Chiefs Over/Under 9 Wins

frozenchief · 08-24-2017, 04:06 PM

Football Outsiders goes through the whole AFC West discussing whether they will exceed their projected Vegas lines for wins. FO is one of the more intelligent websites, using real data and not just gut instinct. Their take on KC is cautiously optimistic:

Bryan: Forget the win total; what's the over/under for when Patrick Mahomes replaces Alex Smith? It's an odd situation, where a playoff team with a perfectly cromulent starting quarterback goes out and uses a first-round pick to draft his successor rather than bolster something else for a playoff run.

Andrew: Surely they don't intend to actually replace Smith with Mahomes during the season? That's no way to get your team to a Super Bowl!

Bryan: Jay Cutler replaced Jake Plummer in 2006, which turned out to also not be a way to get your team to a Super Bowl. You're probably right that the Chiefs won't make a move unless something falls apart this season, but that's a big old ticking clock in the ear of Smith.

Andrew: The Plummer-Cutler thing really irritated me at the time (and not just me), so you just made me glad we're done writing about Denver. It's definitely ominous for Smith's future to have Mahomes not only there but apparently playing very exciting football during the preseason. The Chiefs were one of my favorite teams to watch last year, with quarterback the one damp spot on an otherwise fiery outfit.

Bryan: Yeah, so far, Mahomes doesn't appear to be the next Jim Druckenmiller or Todd Marinovich, which is good for Chiefs fans and bad for Alex. This would be the second time he has lost his job to a hot up-and-coming young draft pick, too. I've got a soft spot for the guy after watching him struggle for so long on some truly terrible 49ers teams. I remember the 49ers faithful chanting that they wanted David Carr -- David Carr!! -- to enter the game to improve the level of quarterback play. No one appreciates the subtle and dangerous art of the check down!

Andrew: To be fair to Smith, he has been exactly what he was signed to be for the Chiefs: a safe quarterback who can help his head coach stabilize the franchise, keep things around him on schedule, help the younger players develop, then hand over to his successor when he becomes the guy who's holding the offense back. Everything I wrote about Chase Daniel's play in FOA 2017 (still available!) applies to Smith, except Smith is a better version of that hyper-conservative, functional passer.

Bryan: And, of course, the best way to help your conservative, functional passer succeed for your team with Super Bowl aspirations is to cut his top receiver in the middle of the offseason for no adequately explained reason. So long, Jeremy Maclin!

Andrew: Hello Travis Kelce, who was the main beneficiary during Maclin's absence last season. Kelce, those running backs, and Tyreek Hill give a lot of quality, versatility, and unpredictability around Smith, but at some point he will probably need to pass to an actual wide receiver. Right now, that guy is Chris Conley. Or Albert Wilson. Or ... wait, that's it? They could hold their wide receiver meetings in a cupboard.

Bryan: I will say this, though: for as poor as their offense looks on paper, they haven't looked bad in preseason. Yes, it's just preseason, and there are not enough grains of salt in the world to take that with, but it looks … competent!

Andrew: I found the Chiefs great fun to watch last year. As long as you can forget that Tyreek Hill the football jersey is Tyreek Hill the person, he's electrifying. Kelce is one of the best receiving tight ends in the game, and one of the few tight ends who can line up in any position, run any route, and even take a wide receiver screen 80 yards for a touchdown. Andy Reid does a lot with formations and packages to confound a defense, which often results in beautiful mismatches like Albert Wilson against Telvin Smith in deep centerfield coverage. Their running game is likewise one of the most creative in the league, and they are one of the few teams with a legitimately decent offensive line.

