*** Official 2018 Royals Offseason Repository ***

[duncan_idaho]

It's the end of the world as we know it... and we feel... fine?

2018 is a season of transition for the Royals, or at least it is at this point. Dayton Moore is back. Will he swing full into THE PROCESS 2.0? Or will he try to load up again and make some reload magic happen?

Pending Free Agents:
1B | Eric Hosmer | San Diego Padres, 8 years, $144 million ($5 million signing bonus; $20 million/year in Yrs 1-5; $13 million/year in Yrs 6-8 wth player opt out)

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Texas Rangers, 6, $118 million)

3B | Mike Moustaskas | Kansas City Royas, 1, $6.5 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Los Angeles Angels, 5, $98 million)

CF | Lorenzo Cain | Milwaukee Brewers, 5 years, $80 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: San Francisco Giants, 4, $68 million)

RP | Mike Minor | Texas Rangers, 3, $28 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Los Angeles Angels, 3, $35 million+ $12 million team option

SP | Jason Vargas | New York Mets, 2, $16 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Baltimore Orioles, 2, $29 million)

SS | Alcides Escobar | Kansas City Royals, 1, $2.5 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: San Diego Padres, 1, $6.5 million)

2018 MLB Draft Picks
#18
#33 - Compensation (Eric Hosmer)
#34 - Compensation (Lorenzo Cain)
#40 (Competitive Balance Round A)

Comp picks explanation:

Spoiler!

In case I, picks would be #32, 33, and 34, if Alex Cobb of Rays signs for $50 million guaranteed.

Kansas City will likely have 5 of the top 40-45 picks in the draft, and the bonus pool money should rival that of the teams drafting 1-3 in the 2017 draft. This should give KC tremendous flexibility in acquiring talent that otherwise might slip or not be "signable."

2018 Draft Names to Watch

RHP Kumar Rocker, N Oconnee HS, Georgia.

Spoiler!

Possibly goes top 10 but is a big, physical SP with ace potential. Moore and co. will be all over him if he slips a bit and could offer top 10 money at No. 16

OF Jarred Kelenic, Waukasha West HS, WI

Spoiler!

Kelenic is the top prep bat, toolsy OF. Royals would be ecstatic to have shot at him.

1B Triston Casas, American Heritage HS (FL).

Spoiler!

Tremendous raw power, best in HS bats. Royals typically like HS arms or HS bats with "special" tools. He qualifies.

RHP Carter Stewart, Eau de Gallie HS (Ga).

Spoiler!

Another big, physical specimen with huge upside. More likely to be available mid-first than Rocker.

ANY Any, Any (Any). Any current top projected pick who slides for injury concerns. Includes current top prospect prospect SP Brady Singer, U of Florida.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Kietzman is a moron but may be a blind squirrel with a nut on that one.

So essentially he's Billay finding the wet spot after flouring one of the hogs he brings back from the P&L district?

[dallaschiefsfan]

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief

I'm not sure this has been posted in the thread yet, but Mellinger seems to have information that the Royals didn't actually offer that contract.

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt...192820204.html

Not surprised. But they've offered something, though maybe fewer years or fewer dollars. And it's apparently the best to pimp publicly (along with the Padres offer) to get other teams to jump in. That tells me the Royals are likely one of the better bidders, regardless whether it dead ends at their offer of not.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Hey Duncan dumbass Keitzman has an interesting theory that with about 5 weeks til guess head to Spring Training owners are colluding not to pay these guys alot that's why the market hasn't taken shape. Thoughts?

I don't think it's collusion as much as it is teams relying on cost-controlled youth more than ever.

Guys age now and that's a big factor. This isn't the late 90s/early 2000s when steroids were keeping guys productive in their mid-30s. Aging curves have returned to normal where your good but not great players are starting to decline by their 31/32 years. And when most of these FAs are looking for deals that take them into their 33-34 seasons, teams aren't excited to be paying $20+ million for the out years on those deals anymore.

Additional information and smarter front-offices is exposing these super-long deals as really bad gambles.

It's not collusion when owners decide that they're done getting burned by stupid contracts. It's a simple market correction.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I don't think it's collusion as much as it is teams relying on cost-controlled youth more than ever.

Guys age now and that's a big factor. This isn't the late 90s/early 2000s when steroids were keeping guys productive in their mid-30s. Aging curves have returned to normal where your good but not great players are starting to decline by their 31/32 years. And when most of these FAs are looking for deals that take them into their 33-34 seasons, teams aren't excited to be paying $20+ million for the out years on those deals anymore.

Additional information and smarter front-offices is exposing these super-long deals as really bad gambles.

It's not collusion when owners decide that they're done getting burned by stupid contracts. It's a simple market correction.

