Jones vs. 1st Rounder + $20m

[DaFace]

Obviously this is going to be a key discussion this offseason. On The Athletic's podcast (Time's Ours), Nate Taylor said that he's heard that there are multiple teams out there who would give us a 1st round pick for Jones (assuming we tag and trade him), and possibly more than that.

So just to lay out a simplified version of the options:

Option 1:
Chris Jones (probably around $20m per year)

Option 2:
1st round draft pick (cheap for 4-5 years)
$20m worth of other players

For context on how much other players might cost based on recent free agents we've signed:
Clark - $21m
Mathieu - $14m
Hitchens - $9m
Schwartz - $8m
Okafor - $6m

So...which way do we go?

[FloridaMan88]

This is too hypothetical at this point.

What is the realistic trade value the Chiefs can get for Chris Jones... top 15 first round draft pick? Bottom of the first round draft pick?

Who can the Chiefs realistically afford to keep with Chris Jones’ contract (and big new potential contract) out of the way... Watkins + Fuller + Breeland?

[wachashi]

Originally Posted by tredadda

No more of a gamble than assuming the picks and money spent on FAs will bring back a return equal to or greater than what you already get with Jones. He could turn out to be the next Eric Berry or Aaron Donald (in terms of living up to his contract) but I think he’s worth the risk.

Greater risk usually comes with the possibility of a greater reward, and that's what makes this decision tough. But I don't think it's even an argument as to which option is riskier for the Chiefs. Jones is awesome, but he's just one player. You're betting on him to stay healthy and keep producing at his current level, and that is far from guaranteed.

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by JimNasium

A Jones in the hand is worth two in the bush?

QFT

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

This is too hypothetical at this point.

What is the realistic trade value the Chiefs can get for Chris Jones... top 15 first round draft pick? Bottom of the first round draft pick?

Who can the Chiefs realistically afford to keep with Chris Jones’ contract (and big new potential contract) out of the way... Watkins + Fuller + Breeland?

Taylor seemed to feel like it would be a low 1st + mid-rounder or a mid-1st. But even he's kind of connecting the dots rather than saying an offer is on the table.

[Skyy God]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

We talk a lot about drafting and developing our own talent, but when we actually draft and develop our own talent (a legit, top tier talent at one of the most important positions, no less) you want to send them packing at their first big contract?

What a bunch of morans.

Houston missed an average of 6 games per year after his big money deal and averaged 9 sacks.

And let's now talk about Berry.

Paying big money second contracts is far from a no brainer.

[RealSNR]

If the Chiefs got a 2008 Jared Allen haul for Jones, you'd all take it. Yeah, the 2008 team was rebuilding and needed multiple picks more than they needed Jared Allen, but it's basically the same principal here. Every man has his price.

We got a 1st and two 3rds out of Jared Allen (17th, 73rd, and 82nd overall). There isn't a reasonable draft partner who has two 3rd round picks in this year's draft, but we'd probably be able to get equivalent value if we traded with a team drafting in the top half of the 1st round and they threw in a 4th or a 5th somewhere down the line.

For example, the Cardinals have plenty of cap room but don't have any playmakers on their interior defensive line. They need a WR, but this is one of those stupid deep drafts at that position. So they part with 9th overall and throw in a 2021 pick of some sort.

Chiefs now have:

1.9
1.32
2.63
3.96
4.something
5.something

Now think of the trade down options they could maneuver around with both of those 1st rounders.

Yeah, that means we no longer have Chris Jones. But in exchange, we gain a lot more flexibility to plug holes in the roster with a free agent or two in future seasons. We could also see drastic improvements at LB and/or OL, get a young cheap starter at CB, and still be able to find some more weapons for Pat on offense at WR, TE, and/or RB.

It's boring. It's not sexy. But it virtually guarantees we'll be contending for the Super Bowl for at least the next 3-4 years without having to rely on luck when it comes to injuries so much.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

If the Chiefs got a 2008 Jared Allen haul for Jones, you'd all take it. Yeah, the 2008 team was rebuilding and needed multiple picks more than they needed Jared Allen, but it's basically the same principal here. Every man has his price.

