*** Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository

[duncan_idaho]

The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one.

Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time?

Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository!

Royals Top Prospects, 2017

This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services.

Spoiler!

Format: POS/Name/2017 Projected Final Level

1) 3B/OF Hunter Dozier, MLB. Dozier bounced back from a disastrous 2015 campaign that had many wondering, myself included, if he was wrecked. His strong offensive performance in 2016 saw Dozier recapture the mature approach that many liked coming up, while also starting to tap into his above-average raw power for the first time.

In addition to his success at the plate, Dozier also proved he could at least HANDLE an OF spot, which could put him in the conversation for 2017 playing time at the major leagues. If the Royals DO end up trading Cheslor Cuthbert, Dozier could find a decent amount of MLB playing time sliding between RF and 3B. With Moustakas recovering from knee surgery, he likely will need more regular breaks from the field. And the streaky Paulo Orlando is just not an intriguing short-side platoon partner for Jarrod Dyson.

2) LHP Matt Strahm, MLB. Strahm just barely skates under the rookie eligibility rules for a pitcher, so he can be included here. Royals fans already got a taste of the lefty’s abilities, as he used his above-average fastball and slurve to dominate out of the pen in 2016. For him to translate that dominance to the rotation, Strahm will need to maintain his velocity (92-94) and continue to improve a changeup that flashed average at times.

If the changeup becomes a weapon he can lean on against righties, Strahm could be a very solid mid-rotation starter and fringe ToR/No. 2 type (think Danny Duffy-lite).

3) RHP Josh Staumont, AAA. This one could blow up on me and look really silly by this time next year, but I’m encouraged by what we saw from Staumont late last year. He showed significantly improved control down the stretch for Northwest Arkansas, including some impressive playoff starts, while maintaining the big-time K ability. That trend continued in the Arizona Fall League.

If Staumont’s control holds, the Royals have a guy with a plus fastball, plus-plus curve, and average change (with a slider that could develop into a real weapon as he matures). He’ll start next season at AAA and could be an addition to the MLB bullpen or even the rotation before the season ends.

4) RF Jorge Bonifacio, AAA. Boni, like Dozier, had a bounceback season in 2016 with the bat, and also played 15-20 pounds lighter than the year before, which added some nice defensive utility according to reports I’ve gotten. He now looks like a guy could provide solid/average RF production in the major leagues… Average defense paired with potential to put up a .275/.335/.450 line. While that’s not all-star level, it IS playable. Especially at pre-arbitration dollars. He’ll get another year in Omaha to refine his approach, and likely be in the mix of a 2018 mini-youth movement… unless moved for MLB reinforcements.

5) C Meibrys Viloria, Low-A (Lexington). I haven’t seen him in person, but I like the pedigree. You’ve got a lefthanded hitting catcher with the defensive ability to stick behind the plate. He was a big-bonus guy out of Colombia (nearly $500k). And his offensive performance has been highly impressive early, with a good combination of power, plate discipline, and contact skills.

He’s forever away from the majors, just now clearing rookie ball, but Viloria is the most exciting prospect KC has had at Idaho Falls since someone on this board was gushing about a 16-year-old SS tearing it up.

6) 1B Ryan O’Hearn, AAA. O’Hearn is a guy who has never gotten a lot of hype from scouts, but he continues to be a strong producer. He’s someone who likely will strikeout about 25 percent of the time at the big-league level, but has the ability to be a .500+ SLG guy. That plays. He also has shown good patience at the plate, posting above-average OBPs at every level.

Bold prediction: I won’t be shocked if O’Hearn takes over at 1B for KC in 2018/2019 and provides similar offensive production to Hosmer out of the gate. He’s probably never going to be a consistent plus average (.290+) hitter, but .270 with 25 HR is something within reach for him. He’ll get his first shot at AAA in 2017.

7) RHP AJ Puckett, A+. Puckett is a high floor, low-ceiling guy who performed about as you’d expect in 2016 after being the Royals’ first pick in the 2016 Rule IV Draft. He’s not flashy, but Puckett does profile as a solid potential back-end starter. Good fastball command and an above-average changeup are his calling cards. If Puckett finds a reliable breaking ball to put batters away, this could tick up. Great athlete, very similar to Jake Odorizzi in that regard.

