***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

Studies showed potential for 50% infection rate, and 1.6 to 2.2 million dead without mitigation efforts.

I wish they would clarify if even the current estimates account for this cycle or for 2 or 3 cycles.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by TLO

The president said we're extending the "Stop the Spread" guidelines until April 30th.

The death rate peak is supposed to hit in 2 weeks. (According to the models)

I assume Easter is exempted.

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by TLO

So if I'm reading correctly the clinical trials of chloroquine start in New York tomorrow?

Chloroquine or Hydroxychloroquine?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by TLO

I wish they would clarify if even the current estimates account for this cycle or for 2 or 3 cycles.

As I've said, it doesn't make any sense to use those numbers for the first wave of this thing. We don't even know if there will be another. So, it's safe to assume that they are talking about until the COVID-19 pandemic is over.

[Monticore]

I think someone was asking earlier if influenza can cause long term issues , my wife says she has patients with long term lung issues and some have developed seizure disorders. I think influenza should be taken more seriously than it does , we have staff at our hospital that still refuse the flu shot.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

As I've said, it doesn't make any sense to use those numbers for the first wave of this thing. We don't even know if there will be another. So, it's safe to assume that they are talking about until the COVID-19 pandemic is over.

Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci aren't making that entirely clear. Though yes, I agree with you.

[FAX]

I eat my bats with batter;
I will 'till I'm retired.
It doesn't make me fatter,
But it does make me expired.

FAX

[Titty Meat]

The Mississippi gov continues to reject doing a lockdown

[Donger]

New cases yesterday = 19,452
New cases today (so far) = 17,412

[TLO]

The 5 minute test thing Abbot made sounds amazing. I wonder what the accuracy is on that test?

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

The Mississippi gov continues to reject doing a lockdown

Missouri isn't doing a "lockdown" either. Not statewide at least.

[displacedinMN]

Going to start teaching tomorrow. Distance learning.

Won't see the kids face to face..may be a good thing.

[Titty Meat]

Same story today. New cases have plateaued but so has testing.

Newly detected cases

Sun—20,827
Sat—18,821
Fri—18,678
Thu—16,807

New tests reported*

Sun—95,647
Sat—109,071
Fri—107,295
Thu—97,806

Note: some states do not have reliable test data—CA especially has been weird.

[kgrund]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

The other important issue about chloroquinine that hasn't been mentioned in this thread (or if it has, I missed it) but it will not "cure" or kill the virus: It only slows down replication.

Now, if the clinical trials indicate that it slows down the virus, awesome, but it's not a cure nor will it stop the spread of the virus.

And under no circumstances should people self-medicate because this is an extremely dangerous drug that will cause death if not used properly.

It may not be a cure, BUT it does what is hoped, that would be huge. At this point, it is all about keeping people out of ICUs.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Same story today. New cases have plateaued but so has testing.

Newly detected cases

Sun—20,827
Sat—18,821
Fri—18,678
Thu—16,807

New tests reported*

Sun—95,647
Sat—109,071
Fri—107,295
Thu—97,806

Note: some states do not have reliable test data—CA especially has been weird.

A plateau in testing might be a good sign. If they are only testing people showing symptoms then perhaps that's good. I don't think anyone really knows at this point.

A stating CA is weird is just, well, obvious for many reasons......