Welp. Looks like we need a RB.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

I wouldn’t trump our defensive needs in the draft for RB—but I hope we can snag a guy similar to Hunt. Someone who can catch it well and close out games with some tough running. Any RB is going to face light boxes as long as they’re loaded at receiving positions and Mahomes is QB, so having that hard to tackle back was so nice.

I'd get back to looking for what we were looking for the last time we were RB shopping and ended up with Hunt.

Gimme an underutilized guy with some wiggle, good first step and a stout frame. At the time I was heavy on the Kamara bandwagon and now I think I like Jordan Scarlett the most out of the current crop.

The character issues are the trouble here. He might just be a shithead and if so that won't fly. If not, Rodney Anderson from OU is talented as hell but the knee injury is worrisome (pretty sure he has another major injury in the last year or two as well).

Higdon out of Michigan might be a 3rd day find. Weber from Ohio State maybe goes before I'd want him. I like Jacobs from 'Bama but he may just stay in to boost his stock presuming he'd start next year. If not, there's some serious talent there. There's a small school kid name Hills out of Slippery Rock; he'll be a SPARQ champion, IMO. It's hard to grade a kids vision with that kind of competition, though. If he doesn't have any, he'll end up one of those Knile Davis, big, fast and shitty types.

It's not a good year to need a RB, IMO. Fortunately the depth of the last 2 classes may keep demand down but I don't see a lot of heavy hitters here and the mid-late round choices are going to be crapshoots and complementary backs.

[Great Expectations]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I'd get back to looking for what we were looking for the last time we were RB shopping and ended up with Hunt.

Gimme an underutilized guy with some wiggle, good first step and a stout frame. At the time I was heavy on the Kamara bandwagon and now I think I like Jordan Scarlett the most out of the current crop.

The character issues are the trouble here. He might just be a shithead and if so that won't fly. If not, Rodney Anderson from OU is talented as hell but the knee injury is worrisome (pretty sure he has another major injury in the last year or two as well).

Higdon out of Michigan might be a 3rd day find. Weber from Ohio State maybe goes before I'd want him. I like Jacobs from 'Bama but he may just stay in to boost his stock presuming he'd start next year. If not, there's some serious talent there. There's a small school kid name Hills out of Slippery Rock; he'll be a SPARQ champion, IMO. It's hard to grade a kids vision with that kind of competition, though. If he doesn't have any, he'll end up one of those Knile Davis, big, fast and shitty types.

It's not a good year to need a RB, IMO. Fortunately the depth of the last 2 classes may keep demand down but I don't see a lot of heavy hitters here and the mid-late round choices are going to be crapshoots and complementary backs.

Rodney Anderson has the skill set to dominate in our offense. He is a fantastic receiver. He broke his leg early in his frosh year vs Tenn, had a serious neck injury in fall camp the following year, and then this year tore his ACL. None of the injuries would affect his performance next year, but the track record isn’t good, but if he is available in the 4th or 5th I think we have to grab him because the upside is so big.

I really like Devin Singletary and Justice Hill. I’m guessing that Darrell Henderson will be a drafted late first early second. I think we can find a talented guy in the 3rd or 4th again. Juwan Washington would be interesting if he declares.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

Rodney Anderson has the skill set to dominate in our offense. He is a fantastic receiver. He broke his leg early in his frosh year vs Tenn, had a serious neck injury in fall camp the following year, and then this year tore his ACL. None of the injuries would affect his performance next year, but the track record isn’t good, but if he is available in the 4th or 5th I think we have to grab him because the upside is so big.

I really like Devin Singletary and Justice Hill. I’m guessing that Darrell Henderson will be a drafted late first early second. I think we can find a talented guy in the 3rd or 4th again. Juwan Washington would be interesting if he declares.

Love Anderson's skill-set but A) Hand-waiving an ACL seems odd and b) the whole track record is just shockingly bad.

Let's be honest, the neck injury alone will take him off a lot of draft boards outright. And injuries don't go down once you start facing larger, faster men in the pros.

A RB is a 3-4 year position at this point so if I thought I could get 3 years out of him before his legs literally detached from his body, I'd be on board with a 3rd day pick. I just don't know that you can bank on that. He has one of the worst injury histories you'll ever see.

[UChieffyBugger]

The fact is folks like to talk about "RB's are a dime a dozen and you can find a decent one In the mid rounds", but really the facts say otherwise. Look at the best RB's In the game right now.