8) RF Khalil Lee, Low-A (Lexington). Lee was a two-way player in HS and many viewed him as a pitcher first as a pro, but the Royals drafted him as an OF and were reward with a strong debut campaign. Lee is not a big guy, but he produced solid power numbers despite that. He’s a dynamic athlete who could contribute with power and speed.

9) C Chase Vallot, High-A (Wilmington). Vallot has an intriguing bat, with plus raw power. Got off to a great start in 16 before being sidelined and then sidetracked by injury. RH bat may be good enough to push him out from behind the plate, where he has good tools but a long way to go.

10) RHP Jake Junis and RHP Alec Mills (AAA). I'm copping out here and including both at No. 10 because they're so similar. Like Puckett, they each project as a serviceable back of rotation starter. Similar stuff and profiles, though Junis has shown a little better strikeout ability and may have a smidge more upside as a result.

Others of note:

SS/CF Marten Gasparini. Production has been bad for this toolsy player, but Gasparini has speed and pop that jump out at you. At only 19, need to be patient with him... this European signee was even less polished when signing at 16 than the typical Latin America prospect.

OF Seuly Matias. Loud, loud tools. Matias profiles as a classic RF... big-time power potential. He's a long ways from the majors but is one of the Royals' biggest bonus babies from LA.

RHP Ashe Russell. 2014 1st rounder saw his velocity disappear last year and was quickly shut down. He's intriguing one way or the other, even if he ends up as another notch in the belt of the TINSTAAPP saying.

2B Corey Toups. O'Hearn's HS teammate has been an above-average producer for an up-the-middle player. His small stature hides a surprising amount of pop. Could turn into a Mark Grudzielanek type of offensive second baseman at his peak - solid average, lots of 2Bs.

RHP Scott Blewett, LHP Foster Griffin, RHP Nolan Watson - all three have underwhelmed as pros but were drafted in the supplemental round. Stuff and projectability for each is a positive. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of them take a Cody Reed-like step forward this season and crack the 50-75 range on prospect lists. They all have the natural ability.

SS/2B Ricky Aracena - Jose Altuve-sized Aracena is a switch hitting middle infielder who can flat out run. Switch hitter with a good approach.

RHP Pedro Fernandez - I'm still a believer in his stuff, even if he is destined for the pen. Was having a nice 2016 start until injuries derailed him right after his promotion to AA.

Sirs not Appearing in this Prospect List:

RHP Kyle Zimmer. Same story, different year. The Royals are hopeful they FINALLY found the cause of Zimmer's achy shoulder. If they really did, and he can stay healthy, the talent/potential is exciting.

OF Bubba Starling. Never trust a guy named Derek.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

There are a lot of "ifs," but I don't think the chances have entered remote territory yet.

A lot hinges on Duffy, Gordon, Moustakas, and Soler.

If Soler takes the step the Royals think regular PT will let him take...

If Duffy gives them a full year of ToR performance...

If Gordon bounces back with a .260/.340/.425 line (not a huge one, just a solid one) ...

If Moustakas is healthy and some approximation of the hitter he has been over his last 800-900 ABs (.270/.340/.500)...

I think you're talking about a team that is easily quite a few games better than it was a season ago. Enough to catch Cleveland? I don't know. But enough to be a playoff contender, for sure.

They're also in good shape to get comp picks for most of the pending free agents.

Hosmer for sure.

Duffy, Moustakas and Cain, if healthy in 2016, will get big enough deals to get comp picks.

If Kennedy opts out, they'll get a comp pick for him.


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Gordon won't suck two years in a row. If there is anybody more embarrassed and pissed off at not earning that pay check last year, it's Alex Gordon.

Right now, he's probably at the gym, putting up 4 plates on each side, on his 94th set, drinking a kale shake mixed with bull hearts, reviewing video from when he was dominating.

Meanwhile, Eric Hosmer is hanging out in Miami doing jagerbombs at the bar while his brother the swing coach tells him he needs to make his swing longer.

[tk13]

We sure seem to be hunting for power bats. Some of these guys seem like guys the front office has tried to avoid in the past. I wonder what our front office is thinking in the long range, if they're just trying to replace Morales' power or if there's a philosophy shift here.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by tk13

We sure seem to be hunting for power bats. Some of these guys seem like guys the front office has tried to avoid in the past. I wonder what our front office is thinking in the long range, if they're just trying to replace Morales' power or if there's a philosophy shift here.