Bryan: Their defense, similarly, is fun to watch, if lacking the oomph or long-term success of Denver. Eric Berry is an amazing player to watch, and grouped with Marcus Peters and Ron Parker, you have a very, very good secondary. There's no more Dontari Poe -- a victim of their tight salary cap situation -- but you have very useful players like Ramik Wilson and Chris Jones to shore up the middle. Oh, and then Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, which are great assets to have in a division with at least two below-average offensive lines. I mean, there's nothing there that matches up with the best in the league at any one position, but it's a group without weaknesses.
I do have a limb I want to go out on here. With an adequate, if not amazing offense, and a solid, if not spectacular, defense, we could see NFL history made. The record for field goals in a season is 44, set by the 2011 San Francisco 49ers. And you know who their quarterback was, right?

Andrew: Alex Smith, the last time he had a highly-drafted rookie quarterback on the bench behind him.

Bryan: So yeah. I'm picking the Chiefs to go 9-7 and win the division -- a tough division, but fair. Now, what's their over/under again … ah hell, another round number. So, I have to decide if this is more likely a 10-6 team or an 8-8 team. That's a huge gap! Down with integer lines! I know they went 12-4 last season, but they didn't have to play the NFC East. I'm going to say the odds that they sputter due to a lack of receiving weapons are greater than the odds that they repeat double-digit wins, so I'm taking the under. Nasty line, this one.

Andrew: This line screams "push" like an over-caffeinated midwife, but I'm taking the over. This is the most balanced team in the division, and good enough to take wins away from all of the other good teams around them. I think they're the best of the West, in the AFC at least.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/scr...est-overunders

TLO · 08-24-2017, 04:19 PM

Over / thread

**DaneMcCloud** · 08-24-2017, 04:37 PM

Dontari Poe was not a "Cap Victim".

His play slipped from 2014 and he wasn't worth $8 million per.

Sandy Vagina · 08-24-2017, 04:43 PM

Was overall a fun exchange to read.

I'm going with 10 wins for KC for the division.. with Oakland just trailing at 9 wins.

**notorious** · 08-24-2017, 04:44 PM

Yes.

Enjoy your 200+ thread.

**Buehler445** · 08-24-2017, 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Dontari Poe was not a "Cap Victim".

His play slipped from 2014 and he wasn't worth $8 million per.

Yep. He was fun to watch. But he got run down.

**notorious** · 08-24-2017, 04:50 PM

It's nice to know that whenever someone leaves, the Chiefs are as good, if not better than before.

**Ming the Merciless** · 08-24-2017, 05:33 PM

i think 9 is a good spot for the o/u

wouldnt take either

**DaneMcCloud** · 08-24-2017, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notorious

It's nice to know that whenever someone leaves, the Chiefs are as good, if not better than before.

The Chiefs chose not to re-sign Poe because he was clearly on the decline.

Bennie Logan is an upgrade.

**DaneMcCloud** · 08-24-2017, 05:59 PM

This team wins 11 without blinking.

12 to 14 if everything falls into place (healthy stars, Smith plays like 2015, Hunt & Ware live up to expectations, Hill continues to ascend, etc.).

Direckshun · 08-24-2017, 05:59 PM

I think they can be another 12-4 team if they can stay healthy.

**notorious** · 08-24-2017, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

The Chiefs chose not to re-sign Poe because he was clearly on the decline.

Bennie Logan is an upgrade.

I worded my post poorly.

I agree.

Hammock Parties · 08-24-2017, 06:00 PM

14 wins

The team didn't get demonstrably better and has a harder schedule. I'd be shocked if they won 11.

9 or 10 seems most likely.

Hammock Parties · 08-24-2017, 06:02 PM

14-2 teams are ****ing badass. They don't have a lot of holes.

The Chiefs? Not good at throwing, running game and run defense are mediocre, pass rush is ???

That's not a 14-2 team.

I maintain that last year's team was a mediocre squad elevated by the sudden, completely unexpected explosion of Tyreek Hill.

Without that X-factor (teams will be prepared for him this year) they go back to being mediocre this year.

**DaneMcCloud** · 08-24-2017, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

14 wins

The team didn't get demonstrably better and has a harder schedule. I'd be shocked if they won 11.

