Checking in on the Young Guns: The QB's

[Chris Meck]

The discussion on Josh Allen got me thinking about the young QB's in the league and what everyone thinks about 1)where they are and 2)what they'll be.

For discussion's sake, lets say 2016 draft on. If we included the 2015 draft, we'd be including like Jameis Winston, and I just kind of feel like that's the cut-off at which I consider that age to be veteran now and not still developing in any way.

So we're talking about these guys:

2016-
Jared Goff-I think he's a system guy. Nice measurables, not a gutsy leader-type. You can win with that guy, but you won't win BECAUSE of that guy.

Carson Wentz-pretty much the same as Goff.

Dak Prescott-a very poor man's Russell Wilson. You can win WITH him, but not BECAUSE of him. I think he's overrated.

2017-

Trubisky-what a sham. 'Most NFL ready'. My ass. He's mentally soft. BUST.
Mahomes-a generational talent, what a steal.
Watson-One of those guys that's better than his physical talent says he should be. Gusty, tough, a winner. I thought he'd bust, but I think I was wrong.

2018-

Mayfield-regressed this year but the whole coaching staff is shite. I still expect Baker to bounce back.

Jackson-man, another one I was wrong on. I still don't think it's sustainable long term, but until his knees give out, he's damned dangerous.

Josh Allen-I know a lot of y'all think he's a bum; I see inconsistency due to some iffy fundamentals, i.e. footwork, etc. I think he's got as much raw ability as anyone. We'll see.

Josh Rosen-two teams gave up on him. I think he's a bust. I think Andy could salvage him if he wants to come sit behind Patrick.

Sam Darnold-This is my 'Josh Allen' in that I don't see a single ****ing thing about Darnold that says 'NFL QB'. I think he's a bum, and a big old bust.

2019-
Kyler Murray-man, maybe? I don't know. The interviews pre-draft were so bad I really couldn't see him as a leader of men. Nice athlete. I think he'll tease for a couple of years, but I don't see a star in the NFL there.

Gardner Minshew-You know, I have a soft spot for the scrappy guys that nobody wanted. He appears to be game-smart, pretty accurate, and the kind of guy people rally around. We'll see, but I think he's a serviceable NFL QB there and JAX hasn't really had that in...well...ever.

What do you guys think? Am I missing anyone?

[xbarretx]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

best thing that could happen to Rosen:

Dolphins cut him, Chiefs pick him up. He sits behind Mahomes a season, lights up two preseasons, and we flip him for a #2.

i'd buy THAT for a dollar.

[notorious]

Wentz is better than Goff, but Wentz is a piece of china.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Gorropollo is like 28. Brissett is 27. Does he count as a young gun?

I think 28 is fine, borderline.... the young guns category would be like 5 or fewer years experience, not so much 'age'.

Found this from Sept '19 - they had 20 starting QBs at this time under the age of 27. The list does not account for Lock or any others that have been starting since the time of writing. That's quite a youth movement - with most 25 or under and some (Luke Faulk) that you may never hear from again. Hell, Winston is only 25 and Bridgewater is 26 (2 years younger than Jimmy G).

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/n...been-brighter/

[O.city]

The ones who are playing really well and look great are in stable franchise with really good head coaches.


Weird how that works.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by oldman

I just don't know what Jones sees in Prescott. They guy looks good a couple games a year, mediocre for a few, and flat out trash when it counts.
Other takes - Future HOF, Mahomes. Pretty good, Watson and Wentz. Too bad he blew out a knee in his 3rd year, Jackson.

We are spoiled.

Dak is still a better qb than most teams have. He's in the Jared Goff safe zone where you know you could do a LOT worse even if you know he's got a low ceiling. So trying to get better is a gamble. It's purgatory which is better than hell.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

best thing that could happen to Rosen:

Dolphins cut him, Chiefs pick him up. He sits behind Mahomes a season, lights up two preseasons, and we flip him for a #2.

I'm not so sure about that. He sounds like an annoying asshole. And not even in a baker mayfield way that his teammates can feed off of. Seems like he annoys his teammates and his coaches hate working with him. Give me a humble great teammate like Matt Moore any day of the week.

It was a totally meaningless snap, but did anybody not love Moore running onto the field like a little kid to take the final snap to celebrate his starter winning the game?

[-King-]

I think Kyler will be great too. He's put up great numbers (for a young QB) on what was the worst team in the league last year. It's too bad Fitzgerald's career is coming to an end soon.

[jjchieffan]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

We are spoiled.

Dak is still a better qb than most teams have. He's in the Jared Goff safe zone where you know you could do a LOT worse even if you know he's got a low ceiling. So trying to get better is a gamble. It's purgatory which is better than hell.

I suppose. But he's due for a new contract and wants big money. He already turned down $30 million per year. I don't know that he's good enough to commit that much of your cap to. If I was Jones, I would draft a QB in the first 3 rounds, bring in a Chad Henne or similar vet and tell Dak that he can take what was offered or his agent can seek a trade. I hope that he doesn't though. I would love to see Jones lock up 5 more years of mediocrity with Dak.

[B_Ambuehl]

I'm noticing a trend where guys have to be able to extend plays. Is there a "pocket" QB having a good year other than Brees?

Josh Allen is inaccurate and slow to process but damn he's big and athletic and when they spread the field and go 2 minute drill he's lethal with Beasley in the slot & his ability to scramble. Would like to see more of that. I think a variation of the ol' K-gun would be perfect for him.

Darnold? I'm afraid he's ruined. He had a bad Oline at USC and already 2 years of bad lines in the NFL.

