Realistic expectations for Patrick Mahomes

[AssEaterChief]

Originally Posted by Shag

You realize surpassing 5k yards has only been done 9 times in the history of the NFL, right?

I have a bad feeling this thread is going to get bumped next January for all the wrong reasons...

[Shag]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

Realistically?

Assuming he stays healthy, I expect Mahomes to top 5,000 passing yards.

In his first start, playing with scrubs against one of the best pass D's in the NFL, he put up 284 yards. Assuming that is an average game for him, he is already at 4,544 yards for the season. With scrubs. Against a good pass D.

To top 5,000 yards in a 16 game season, he would have to average 312 passing yards per game.

The question you have to ask yourself is whether or not you believe that Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt can contribute another 28 yards per game, on average, against typically lesser defenses.

Another way to think about it: Do you think that Mahomes, with those tools, can average about 26 passing yards per possession over the course of a season? Considering that he (so far) averages 8.11 yards per attempt, I think that over the course of a season, he can hit that mark with relative ease.

You realize that a QB has only gone over 5k yards 9 times in NFL history, and only 5 different QBs have ever done it, right? That would be a monumental achievement for any QB, much less a first time starter.

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by Shag

You realize that a QB has only gone over 5k yards 9 times in NFL history, and only 5 different QBs have ever done it, right? That would be a monumental achievement for any QB, much less a first time starter.

and PM2 will surpass 5k multiple times in his career where 4K will be underperforming for him

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by Shag

You realize that a QB has only gone over 5k yards 9 times in NFL history, and only 5 different QBs have ever done it, right? That would be a monumental achievement for any QB, much less a first time starter.

Marino did it in 84

[WhiteWhale]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Marino did it in 84

I think if Marino played in today's NFL he'd have 5000 yards every season he played.

[Shag]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Marino did it in 84

I'm not saying it's impossible, just extraordinarily unlikely. And definitely not "realistic" to expect 5k yards, which has never been done in a QBs first year as a starter.

Marino had 11 games of experience in the '83 season, so it also wasn't his first year starting.

[WhiteWhale]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

Realistically?

Assuming he stays healthy, I expect Mahomes to top 5,000 passing yards.

In his first start, playing with scrubs against one of the best pass D's in the NFL, he put up 284 yards. Assuming that is an average game for him, he is already at 4,544 yards for the season. With scrubs. Against a good pass D.

To top 5,000 yards in a 16 game season, he would have to average 312 passing yards per game.

The question you have to ask yourself is whether or not you believe that Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt can contribute another 28 yards per game, on average, against typically lesser defenses.

Another way to think about it: Do you think that Mahomes, with those tools, can average about 26 passing yards per possession over the course of a season? Considering that he (so far) averages 8.11 yards per attempt, I think that over the course of a season, he can hit that mark with relative ease.

Sorry man, you can't say 'realistically' and then spend an entire post justifying a simple formula.

All you did was take a guy's first start and averaged it out over 16 games.

I'm not going average out a totally meaningless week 17 game against a 5-11 team that had given up and taken MOST of their defensive starters out by the start of the 3rd quarter over 16 games and then say 'realistic'.

Mahomes showed a lot, but c'mon. That's not a realistic way to think of anything. Even if you're right that's a terrible way to get to the conclusion.

[jjchieffan]

Originally Posted by WhiteWhale

Sorry man, you can't say 'realistically' and then spend an entire post justifying a simple formula.

All you did was take a guy's first start and averaged it out over 16 games.

I'm not going average out a totally meaningless week 17 game against a 5-11 team that had given up and taken MOST of their defensive starters out by the start of the 3rd quarter over 16 games and then say 'realistic'.

Mahomes showed a lot, but c'mon. That's not a realistic way to think of anything. Even if you're right that's a terrible way to get to the conclusion.

KnowShit? Is that you? Because this post sounds like the bullshit excuses he's been giving for why the Chiefs won in week 17. Don't forget. He had VonDouchebag coming after him on a lot of plays. There were more defensive starters for the Donks on the field the entire game than offensive first stringers on the field for Mahomes. He had to make due behind a backup offensive line, without having Kelce or Hill on the field to throw to and the running back to keep the defense honest was Sherman. Yet he still managed 284 yards and had the game in hand until Bray tried to give the game away. He then came back in, with VonDouchebag rushing him, and put the game away. That was pretty impressive.

[WhiteWhale]

Originally Posted by jjchieffan

KnowShit? Is that you? Because this post sounds like the bullshit excuses he's been giving for why the Chiefs won in week 17. Don't forget. He had VonDouchebag coming after him on a lot of plays. There were more defensive starters for the Donks on the field the entire game than offensive first stringers on the field for Mahomes. He had to make due behind a backup offensive line, without having Kelce or Hill on the field to throw to and the running back to keep the defense honest was Sherman. Yet he still managed 284 yards and had the game in hand until Bray tried to give the game away. He then came back in, with VonDouchebag rushing him, and put the game away. That was pretty impressive.