Gurley= first round pick
Elliot= first round pick
Gordon= first round pick
Barcley= first round pick
Ingram= first round pick
McCaffrey= first round pick
Fournette= first round pick

Etc etc, so the VAST majority of the best backs have been picked In the first round. Granted some slip through the net like Bell, Hunt and Kamara, but if we really want to make sure our offense is great for many more seasons to come, then I'd be inclined to try and get the very best back we can. I mean even the Pats got Michel In the first round last season, The Seahawks got Penny In the first round also.

So imo if we're gonna get a RB, then we should try and get a potential transformative one. One who could be even better than Kareem moving forward. Because tbh could you imagine a Gurley, Gordan or Mccaffrey In this offense? It would be insane. Next draft could be perfect too as I don't see many teams needing to draft a back as most already have their guy and others already drafted one last year. So we should really have a good shot at the likes of Bryce Love and Damien Harris, two guys who look pretty decent to me.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger

Gurley= first round pick
Elliot= first round pick
Gordon= first round pick
Barcley= first round pick
Ingram= first round pick
McCaffrey= first round pick
Fournette= first round pick

.

The Jaguars will be drafting in the top 5. I don't know who Barcley is, but I'm assuming you mean Barkley and the Giants will absolutely regret taking him over a QB.

Ingram is just a piece in a RB by committee and honestly Melvin Gordon hasn't been anything special. McCaffrey is running his mind off, and the Panthers are about to miss the playoffs again. They probably really wish they had taken Lattimore or Humphrey right now.

EE and Gurley have worked out, so that's 2 out of 7. gg

[pugsnotdrugs19]

I don’t like the idea of investing in the RB position super high for any team, let alone a team that has the best quarterback in football at 23 years old.

Just look at the list of running backs who have won the last several Super Bowls. They just aren’t a necessary commodity to winning a title. Most teams go the committee route and it makes sense because it’s too easy to lock in on those stud backs and over use them. Teams key on them and offenses use them to a fault. (See the Chiefs 2015 before and after Jamaal)

I don’t mind using a 2nd round pick on one or anything, but the truth is that the drop off from even a stud to 2nd tier guy isn’t enough to warrant major investments. Look at the Cowboys right now. They have a freaking stud RB and it doesn’t even matter much because their QB sucks ass.

[UChieffyBugger]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

I don’t like the idea of investing in the RB position super high for any team, let alone a team that has the best quarterback in football at 23 years old.

Just look at the list of running backs who have won the last several Super Bowls. They just aren’t a necessary commodity to winning a title. Most teams go the committee route and it makes sense because it’s too easy to lock in on those stud backs and over use them. Teams key on them and offenses use them to a fault. (See the Chiefs 2015 before and after Jamaal)

I don’t mind using a 2nd round pick on one or anything, but the truth is that the drop off from even a stud to 2nd tier guy isn’t enough to warrant major investments. Look at the Cowboys right now. They have a freaking stud RB and it doesn’t even matter much because their QB sucks ass.

We'll most likely be picking late 20s unless we trade up. The facts are the facts, the majority of the very best RB's are taken in the first round. If you want to pick one In the later rounds in the hope of striking gold again then fine, but I'd rather get more of a certain thing than gamble again. Major defensive talents are not likely to be there when we pick In the first round anyway so why not try and get a stud RB to ensure that our strength gets stronger?

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger

We'll most likely be picking late 20s unless we trade up. The facts are the facts, the majority of the very best RB's are taken in the first round. If you want to pick one In the later rounds in the hope of striking gold again then fine, but I'd rather get more of a certain thing than gamble again. Major defensive talents are not likely to be there when we pick In the first round anyway so why not try and get a stud RB to ensure that our strength gets stronger?

Silly. There's going to be some very good defensive lineman available at the end of the first simply due to the sheer volume of quality players coming out this year. There's even a few I'd spend a pick to move up for. You'll get a solid RB end of 2nd or end of 3rd this year because there isn't a back that'll likely go in round 1.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Silly. There's going to be some very good defensive lineman available at the end of the first simply due to the sheer volume of quality players coming out this year. There's even a few I'd spend a pick to move up for. You'll get a solid RB end of 2nd or end of 3rd this year because there isn't a back that'll likely go in round 1.

