How did Skyy Moore fall to us?

[Direckshun]

Largely size concerns, it seems:

The 2022 NFL Draft was another strong year for wide receiver talent, and many assumed that a run on wide receivers would happen in the first round. That panned out with the Falcons taking Drake London at No. 8 and three other receivers were taken over the next four picks. The levee breaking on wideouts led to Jahan Dotson ending up as the 16th pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, and some analysts thought Western Michigan's Skyy Moore would go late in the first round thanks to the run on receivers.

Moore was superb throughout 2021, hauling in 95 passes for 1,292 yards and 10 touchdowns. The junior also worked out well before the 2022 NFL Draft. Hence, there were some projecting him to the opening night of the draft, so some were surprised when he slid to late in the second round.

NFL team sources actually had Moore graded lower than the media hype. Some teams had him graded in the second round and others had him in Round 3. They saw some limitations with his size and thought Moore (5-10, 196) could have problems with longer cornerbacks as a pro. Thus, teams did not see a real slide with Moore.

The Kansas City Chiefs ended Moore's slide, and they are a mixed landing spot for him. On the plus side, Moore landed with an elite quarterback in Pat Mahomes and a great coaching staff led by future Hall of Fame Andy Reid. On the negative side, Moore is in a crowded depth chart, as the Chiefs have established veterans like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman and Josh Gordon. Due to the a second-round pick investment in him, Moore is assured of making the roster, but he could have a hard time breaking out in an offense that spreads the ball around and features tight end Travis Kelce. Moore will have to earn his playing time, but if he can break through to a starting job, he could turn into a very productive pro operating with Mahomes and Reid.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Except that Skyy couldn't get OU's attention. Or any other Power 5 school's. So there are real questions about how some of his film really translates. That's what I think keeps getting overlooked. Of COURSE he's going to look dynamic against teams in the Sun Belt. It's gonna look a lot easier piling on yards against Buffalo than it did when he went 2/22 against Michigan.

Meanwhile Pickens went to a team easily on par w/ Oklahoma in the sports top conference and was considered a massive recruit throughout the process.

Granted, that's not dispositive, but it's another data point. There's actually a surprisingly strong relationship between recruiting rankings and future NFL production.

Skyy never played for a team like Georgia, even during the 'free transfer period', because a team like Georgia wasn't interested in him. If he went to OU maybe he's just an undersized 2-star recruit (so maybe a priority walk-on) that simply never saw the field at all. It's every bit as likely as him being a 1st rounder.

I still think competition is the most compelling argument against Moore, if we're making one. All the grading and analytics still struggle to factor it in, and frankly, it's understandable.

I've not seen the relationship between recruitment and NFL production but I could see it. I'd just say that that comes into consideration after college production, for me. 5 star recruit that was uber-productive in college, yep, he's gonna be good. 2 star recruit that was uber-productive in college, well, I'm much more interested in the production. 2 start recruit beating up scrubs...OK, I get it, maybe you're notching down your expectations again.

In any case it'll be interesting to see how this draft class shakes out. We're either lauding the approach of picking up gems from small schools - Moore, Williams, or we're going back to tried and tested powerhouses. Veach has done a bit of both the last couple of drafts.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by staylor26

@ taking anything from Walter Football as gospel

15+ years ago when year-round NFL Draft analysis and resources were far harder to come by, yeah, Walter Football was one such thing you could use if you absolutely needed a fix. But even then, I think people knew what they were getting was pretty much crap.

Today there are any number of dudes just like Walter Football who do a better job, and their mock drafts are way better thought out than "Well, it's a positional need." Hell, half the time Walter is inaccurate about what actual team personnel needs are because he just doesn't pay attention to the NFL in the regular season enough.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by GloucesterChief

Eh big schools miss talent all the time.

'All the time' is quite the stretch.

Typically about 20% of draft picks in a given year are 2 star recruits (or lower). Just looking at last year's SB teams, 7 of the 44 starters were 2 stars or lower, so it largely checks out there as well.

The overwhelming majority of successful NFL players started as high-level recruits.

And again, I already said that recruiting rankings aren't dispositive. But when you're talking large numbers, they very clearly matter. And level of competition matters now more than ever in the free transfer era when kids in the lower levels can make a seamless transfer without needing to sit out a year.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by JPH83

I still think competition is the most compelling argument against Moore, if we're making one. All the grading and analytics still struggle to factor it in, and frankly, it's understandable.

