Clemson's Trevor Lawrence is No. 1. BYU's Zach Wilson is No. 2.
Those were the consensus rankings within the league before the 2021 NFL Draft process kicked into high gear, and they haven't changed over the past six weeks or so, with the Jacksonville Jaguars still widely expected to select Lawrence with the top overall pick and the New York Jets likely to take Wilson second on April 29.
Should Ohio State's Justin Fields, Alabama's Mac Jones or North Dakota State's Trey Lance be the San Francisco 49ers' pick at No. 3? Is Stanford's Davis Mills, Texas A&M's Kellen Mond or Florida's Kyle Trask the best bet among prospects likely destined for Days 2 and 3? There are 32 draft boards, and you probably could find every possible permutation of rankings on one of them.
Here's the full breakdown of the 13 quarterbacks with the best chance to get drafted, based on conversations with NFL executives, scouts and coaches, all speaking on the condition of anonymity for competitive reasons and to provide a blunt assessment:
Rank
1
Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence
Clemson · Round 1
The favorite to be the No. 1 pick practically from the moment he took his first college snap, Lawrence checks all the boxes -- size (6-foot-5 5/8, 213 pounds), accuracy, athletic ability, production, toughness, intelligence, intangibles -- and accomplished practically everything that could've been asked of him over three seasons at Clemson. He threw for 10,098 yards and 90 touchdowns and ran for another 18 scores in 40 college games, posted a 34-2 record as a starter and led the Tigers to a national championship as a true freshman, plus a title-game appearance in 2019 and the college football playoffs in 2020. In that context, much-discussed comments he made recently to Sports Illustrated about not having a chip on his shoulder make sense. "His adversity's the expectations. He can't have a bad day," an AFC scout said. "To his credit, he's almost too good to be true of a kid. There are not a lot of adults, in our league or any walk of life, that can handle that spotlight that kid's been under. And he's kind of embraced it. This guy's been told how great he is. This guy's had those expectations coming in, which was a different kind of pressure, and he lived up to it."
The question now is, can Lawrence live up to the expectations in the NFL, too? Scouts and coaches who have dug into the tape see a player more than deserving of the No. 1 pick, though not a perfect prospect or quite an Andrew Luck-type slam dunk. Lawrence doesn't have an elite arm. He could add some more pounds to his frame. Some question his pocket awareness and feel. He has a little hitch in his release. He'll throw some balls into coverage and get some balls batted down because he has a little lower release. He'll have a learning curve coming from a Clemson offense doesn't feature a ton of pro-style, dropback-type reads and throws, though fellow Tigers alum Deshaun Watson made that transition fairly smoothly.
"Trevor Lawrence is a really good player," an NFC coordinator said. "I don't know if he's a generational talent like people are saying." Said an AFC quarterbacks coach: "If you didn't take him and you're Jacksonville, and it turned out that he was a perennial Pro Bowler, then you'll never live it down. They have to take him. I think the intangibles are there. He can throw the ball. But he does not have unique, rare playmaking ability. If I'm comparing last year to this year, Joe Burrow (who was drafted first overall by the Bengals) is picked over Trevor Lawrence 100 times out of 100." Lawrence moved up his pro day throwing session to Feb. 12 and had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left (non-throwing) shoulder four days later. He has already resumed running and began throwing a few weeks ago, a source said, keeping him on track to be ready for training camp. "There's just over-scouting that goes on in our league -- like a guy's got to have holes or something," a college scouting director said. "I go back to when [Lawrence] was a freshman -- if he could enter the draft [then], he would've been the first pick to me after his freshman year. What is giving people pause are probably the two (college football playoff) games he lost, the one to Burrow (and LSU, in the title game) and the one to (Justin) Fields (and Ohio State, in a semifinal game) where he wasn't at his best, to be straight about it. But he's so good and talented and athletic. C'mon. That guy can win you Super Bowls."