Yup. I doubt we will ever see anything close to an Angels and Pujols contract ever again.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Yup. I doubt we will ever see anything close to an Angels and Pujols contract ever again.

Sure we will. Another owner will make a 'business decision' for genuine HOF caliber player exiting his prime with the (possibly correct) belief that he'll pay for himself via merchandise and general fan enthusiasm for a year or two.

If you can get close to your value for 1/2 that contract, the ancillary benefits will forward pay the back years. The player won't have to play to the level of his contract for the entire deal at that point.

But Hosmer and Moustakas aren't those caliber of players. They aren't the HoF guys that people will buy tickets just to come out and see. They're guys that are going to have produce to their contract or the owner won't get the returns he needs.

Stanton will be an interesting test case if he opts out. His body and the violence in his swing suggest he won't age terribly well. If he opts out, he'll be entering his age 31 season on the first year of his deal. But if he opts out it will be because he performed the last 3 years and he'll be a big-time guy on the marquis. He'll sell tickets and one of those flashy owners will recognize that he may well pay for a 10 year deal if he just manages to hit HRs through 35 and then spend the last half chasing records.

There will still be bad contracts, but there will be fewer of them for baseball's upper-middle class, IMO.

[Sure-Oz]

According to Rosenthal the Brewers may be interested in Cain


Also

@jcrasnick: The #Rangers have ramped up their pursuit of free agent outfielder Lorenzo Cain, says a source.

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz

@jcrasnick: The #Rangers have ramped up their pursuit of free agent outfielder Lorenzo Cain, says a source.

Most logical spot for Cain. That's been my prediction for him. His wife is from Oklahoma City and they live there.

[duncan_idaho]

Lorenzo Cain to the Rangers would make it easy to root for him, and I think he'd do well offensively there.


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[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Lorenzo Cain to the Rangers would make it easy to root for him, and I think he'd do well offensively there.


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Deep down, I'm still hopeful he goes to an NL team so he could take a well deserved Gold Glove before his career is said and done.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I don't think it's collusion as much as it is teams relying on cost-controlled youth more than ever.

Guys age now and that's a big factor. This isn't the late 90s/early 2000s when steroids were keeping guys productive in their mid-30s. Aging curves have returned to normal where your good but not great players are starting to decline by their 31/32 years. And when most of these FAs are looking for deals that take them into their 33-34 seasons, teams aren't excited to be paying $20+ million for the out years on those deals anymore.

Additional information and smarter front-offices is exposing these super-long deals as really bad gambles.

It's not collusion when owners decide that they're done getting burned by stupid contracts. It's a simple market correction.

You make a good case and with all that said 7/147 for a guy we all agree in 3 years is going to decline. Oh boy.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Lorenzo Cain to the Rangers would make it easy to root for him, and I think he'd do well offensively there.


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Imma be real with you; I just want the pick.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

You make a good case and with all that said 7/147 for a guy we all agree in 3 years is going to decline. Oh boy.

Hey, maybe we learned a lesson with Gordon. Then again, I'm not sure we HAD to make that mistake to already understand the lesson in the first place.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Hey, maybe we learned a lesson with Gordon. Then again, I'm not sure we HAD to make that mistake to already understand the lesson in the first place.

I think it's more for the average fan than anything.

Think with your head, not your heart.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

You make a good case and with all that said 7/147 for a guy we all agree in 3 years is going to decline. Oh boy.

Regarding Hosmer's decline, I'm less concerned about his decline as I am the possibility that he's just not that good. I still can't figure out if he's likely to be a 3 WAR player going forward or just a tick above replacement.

Guys with loud mechanics that blast a lot of balls into the dirt sure make me nervous.

Hosmer's probably not in a 'years' fight right now as much as he is in an AAV battle. A 7 year deal takes him through age 34 and that's where the real steep plummet comes according to most aging curves. So if you can get a guy through 34, you recognize that he's not going to be as good at 31-34, but he won't be a shell of himself either. At least not in all probability. But the chances go up significantly that at 34-35, you're getting a guy that may not even be MLB caliber anymore. The wall comes that quickly for the good but not great players.

Teams may be dickering over a year here or there but it's just because they don't want to pay as much in AAV for him. I don't think anyone's convinced that he's anything more than a nice player and Boras is wanting superstar money. I think teams would gladly give him 7/$125 because they think his true worth is in that general $18 million range. But they aren't excited to be giving him $21 million knowing that he just may not be that kind of ballplayer now, let alone 4-5 years from now.

[Sure-Oz]

6m ago

@rustindodd: The Royals are close on a deal that will send reliever Scott Alexander to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Still waiting on what's coming back to KC.

@McCulloughTimes: Sources: The Dodgers are close to finalizing a three-team trade that would bring LHP Scott Alexander to LA, send RHP Trevor Oaks to KC and send LHP Luis Avilan to White Sox.