If they determined that there's something to the juiced ball theory, then Kauffman's dimensions aren't going to be the advantage they were for a team with our 2015 composition.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Gordon won't suck two years in a row. If there is anybody more embarrassed and pissed off at not earning that pay check last year, it's Alex Gordon.

Right now, he's probably at the gym, putting up 4 plates on each side, on his 94th set, drinking a kale shake mixed with bull hearts, reviewing video from when he was dominating.

Meanwhile, Eric Hosmer is hanging out in Miami doing jagerbombs at the bar while his brother the swing coach tells him he needs to make his swing longer.

rep

[C3HIEF3S]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

If they'be determined that there's something to the juiced ball theory, then Kauffman'a dimensions aren't going to be the advantage they used to be for a team with our 2015 composition.

Fun fact of the night-
Since Selig's last season as commish through year 2 of Manfred, only 3 clubs in all of baseball haven't increased their home run totals. Maybe it's arbitrary, maybe it's not. However, it's hard to believe that all but 3 lousy teams (SFG, PIT, ATL) have advanced their power hitting on team-wide levels in just three seasons.. all at the same time.


The Royals were ahead of the game in 2014, and were still able to capitalize in 2015. Manfred's new Mega-Ball Era has just thrown them back behind the curve again. It's never been unnatural for home run totals to increase and decrease, it obviously happens as the game evolves. However, the only time home runs have increased at a pace near where they have been in the allotted time above, there was one hell of an external force -roids- shitting over the entire game. Which, actually, the increased offense is good for the future of baseball. The kiddos love home runs. However, if you're a Royals fan, this sucks.

[Prison Bitch]

We'll hit a decent # of HR this year. I've got Moose at 30, Soler-Power at 27, Hoz at 22 and Perez at 21. Who knows at DH. Gordon will probably continue to lag with maybe 14. Cain a real wild card (not the 17 from 2015 but probably not the 5 from 2014)

We will continue to see a lot of strikeouts at the plate though which we finally saw last year after historical low rates the prior 3 years. In a small market you pick your poisons and DM simply has to get more power in the new environment.

What we need this year is Duffy to pitch as he did, Yordano to rebound, and 500 IP from Kennedy-Vargas-Whoever. That's really what 2017 boils down to.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Trade Rumors reporting KC interest in Matt Adams.

Yuck.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/0...ls-royals.html


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PLEASE TAKE HIM AWAY!!!!!!

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

PLEASE TAKE HIM AWAY!!!!!!

It's so funny. A few Cards fans I know on PM saw this and assumed it would be a straight swap for Dyson, or possibly KC giving up more.

They didn't take it well when I posited it would take Adams PLUS a significant piece to warrant Dyson.



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[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

It's so funny. A few Cards fans I know on PM saw this and assumed it would be a straight swap for Dyson, or possibly KC giving up more.

They didn't take it well when I posited it would take Adams PLUS a significant piece to warrant Dyson.



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The issue isn't even Dyson's value in a vacuum, IMO. It's Dyson's value to the Royals relative to his value elsewhere.

If both players were just sitting on the street and you just picked teams at random to say "who would you rather have", there are some teams that would actually pick Adams over Dyson. I'd say probably 2-1 Dyson to Adams, but nothing unanimous. Their value, in a vacuum, while a little different isn't exponentially so due to Dyson's age and pending FA status.

But for the Royals, the guy's just so important. He's an extremely nice fit for what they do and what they need.

Personally, I'm not a huge Dyson fan. I don't think he's a genuine .340 OBP player because you can knock the bat out of his hands and I think full-time exposure to LH pitching will hurt his rate stats significantly. He's also a guy on the wrong side of his prime who gets his value from his legs. That said, I understand the value that the Royals are putting on him because he's that important to them AND there are other teams that would use him in a similar fashion and to similar impact.

And yes, I'd still dump Adams for him because **** Matt Adams. Anybody who is a professional athlete who can't be bothered to take care of his body can just **** right off. I watched that guy's hamstring explode while on a light jog because the fat, sweaty bastard can't be bothered to stretch and/or take his fitness seriously. He gets hurt annually because he won't stay in shape and his body can't handle the stress of regular playing time. The guy is a genuinely talented hitter but he just doesn't give a shit.