Rank
2
Zach Wilson
Zach Wilson
BYU · Round 1
If there were any doubt about Wilson's status as the consensus No. 2 QB in this class, he erased it with an epic pro day throwing session March 26 that showcased all the flash in his game. "Zach Wilson's may be the best I've ever seen," said one general manager who attended. "And his arm is ridiculous." With latitude from BYU's coaches and extensive work with his private QB coach, John Beck, Wilson has evolved his mechanics to the point he can flick the ball across his body with ease like a shortstop turning a double play. And after dealing with injuries his first two seasons on campus, Wilson came back healthy in 2020, won a training camp battle for the job and had a monster season: 73.5 percent passing for 3,692 yards with 33 touchdown passes and just three interceptions, plus 10 rushing TDs as the Cougars went 11-1, albeit against inferior competition.
"You watch him flutter some balls around with the bum shoulder and then the broken thumb at the end of [2019] you're not that impressed. Then you watch him this year and he's just f---ing ripping it everywhere," said an NFC scout who studied Wilson extensively. "The kid's smart as s---. He's gonna work. He's gonna compete. He's really talented. It's just a matter of how long that story can play out and not rub some people the wrong way, being a true dude and a leader and that presence." Those have been the two main questions throughout the pre-draft process: There's durability, given Wilson's relatively slight frame (6-2 1/8, 214) and injury history, including a torn labrum in his right (throwing) shoulder suffered in high school that required surgery after his freshman season at BYU in 2018, a torn labrum in his left shoulder and a fractured right thumb that required surgery and sidelined him for over a month during the 2019 season. "My man is not a big guy, now," a college scouting director said. "He's got thin shoulders, he's got a thin waist. You get you a couple Tremaine Edmunds and (Dont'a) Hightowers in your s---, and you ain't lasting long."
And then there's Wilson's ability to connect with NFL teammates, who surely can get on board with their new QB's edge, boy-band looks and swagger, as long as Wilson's dealing and they're winning games. One executive described it last month as "a little bit of Baker Mayfield syndrome, where you like [the edge] to a point. It's just whether or not you can control it and toe the line." Others compare Zach Wilson to Russell Wilson, a seven-time Pro Bowl pick and Super Bowl champion whose relationship with the Seahawks has become strained after nearly a decade in Seattle, with his personal brand growing beyond football. There's no spotlight like New York, where the Jets own the No. 2 overall pick. If Zach Wilson stays healthy, he has the talent to be a superstar. "If I was picking No. 1 -- hoo, man, it'd be hard for me not to take him over Trevor," an AFC quarterbacks coach said. "He's got real playmaking ability. He's shorter (than Lawrence) -- I get it. But he's got ball all about him. He makes plays -- unique plays."
Rank
3
Justin Fields
Justin Fields
Ohio State · Round 1
The physical traits are all there for Fields (6-2 3/4, 227 pounds), who has a big arm and backed up his play speed by blazing a 4.46-second 40-yard dash at his pro day. "Justin Fields is uber-talented," an NFC coordinator said. "To me, he is probably a more pure quarterback than Kyler Murray (who was drafted first overall by the Cardinals in 2019), throws it better and he's bigger. I'd love to get my hands on that guy." A transfer from Georgia after his true freshman season, Fields was a Heisman finalist in his first season with the Buckeyes in 2019, when he put up huge numbers -- 3,273 passing yards with 41 touchdowns and just three interceptions, plus 484 yards rushing with 10 more scores -- on a team that went 13-1. He helped Ohio State reach the national championship game in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 2,100 yards and 22 touchdowns in eight games.
Media speculation about Fields' work ethic was overblown, though several coaches and scouts said they have questions about Fields' drive based in part on how things for him ended at Georgia after the much less-talented Jake Fromm retained the job in 2018. Others praised Fields for starting a petition and becoming a face of the successful push to get the Big Ten to reconsider its decision to cancel fall football, when he could’ve just turned his attention to the draft. And he showed toughness by missing just one play after a monster hit early in the national semifinal against Clemson, finishing with six touchdown passes in a 49-28 rout of Lawrence and the Tigers. The real question continues to be how well Fields processes and sees the field, coming from an Ohio State offense that's designed to limit what the QB has to read and let him play fast. "He has to see it open," an AFC executive said. "I think you appreciate [Fields' game] more when you see him live, because it's just how he's built. And I think he'll work all f---ing day. But I don't think it's ever been demanded of him from the mental side of the game." Said a coach: "You've got to do your homework, because the fact of the matter is, he's just not being asked to (process) for a lot of things. But you talk to (Ohio State coach) Ryan Day, you talk to those guys out there, they'll tell you he absolutely can. And in the interview, I would tell you yes. There's going to be a learning curve, but I think he can do it, for sure." Several people brought up the struggles of past Ohio State QBs coming from the same system, though as one AFC GM put it: "It's not Fields' fault (Dwayne) Haskins was a [mess]." Fields' hands (9 1/8 inches) are on the smaller side, but big enough.