9 or 10 seems most likely.

They easily could have won 14 last year with just a tad more offense.

But of course you don't think they're a good team, because Claynus.

Also, Kareem Hunt with less than 200 yards...

08-24-2017, 04:06 PM
frozenchief Cynical Misanthrope Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Alaska Casino cash: $1451379	Over/Under 9 Wins Football Outsiders goes through the whole AFC West discussing whether they will exceed their projected Vegas lines for wins. FO is one of the more intelligent websites, using real data and not just gut instinct. Their take on KC is cautiously optimistic: Bryan: Forget the win total; what's the over/under for when Patrick Mahomes replaces Alex Smith? It's an odd situation, where a playoff team with a perfectly cromulent starting quarterback goes out and uses a first-round pick to draft his successor rather than bolster something else for a playoff run. Andrew: Surely they don't intend to actually replace Smith with Mahomes during the season? That's no way to get your team to a Super Bowl! Bryan: Jay Cutler replaced Jake Plummer in 2006, which turned out to also not be a way to get your team to a Super Bowl. You're probably right that the Chiefs won't make a move unless something falls apart this season, but that's a big old ticking clock in the ear of Smith. Andrew: The Plummer-Cutler thing really irritated me at the time (and not just me), so you just made me glad we're done writing about Denver. It's definitely ominous for Smith's future to have Mahomes not only there but apparently playing very exciting football during the preseason. The Chiefs were one of my favorite teams to watch last year, with quarterback the one damp spot on an otherwise fiery outfit. Bryan: Yeah, so far, Mahomes doesn't appear to be the next Jim Druckenmiller or Todd Marinovich, which is good for Chiefs fans and bad for Alex. This would be the second time he has lost his job to a hot up-and-coming young draft pick, too. I've got a soft spot for the guy after watching him struggle for so long on some truly terrible 49ers teams. I remember the 49ers faithful chanting that they wanted David Carr -- David Carr!! -- to enter the game to improve the level of quarterback play. No one appreciates the subtle and dangerous art of the check down! Andrew: To be fair to Smith, he has been exactly what he was signed to be for the Chiefs: a safe quarterback who can help his head coach stabilize the franchise, keep things around him on schedule, help the younger players develop, then hand over to his successor when he becomes the guy who's holding the offense back. Everything I wrote about Chase Daniel's play in FOA 2017 (still available!) applies to Smith, except Smith is a better version of that hyper-conservative, functional passer. Bryan: And, of course, the best way to help your conservative, functional passer succeed for your team with Super Bowl aspirations is to cut his top receiver in the middle of the offseason for no adequately explained reason. So long, Jeremy Maclin! Andrew: Hello Travis Kelce, who was the main beneficiary during Maclin's absence last season. Kelce, those running backs, and Tyreek Hill give a lot of quality, versatility, and unpredictability around Smith, but at some point he will probably need to pass to an actual wide receiver. Right now, that guy is Chris Conley. Or Albert Wilson. Or ... wait, that's it? They could hold their wide receiver meetings in a cupboard. Bryan: I will say this, though: for as poor as their offense looks on paper, they haven't looked bad in preseason. Yes, it's just preseason, and there are not enough grains of salt in the world to take that with, but it looks … competent! Andrew: I found the Chiefs great fun to watch last year. As long as you can forget that Tyreek Hill the football jersey is Tyreek Hill the person, he's electrifying. Kelce is one of the best receiving tight ends in the game, and one of the few tight ends who can line up in any position, run any route, and even take a wide receiver screen 80 yards for a touchdown. Andy Reid does a lot with formations and packages to confound a defense, which often results in beautiful mismatches like Albert Wilson against Telvin Smith in deep centerfield coverage. Their running game is likewise one of the most creative in the league, and they are one of the few teams with a legitimately decent offensive line. Bryan: Their defense, similarly, is fun to watch, if lacking the oomph or long-term success of Denver. Eric Berry is an amazing player to watch, and grouped with Marcus Peters and Ron Parker, you have a very, very good secondary. There's no more Dontari Poe -- a victim of their tight salary cap situation -- but you have very useful players like Ramik Wilson and Chris Jones to shore up the middle. Oh, and then Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, which are great assets to have in a division with at least two below-average offensive lines. I mean, there's nothing there that matches up with the best in the league at any one position, but it's a group without weaknesses. I do have a limb I want to go out on here. With an adequate, if not amazing offense, and a solid, if not spectacular, defense, we could see NFL history made. The record for field goals in a season is 44, set by the 2011 San Francisco 49ers. And you know who their quarterback was, right? Andrew: Alex Smith, the last time he had a highly-drafted rookie quarterback on the bench behind him. Bryan: So yeah. I'm picking the Chiefs to go 9-7 and win the division -- a tough division, but fair. Now, what's their over/under again … ah hell, another round number. So, I have to decide if this is more likely a 10-6 team or an 8-8 team. That's a huge gap! Down with integer lines! I know they went 12-4 last season, but they didn't have to play the NFC East. I'm going to say the odds that they sputter due to a lack of receiving weapons are greater than the odds that they repeat double-digit wins, so I'm taking the under. Nasty line, this one. Andrew: This line screams "push" like an over-caffeinated midwife, but I'm taking the over. This is the most balanced team in the division, and good enough to take wins away from all of the other good teams around them. I think they're the best of the West, in the AFC at least. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/scr...est-overunders
Posts: 3,921

