they would want to get this done soon.

Eric Murray could be released.
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Old 02-03-2019, 10:48 PM   #4
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I admire your work with contracts and trying to make sense of the cap dollars for KC.

I think signing Maxx Williams and drafting Josh Oliver would go along way to helping the TE position. I would be happy if KC did either. I am leaning towards Jesse James right now.

I also like many of your ideas on improving the secondary. Julian Love would be a great draft pick in the 2nd round. I like Darby but it will be interesting to see the cost on his contract. I would not want that to be another expensive contract that we look back and regret. I watched Nassir Adderley and I really liked him at first but he has really climbed up the draft projections and I am not sure he is worth the 1st round pick. Not a complaint with you picking him, just a comment on Adderley's rise. I would be greatly surprised if Andy Reid would allow Daniel Sorensen to be cut.

I also like going early with a draft pick to help the ILB position. Although I have watched Alabama a bunch I've never watched full games where I was just watching Mack Wilson to see if he is worth a 1st for KC. I will have to pay more attention.

Last year at RB I was really surprised that KC went out and signed so many free agents but it really paid off for them, so maybe this year signing T.J. Yeldon would be a good idea. RB is a position where a team can get a lot of value without spending a lot of cap money.

I really don't know what our defensive line needs will be after converting to a 4-3 so I will be curious of how that works out.

I would also like to add a swing OT. Schwartz and Fisher have been remarkable with health but we are an injury away from being really weak there. I really don't want Cameron Erving moving into LT or RT. I have been looking at former Patriot and Cowboy, Cameron Fleming that might be able to fill that need without breaking the bank. He started this year for Tyron Smith against Washington and New Orleans and Cowboys won both games.

Anyway good job on trying to figure out what the Chiefs might do to be a better team for next year.
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Old 02-04-2019, 05:48 AM   #5
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I really like this one. I think it's pretty realistic in the sense that the Chiefs keep Berry and Houston and also shows that they can get a lot done on both sides of the ball, I really like adding RB/TE in free agency and the drafting for defense. You add at all levels of the defense too which I think was definitely needed.

Once you've signed a free agent TE, I'd maybe consider WR instead in the third if a guy I liked dropped there.

A note on the cap though, OTC states that the cap is $28m for the Chiefs but it looks like they have already factored in various escalators etc that I'm not sure if you factored in after the starting figure of $42.9m you quote. Where did this figure come from?
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Old 02-04-2019, 06:13 AM   #6
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I really like this one. I think it's pretty realistic in the sense that the Chiefs keep Berry and Houston and also shows that they can get a lot done on both sides of the ball, I really like adding RB/TE in free agency and the drafting for defense. You add at all levels of the defense too which I think was definitely needed.

Once you've signed a free agent TE, I'd maybe consider WR instead in the third if a guy I liked dropped there.

A note on the cap though, OTC states that the cap is $28m for the Chiefs but it looks like they have already factored in various escalators etc that I'm not sure if you factored in after the starting figure of $42.9m you quote. Where did this figure come from?
I haven't altered my figure that was present the past month but they have. I account for some changes such as Hill's PPE. I'm not sure what changed so drastically on their end, but it's alot more than PPEs and I'll have to look into it. They did, apparently, give PPEs to Hill, Murray, and Robinson just by glancing at their salaries.
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Old 02-04-2019, 07:54 AM   #7
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I dont want Darby, give me Landon Collins over him all day long
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Old 02-04-2019, 09:08 AM   #8
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I dont want Darby, give me Landon Collins over him all day long
Agreed.

Sign a safety, draft a CB.
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Old 02-04-2019, 09:30 AM   #9
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I dont want Darby, give me Landon Collins over him all day long
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Agreed.

Sign a safety, draft a CB.
Landon Collins is a strong safety, if you don't cut Berry (which, as discussed at length, maybe they can't even if they wanted to) then you can't have Collins.

I'm not against signing a safety, but it probably has to be a free safety.
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Old 02-04-2019, 09:32 AM   #10
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You guys think the Giants are stupid enough to not at least franchise Collins? He's the best safety in the NFL. No way he's available.
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Old 02-04-2019, 09:45 AM   #11
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You guys think the Giants are stupid enough to not at least franchise Collins? He's the best safety in the NFL. No way he's available.
Right?

Collins is getting tagged at worst. More likely is that the Giants simply make him the highest paid safety in the game and move along.

I don't see any chance he's available.
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Old 02-04-2019, 09:47 AM   #12
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Plus, I feel like those wanting Collins haven't really learned their lesson on paying a shitload of money to a safety that isn't great in coverage and is more of a super athletic linebacker.

If I'm paying a safety big money, he better be Earl Thomas or Ed Reed.
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Old 02-04-2019, 09:56 AM   #13
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Plus, I feel like those wanting Collins haven't really learned their lesson on paying a shitload of money to a safety that isn't great in coverage and is more of a super athletic linebacker.

If I'm paying a safety big money, he better be Earl Thomas or Ed Reed.
the guy had 125 tackles, 5 int, 13 pass defense under our new DC
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Old 02-04-2019, 10:08 AM   #14
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Collins may not be available but I’m out on paying Darby, coming off of an ACL, that much money. I’d rather extend Fuller for less at that position and find young cheap talent at corner in the draft.
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Old 02-04-2019, 10:51 AM   #15
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Collins may not be available but Im out on paying Darby, coming off of an ACL, that much money. Id rather extend Fuller for less at that position and find young cheap talent at corner in the draft.
This all day.
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