NFL Excuses Run Out After Ratings Declines Continue

[Eleazar]

NFL's Litany of Excuses Runs Out After Ratings Fall for Second Year

By Lucas Shaw
Bloomberg.com
November 2, 2017, 11:30 AM CDT



TV networks are running out of excuses for the dwindling popularity of the National Football League.

They blamed the election for ratings declines last year, and hurricanes for a soft week one in September. Protests during the national anthem, and President Donald Trump’s criticism of the league, have faded from the headlines.

Advertisers are starting to believe a different explanation: the viewers aren’t coming back. Audiences are down an average 7 percent from a year ago through the first eight weeks of the season, excluding last Monday. That’s on top of a decrease of about 8 percent last season that spurred numerous changes in the broadcasts, from shorter commercials to better matchups earlier in the year.

“There’s just not as many people watching TV the way they used to watch TV,” said Jeremy Carey, managing director of Optimum Sports, a sports marketing agency. “It’s going to be an issue for advertisers when they can’t reach a large-scale audience the way they have.”

With CBS Corp., 21st Century Fox Inc. and Walt Disney Co. set to report earnings in the next few days, analysts are bound to raise questions. These companies have used the popularity of the games to extract additional fees from cable operators, promote other shows on their networks and sell lots of commercials. Pro football games drew about $3.5 billion in ad spending last year, including the postseason, according to SMI Media Inc.

Media companies have spent billions of dollars on the right to air football games, which had been immune to the erosion of viewership for other TV programming. Audiences for TV networks have diminished for years as the growing popularity of online alternatives Netflix and YouTube and the availability of most shows on-demand have reduced the appeal of dramas and comedies. Live TV, like sports, was supposed to be immune, but that theory looks highly questionable now.

Ratings for the NFL suggest the same societal trends are now affecting the league, even if the declines aren’t as dramatic. The drop in game viewership ranges from 5 percent for NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” to 11 percent for the CBS Sunday package. “Monday Night Football,” on Disney’s ESPN, has attracted more fans this year than a year ago, but the numbers are still down from 2015.

Viewership of the four main broadcast networks fell 8.7 percent last year, and 12 percent among adults 18 to 49, an important demographic for advertisers.

CBS’s 11 percent slump for NFL games is the steepest of the networks. Its parent company, which reports earnings after the close Thursday, is more vulnerable than rivals to the trend because the vast majority of its earnings come from the broadcast network. The declines at CBS reinforce a complaint that has gotten louder and louder in recent weeks: The league got greedy in adding the Thursday night game on broadcast.

Reserving top games for Thursday night robbed other time periods of good match-ups. After a nosedive in ratings at “Monday Night Football” last season, the league has scheduled better games for that time period, further damaging Sunday afternoon.

“Ratings declines on both general entertainment and NFL programming could be the single biggest point of focus for investors this quarter, and we’re not sure what media companies can say about the health and tone of the ad market to assuage fears,” Steven Cahall, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note last month.

Viewership is dropping fast among people under 54 -- a key demographic for advertisers -- and even faster among those 18 to 34. Audiences for games on CBS, NBC and Fox have slid at least 10 percent among that younger cohort.

Advertisers aren’t abandoning the NFL, one of the only places they can still reach more than 10 million people at once. But they are growing concerned. John Schnatter, who appears in TV spots on behalf of his Papa John’s Pizza International Inc., laid into the league on a conference call this week, blaming the ratings for his company’s slow revenue growth and calling for the league to put an end to player protests.

Networks and other advertisers identify a wide range of reasons for the NFL’s struggles. The league has overexposed itself by making highlights available on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Snapchat. Identifiable stars like Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers have either retired or gotten hurt. The quality of play has deteriorated. Player protests and concussions have driven away some fans.

Some executives argue viewership of the league has still improved over the long term while dropping for every other show. Yet the amount of time people have spent watching football this season is at the lowest point since 2011, back when there were fewer televised games, according to Mike Mulvihill, Fox Sports’ head of research.

“The cumulative effect of everything happening in the world at large is having an impact on NFL viewership,” Mulvihill said. “ The league was defying the laws of gravity.”

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by Stinky Nuts McGee

Ah, thanks for the clarification. I could have sworn that George was grumbling about the policy at one time, but it's been a few years so I either misunderstood or am not remembering correctly, neither of which would come as a surprise to me.

Yes, a few years ago, I believe you had to commit to paying for all potential home games, they charged you right away. Unplayed games were credited to your next year's account, or you could ask for a refund.