Right, and again beyond all this, it’s clear you just don’t need a superstar back to build a great team these days. For many teams they are the focal point of an offense and have been for the Chiefs for several years now, but when you’ve got the QB thing figured out, it’s a luxury position. I certainly don’t want to trot trash out there, but we won’t be and I don’t even think we are right now.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger

The fact is folks like to talk about "RB's are a dime a dozen and you can find a decent one In the mid rounds", but really the facts say otherwise. Look at the best RB's In the game right now.

Gurley= first round pick
Elliot= first round pick
Gordon= first round pick
Barcley= first round pick
Ingram= first round pick
McCaffrey= first round pick
Fournette= first round pick

Etc etc, so the VAST majority of the best backs have been picked In the first round. Granted some slip through the net like Bell, Hunt and Kamara, but if we really want to make sure our offense is great for many more seasons to come, then I'd be inclined to try and get the very best back we can. I mean even the Pats got Michel In the first round last season, The Seahawks got Penny In the first round also.

So imo if we're gonna get a RB, then we should try and get a potential transformative one. One who could be even better than Kareem moving forward. Because tbh could you imagine a Gurley, Gordan or Mccaffrey In this offense? It would be insane. Next draft could be perfect too as I don't see many teams needing to draft a back as most already have their guy and others already drafted one last year. So we should really have a good shot at the likes of Bryce Love and Damien Harris, two guys who look pretty decent to me.

Yeah. I’m out on that deal.

I swear to ****ing God I will quit football if the Chiefs have the best QB in modern football and decide NOPE. BUILD AROUND THE RUN GAME.

Done with football. Forever.

[CoMoChief]

The thing is...today's game is a QB/passing game, and Mahomes/Chiefs are taking this new offensive trend literally and then some. After seeing the Chiefs in 2018, teams are going to start loading up their offense with as many weapons as possible. Not saying teams don't already try to do that, but teams see what Mahomes, Hunt, Watkins, Hill and Kelce can do to them. Too many really good players to deal with and plan for, and teams get crosseyed and overwhelmed. Reid doesn't run the ball. The RB in this offense is an extension of the passing game. I know people like Ware, but he's not the back for this offense. Hunt was perfect for this offense, as we've seen..which makes this entire issue a big kick in the balls. Need someone more elusive, someone who doesn't run so upright and has better hands.

The 1st rd RB isn't as valuable as it once was. They're the most beat up, worn down players on the field with the shortest careers. No need to invest a lot of money and/or high draft picks for that position. RB's grow on trees. The difference in production from a 1st rd pick vs a late rd or UDFA is not much, at least on this team it wouldn't with the amount of talent on offense.

Team needs defense bad. I hope the Chiefs can resign Jones, sign a couple defensive guys in FA and use their 1st 3 picks all on defense. The good thing is, the defense is so bad, it's not going to matter what defensive players they select in the draft because they need help at every position, so they should be able to draft BPA. Then maybe some backup fatties on the OL in the later rds.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by CoMoChief

The difference in production from a 1st rd pick vs a late rd or UDFA is not much, at least on this team it wouldn't with the amount of talent on offense.

It actually kind of is. Now, going the UDFA route has some merit. If you want a good back otherwise then you're at least spending a day 2 pick.

Only really going to look at rushing yards (put the cutoff at 400) but there are backs that contribute more in the passing game than rushing game and plenty that are good at both. What you'll see in looking at the stats is that the guys that tend to be high on the list in rushing yards are also higher on the list in receiving yards by running backs, especially in the top 15.