Teams learned through the pre-draft medical process that Fields takes medication to manage epilepsy -- a neurological disorder that can cause seizures, but which hasn't affected Fields' football career, and which doctors are confident he'll grow out of, as other members of his family have. Team medical staffs have discussed Fields' treatment plan and whether any events during his NFL career, such as a concussion, could put him at greater risk. But as Day tweeted Wednesday, Fields never missed a game during his college career, and he wouldn't be the first NFL player to excel while managing epilepsy. (Most notable, Pro Football Hall of Fame guard Alan Faneca took medication to control seizures throughout his career.)
There remain questions about how Fields' quieter personality and leadership style will play in an NFL locker room (though it's worth noting the 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year, Justin Herbert, faced similar questions during the pre-draft process a year ago). The early word was, Fields didn't really get to know his teammates his first year on campus, focusing solely on winning the job. But Fields was named a captain in 2020, and the people at Ohio State now vouch for him on that front, too. "The people there believe in Justin," an AFC coordinator said. "His ability to throw the deep ball [is exceptional]. He was pissed he ran 4.4 (at the pro day), he kind of stumbled, but that's a big man now that can move. The big thing's going to be, does all this negative publicity make him have a chip on his shoulder? Is he that kind of kid?"
Rank
4
Mac Jones
Mac Jones
Alabama · Round 1
Can a quarterback without a special physical trait be a top-three draft pick? That's the question for the 49ers, who have been linked extensively to Jones since trading up to No. 3 and have a coach in Kyle Shanahan who values two traits Jones does bring to the table: quick processing and accuracy. "It's a fit for what they do -- an exact fit for what they do," an AFC GM said. "And [Shanahan's] one of the few coaches that can identify and stand on the table for it."
Starting just 17 college games, Jones was extremely productive after waiting his turn behind Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa at Alabama, completing 74.3 percent of his passes for 6,126 yards and 56 touchdowns with just seven interceptions in his career. That includes a 2020 season in which Jones completed 77.4 percent of passes for 4,500 yards and a 41:4 TD-to-INT ratio while helping the Crimson Tide to a 13-0 record and a national title. Jones also earned first-team all-America honors, the Davey O'Brien Award as the nation's top QB and an invite to the Senior Bowl, where he had a good week. "Mac's 'Bama tape is really, really good. There's no denying that," a college scouting director said. "But you watch him in Mobile -- this doesn't really feel like a big, big, big-time guy. You trade all that s---, for him?"
Jones (6-2 5/8, 217) certainly doesn't have the athletic ability or chiseled physique of some of the other top QBs, but he still timed and tested at his pro day, wanting to compete. He has a high football IQ, is super competitive and impressed in interviews. "If you said, 'Take one of these guys to start in a game tomorrow in the NFL,' he's the most ready," an NFC quarterbacks coach said. "But he's right up against the ceiling to me, where these other guys, if they can progress -- you're talking about Justin Fields and Zach Wilson -- those are going to be dangerous dudes now." And there's the rub on Jones, whose skeptics also point out he benefitted from playing on the nation's most talented team, behind an offensive line that gave him a lot of clean pockets.
He had to answer during the pre-draft process for some issues in his past, including trouble controlling his temper that carried over from his youth tennis days to early in his tenure at Alabama, as well as a well-publicized DUI arrest as a freshman in 2017. "I don't even trust the player, let alone that," an AFC executive said. "Who can't throw to four first-rounders and hand the ball to Najee (Harris)?" But those who have spoken to Jones say he comes across as mature and having learned from his mistakes, and the people at Alabama vouch for him -- including teammates Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith, who spoke highly in interviews of Jones even in comparison to Tagovailoa, and former Alabama OC Steve Sarkisian.
