Report: Justin Jefferson Potentially on the Trade Block

[SHOWTIME]

������������: There is "steam" that the #Vikings could make WR Justin Jefferson available via trade, per @Charley_Walters pic.twitter.com/r8aLroBG2e

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) February 25, 2024

[Balto]

Originally Posted by kcgreene

I'd have to wonder what the price difference would be between trading for Jefferson and trading up to 1.04 with the Cardinals. If it's comparable or slightly more, I think personally I'd rather trade for Marvin Harrison Jr. at 1.04 (assuming he doesn't go in the first 3 picks). Cheaper contract and all. I get that Jefferson is the sure thing and no college player is ever a 'sure thing', but MHJr is about as close to a sure thing as you can get IMO.

Not saying we'll do either because it seems entirely unrealistic, but just a thought...

How bout:

Cards get:
#32
2025 1st
Sneed

Chiefs get:
#4, Harrison jr.

[kcgreene]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

kccrow earlier in the thread put out some good reasoning why trading for Jefferson would be like moving up to 11 in the draft. Moving to 4 for Marvin Harrison Jr - especially with some of the high end talent/QBs that people might fall in love it in this draft - would be meaningfully more expensive.

But yes, I think if given the opportunity, every single person would rather have 5 cost-controlled years of MHJr over JJ.

Didn't see that earlier. My bad. Didn't mean to repeat earlier stuff.

I know if any of the Top 3 QBs fall, 1.04 climbs exponentially in value (just the nature of the positional value) but I don't think anyone realistically is trading up to 1.04 for Nix, McCarthy, etc. (But there is plenty of time for that to change).

This also begs the question on this draft being so heavy with top end WR talent, if that adversely effects Jefferson's value and if the Vikes accept that.

The one thing that I can think of in this thought experiment of trading for 1.04 (if you're the Chiefs) is that any trade will most likely have to involve 1.32 and a tagged Sneed (and a bit more, those Top 5 picks are expensive as hell). Anything past that is just simply unfeasible.

[kcgreene]

Originally Posted by Balto

How bout:

Cards get:
#32
2025 1st
Sneed

Chiefs get:
#4, Harrison jr.

That makes Sneed worth roughly Pick 38 on the Fitzgerald Chart (which I feel is best personally, it's updated every year based on trades.) I could see that, but I think it'd be in high enough demand we'd probably have to do a 3rd for 5th exchange or something like that too.

[tredadda]

Originally Posted by Balto

How bout:

Cards get:
#32
2025 1st
Sneed

Chiefs get:
#4, Harrison jr.

Cards won’t take that. In the Mahomes era KC has never drafted lower than #28 or #29. No reason to think that will change anytime soon. Those first rounders are essentially 2nd rounders.

[O.city]

None of the teams in the top of the draft want to trade for and pay Sneed. They will just draft the cheap high end talent.

If you're gonna trade him, it's gonna be at best for a pick from 20-31 if it's a 1.

[kcgreene]

Originally Posted by tredadda

Cards won’t take that. In the Mahomes era KC has never drafted lower than #28 or #29. No reason to think that will change anytime soon. Those first rounders are essentially 2nd rounders.

Thats a valid point that kind've gets lost in the vacuum of assigning values to picks.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

kccrow earlier in the thread put out some good reasoning why trading for Jefferson would be like moving up to 11 in the draft. Moving to 4 for Marvin Harrison Jr - especially with some of the high end talent/QBs that people might fall in love it in this draft - would be meaningfully more expensive.

But yes, I think if given the opportunity, every single person would rather have 5 cost-controlled years of MHJr over JJ.

Perhaps the better comparison - just for fun - would be to ask would you rather have Jefferson on his new deal for the next five years, or Rome Odunze or Brock Bowers?

If we're talking about draft capital equivalent to trading up to 11, that's the more apt comparison, I think.

For one of those guys to be there at 11, you'd need the following to happen in the top 10:

1) 4 QBs are drafted (Patriots take a QB, Giants get desperate and draft McCarthy)
2) 3 Ts go in the top 10
3) 3 of the premium receiving targets go in the top 10
If a corner or pass rusher slips into the top 10, you can subtract one of those positions.