So I wouldn't be bothered if the Cardinals simply non-tendered him. Guys that think they've arrived and simply don't do the work annoy the hell out of me.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

If both players were just sitting on the street and you just picked teams at random to say "who would you rather have", there are some teams that would actually pick Adams over Dyson. I'd say probably 2-1 Dyson to Adams, but nothing unanimous. Their value, in a vacuum, while a little different isn't exponentially so due to Dyson's age and pending FA status.

I strongly doubt that. You can eliminate nearly 1/2 the teams (NL) who have almost no use for Adams, and some in the AL who wouldn't need him either at DH.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

I strongly doubt that. You can eliminate nearly 1/2 the teams (NL) who have almost no use for Adams, and some in the AL who wouldn't need him either at DH.

Perhaps.

But at the same time, you can almost certainly eliminate anyone that lost more than 90 games last year from choosing Dyson. He's just not much in the way of a long-term asset due to his age and contract status.

Adams, for everything he's not, has an outstanding minor league track record and that's generally the best way to identify future hitters. And when healthy, Adams has always been a very productive hitter against RH pitching. Finally, you're not quite right regarding Adams on defense. He's a fat guy, yes. But he's not the disaster you think he is defensively.

Adams is surprisingly agile for a fatass. When the Cards had Craig and Adams splitting time at 1b, there was no question who the better defensive 1b was (likewise with Adams and Moss). Adams has soft hands and is a good 'leg bender'. Poor 1bmen tend to break at their waist when trying to field a low throw. Adams, OTOH, has always been technically sound. He does a nice job of bending at his knees and tracking the throw all the way to the ground. It helps him a lot in trying to scoop it. He's a natural 1b and you can tell by watching his lower half and feet around the bag. He knows the position.

So no, I don't think he's a no-go for an NL team at all. He's a credible defensive 1b. The big issue with Adams would be whether or not a team decided it could get him motivated again. There will be teams out there that think "a trade could do him good and perhaps we could unlock the .280/.340/.500 hitter that his pedigree says he can be".

[Prison Bitch]

Well, every team wants to win games. I doubt many would turn down value if they could get it.

Dyson's last 4 years of fWAR: 2.5, 3.0, 1.8, 3.1. All in part time duty. He would fill valuable bench time for every MLB team. There are $10M players who don't have that production in full time play.

His contract status is actually a selling point. He's dirt cheap and wouldn't cost a top-50 prospect or anything. Plus you're done with him after this year when his speed value declines - no commitment. If I were a team looking at 81 wins or so, I'd definitely kick the tires on him to see if I could get over the hump.

(As you say however, that's exactly where the Royals are and why they're unlikely to trade him off)

[Strongside]

Speaking of Gordo, one of my coworkers was at Henhouse in Leawood a few nights ago and admitted that he was being a dick and checking out in the express lane with far more than 20 items, when none other than Alex Gordon walks up behind him with something like 4 items and sat them on the counter, in a frustrating manner. My coworker said he felt 2 feet tall.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by Strongside

Speaking of Gordo, one of my coworkers was at Henhouse in Leawood a few nights ago and admitted that he was being a dick and checking out in the express lane with far more than 20 items, when none other than Alex Gordon walks up behind him with something like 4 items and sat them on the counter, in a frustrating manner. My coworker said he felt 2 feet tall.

Was he buying bread?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Well, every team wants to win games. I doubt many would turn down value if they could get it.

Dyson's last 4 years of fWAR: 2.5, 3.0, 1.8, 3.1. All in part time duty. He would fill valuable bench time for every MLB team. There are $10M players who don't have that production in full time play.

His contract status is actually a selling point. He's dirt cheap and wouldn't cost a top-50 prospect or anything. Plus you're done with him after this year when his speed value declines - no commitment. If I were a team looking at 81 wins or so, I'd definitely kick the tires on him to see if I could get over the hump.

(As you say however, that's exactly where the Royals are and why they're unlikely to trade him off)

Eh, I've said this a dozen times and will continue to do so, I put only a little more stock in dWAR than I do batting average. WAR as a dispositive tool has led to some very silly decisions (I'm looking at you, Jason Heyward).

Though being a pending FA isn't a selling point when the player he's being compared to (or traded for) would have team control which, by it's very definition, allows you to walk away with no commitment via releasing a pre-arb player or non-tendering one that's in his arb years. Every team in baseball would rather have a pre-arb or 1st/2nd year arb player than a pending FA.