"The one thing about him that's different than the other [top QBs] is he can come up to the line of scrimmage and he can tell you where he's going with it pre-snap," an NFC scout said. "He's smart enough to know where his outs are and what you're going to do with him based on where the safeties are at and what you're doing on defense. I felt like he was really, really sharp, and Sark says unbelievable things about him."
Rank
5
Trey Lance
Trey Lance
North Dakota State · Round 1
It's a total projection on Lance, who has NFL size (6-3 7/8, 224), arm strength and athletic ability, but started just 17 games against lesser competition in the Missouri Valley Football Conference, operating a run-first offense for a team that has won eight of the last nine FCS championships. "If you're making the argument for him, you can put a tape together and say, 'Wow, look at this!' " an AFC quarterbacks coach said. "If you're completely objective -- maybe it's in there, but it's not consistent enough. His accuracy's kind of all over the place. There's no question he's talented. But almost every game, they're the better team, and it's not even close. Their offense is a lot of one-read, find-the-checkdown -- there's not a lot of NFL-style progression offense. You're betting on the come with him completely."
In 2019, Lance completed 192 of 287 passes (66.9%) for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns without an interception -- a remarkable stat at any level -- in addition to running for another 1,100 yards and 14 scores. He has smallish hands (9 1/8 inches). A lower, somewhat elongated release (which Lance has worked to tighten during the pre-draft process) raises questions about how well Lance can adapt when he sees the speed and disguise of NFL defenses. And accuracy remains a big question on Lance, who did nothing to answer it in the only game he played in 2020 after COVID-19 bumped the Bison's conference schedule to the spring: a "showcase" game in October against Central Arkansas in which Lance accounted for four touchdowns in a 39-28 win, but seemed to be pressing; he finished 15-of-30 passing, relied more on his legs, lost a fumble and threw the first interception of his career.
"Trey Lance misses way too many throws for me," an NFC quarterbacks coach said. "The game he played this year was atrocious. It was the first one I watched, and honestly, I couldn't believe this was the guy they were talking about." Said a college scouting director: "That's Central f---ing Arkansas. That's bad. It's hard to say, 'We're gonna take this guy top-three' -- what's the best team this guy has ever played? James Madison? That's scary. But I will say, everyone you ever talk to about the kid, the makeup is legitimately through the roof. Whatever the ceiling is, he'll make it."
For all the unanswerable questions about Lance the player, nobody is betting against Lance the person. "His interview was amazing. He's a smart m-----f-----. He's 20 years old," said an AFC executive, who downplayed issues with Lance's accuracy. "He's f---ing throwing to me and you. He throws a pretty deep ball. I think the kid has big upside." Unlike many QBs coming out of college, Lance has operated from under center and had the authority to make checks at the line. Carson Wentz made the jump from the same program and was an MVP candidate by his second season, though he had more experience (42 games, 23 starts) and helped his cause against tougher competition at the Senior Bowl. There were no all-star games for Lance, who has thrown more than 23 passes in a game just twice. Some who attended Lance's first pro day March 12 felt he looked tight with his release. "His second workout was much better," said an NFC executive who watched the tape. "He didn't look so mechanical. His motion, it seemed more fluid. I thought he let it rip a little bit more. He showed more movement stuff, in terms of throwing on the run and off-platform -- just more of what his game is." That workout included drills and throws utilized by the 49ers, and speculation has picked up in league circles the past few days that Lance is in the mix for the No. 3 pick. There's still a lot of unknown. But as one NFC GM put it: "Trey Lance has got a chance."
Rank
6
Kellen Mond
Kellen Mond
Texas A&M · Round 2-3
Mond shattered Aggies records in career passing yards (9,661), passing touchdowns (71), completions (801) and attempts (1,358) in 47 career games (44 starts), then helped his cause with a strong Senior Bowl performance that earned him MVP honors. Multiple sources raised the long-shot possibility of Mond (6-2 5/8, 211) being a surprise first-round pick. But scouts and coaches struggle to get over how stiff Mond looks on tape and in person -- a common thread in Jimbo Fisher-trained QBs, such as Jameis Winston and Christian Ponder. As an AFC executive put it on Mond: "Even though he's fast (4.61 40) and has a good arm, he's like a g--d--- robot." One coordinator compared Mond to another onetime Fisher QB, EJ Manuel. "He's got that Jimbo thing about him," an AFC quarterbacks coach said of Mond. "Jimbo teaches this very stiff elbows in the drop. He kind of looks robotic, and he really shouldn't be a robotic type of guy."
