Welp. Looks like we need a RB.

kccrow · 12-04-2018, 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoMoChief

The difference in production from a 1st rd pick vs a late rd or UDFA is not much, at least on this team it wouldn't with the amount of talent on offense.

It actually kind of is. Now, going the UDFA route has some merit. If you want a good back otherwise then you're at least spending a day 2 pick.

Only really going to look at rushing yards (put the cutoff at 400) but there are backs that contribute more in the passing game than rushing game and plenty that are good at both. What you'll see in looking at the stats is that the guys that tend to be high on the list in rushing yards are also higher on the list in receiving yards by running backs, especially in the top 15.

1. T. Gurley (1,175 yds 15 TD)- Round 1/10
2. E. Elliott (1,150 yds 6 TD)- Round 1/4
3. S. Barkley (954 yd 8 TD)- Round 1/2
4. P. Lindsay (937 yds 8 TD) - UDFA
5. J. Conner (909 yds 12 TD) - Round 3/105
6. L. Miller (876 yds 3 TD) - Round 4/97
7. C. McCaffrey (863 yds 5 TD) - Round 1/8
8. A. Peterson (856 yds 7 TD) - Round 1/7
9. K. Hunt (824 yds 7 TD) - Round 3/86
10. M. Gordon (802 yds 9 TD) - Round 1/15
11. D. Johnson (761 yds 6 TD) - Round 3/86
12. J. Mixon (755 yds 5 TD) - Round 2/48
13. M. Brieda (744 yds 3 TD) - UDFA
14. A. Kamara (742 yds 11 TD) - Round 3/67
15. C. Carson (704 yds 4 TD) - Round 7/249
16. N. Chubb (694 yds 7 TD) - Round 2/35
17. I. Crowell (680 yds 6 TD) - UDFA
18. S. Michel (649 yds 5 TD) - Round 1/31
19. A. Jones (642 yds 7 TD) - Round 5/182
20. K. Johnson (641 yds 3 TD) - Round 2/43
21. P. Barber (635 yds 4 TD) - UDFA
22. F. Gore (616 yds 0 TD) - Round 3/65
23. J. Howard (612 yds 5 TD) - Round 5/150
24. M. Mack (583 yds 4 TD) - Round 4/143
25. T. Coleman (514 yds 2 TD) - Round 3/73
26. L. McCoy (478 yds 2 TD) - Round 2/53
27. D. Henry (474 yds 5 TD) - Round 2/45
28. M. Ingram (467 yds 4 TD) - Round 1/28
29. L. Murray (466 yds 5 TD) - Round 6/181
30. D. Lewis (464 yds 1 TD) - Round 5/149
31. A. Blue (446 yds 1 TD) - Round 6/181
32. D. Martin (445 yds 2 TD) - Round 1/31
33. K. Drake (439 yds 4 TD) - Round 3/73
34. A. Ekeler (430 yds 1 TD) - UDFA
35. A. Collins (411 yds 7 TD)- Round 5/171
36. T. Yeldon (401 yds 1 TD) - Round 2/36

Round 1 - 9 (25.0%)
Round 2 - 6 (16.7%)
Round 3 - 7 (19.4%)
Round 4 - 2 (5.6%)
Round 5 - 4 (11.1%)
Round 6 - 2 (5.6%)
Round 7 - 1 (2.8%)
UDFA - 5 (13.9%)

22/36 RBs (61.1%) with 400 or more yards so far are Day 2 or better picks.
15/23 RBs (65.2%) with 600 or more yards so far are Day 2 or better picks.

DJ's left nut · 12-04-2018, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kccrow

It actually kind of is. Now, going the UDFA route has some merit. If you want a good back otherwise then you're at least spending a day 2 pick.

Only really going to look at rushing yards (put the cutoff at 400) but there are backs that contribute more in the passing game than rushing game and plenty that are good at both. What you'll see in looking at the stats is that the guys that tend to be high on the list in rushing yards are also higher on the list in receiving yards by running backs, especially in the top 15.

22/36 RBs (61.1%) with 400 or more yards so far are Day 2 or better picks.
15/23 RBs (65.2%) with 600 or more yards so far are Day 2 or better picks.

And the 600 yard mark doesn't mean much; Jordan Howard made that cut and that dude has been trash this year. Put it at 700, roll Chubb in there as he's really just been a backup for half the year and you end up at 75% of the RBs (12/16) have been taken in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd rounds.

I do think there's something to be said, however, for targeting a SPARQ champion in this system. I really liked Breida coming out for exactly that reason; dude's attributes jumped off the screen.

Now you may end up with a guy who's not a polished 'pure' runner doing that, but the way Reid uses schemes to get his guys into space does a lot of the heavy lifting there. You don't need to have vision as good as Hunts to succeed in this system if you're able to identify the hole and explode into it. Know this system and be a powerful athlete and you'll probably be somewhat useful.

If the draft doesn't come together and you're left taking someone like Wes Hills in the 5th....eh, that's not the end of the world.