Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by eDave

What kind of adjustments are you guys contemplating depending on who wins the election?

What will you do if Trump wins?

What will you do if Hillary wins?

(please don't turn this into a DC thing)

On a side note, interest rates have to go up too. Not in Oct. during an election, but definitely by EOY.

Everybody keeps saying that about the interest rates but I don't see it.

It's a popular position that interest rates HAVE to go up. What boggles my mind is interest rates really fell at 9/11. Which was 15 ****ing years ago. They didn't achieve their epic low for a few years but they've been almost nothin for 15 years.

There isn't inflation. I fail to believe that there will be material changes in the interest rates. I'm probably wrong, but I don't see any reason for them to take off that hasn't existed in the last 15 years.

[eDave]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Everybody keeps saying that but I don't see it.

It's a popular position that interest rates HAVE to go up. What boggles my mind is interest rates really fell at 9/11. Which was 15 ****ing years ago. They didn't achieve their epic low for a few years but they've been almost nothin for 15 years.

There isn't inflation. I fail to believe that there will be material changes in the interest rates. I'm probably wrong, but I don't see any reason for them to take off that hasn't existed in the last 15 years.

The committed to two adjustments per year. One so far this year and the case to increase in Oct was gaining traction after last meeting.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by eDave

The committed to two adjustments per year. One so far this year and the case to increase in Oct was gaining traction after last meeting.

They won't follow through.

They don't want to be the goat if (really, when) the stock market takes a dive after the election.

[eDave]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

They won't follow through.

They don't want to be the goat if (really, when) the stock market takes a dive after the election.

Historically (1900 - 2008), the market has gone up 15% when the incumbent party wins. -4.5% if the incumbent party loses. Overall average is up 7.5 regardless after an election.

Democrat President/Republican Congress has meant an over 21% increase.

[Discuss Thrower]

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/...rantee-of.html

[lewdog]

Don't change your investments based on who wins. It's largely uncorrelated when calculated for a president's full term. Political parties don't really effect the market. We've had great and bad times with both parties at the helm.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Don't change your investments based on who wins. It's largely uncorrelated when calculated for a president's full term. Political parties don't really effect the market. We've had great and bad times with both parties at the helm.

No, but I feel confident that a Trump election would make volatility spike and stay spiked for a while.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

No, but I feel confident that a Trump election would make volatility spike and stay spiked for a while.

Fine with me. Are you retiring soon?

I'd like a stock sale. But I think volatility will be high regardless of who wins this election given both candidates.

[ChiliConCarnage]

non shocker? rates didn't move.

[scho63]

I think the market is way overdue for a correction and these lower than low rates are like a loaded spring.

[lewdog]

The paperwork for a simple mortgage refinance has been insane. Should be closing fairly soon though. The loan company waived our appraisal, as they determined we already have enough equity in the house to refinance without someone having to look at the property and determine it's value. So that's a bonus.

[scho63]

Originally Posted by lewdog

The paperwork for a simple mortgage refinance has been insane. Should be closing fairly soon though. The loan company waived our appraisal, as they determined we already have enough equity in the house to refinance without someone having to look at the property and determine it's value. So that's a bonus.

What was the factor behind the refinance if you don't mind me asking?

Rates have been so low for so long not sure how you reduce payments anymore or were you looking to take out equity to do something else with the money?

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by scho63

What was the factor behind the refinance if you don't mind me asking?

Rates have been so low for so long not sure how you reduce payments anymore or were you looking to take out equity to do something else with the money?

When we bought the house 3 years ago, we only got approved for a 4.625% rate, I think because of my wife's lowish credit score of 720. I also didn't do any shopping around, so that probably didn't help. I checked into refinancing last month with rates being at record lows and they ran a credit report and with our credit now, 790 and 805, they said they could knock a full 1% off our interest rate. We plan to stay in this house long term, so it's just a play to pay less interest over the life of the loan. Our mortgage payment is very comfortable for us, so we will continue paying what we pay now, maybe even a little more, to pay off the house sooner and with the refinance, save on interest over the life of the loan.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by scho63

What was the factor behind the refinance if you don't mind me asking?

Rates have been so low for so long not sure how you reduce payments anymore or were you looking to take out equity to do something else with the money?

When I did mine a few years ago I picked up a shorter term and was able to reduce the rate significantly enough.

[Demonpenz]

I have two new books. How to Crush it...and Built to Last.