Mond transferred to IMG Academy after his junior year of high school and is almost overly polished in interviews. He's known as a good note-taker and has a high football IQ. "He's a reserved, quiet dude, but really, really smart," an NFC quarterbacks coach said of Mond. "The thing I get stuck on with him was, there wasn't anything I could say was outstanding about him physically. It's not elite arm strength, it's not consistent down-the-field accuracy. I thought he was going to be more athletic than he is on tape. He's a little stiff." Mond's more slight build, particularly in the lower body, also raises questions, though he's been durable throughout his college career, even while getting sacked 34 times in 2018.
"Jimbo asks a lot of quarterbacks to operate that system, and he's been able to do it even though he looks like a wideout," an AFC scout said. "I don't know if he's necessarily the big, vocal leader presence. We were walking around the Senior Bowl, he had his headphones on, staying in his own world. But on the field, I think the guy's got some moxie about him. And he knows the game."
Rank
7
Kyle Trask
Kyle Trask
Florida · Round 2-3
A second-team All-America pick and Heisman Trophy finalist, Trask set school records with 43 touchdown passes (most in FBS) and 4,283 yards last season for the Gators, whom he led to 16 wins in 22 starts over the past two seasons after taking over the starting job from an injured Feleipe Franks. He has NFL size (6-5 1/4, 236), huge hands (10 1/8 inches) and a savviness scouts appreciate. But Trask is an old-school pocket passer in a league that increasingly favors QBs who can extend plays. "I think he's tough, he's competitive, he was really productive in obviously the toughest division in all of college football," an NFC quarterbacks coach said. "But I would watch him sometimes -- the lower half is so heavy and slow. He looks hurt. He wears that big knee brace, which doesn't help. If you don't have a big running game and you don't have a good offensive line, this dude's going to get killed."
In fairness, Trask was hurt toward the end of last season -- he played through a severe left high ankle sprain and was in so much pain in the Cotton Bowl against Oklahoma he had to go to the bench early in the second half. Trask missed the Senior Bowl and didn't even resume jogging until early March, weeks before his pro day, where he ran a 5.07 40, and is moving better since. The rest of Trask's medical report is long -- surgery for a torn meniscus in the spring of 2017, a broken bone in each foot that required a screw in 2017 and 2018, respectively, and minor surgery on his left (non-throwing) elbow to remove a bone chip -- but nothing overly concerning to teams.
He throws with good touch and timing, but scouts rate his overall arm talent as good, not great. "Trask is just an absolute statue back there. And I'm not sure he's got the arm talent to match it," an AFC coordinator said. "Normally if you've got a guy that's not very mobile, not very swift on his feet, he's gotta make up for it with a Howitzer." Trask does have fans; one scout ranked him fourth in this year's class, ahead of Mac Jones and Trey Lance. A team like the Buccaneers, who have Tom Brady at quarterback and Byron Leftwich as offensive coordinator, surely wouldn't be spooked by drafting a QB who has to play on-schedule from the pocket. And Trask has proven people wrong before -- he didn't start a game in high school while playing behind future Houston and Miami QB D'Eriq King, had only one FBS scholarship offer and sat for three years at Florida before getting his shot. In his first road start -- ever -- he threw for 310 yards and three touchdowns in a 42-28 loss to eventual national champion LSU in 2019. "Trask was catching steam there during the season when he was putting up the numbers," another AFC exec said. "I just think there's a clear step below, really across the board -- athleticism, arm strength. Even going back and studying him again, it's like, eh, maybe it's a little better than I thought, but I think maybe there's just a ceiling on the guy."