08-24-2017, 04:19 PM	#2
TLO Life is changing.. Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: NW Missouri Casino cash: $1744900	Over / thread
Posts: 39,017

08-24-2017, 04:37 PM	#3
DaneMcCloud Supporter Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Hollywood, CA Casino cash: $10053648	Dontari Poe was not a "Cap Victim". His play slipped from 2014 and he wasn't worth $8 million per.
Posts: 88,960

08-24-2017, 04:44 PM	#5
notorious Supporter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Who knows? Casino cash: $2755884	Yes. Enjoy your 200+ thread.
Posts: 83,513

08-24-2017, 04:50 PM	#7
notorious Supporter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Who knows? Casino cash: $2755884	It's nice to know that whenever someone leaves, the Chiefs are as good, if not better than before.
Posts: 83,513

08-24-2017, 05:33 PM	#8
Ming the Merciless Emporer of Mongo Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Milky Way Casino cash: $2797556	i think 9 is a good spot for the o/u wouldnt take either __________________ ---- 2018 Adopt-A-Chief : Chris Conley 2017 Adopt-A-Chief : FRANK ZOMBO Click here-->*The Holy Chiefsplanet Lexicon **
Posts: 44,493

08-24-2017, 05:59 PM	#10
DaneMcCloud Supporter Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Hollywood, CA Casino cash: $10053648	This team wins 11 without blinking. 12 to 14 if everything falls into place (healthy stars, Smith plays like 2015, Hunt & Ware live up to expectations, Hill continues to ascend, etc.).
Posts: 88,960

08-24-2017, 05:59 PM	#11
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $4243447	I think they can be another 12-4 team if they can stay healthy.
Posts: 59,301

08-24-2017, 06:00 PM	#13
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $4540478	14 wins The team didn't get demonstrably better and has a harder schedule. I'd be shocked if they won 11. 9 or 10 seems most likely.
Posts: 278,409

08-24-2017, 06:02 PM	#14
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $4540478	14-2 teams are ****ing badass. They don't have a lot of holes. The Chiefs? Not good at throwing, running game and run defense are mediocre, pass rush is ??? That's not a 14-2 team. I maintain that last year's team was a mediocre squad elevated by the sudden, completely unexpected explosion of Tyreek Hill. Without that X-factor (teams will be prepared for him this year) they go back to being mediocre this year.
Posts: 278,409