We got a 1st and two 3rds out of Jared Allen (17th, 73rd, and 82nd overall). There isn't a reasonable draft partner who has two 3rd round picks in this year's draft, but we'd probably be able to get equivalent value if we traded with a team drafting in the top half of the 1st round and they threw in a 4th or a 5th somewhere down the line.

For example, the Cardinals have plenty of cap room but don't have any playmakers on their interior defensive line. They need a WR, but this is one of those stupid deep drafts at that position. So they part with 9th overall and throw in a 2021 pick of some sort.

Chiefs now have:

1.9
1.32
2.63
3.96
4.something
5.something

Now think of the trade down options they could maneuver around with both of those 1st rounders.

Yeah, that means we no longer have Chris Jones. But in exchange, we gain a lot more flexibility to plug holes in the roster with a free agent or two in future seasons. We could also see drastic improvements at LB and/or OL, get a young cheap starter at CB, and still be able to find some more weapons for Pat on offense at WR, TE, and/or RB.

It's boring. It's not sexy. But it virtually guarantees we'll be contending for the Super Bowl for at least the next 3-4 years without having to rely on luck when it comes to injuries so much.

If the Cards offer up the 9th overall pick.....then sure. But I don’t see any team doing that. I think we might be able to pull a 1st rounder from the Dolphins but I’m not sure they’d give up the middle one.

[Hoover]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

It's boring. It's not sexy. But it virtually guarantees we'll be contending for the Super Bowl for at least the next 3-4 years without having to rely on luck when it comes to injuries so much.

That is the key point. The focus is no longer how can we win a Super Bowl, its not how do we keep putting this team in position to win championships. Jones is a great player, but the last thing you want to do if you're the Chiefs is essentially lock in your roster for the next four years. You must remain flexible.

I know its apples and oranges, but look at what the Red Sox just did. They traded way Mookie Betts, a generational player so they could get Reid of a stupid huge contract. In the short term it hurt, in the long term it allows them the flexibility to compete.

Look at the Bears, the feel good story of 2018, everything was great when they got Mack, but now their team is a mess, and they want to trade him and let another top ten defensive pick walk.

This has never been about making it all work under the cap next season, its about what's best for the Chiefs moving forward long term.

[RustShack]

Jones will be back /end thread

[Chieftain]

Letting go of Jones is a mistake. Veach will find a way to sign him without messing up the cap. He was a huge part of our defense's success this year. There is just no way to replace him.

[The Franchise]

Picks 1-15 and another pick? Deal.
Picks 16-32 and another pick? I’m interested but I’d have to see.
2nd rounder and lower? Get ****ed.

This obviously entails us not trading him to the Raiders, Broncos, Chargers or Patriots. I would prefer an NFC team or a bottom tier team like the Dolphins.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Picks 1-15 and another pick? Deal.
Picks 16-32 and another pick? I’m interested but I’d have to see.
2nd rounder and lower? Get ****ed.

This obviously entails us not trading him to the Raiders, Broncos, Chargers or Patriots. I would prefer an NFC team or a bottom tier team like the Dolphins.

I’d trade him to the Patriots, Ravens, or Texans, but they have to pay a major premium. Multiple first round picks and probably a mid round pick or two. None of them would/can do that though.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Picks 1-15 and another pick? Deal.
Picks 16-32 and another pick? I’m interested but I’d have to see.
2nd rounder and lower? Get ****ed.

This obviously entails us not trading him to the Raiders, Broncos, Chargers or Patriots. I would prefer an NFC team or a bottom tier team like the Dolphins.

Agreed. Any team that says, "Well, we have this nice 2nd round pick, and we could also offer...." deserves to have its entire locker room infected with CoronaAIDS

[ForeverIowan]

I'd like to see them restructure and keep Sammy Watkins. Keep that young core on offense together for as long as possible. Teams know to beat the Chiefs you need at a minimum 30 (unless Mahomes is playing on one leg). That's tough.

1.) Restructure Sammy
2.) Tag and trade Jones for a first and a third.
3.) Draft Kenneth Murray (Dolphins #23 pick via Jones trade).
4.) Draft JK Dobbins (Chiefs #32 pick).
5.) $20 million saved in cap space from Jones trade and the rest of your draft picks address interior Oline and defense.

[kysirsoze]

Originally Posted by O.city

They had the GOAT QB on a cheap deal. That's not likely to repeat here.

They had Mahomes on a cheap deal?