Rank
8
Davis Mills
Davis Mills
Stanford · Round 2-3
Mills started just 11 games in four years at Stanford, where he completed 65.5 percent of his passes for 3,468 yards with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions. But a solid pro day in the rain last month showed off Mills' upside -- if he can stay healthy. "It's effortless when the ball came out. Really good mechanics. He really grew on me," an NFC quarterbacks coach said. "If you came back to me in two years and said that guy is a middle-of-the-pack starter in the NFL, I'm not going to be shocked. And if you tell me he's a backup or he didn't make it, I wouldn't be shocked. He's got something." Said an AFC coordinator: "I think he can make all the throws, shows you arm talent to make every throw. Only thing that scares you there is obviously the injuries."
One of the nation's top recruits in high school, Mills suffered a torn ACL before his senior year in 2016, and sources say he has had four total surgeries on his left knee, the last in 2018: the original ACL reconstruction, a revision (redo) on the ACL, a meniscus repair and a procedure to remove a suture. He finally got his chance with the Cardinal in 2019 and, after missing several games with a left calf strain, returned to finish strong, passing for a school-record 504 yards against Washington State. He also had some bad luck, missing last season's opener after a false positive test for COVID-19, and played through a left hip strain.
"His hype's a little bit out of control," an NFC scout said. "He's not mobile. He's not durable. His arm's OK. Kevin Hogan almost had more than he has in terms of just mobility and making plays. He came in beat up. He already doesn't run well. His escape ability under pressure, clutch playmaking -- all that stuff is really, really suspect." Mills did flash some athletic ability at his pro day, running a 4.81 40 and posting a 6.95 three-cone drill at 6-3 3/4, 217 pounds that was the best among draftable QBs in this class. "He is off the charts in terms of intelligence," an AFC quarterbacks coach said. "He's only played 11 games. Where does he fit? I don't know. But if the physical catches up, he's got a chance."
Rank
9
Feleipe Franks
Feleipe Franks
Arkansas · Round 5-6
NFL size (6-6 5/8, 234 pounds) and an impressive pro day workout -- including a 4.59 40-yard dash -- ensured somebody will gamble on Franks' physical traits as a developmental prospect. "He's just raw as s---," an NFC GM said. "But he's big. He's 6-6 and ran 4.5. He's got a big arm. He can throw the ball. He just needs a lot of mechanical work. But he'll get drafted, because he's got a lot of upside."
Franks started 24 games at Florida before suffering a dislocated and fractured ankle in 2019 that opened the door for Kyle Trask. He went as a graduate transfer to Arkansas, started working with a private QB coach, Steve Calhoun, and completed 68.5 percent of his passes for 2,107 yards with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions in eight starts last fall. "Film at Arkansas was probably better than what I was expecting off the Florida stuff," a college scouting director said. But Franks still has a long ways to go. As another team source said: "Of the guys I interviewed at the Senior Bowl, [Franks is the one] you walked away saying, he's going to have to learn a lot."
Franks' arm is so good, the Boston Red Sox took him in the 31st round of the 2019 MLB Amateur Draft as a pitcher, even though Franks hadn't played baseball since his junior year of high school. His brother, Jordan, played three seasons in the NFL as a tight end, and one coordinator predicted Franks could be taken for a "Logan Thomas-type role" -- drafted as a QB, with the possibility of moving him to tight end in a year or two. "I liked him a little more than our scouts, just because he has traits," another coordinator said. "If you're going to coach a guy and try to develop him, don't get (Texas' Sam) Ehlinger -- you know exactly what you're getting. Draft Franks, because the 5 percent chance [he] can be a No. 2, you might hit."
Rank
10
Ian Book
Ian Book
Notre Dame · Round 6-7
A two-time captain who became the winningest quarterback in the illustrious history of the Fighting Irish -- 30-5, including 15-0 at home -- Book has innate playmaking instincts. He knows how to manage a game. He has impressed in interviews with teams and showed off athletic ability at his pro day, running a 4.65 40 with a 32.5-inch vertical and 9-7 broad jump. He just lacks NFL arm talent and stands 6 feet even.
