Which QB is better: Dak Prescott or Lamar Jackson?

[Deberg_1990]

Was just talking about this with coworkers.

Most agreed Dak overall was better. Both will be looking to get paid soon.

Who’s the better QB?

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

EVERYTHING went right for them last year. Lamar was super efficient. The defense was near perfect. They had virtually zero injuries.

The stars pretty much aligned for them. That's not happening again.

They're pretty much like the 2016 Raiders and the 2018 Chargers.

Everything went right for them, including eeking out wins by extremely small margins but both of those teams fell back to earth the following season.

This Steelers team is real and IMO, are the only team standing in the way of the Chiefs going to consecutive Super Bowls. The Ravens play them twice still this year along with Dallas, New England, Tennessee and Indy, who has a defense that may give Jackson a ton of problems.

Something unprecedented will need to occur for the Ravens to win 14 games this season, which is why I think it's likely their win total won't exceed 11, IMO and may fall down to 9.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

They're pretty much like the 2016 Raiders and the 2018 Chargers.

Everything went right for them, including eeking out wins by extremely small margins but both of those teams fell back to earth the following season.

This Steelers team is real and IMO, are the only team standing in the way of the Chiefs going to consecutive Super Bowls. The Ravens play them twice still this year along with Dallas, New England, Tennessee and Indy, who has a defense that may give Jackson a ton of problems.

Something unprecedented will need to occur for the Ravens to win 14 games this season, which is why I think it's likely their win total won't exceed 11, IMO and may fall down to 9.

I'm sticking with 11-5.

But I looked it up. There's so much luck that goes into winning that many games. Teams that have gone 14-2 or better in a season average just 10 wins the next. There's a reason for that.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by OKchiefs

I'm of the opinion that we are seeing Lamar come back to Earth somewhat. He was never going to have nearly as efficient of a season as he did last year. Pittsburgh isn't the pushover they were a year ago and I see them putting up a dogfight against Baltimore. They also have other games that are in no way gimmes like Indianapolis, New England, Tennessee, and Dallas. That's 6 remaining games against teams that are completely capable of taking down Baltimore. They'll still probably win 12 games or so, but I wouldn't expect them to run away with the division again. Pittsburgh will put up a good fight. Lamar also isn't going to come close to approaching his MVP season numbers.

Cleveland could also jump up and bite them in the butt. They did it last year. Ravens beat them down a few weeks ago, but it was Week 1 with no preseason in the age of social distancing with a brand new coaching staff in Cleveland. And it was on the road as well. They were at a pretty big disadvantage in that game due to multiple reasons, but especially COVID.

Cleveland has the talent on paper to put up a strong fight against the Ravens. They'll be a much better team later in the season as the players get more game reps in the new coach's system.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by staylor26

But but but TD’s!!!!

Blake Bortles threw 30+ TD’s in a season before...

Did Bortles also run for over 1200 yds and have 7 rushing TDs in a season? You can't compare Lamar to other QBs based purely on passing because of the dual threat he is.

He's a good QB. I don't think he is as great as many make him out to be but he certainly isn't as bad as many on here are making him out to be either. He won the MVP award and got voted #1 player last year for a reason

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The Steelers could beat 'em twice.

Powerful passing game, really good pass rush and a stout interior line (even if it is a stupid 3-4).

And nobody is immune from the 'stupid loss' game. The Ravens lost to Cleveland last year.

The Colts have an incredibly smart, well coached defense that could give them trouble, especially if Buckner and Houston are healthy. The Titans fisted 'em in the playoffs and BB always seems to come up with something for big games.

I think they have 3 more losses on their schedule and could easily settle in at 12-4 or even 11-5. With the tiebreaker in hand, the Chiefs really are in the driver's seat here.

They have a 5 game stretch from the end of October (Pitt, Indy, NE, TN, Pitt) that could easily see them losing 3 of those games. And we've NEVER seen leadership chops from Lamar - he's always been able to lead from in front. If they lose 2 of the first 3, it's not impossible to see them drop 4 of 5 in there.

The 3 games before it and 5 games after it are cake, but again - everyone drops a dumb one.

Yep, the Steelers could do it. They do have the pass rushers and a pretty good secondary.

If there's a question with the Steelers it's gotta be Big Ben. Is his elbow really 100% or not? Because they're going to have to put up 26+ points, probably.

Indy is a maybe. Mostly because we know Rivers and what does Rivers do when he get flustered? Throw picks, and the Ravens CBs are ball-hawks.

NE is another maybe. Problem for them, as I see it, is do they have the horses? I don't think they do, but you're right, Bill is the best at hiding his defense's weaknesses and making QBs see ghosts. But Bill is going to have to stop the Ravens run game, which is where I think he just doesn't have the players to do that. Plus, BAL beat NE last season when they actually had all their starting defensive players, and Tom Brady. Not sure how a lesser version of NE's defense plays well enough to stop BAL.

