How did Skyy Moore fall to us?

[Direckshun]

Largely size concerns, it seems:

The 2022 NFL Draft was another strong year for wide receiver talent, and many assumed that a run on wide receivers would happen in the first round. That panned out with the Falcons taking Drake London at No. 8 and three other receivers were taken over the next four picks. The levee breaking on wideouts led to Jahan Dotson ending up as the 16th pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, and some analysts thought Western Michigan's Skyy Moore would go late in the first round thanks to the run on receivers.

Moore was superb throughout 2021, hauling in 95 passes for 1,292 yards and 10 touchdowns. The junior also worked out well before the 2022 NFL Draft. Hence, there were some projecting him to the opening night of the draft, so some were surprised when he slid to late in the second round.

NFL team sources actually had Moore graded lower than the media hype. Some teams had him graded in the second round and others had him in Round 3. They saw some limitations with his size and thought Moore (5-10, 196) could have problems with longer cornerbacks as a pro. Thus, teams did not see a real slide with Moore.

The Kansas City Chiefs ended Moore's slide, and they are a mixed landing spot for him. On the plus side, Moore landed with an elite quarterback in Pat Mahomes and a great coaching staff led by future Hall of Fame Andy Reid. On the negative side, Moore is in a crowded depth chart, as the Chiefs have established veterans like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman and Josh Gordon. Due to the a second-round pick investment in him, Moore is assured of making the roster, but he could have a hard time breaking out in an offense that spreads the ball around and features tight end Travis Kelce. Moore will have to earn his playing time, but if he can break through to a starting job, he could turn into a very productive pro operating with Mahomes and Reid.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by RunKC

I like Skyy but it’s more about the league not being 5 star recruits. So many of its best players were not highly regarded high school recruits.

Jonathan Taylor and TJ Watt, the leaders in rushing yards and sacks, were also not highly ranked recruits.

I didn't say all 5-star recruits. I said 2 star or lower.

Remember, star rankings are like the Richter scale. It's not 'just one star' - the difference between a 2-star and 3-star guy is a pretty damn big one.

Guy's you're citing - the Rodgers, Donalds, Taylors (a 4-star who went to one of the premier RB schools in the country, FYI), Watts - these were 3 star kids. These are not analogues to Skyy Moore.

Kupp is, no question. He's exactly the kind of guy you cite here. But again - I didn't say there were NONE of them. Only that there ain't many. And the odds of Moore being another one are simply statistically EXTREMELY remote.

[BossChief]

DJ, I think you’ve given yourself paralysis by analysis on this topic.

Everything he’s going to be asked to do physically and mentally in this system are things his physical and mental traits are top notch at.

Elite acceleration
Elite hands
Crisp route running
Great after the catch ability
Understands coverages and how to get open
Effective long speed
Great beating press (albeit against lesser competition)

[kccrow]

20% isn't an outlier. It may be a minority, but such a long ways from a discussion about outliers.

Some kids simply don't transfer because of environment and bonds and so forth, not because they don't have the talent.

This entire discussion is just flawed.

[duncan_idaho]

I don't think you can make much of Moore not transferring. Really.

He only played five games his sophomore year, and while he was productive, he wasn't ungodly productive AND it was COVID year AND his team wasn't all that good.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BossChief

DJ, I think you’ve given yourself paralysis by analysis on this topic.

Everything he’s going to be asked to do physically and mentally in this system are things his physical and mental traits are top notch at.

Elite acceleration
Elite hands
Crisp route running
Great after the catch ability
Understands coverages and how to get open
Effective long speed
Great beating press (albeit against lesser competition)

And yet...13th WR taken. Seems like the NFL writ large would say there's some grade inflation going on here.

Veach risked losing him for a 5th round pick. Seems that Veach may not see him as a premier talent in his own right.

Again - I've never said that he isn't a good fit for this system. I think he'll be productive here.

I just don't think he's this all-world talent he's being painted as. I think he's very clearly a 3rd round sort of talent in an ordinary draft and depending on how these big money WR contracts work out, you may see someone EXACTLY like him in the 3rd next year.

He's just a hell of a lot more fungible than is being portrayed around here, IMO. I've seen folks saying he'll be our #1 wideout this year or that in 2-3 years we'll be building our offense around him. Man, if that's the case, we're in trouble. Because that's just not who he is.

He's a good complementary weapon. That's a fine use of the pick if he works out. But he's not some heist in the mid-2nd. That's a big ol' chunk of draft capital we used on him.

[Chris Meck]

The entire discussion is flawed.

Individuals are individuals.

the kid will either make it based on his athletic ability, intelligence, and effort, or he will not.

You cannot make blanket comparisons based on what school he played at, etc. It's fake pseudo-science.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

The entire discussion is flawed.

Individuals are individuals.

the kid will either make it based on his athletic ability, intelligence, and effort, or he will not.

You cannot make blanket comparisons based on what school he played at, etc. It's fake pseudo-science.

For years we lamented the fact that the Chiefs refused to attack the QB position in the first round and noted that the overwhelming majority of successful NFL quarterbacks, especially championship caliber ones, were first round picks.

Yet now general trends have no utility at all?

[kccrow]

You may not like him DJ, but every bit of the rest of your argument is significantly flawed to the point of absolute bullshit.

You liked Calvin Austin III. Let's talk about that in the same light. He played in the American Conference which had 84 players in the league last year (4.95%). Not exactly a ringing endorsement. I mean, the Big 12 and Pac 12 both had near double that.

The competition in the AAC was pretty bad outside of Cincinnati, which Memphis didn't play this year. While we're at it, how about we talk about the 2-for-shit burgers Austin had against the likes of East Carolina, Navy, and Tulane?