Even STH don't always pay attention to how they are billed. Most will still tell you that they are charged the same for a preseason game as a regular season game, and it hasn't been that way for two years.

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

Yeah, the cost of everything is going up.

Look at how expensive it is to eat out or take your family to the movies these days as opposed to 20-30 years ago.

Can only speak to the Chiefs, but some ticket prices have gone up, and some have gone down. The "better seats" -- Lower Level sideline and low rows of the upper have gone up, some significantly. But huge parts of the upper level are lower or about the same as they were even 10 years ago. They're obviously having trouble selling those.

[Eleazar]

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

Can only speak to the Chiefs, but some ticket prices have gone up, and some have gone down. The "better seats" -- Lower Level sideline and low rows of the upper have gone up, some significantly. But huge parts of the upper level are lower or about the same as they were even 10 years ago. They're obviously having trouble selling those.

You can see on TV week in and week out that the upper half of the upper level has a lot of empty seats. Whether those are sold or not, who knows.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Empty seats can be caused by a number of reasons, not limited to weather, opposing team, etc.

I'm unable to watch the NFL games of my choosing for "free", which is why I've had Direct TV and the NFL Sunday Ticket since 2003.

Viewership isn't down. Ratings are skewed by mobile devices and streaming.

No, viewership is down.

There are more reasons than "muh flag" and "muh protest" which the NFL doesn't want to admit to:

1) You have the price of tickets/parking/concessions.
2) You have the state of your franchise PLUS no 1.
3) You have the state of politics, plus no 1, plus no 2.
4) You have the weather getting worse (for 3/4ths of the NFL) plus no 1-3.
5) You have the expansion of media on Sunday Ticket/Streaming/Casting plus 1 through 4.

All reasons people might not go to games. Most are also good reasons not to watch them live on TV...

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by Rausch

No, viewership is down.

There are more reasons than "muh flag" and "muh protest" which the NFL doesn't want to admit to:

1) You have the price of tickets/parking/concessions.
2) You have the state of your franchise PLUS no 1.
3) You have the state of politics, plus no 1, plus no 2.
4) You have the weather getting worse (for 3/4ths of the NFL) plus no 1-3.
5) You have the expansion of media on Sunday Ticket/Streaming/Casting plus 1 through 4.

All reasons people might not go to games. Most are also good reasons not to watch them live on TV...

Sure, lots of people aren't watching on TV due to the price of tickets/parking/concessions.
wut

[Setsuna]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I bet it's all staged. If you look into the upper stands it'll be full of inflatable sex dolls or something.

You are ignorant.

[ForeverChiefs58]

Metlife Stadium a ghost town roughly 15 minutes before kickoff. #KCvsNYG

[ForeverChiefs58]

Dolphins really packing them in

[ForeverChiefs58]

Jags in playoff race vs Browns

[ForeverChiefs58]

It was reported last week that the two new Los Angeles franchises had recorded dismal figures for their opening home games, with the LA Chargers unable to even sell out the 25,000-seat StubHub Center.

On Thursday, the San Francisco 49ers officially claimed an attendance of 70,000 for their game with the Chargers, despite TV viewers clearly being able to see that the stadium was largely empty.

Some of the best seats in the lower bowl at Levi’s Stadium were left untaken, while tickets were available on secondary markets for as little as $14.

The New York Post has also reported dismal ticket sales at the New York Jets, whose poor results have not helped in attracting crowds.

The newspaper reports that corner endzone seats for the game against the Miami Dolphins, with a face value of $173, were going for 55 per cent less at $78, according to SeatGeek. Tickets at the 50-yard-line valued at $75 have dipped 24 per cent to $42

The New York Post also reported that not a single Jets player is ranked in the Top 50 in player products — ranging from jerseys to hats – as fans refuse to back the team with merchandise buys.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Eleazar

You can see on TV week in and week out that the upper half of the upper level has a lot of empty seats. Whether those are sold or not, who knows.

They are sold. The other team gets a cut of ticket sales. Players association is involved. TV and the local city. It would take a vast conspiracy to pull that off and even then we would know about it because someone would leak it thats getting stiffed.

Its all about TV not attendance since the 70's anyway.

[ForeverChiefs58]

Broncos vs Dolphins

[ForeverChiefs58]

Originally Posted by Over Yonder

I am not going to go all D.C. here

[ForeverChiefs58]

[ThaVirus]

You just posted a bunch of shit teams in games played during a pretty harsh winter