And I'm just going with my gut on this one, but I don't think BAL is going to let TEN beat them again. That's a game they definitely have circled, and they're going to want to show the world that TEN's victory last year was a fluke.

But yeah, BAL could drop 3 or 4 more. However, their record against the rest of the league is like 21-1? They aren't scared of anyone, except the Chiefs.

[Mahomes_Is_God]

The Steelers haven't played any good teams yet. All three of their opponents combined have a total of 0 wins.

I'd pump the breaks on them a bit.

[keg in kc]

I don't think either has shown anything close to the (football) intelligence to really excel as a quarterback. Although if forced, I'd probably take Dak. He's less athlete, more passer. Whereas Lamar, with a few pounds on his frame, might be the best runningback in the NFL, but him throwing the ball is a nightmare, and I don't mean for the defense. I expected him to progress as a passer well before now, but he just hasn't.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Did Bortles also run for over 1200 yds and have 7 rushing TDs in a season? You can't compare Lamar to other QBs based purely on passing because of the dual threat he is.

He's a good QB. I don't think he is as great as many make him out to be but he certainly isn't as bad as many on here are making him out to be. He won the MVP award and got voted #1 player last year for a reason

We all know what that reason is. The same reason you keep defending him so much.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by Mahomes_Is_God

The Steelers haven't played any good teams yet. All three of their opponents combine for a total of 0 wins.

I'd pump the breaks on them a bit.

Sure, but their defense is legit, and they’re obviously better with Big Ben. We already know this regardless.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Sure, but their defense is legit, and they’re obviously better with Big Ben. We already know this regardless.

Exactly.

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I'm sticking with 11-5.

But I looked it up. There's so much luck that goes into winning that many games. Teams that have gone 14-2 or better in a season average just 10 wins the next. There's a reason for that.

Their schedule is so incredibly easy from this point forward. I have a hard time seeing them only winning 10 or 11. Two games against Pittsburgh and one against New England, that's pretty much the only challenges they have left, and I doubt they lose all 3. I think they'll see the Titans as a revenge game, and the Cowboys can't stop anybody. I have a hard time seeing them lose to the Colts or the Eagles, either, and they're just not losing to Washington or the Bengals or the Browns or the Jaguars or the Giants.

[Sassy Squatch]

Nah, it's fair to pump the brakes on them a bit as a true Super Bowl contender, even though they'll almost definitely be in the playoffs. The fact Denver managed to play them close gives me serious pause. Too damn bad the Titans game was postponed.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Did Bortles also run for over 1200 yds and have 7 rushing TDs in a season? You can't compare Lamar to other QBs based purely on passing because of the dual threat he is.

He's a good QB. I don't think he is as great as many make him out to be but he certainly isn't as bad as many on here are making him out to be. He won the MVP award and got voted #1 player last year for a reason

The point is that citing TDs thrown doesn't accomplish anything.

To date there's been no evidence that red zone performance is a repeatable skill. When it's been analyzed over any meaningful sample size, it typically just dillutes into a sample size error.

40% of Lamar Jackson's red zone attempts last season were thrown for TDs. That's IMPOSSIBLY high. That's like those guys that come up in September in baseball and hit 30% of their fly-balls for homers. Those guys invariably regress the following season to a typical 17% sort of figure.

League-wide, 23% of the red zone passes thrown were for touchdowns. Go ahead and give Jackson 25% as a normalized figure after accounting for regression and you're looking at 15 red zone TDs instead of 24.

So a 'realistic' projection of TD passes for Jackson, even in a year like he had last year, is more along the lines of 26-27 touchdowns. Still a fine year, but to cite the TD passes he threw is to give him credit for a 'skill' that simply doesn't exist. Perhaps not surprisingly, Jackson's TD/Pass rate in the red zone OUTSIDE of 2019? Exactly 25%.

Don't cite that stat - it doesn't mean anything. There's no year over year predictive value to red zone TD stats. Even quarterbacks w/ great red zone tools (Mahomes, for instance) show MASSIVE variance in year to year TD numbers inside the 20. Mahomes threw a mere 11 in 56 red zone attempts last season (19%) after throwing 35 in 96 attempts the season prior (36%).

They wash out as static over any meaningful sample size.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

I think they'll see the Titans as a revenge game, and the Cowboys can't stop anybody. .

The Cowboys can't stop anyone but they can score 40 points a game without blinking. If they grab an early lead, it's over for Baltimore.

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

The Cowboys can't stop anyone but they can score 40 points a game without blinking. If they grab an early lead, it's over for Baltimore.

Yeah, I just don't think they can do that to that defense. At least not the way we did. And the Cowboys definitely can't hold the Ravens offense to 13 points.