"Maybe somebody takes a flier on a Book, but I don't think that kid's got what it takes to play in the league," an AFC coordinator said. "He's got perfectly clean pockets that he bails on all the time, and it's because he can't see." In 47 college games (35 starts), Book completed 63.8 percent of his passes for 8,948 yards and 72 touchdowns with 20 interceptions. He ran for another 1,517 yards and 17 scores. "I enjoyed watching his tape," an NFC coordinator said. "He's got some swag to him. He's got some moxie to him. He knows how to play football."
Rank
11
Sam Ehlinger
Sam Ehlinger
Texas · Round 7 or priority free agent
With 43 career starts, Ehlinger (6-1 1/8, 220) is the most experienced QB in this class and accounted for 127 touchdowns with the Longhorns -- 94 passing and 33 running -- in a no-huddle, run-first, spread offense light on NFL-style concepts. "He can throw the s--- out of the RPO slant, I'll tell you that. If I need him to complete an 18-yard dig route, I have no idea, because it's not on tape," an NFC quarterbacks coach said. "I just liked [Ehlinger] as a tough-ass, competitive dude." Ehlinger's vertical jump (36.5) was the best among draftable QBs who tested this year. He was a two-time team captain and a finalist for the William V. Campbell Trophy (a.k.a. the academic Heisman).
"I'm not an Ehlinger guy," an NFC coordinator said. "Now, his interview was unbelievable. That kid should be a coach." Ehlinger fulfilled a lifelong dream by suiting up for Texas, the alma mater of his father, Ross, who passed away in 2013 from a heart attack while competing in the Escape from Alcatraz triathlon. "This kid is super mature, really grounded," an AFC quarterbacks coach said. "He doesn't quite throw it well enough."
Rank
12
Shane Buechele
Shane Buechele
SMU · Round 7 or priority free agent
Buechele was the starter at Texas before ankle and shoulder injuries in 2017 opened the door for Sam Ehlinger, who never gave back the job. Buechele left as a graduate transfer and spent the past two seasons at SMU, leading the Mustangs to a 17-6 record while completing 63.8 percent of his passes for 7,024 yards and 57 touchdowns with 16 interceptions. "Just watching him play, he's a little bit like [Case Keenum]," an AFC coordinator said. "He's not the best passer, but he'll move around to make plays and improvise a little bit." Like Ian Book, Buechele has size (6-0 1/4, 210) and arm talent working against him. But Buechele has leadership traits, is competitive and has the chance to develop into a solid backup with upside. "He's a good little college football player," an AFC quarterbacks coach said. "Probably a real low ceiling, but he'll be in the mix."
Rank
13
Jamie Newman
Jamie Newman
Wake Forest · Round 7 or priority free agent
There's no denying Newman (6-2 7/8, 234) is talented and flashed at times at Wake Forest, where he accounted for 45 touchdowns in 21 career games (16 starts) from 2017 to '19. But the events of the past 16 months -- transferring to Georgia in hopes of showing what he could do in a pro-style offense, not winning the starting job outright, then making a controversial decision to opt out amidst COVID-19 and finally underwhelming on and off the field at the Senior Bowl -- leave it in doubt that Newman gets drafted at all. "He should [get drafted] based on the way he looks, and he's got a nice arm," a college scouting director said. "I just thought his Wake Forest tape was no good. There's very questionable makeup on the kid. ... He goes to Georgia, gets beat out. He leaves the team. ... Then the Senior Bowl wasn't very good."
Still, some team may be willing to take a shot on Newman's athletic traits. "He's built like a linebacker. They were doing a lot of the zone-read, quarterback runs, he's running over guys (at Wake Forest)," an AFC scout said. "It's a shame, because I think people see the talent and they see the potential. There has just been some decision-making along the road that [makes you] question some maturity there from that position."
He can throw the ball. But he does not have unique, rare playmaking ability. If I'm comparing last year to this year, Joe Burrow (who was drafted first overall by the Bengals) is picked over Trevor Lawrence 100 times out of 100."
He can throw the ball. But he does not have unique, rare playmaking ability. If I'm comparing last year to this year, Joe Burrow (who was drafted first overall by the Bengals) is picked over Trevor Lawrence 100 times out of 100."
AFC QB coach. I said this months ago.
Yep. There's some interesting tidbits in that article that speak to many things we've debated over the last few months.
