Mock 9/29/19

[kccrow]

May as well throw one out there at the quarte mark of the season...

Mock offseason

Veach breaks out his wheelie-dealie panties...
Chiefs trade Sammy Watkins to the Arizona Cardinals for a 2020 3rd round selection (gain $14 m cap, $7 m dead money)
Chiefs franchise tag Chris Jones then trade him to the Miami Dolphins for a 2020 1st round selection (from Houston) and a 2021 2nd round selection.
Chiefs trade 2020 1st round selection and 2021 4th round selection to the Jacksonville Jaguars for CB Jalen Ramsey, then re-sign Ramsey fto a 5 year, $80 million deal.

Chiefs re-sign CB Bashaud Breeland to a 3 year $27 million deal
Chiefs re-sign LB Darron Lee to a 4 year $13 million deal
Chiefs re-sign DE Emmanuel Ogbah to a 3 year, $12 million deal
Chiefs execute ERFA rights on TE Deon Yelder, LG Andrew Wylie, RG Ryan hunter, TE David Wells, WR Marcus Kemp, WR Devon Grayson and RFA tender CB Keith Reaser
Chiefs exercise QB Patrick Mahomes 5th year option, then re-sign to a 4-year extension worth $152m with $67m guaranteed at signing.
Chiefs re-sign QB Matt Moore, S Jordan Lucas, WR De'Anthony Thomas to near minimum deals
Chiefs sign free agent DB Jimmy Ward (SF) to 1 year, $2 million deal

Chiefs cut S Daniel Sorensen, OL Cam Erving

Chiefs let walk QB Chad Henne, DT Xavier Williams, RG Jeff Allen, CB Morris Claiborne, LB Reggie Ragland, TE Blake Bell, WR De'Anthony Thomas, CB Kendall Fulller, WR Demarcus Robinson, RB LeSean McCoy

Estimated cap with rollover $43 million. Estimated deals before draft selections $37-39 million.

Draft

1. (f/MIA) DT Javon Kinlaw - South Carolina
Kinlaw brings a skill set not all that dissimilar to Chris Jones, with length and upfield burst.
2. (f/SF) CB AJ Green, Oklahoma State
CB Depth, good at coming downhill in the run game.
3. (f/ARZ) TE Brycen Hopkins - Purdue
Heir to Kelce and quality receiver
3. LB Paddy Fisher - Northwestern
Fisher is groomed to take over for Hitchens in 2021 when the Chiefs dump the mistake
4. OL Matt Peart, UConn
Slim quick lineman that can be built up, LG competition/Swing OT depth
5. RB Trey Ragas, UL-Lafayette
Bruiser with good balance and speed the way Veach likes em

QB: Mahomes, Moore
RB: Williams, Williams, Thompson, Ragas
FB: Lovett
WR: Hill, Hardman, Pringle, Thompson, Kemp, Thomas
TE: Kelce, Hopkins, Yelder
OL: Fisher, Schwartz, Wylie, Peart, Allegretti, Duvernay-Tardif, Hunter, Rankins, Reiter
DE: Clark, Okafor, Ogbah, Kpassagnon, Ward
DT: Kinlaw, Nnadi, Saunders, Speaks, Ivie
LB: Wilson, Lee, Hitchens, Fisher, Niemann, O'Daniel
CB: Ramsey, Breeland, Ward, Ward, Green, Fenton
S: Mathieu, Thornhill, Watts, Lucas
ST: Butker, Colquitt, Winchester

[Buehler445]

Wow. That's a lot of shit to wade through LOL.

I'm no Ramsey fan, but I don't really have a better solution.

I'd like the return for Jones to be better, but it may not be in the cards.

Thanks for putting this together. I normally don't know enough to comment, but always appreciate reading it.

[Direckshun]

KcCrow, what is your take on Nnadi? Should the Chiefs be in the market for two DTs, rather than just one, in your hypothetical post-Chris-Jones reality?

[Dante84]

So in this situation, we use the 5th year option on Mahomes and he doesn't hold out? He just plays on his rookie deal another year instead of negotiating a quarter of a billion dollar deal?

[bsp4444]

I think it’s time to move on from Colquitt. He hasn’t looked sharp and isn’t as necessary as in the past. Should be some good savings there.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

KcCrow, what is your take on Nnadi? Should the Chiefs be in the market for two DTs, rather than just one, in your hypothetical post-Chris-Jones reality?