1. T. Gurley (1,175 yds 15 TD)- Round 1/10
2. E. Elliott (1,150 yds 6 TD)- Round 1/4
3. S. Barkley (954 yd 8 TD)- Round 1/2
4. P. Lindsay (937 yds 8 TD) - UDFA
5. J. Conner (909 yds 12 TD) - Round 3/105
6. L. Miller (876 yds 3 TD) - Round 4/97
7. C. McCaffrey (863 yds 5 TD) - Round 1/8
8. A. Peterson (856 yds 7 TD) - Round 1/7
9. K. Hunt (824 yds 7 TD) - Round 3/86
10. M. Gordon (802 yds 9 TD) - Round 1/15
11. D. Johnson (761 yds 6 TD) - Round 3/86
12. J. Mixon (755 yds 5 TD) - Round 2/48
13. M. Brieda (744 yds 3 TD) - UDFA
14. A. Kamara (742 yds 11 TD) - Round 3/67
15. C. Carson (704 yds 4 TD) - Round 7/249
16. N. Chubb (694 yds 7 TD) - Round 2/35
17. I. Crowell (680 yds 6 TD) - UDFA
18. S. Michel (649 yds 5 TD) - Round 1/31
19. A. Jones (642 yds 7 TD) - Round 5/182
20. K. Johnson (641 yds 3 TD) - Round 2/43
21. P. Barber (635 yds 4 TD) - UDFA
22. F. Gore (616 yds 0 TD) - Round 3/65
23. J. Howard (612 yds 5 TD) - Round 5/150
24. M. Mack (583 yds 4 TD) - Round 4/143
25. T. Coleman (514 yds 2 TD) - Round 3/73
26. L. McCoy (478 yds 2 TD) - Round 2/53
27. D. Henry (474 yds 5 TD) - Round 2/45
28. M. Ingram (467 yds 4 TD) - Round 1/28
29. L. Murray (466 yds 5 TD) - Round 6/181
30. D. Lewis (464 yds 1 TD) - Round 5/149
31. A. Blue (446 yds 1 TD) - Round 6/181
32. D. Martin (445 yds 2 TD) - Round 1/31
33. K. Drake (439 yds 4 TD) - Round 3/73
34. A. Ekeler (430 yds 1 TD) - UDFA
35. A. Collins (411 yds 7 TD)- Round 5/171
36. T. Yeldon (401 yds 1 TD) - Round 2/36

Round 1 - 9 (25.0%)
Round 2 - 6 (16.7%)
Round 3 - 7 (19.4%)
Round 4 - 2 (5.6%)
Round 5 - 4 (11.1%)
Round 6 - 2 (5.6%)
Round 7 - 1 (2.8%)
UDFA - 5 (13.9%)


22/36 RBs (61.1%) with 400 or more yards so far are Day 2 or better picks.
15/23 RBs (65.2%) with 600 or more yards so far are Day 2 or better picks.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by kccrow

It actually kind of is. Now, going the UDFA route has some merit. If you want a good back otherwise then you're at least spending a day 2 pick.

Only really going to look at rushing yards (put the cutoff at 400) but there are backs that contribute more in the passing game than rushing game and plenty that are good at both. What you'll see in looking at the stats is that the guys that tend to be high on the list in rushing yards are also higher on the list in receiving yards by running backs, especially in the top 15.


22/36 RBs (61.1%) with 400 or more yards so far are Day 2 or better picks.
15/23 RBs (65.2%) with 600 or more yards so far are Day 2 or better picks.

And the 600 yard mark doesn't mean much; Jordan Howard made that cut and that dude has been trash this year. Put it at 700, roll Chubb in there as he's really just been a backup for half the year and you end up at 75% of the RBs (12/16) have been taken in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd rounds.

I do think there's something to be said, however, for targeting a SPARQ champion in this system. I really liked Breida coming out for exactly that reason; dude's attributes jumped off the screen.

Now you may end up with a guy who's not a polished 'pure' runner doing that, but the way Reid uses schemes to get his guys into space does a lot of the heavy lifting there. You don't need to have vision as good as Hunts to succeed in this system if you're able to identify the hole and explode into it. Know this system and be a powerful athlete and you'll probably be somewhat useful.

If the draft doesn't come together and you're left taking someone like Wes Hills in the 5th....eh, that's not the end of the world.

[BryanBusby]

"The difference in production from a 1st rd pick vs a late rd or UDFA is not much"

[DJ's left nut]

What about Ty Johnson? That's another 'Kamara candidate' IMO. Very much an underutilized guy at Maryland due to them having a guy who's probably just a better all-purpose back than him (or at the very least a higher pedigree guy). McFarland would keep a lot of really good backs on the bench.

Johnson isn't a big back but he isn't slight either. He's compact and strong - doesn't run with the kind of tenacity Hunt does but really, who does?

If you're trying to replace Hunt, you're looking at a different class because Hunt turned out to have 1st round ability and I'm just not sure we'll find that in this class. Maybe Harris, maybe Montgomery and a healthy Anderson would qualify as well. But I'm not seeing a guy in this draft that I'd say "yeah, there's a 1st round back" without hesitation.

I think Johnson is one of those 'absence of evidence is not evidence of absence' kind of finds. I don't see a reason why he CAN'T be a good RB; the tools are all there. There might be some vision questions but he's a definite potential HR hitter. He'd need some coaching up (dance less; hit the hole sooner/harder) but that's what we're gonna need to do if we're hoping to keep the investment in the position fairly reasonable.