I don't think either Odunze or Bowers is a "safe" enough prospect to make that deal happen. In that scenario, I guess I'd prefer the Jefferson trade price. Though, honestly, I'd prefer neither of these scenarios.

Again. It's not just about making KC as good as possible for 2024. It's about making it as good as possible while also mitigating risk that you short-circuit the team's contender status.

When Travis Kelce retires or slows down enough that he no longer commands #1 target attention, that MIGHT break things up.

If the Chiefs take a HUGE swing that sacrifices draft capital NOW and it fails, it will DEFINITELY break things up 2-3 years down the road. And potentially as soon as 2025 if that huge swing involves giving Jefferson a market-setting payday.

[kcgreene]

Originally Posted by tredadda

Cards won’t take that. In the Mahomes era KC has never drafted lower than #28 or #29. No reason to think that will change anytime soon. Those first rounders are essentially 2nd rounders.

The one thought I have on that is if the Cards wanted Sneed (we don't even know if they would) He's worth IMO a late 1st... so for them... it's the equivalent 3 late 1sts essentially, and probably a couple of later round exchanges or kicking in a 3rd and a 2025 4th or something.

Honestly, with how well Veach drafts, and how much talent I think will be around in the mid rounds at WR... Looking at the price tag of that trade... I'm good staying pat, but it is a fun thought!

[O.city]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Perhaps the better comparison - just for fun - would be to ask would you rather have Jefferson on his new deal for the next five years, or Rome Odunze or Brock Bowers?

If we're talking about draft capital equivalent to trading up to 11, that's the more apt comparison, I think.

For one of those guys to be there at 11, you'd need the following to happen in the top 10:

1) 4 QBs are drafted (Patriots take a QB, Giants get desperate and draft McCarthy)
2) 3 Ts go in the top 10
3) 3 of the premium receiving targets go in the top 10
If a corner or pass rusher slips into the top 10, you can subtract one of those positions.

I don't think either Odunze or Bowers is a "safe" enough prospect to make that deal happen. In that scenario, I guess I'd prefer the Jefferson trade price. Though, honestly, I'd prefer neither of these scenarios.

Again. It's not just about making KC as good as possible for 2024. It's about making it as good as possible while also mitigating risk that you short-circuit the team's contender status.

When Travis Kelce retires or slows down enough that he no longer commands #1 target attention, that MIGHT break things up.

If the Chiefs take a HUGE swing that sacrifices draft capital NOW and it fails, it will DEFINITELY break things up 2-3 years down the road. And potentially as soon as 2025 if that huge swing involves giving Jefferson a market-setting payday.

Devils advocate, but what's a "fail" in this scenario?

He gets hurt would be the only thing I could see.

[SHOWTIME]

Florio seems to think that if Jefferson is getting traded it's going to be this week...

[kcgreene]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

If the Chiefs take a HUGE swing that sacrifices draft capital NOW and it fails, it will DEFINITELY break things up 2-3 years down the road. And potentially as soon as 2025 if that huge swing involves giving Jefferson a market-setting payday.

I don't know if it DEFINITELY breaks things up, but I agree with the sentiment that it will make it a lot harder to maintain the level of excellence we've seen from Veach and Reid.

Just with the price of that jump, I genuinely think I'd trust Veach to wait an make his move into the mid 20s for the guy he wants. (Honestly, hoping that Veach trades up to the early 20s for Amarius Mims personally, but just my thought. I think there's a lot of good WR talent that should be available Day 2)

[kcgreene]

Originally Posted by SHOWTIME

Florio seems to think that if Jefferson is getting traded it's going to be this week...

CONFIRMED: Jefferson is going to get traded at any point other than this week.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by O.city

Devils advocate, but what's a "fail" in this scenario?

He gets hurt would be the only thing I could see.

With Jefferson? It's not just his health that you have to worry about.

It's the roster, which is thinner overall. It's being able to keep the roster balanced and without glaring holes.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

With Jefferson? It's not just his health that you have to worry about.

It's the roster, which is thinner overall. It's being able to keep the roster balanced and without glaring holes.

I think you're gonna have holes with or without him though.

Look at the weapons this year.

[Mecca]

The fact that Minnesota is not going to keep the best WR in the league that they drafted outside of the top 10...when they are losing Cousins contract is all I need to know about why they don't ever win anything.