Why don't we talk about Austin's size making it a near-insurmountable mountain to establish being a better than below-average WR in the NFL? Only a few (yes, that number less than 5) have ever been Pro-Bowl level or better in the history of the league under 5'9" at WR.

I mean, Austin has speed but guys like Isaiah McKenzie have proved that small and fast doesn't necessarily mean anything but small, fast, and not very good. Realistically, McKenzie is a near-perfect physical comparison.

Austin carried a 5th round grade through much of the process but was taken in the middle of the 4th. Chances are the Steelers over-drafted him because of lack of options.


Does that all sound like a bit much? Does it seem like I'm using unfair references to evaluate your man-crush? Are conference strength, current or past player comps, and the historical significance of size absolute arguments, or should we maybe look at the actual on-field ability and make a more reasonable evaluation and projection? If you're answering yes, then you can see why I and others think your arguments against Skyy Moore sound a bit unsubstantiated.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

For years we lamented the fact that the Chiefs refused to attack the QB position in the first round and noted that the overwhelming majority of successful NFL quarterbacks, especially championship caliber ones, were first round picks.

Yet now general trends have no utility at all?

It's very different.

[DJ's left nut]

Does that all sound like a bit much? Does it seem like I'm using unfair references to evaluate your man-crush? Are conference strength, current or past player comps, and the historical significance of size absolute arguments, or should we maybe look at the actual on-field ability and make a more reasonable evaluation and projection? If you're answering yes, then you can see why I and others think your arguments against Skyy Moore sound a bit unsubstantiated.

No. Not really.

Calvin Austin would fail in a NUMBER of environments. He has a very limited lane for productivity. I simply thought he would be a very good option here as we have proven that we can utilize undersized WRs with high end skills.

In a vacuum I would still say he's a high-risk player. I honestly don't think anything you said there is remotely unfair. He's no slam dunk but man I wish we had his skill-set here.

And I've said the same thing about Moore - I think he'll produce here. Doesn't mean that scheme won't be a big part of it or that he's some exceptional value in the mid-2nd. Or that he's without the risk associated with small school players and guys who face poor competition. Or who weren't highly recruited coming out of high school.

It's all just a collection of data points.

[Bump]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Yeah, bringing up Gordon there was silly. Dude isn’t even a JAG anymore

his 0.2 catches per game will be hard for a rookie to compete with!

[kccrow]

Take a look at this list and tell me what you notice about it besides the fact that it's all the receivers to every break 10,000 yards in the NFL.

Jerry Rice - Mississippi Valley State
Larry Fitzgerald - Pittsburgh
Terrell Owens - Tennessee-Chattanooga
Randy Moss - Marshall
Isaac Bruce - Memphis
Tim Brown - Notre Dame
Steve Smith - Utah
Marvin Harrison - Syracuse
Reggie Wayne - Miami
Andre Johnson - Miami
James Lofton - Stanford
Cris Carter - Ohio State
Anquan Boldin - Florida State
Henry Ellard - Fresno State
Torry Holt - North Carolina State
Julio Jones - Alabama
Andre Reed - Kutztown
Steve Largent - Tulsa
Irving Fryar - Nebraska
Art Monk - Syracuse
Brandon Marshall - Central Florida
Antonio Brown - Central Michigan
Jimmy Smith - Jackson State
Charlie Joyner - Grambling
Hines Ward - Georgia
Derrick Mason - Michigan State
Michael Irvin - Miami
Don Maynard - Texas-El Paso
Calvin Johnson - Georgia Tech
Muhsin Muhammad - Michigan State
Rod Smith - Missouri Southern State
Keenan McCardell - Nevada-Las Vegas
DeSean Jackson - California
Chad Johnson - Oregon State
Joey Galloway - Ohio State
Roddy White - Alabama-Birmingham
Gary Clark - James Madison
Stanley Morgan - Tennessee
DeAndre Hopkins - Clemson
Keyshawn Johnson - Southern California
Harold Jackson - Jackson State
Santana Moss - Miami
A.J. Green - Georgia
Lance Alworth - Arkansas
Andre Rison - Michigan State
Donald Driver - Alcorn State

Spoiler!

If you answered 18/46 (39%) came from schools outside the Power 5, you'd be correct. School size simply isn't a great indicator of success.

[kevrunner]

Even the Chiefs weren’t so in love with him or they wouldn’t have risked trading down from the 50th pick to the 54th. The Chiefs probably had two or three WRs that they were satisfied with and just picked who fell to them after they traded down, it just so happened to be Moore. If they were head over heals in love with Moore, no way would they risk losing him.

[Skyy God]

Originally Posted by kevrunner

Even the Chiefs weren’t so in love with him or they wouldn’t have risked trading down from the 50th pick to the 54th. The Chiefs probably had two or three WRs that they were satisfied with and just picked who fell to them after they traded down, it just so happened to be Moore. If they were head over heals in love with Moore, no way would they risk losing him.

Sure.

Or maybe they didn’t like Pickens and Pierce and felt confident Moore would be there at 54.

Who the **** knows.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by kevrunner

Even the Chiefs weren’t so in love with him or they wouldn’t have risked trading down from the 50th pick to the 54th. The Chiefs probably had two or three WRs that they were satisfied with and just picked who fell to them after they traded down, it just so happened to be Moore. If they were head over heals in love with Moore, no way would they risk losing him.

This is most likely, AND I think it is also likely that they felt that the other teams looking WR at that point were probably going to go for the measurables guys.

I think they probably liked Moore based on FIT and felt Pickens and Pierce would be the choice for the others based on size.