Mayfield: I don't think it's so much Freddie Kitchens as it is teams have figured out that he hangs onto the ball and doesn't go thru progressions. He wants to play like Russell Wilson but isn't athletic enough to do so. Nor is he near as quick in the pocket as Brees & that leads to tons of batted balls. He has over 20 batted passes this season. He does have pretty good accuracy down the field but I don't think he has the athleticism to be much more than a .500 QB.

Rosen: is both immobile & inaccurate. I went and watched every one of his throws from the last 2 seasons, way too many misses on routine throws.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by B_Ambuehl

I'm noticing a trend where guys have to be able to extend plays. Is there a "pocket" QB having a good year other than Brees?

Josh Allen is inaccurate and slow to process but damn he's big and athletic and when they spread the field and go 2 minute drill he's lethal with Beasley in the slot & his ability to scramble. Would like to see more of that. I think a variation of the ol' K-gun would be perfect for him.

Darnold? I'm afraid he's ruined. He had a bad Oline at USC and already 2 years of bad lines in the NFL.

Mayfield: I don't think it's so much Freddie Kitchens as it is teams have figured out that he hangs onto the ball and doesn't go thru progressions. He wants to play like Russell Wilson but isn't athletic enough to do so. Nor is he near as quick in the pocket as Brees & that leads to tons of batted balls. He has over 20 batted passes this season. He does have pretty good accuracy down the field but I don't think he has the athleticism to be much more than a .500 QB.

My theory is that mahomes broke the NFL. Defenses went all in to figure out how to stop him with speed. Offenses this year have counterpunched by playing with power. Id bet defenses this offseason take a more balanced approach. Wonder if that means better pocket qbs next year, running QBs less effective.

[Chris Meck]

I have a theory that at any point in time there are 5 guys that can play NFL QB at an elite level. Just 5. Some guys are on and off that list season to season, and some guys hit it and stay there for most of their career. These are the guys that you can win a SB in any given season with. These are your Aaron Rodgers/Drew Brees/Tom Brady/Peyton Manning types. Mahomes is that guy, and the only one of the young guns that I think is offically in that club.

Then there's the second tier which is like the next 10 guys in which you need some real help; a killer defense, and a little luck but you can get it done, just probably not year in and year out.

Then there's everyone else, and if you've got a bottom 17 guy you're wasting your time.

Since Len Dawson, we've had bottom half guys with 3 exceptions: Montana, Green, and Smith (all of whom were second tier guys). Montana by that time still had a little magic left, but he was a shadow of his SB winning self. Green and Smith were decent, above average, but not special. It would've taken some luck and some stellar defensive play for them to win it all.

That's kind of the lens I look at QB's through-are they a top 5 guy or a potential top 5 guy? Are they a second tier guy that's GOOD but not GREAT and will need help? or are they in that bottom half in which you're spinning your wheels.

I don't think you're going to win any 'bowls with Dak.

I liked him as a mid-round pick.

Danny Dimes...well...I mean he LOOKS like an NFL QB. What does he do well? Shrug. I don't know. I haven't seen enough to say for sure, but he just seems so...unassuming. Who knows. I just haven't seen FIRE from the kid yet, but that's maybe not fair.

Wentz I'm meh on; and a fair amount of that is availability.

Winston's entertaining, I'll give him that. I wouldn't want to have him as my QB if I was serious about trying to contend. He's a young Fitzpatrick.

Jimmy G I think is pretty good, but just pretty good. He's a solid second tier guy.

Watson has that thing where he makes people better around him. He's better than he should be judging him by his physical attributes. So is Drew Brees. Now he ain't Brees, but who knows what the future will hold? I'd say he's the best bet to join Mahomes in that longterm elite 5 group.

[O.city]

Yeah, I think Watson is a tick behind Mahomes obviously, but he's right there. He's really good.

Wentz is physically on that level, but he just gets hurt a lot.

It's hard to really judge these guys because so much is about the situation they go into. If you put Mahomes on this years say, Jets team, or this years Cowboys team, it's just not gonna be the same. That's not a shot at Mahomes, but he's got Andy and a great surrounding cast and system.

That shit matters.

[Mile High Mania]

So, let's say the following teams advance..

Ravens, Patriots, Chiefs, Texans, Bills and Titans.
49ers, Packers, Saints, Eagles, Seahawks and Vikings.

You have a handful of elite guys there - statistically this year, I would say that Jackson, Mahommes, Rodgers, Brees, Wilson and Jimmy G are the tops of this group right now.

There's not too much (statistically speaking) separating the bunch, you have a couple of guys blowing it out, but the rest aren't that far behind.

Tannehill, Wentz, Allen, Watson and Brady ... maybe even Cousins are not quite the locks at the position as the others this season.

I think the bolded teams are the best suited to make a run to the title game.

[ChiefBlueCFC]

I think Wentz is a lot better than you are giving him credit and I think he is miles better than Goff. He just needs to figure out how to protect the ball because 15 fumbles is un-freaking-real. But, if that is who he is, then yea.. you can have all the better talent but turning the ball over, or putting it on the ground, at that frequency is less than ideal.

[chiefzilla1501]

I guess I'm just not buying into the Watson hype. He's like a much better version of Daunte Culpepper. More athletic,smarter, more competitive. But as a passer I'm not sure what that guy is without DeAndre. He's been jekyll and Hyde. A lot of games where he flat out does not look good. He's a good qb and Houston should be happy to have him. But no way do I put him even close to mahomes level.