You ****ing idiot, it's a fact that the LB's played almost every snap of that game but the DL and DB's didn't. That's reality. It has nothing to do with 'knowmo' or bronco fans. Jesus. Look up the snap counts and stop being offended by reality. Nobody is saying Mahomes was shit or that nothing he did mattered. I'm saying you can't just say "Well, now that he's had one start in week 17 against a 5-10 team that sat most of it's defensive starters in a meaningless game we can average that production out across his whole career!"

It's reeruned to average out 1 game against a 5-10 team playing a bunch of back ups in week 17. Do you disagree, or are you just being an asshole?

The fact that it was mostly Mahomes and back ups vs. Bronco back up DB's and DL only reinforces the point I"m making. The dynamics will be entirely different.

Christ this board is going full homer if I'm being called out for saying it probably isn't realistic to average a rookie's first start across an entire season (and adding selected stats on a whim). Will he also throw 0 TD's and 16 INT's? C'mon. I'm 100% on the kid's wagon, but I"m not going to predict a 5K 50 TD season. Sorry for being 'pessimistic'.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by WhiteWhale

Sorry man, you can't say 'realistically' and then spend an entire post justifying a simple formula.

All you did was take a guy's first start and averaged it out over 16 games.

I'm not going average out a totally meaningless week 17 game against a 5-11 team that had given up and taken MOST of their defensive starters out by the start of the 3rd quarter over 16 games and then say 'realistic'.

Mahomes showed a lot, but c'mon. That's not a realistic way to think of anything. Even if you're right that's a terrible way to get to the conclusion.

You don't think Mahomes will put up an average of 59 more passing yards per game than Alex Smith?

Watkins averages 15.9 yds/catch
Hill averages 15.8
Kelce averages 12.7
Hunt averages 8.7

The Chiefs brass traded away Smith because they thought they could get more output from Mahomes; they doubled down on that bet by giving Watkins a big contract.

Its not just Mahomes; it is the weapons he has at his disposal. I think the Chiefs probably have the best set of offensive skill position players in the NFL.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

You don't think Mahomes will put up an average of 59 more passing yards per game than Alex Smith?

Watkins averages 15.9 yds/catch
Hill averages 15.8
Kelce averages 12.7
Hunt averages 8.7

The Chiefs brass traded away Smith because they thought they could get more output from Mahomes; they doubled down on that bet by giving Watkins a big contract.

Its not just Mahomes; it is the weapons he has at his disposal. I think the Chiefs probably have the best set of offensive skill position players in the NFL.

Considering that across the NFL, teams have an average of 11.5 possessions per game, you're telling me that it is unrealistic to think that Mahomes will average 5 passing yards more per possession than Alex Smith?

I was (am) a big fan of Alex Smith, but the big difference between Mahomes and Smith is that Mahomes throws the ball *downfield*; he isn't looking for the dump-off, he is looking for the first down and more each and every time.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

Considering that across the NFL, teams have an average of 11.5 possessions per game, you're telling me that it is unrealistic to think that Mahomes will average 5 passing yards more per possession than Alex Smith?



I was (am) a big fan of Alex Smith, but the big difference between Mahomes and Smith is that Mahomes throws the ball *downfield*; he isn't looking for the dump-off, he is looking for the first down and more each and every time.

That sounds like a small number, but if you factor in the likely increase in turnovers, those 5 yards per possession become much larger and difficult to attain.

Everybody says he's Brett Favre. Well, for a good chunk of Favre's career, he had many seasons where he didn't crack 4000. And factor in the consecutive games started- the guy never got hurt.

The 90s were a different era of football, which is why it's not at all a stretch to confidently predict 4000 for Mahomes in his first year. But that's as far as I'll go. Gunslinger does not always mean 5000 yards

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by WhiteWhale

Sorry man, you can't say 'realistically' and then spend an entire post justifying a simple formula.

All you did was take a guy's first start and averaged it out over 16 games.

I'm not going average out a totally meaningless week 17 game against a 5-11 team that had given up and taken MOST of their defensive starters out by the start of the 3rd quarter over 16 games and then say 'realistic'.

Mahomes showed a lot, but c'mon. That's not a realistic way to think of anything. Even if you're right that's a terrible way to get to the conclusion.

I agree it's not realistic, but Pat didn't play the full game either. He could have gone well over 300 yards if they kept him in there instead of putting Bray in. That's also without Kelce/Hill in the receiver group.

That said, I am just hoping he can play smart and avoid injuries. He played pretty much his entire college career with some form of injury. Bad knee injury early in 2015 caused him to limp his way through the last 9 games of the season. Bad throwing shoulder injury early in 2016 made him a different guy for the rest of that season as well. Concussion in 2014. Broken wrist in 2016. And so on.

He plays the game very hard. Takes some big hits that he needs to avoid. I just want to see smart decisions and good health from him in his first season at the NFL level. If he can learn to protect himself, I believe the sky will be the limit during his career.

[RealSNR]

I didn't realize this, but Derek Carr has never topped 4000 yards in a season.

It will be even more impressive when Mahomes does crack that number.