I'm hoping bowling ball is a contributor next year from a technique perspective and that Nnadi grows this year. They may have to consider bringing in another vet like they did Williams, but it'll have to be low-cost.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by bsp4444

I think it’s time to move on from Colquitt. He hasn’t looked sharp and isn’t as necessary as in the past. Should be some good savings there.

Not especially a big-time move. Clear 1.3 but have 650k in dead money iirc. It'll cost 650k for a draft pick, so you're saving half a mil? I've been banging the cut Colquitt wagon for 5 years. At this point I could give a **** less what they decide to do with him because I think they are beyond the substantial savings they could have realized long ago.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Dante84

So in this situation, we use the 5th year option on Mahomes and he doesn't hold out? He just plays on his rookie deal another year instead of negotiating a quarter of a billion dollar deal?

Why would he have incentive to hold out? He's playing 2020 on his rookie deal one way or the other. All you're doing by exercising the option is guaranteeing he's yours for 2021 without expending a franchise tag. He'd be on the books for the average of the top-10 QBs in the NFL fully guaranteed the following and they can negotiate the long-term extension prior to that season. It would be beyond idiotic to extend him this offseason (no offense to you personally). There is literally no good reason from a team perspective to blow your cap apart for 2020 by extending him then when you have him under wraps anyhow.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Why would he have incentive to hold out? He's playing 2020 on his rookie deal one way or the other. All you're doing by exercising the option is guaranteeing he's yours for 2021 without expending a franchise tag. He'd be on the books for the average of the top-10 QBs in the NFL fully guaranteed the following and they can negotiate the long-term extension prior to that season. It would be beyond idiotic to extend him this offseason (no offense to you personally). There is literally no good reason from a team perspective to blow your cap apart for 2020 by extending him then when you have him under wraps anyhow.

He could get injured brutally in Week 1, 2020.

So, if that were to happen, would you rather be inked for like $150m guaranteed or would you rather be rolling the dice on a two-year-maybe rookie deal.

The Chiefs are paying him, kccrow, and they're paying him this Spring.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by kccrow

There is literally no good reason from a team perspective to blow your cap apart for 2020 by extending him then when you have him under wraps anyhow.

He has the potential to (a.) be the best quarterback we've ever seen, and (b.) win as many Super Bowls as his defenses let him.

You ink him the second the league allows you to ink him.

[kccrow]

The league doesn't have much of any precedent for doing this. Wentz I think? Even with Wentz, the Eagles exercised the option then hammered out an extension but I don't remember what year it was in and don't feel like looking but you may be onto something.

[kccrow]

Okay **** it I had to go look...

So here's what the Eagles did with Wentz... they immediately exercised Wentz's 5th year option at the start of his 4th league year (2019) which guaranteed his salary in 2020. They then signed him to a 4-year extension which is exercised in years 2021-2024 but allowed them to spread out his bonus money over years 2019-2023. They also made use of an option bonus that activates in 2020 to keep money off 2019 and is also spread over 5 cap years in 2020-2024 as would be a signing bonus.

This is likely the exact route the Chiefs would have to go. Smaller signing bonus when they extend him after exercising his 5th-year option, then trigger an option bonus the following season.

[Hoover]

Screw Matt Moore - I think its time to go with the young cheap back up QB. I feel there same about Long Snapper, and Punter.

[kccrow]

My take on the potential Mahomes re-signing at this point (attached). I tried to go approximately 10% of Goff but mixed the solution a bit between Goff's structure and Wentz's structure. The end result is going to be largely the same regardless of where you stick money, but spreading for the cap and also the way you want to guarantee money changes how the contract is written. Right now guarantees are salary and roster bonuses (at triggers). The prorated bonuses are guaranteed at signing (like Wentz). By the way, this contract does eclipse the Rogers extension a bit.

Edit (Description): Essentially the deal is a 4-year extension with $152,854,095 of new money (He'd have a cost of $5,226,443 in 2019 and an expected 5th-year option of $24,276,000). It includes $67,335,000 guaranteed at signing, $27,500,000 as a signing bonus and guaranteed roster bonuses and salaries in 2020 and 2021. There is a $33,000,000 option bonus that triggers at the start of the 2020 league year. If that option is declined it becomes a fully guaranteed salary for 2020, guaranteeing the option and making total guaranteed money $100,335,000.

[kccrow]

I really like Evan Weaver out of Cal too as a LB prospect. Haven't watched him this year yet on the inside but he's just a player. Anyone have thoughts on him?