Certainly validates some less-popular opinions like the one you mentioned.
Everything else is Mahomes (and being tall isn't really a QB skill-see Brock Osweiler).
Heck compare Lawrence to Luck even.
Lawrence is going to be a good NFL QB. But generational talent? Nah, I don't see it. To be that kind of player, you have to have something "more". Even Luck didn't have it in volume. That "it" factor, the "want to", the ability to just take a team on your back and will them to victory. I just don't see that with Lawrence.
Lawrence is going to be a good NFL QB. But generational talent? Nah, I don't see it. To be that kind of player, you have to have something "more". Even Luck didn't have it in volume. That "it" factor, the "want to", the ability to just take a team on your back and will them to victory. I just don't see that with Lawrence.
Agreed. He will start for many years. Can even have some success. I just think people are going to turn on him early because he isn't good enough to turn around Jax.
Agreed. He will start for many years. Can even have some success. I just think people are going to turn on him early because he isn't good enough to turn around Jax.
Yep.
I also think the comments on Lance are interesting. They kind of mirror my thinking. He really NEEDS to go to San Francisco, for both of their sakes. The concerns about Lance being raw and untested are valid and he's not going to succeed playing anywhere. He couldn't run Andy's offense, for example. Shanahan has a system that he can jump into and actually play early while still developing. And I can't imagine San Francisco traded up to #3 to draft Jimmy G part 2.
Finally, I don't know what to think of Justin Fields. I simply cannot watch him play and separate him from Cardale Jones or Troy Smith or JT Barrett or Dwayne Haskins. Ryan Day says the ask him to do all the things an NFL QB will do but we simply know that's not true. However, right next to the criticisms I have about his ability to read NFL defenses and the like, I see draft experts I respect saying he has elite ability, especially athletically, and that he has a demeanor to be a winner at the NFL level.
I also think the comments on Lance are interesting. They kind of mirror my thinking. He really NEEDS to go to San Francisco, for both of their sakes. The concerns about Lance being raw and untested are valid and he's not going to succeed playing anywhere. He couldn't run Andy's offense, for example. Shanahan has a system that he can jump into and actually play early while still developing. And I can't imagine San Francisco traded up to #3 to draft Jimmy G part 2.
Finally, I don't know what to think of Justin Fields. I simply cannot watch him play and separate him from Cardale Jones or Troy Smith or JT Barrett or Dwayne Haskins. Ryan Day says the ask him to do all the things an NFL QB will do but we simply know that's not true. However, right next to the criticisms I have about his ability to read NFL defenses and the like, I see draft experts I respect saying he has elite ability, especially athletically, and that he has a demeanor to be a winner at the NFL level.
Fields is the toughest evaluation, IMO. I see a lot of positives. Also see scary stuff where he freezes or hold on to the ball too long. Similar issues with Josh Allen in post snap processing. But his speed and arm can be used as a weapon if you let him attack deep a lot and get him on the move.
I think he could look a bit like Watson in the right system. Could look terrible if he went to someone stubborn like Nagy in Chicago.
Fields is the toughest evaluation, IMO. I see a lot of positives. Also see scary stuff where he freezes or hold on to the ball too long. Similar issues with Josh Allen in post snap processing. But his speed and arm can be used as a weapon if you let him attack deep a lot and get him on the move.
I think he could look a bit like Watson in the right system. Could look terrible if he went to someone stubborn like Nagy in Chicago.
Yeah, the Watson comparison is probably pretty apt now that I think about it.
Lynch made a stupid trade up to #3 "if" you don't know which QB you want. The Chiefs knew they wanted Mahomes & went after him. I think the 49ers "know" exactly who they want & are playing stupid.
Lynch made a stupid trade up to #3 "if" you don't know which QB you want. The Chiefs knew they wanted Mahomes & went after him. I think the 49ers "know" exactly who they want & are playing stupid.
I posted the article in a thread in the main forum but they know who they want.
Lynch said yesterday that Shanahan has the ultimate say.
Shanahan said, and I quote, "we felt that we needed a good starting quarterback this year and add that to our team."
They moved up to #3 to take Mac Jones and that's been the plan all along.
04-23-2021, 10:44 AM
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