I've not seen the relationship between recruitment and NFL production but I could see it. I'd just say that that comes into consideration after college production, for me. 5 star recruit that was uber-productive in college, yep, he's gonna be good. 2 star recruit that was uber-productive in college, well, I'm much more interested in the production. 2 start recruit beating up scrubs...OK, I get it, maybe you're notching down your expectations again.

In any case it'll be interesting to see how this draft class shakes out. We're either lauding the approach of picking up gems from small schools - Moore, Williams, or we're going back to tried and tested powerhouses. Veach has done a bit of both the last couple of drafts.

I think a mix of approaches is always worthwhile. I just think as fans we need to temper expectations accordingly. Some guys truly are just late bloomers and you don't want to miss those.

But I think transfers are just so easy these days that you'll see fewer and fewer of those. If a guy can't get out of the FCS or get from the MAC into at least a lower level Power 5 school to test himself against higher level opponents, well these days there's a reason for that.

A few years ago it was just that he didn't really figure things out until after college and then after developing through his first 2 years, didn't want to sit out a season to transfer so he played out his JR year and declared. Now that same kid would just move on if the opportunities were there.

When they don't, that says he's either a 1 year wonder (a red flag in its own right) or he simply wasn't in demand from those schools. Oh some nominal level of kids are just homebodies or wanted to stay with the guys they got started with. But the guys who are looking to make the NFL their livelihoods are going to want to get noticed for the most part. And they'll want to move someplace that allows that.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

'All the time' is quite the stretch.

Typically about 20% of draft picks in a given year are 2 star recruits (or lower). Just looking at last year's SB teams, 7 of the 44 starters were 2 stars or lower, so it largely checks out there as well.

The overwhelming majority of successful NFL players started as high-level recruits.

And again, I already said that recruiting rankings aren't dispositive. But when you're talking large numbers, they very clearly matter. And level of competition matters now more than ever in the free transfer era when kids in the lower levels can make a seamless transfer without needing to sit out a year.

This isn’t true. There are so many elite players who were not highly rated high school recruits.

Skyy was a QB who started over as a receiver in college. Those guys hardly ever get recognized. But it’s not about how you start. It’s always how you finish.

Just because you transfer doesn’t mean you’re any better. Gehrig Dieter transferred to Alabama and where is he now?

Meanwhile some kid from Tyler, TX only got an opportunity from Texas Tech bc he thought about baseball first. I think that guy is alright…

[O.city]

Originally Posted by RunKC

This isn’t true. There are so many elite players who were not highly rated high school recruits.

Skyy was a QB who started over as a receiver in college. Those guys hardly ever get recognized. But it’s not about how you start. It’s always how you finish.

Just because you transfer doesn’t mean you’re any better. Gehrig Dieter transferred to Alabama and where is he now?

Meanwhile some kid from Tyler, TX only got an opportunity from Texas Tech bc he thought about baseball first. I think that guy is alright…

Outliers are outliers.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by RunKC

This isn’t true. There are so many elite players who were not highly rated high school recruits.

Skyy was a QB who started over as a receiver in college. Those guys hardly ever get recognized. But it’s not about how you start. It’s always how you finish.

Just because you transfer doesn’t mean you’re any better. Gehrig Dieter transferred to Alabama and where is he now?

Meanwhile some kid from Tyler, TX only got an opportunity from Texas Tech bc he thought about baseball first. I think that guy is alright…

It is true. The numbers are what the numbers are and they're pretty easy to find.

Over large numbers, how you start is absolutely and unquestionably relevant.

20% of the league is still 300 some odd players. Yes, there are Cooper Kupps to be found. But in a league w/ 1700, that's absolutely an outlier. And as I have said repeatedly now, being a low-ranked player out of high school isn't dispositive of anything. But it's something to consider. You can ignore the large numbers if you'd like, but you're doing so at your own peril and doing yourself a disservice in the process.

If Sky Moore breaks out, he'll be an outlier. I don't see any real way to argue to the contrary. Not just as a 2nd round pick or as a guy who wasn't taken in the top 12 of WRs, but as a small school, lowly recruited player who even after transitioning to and succeeding at WR as a true Freshman, never moved on to a larger college.

And I'm not sure how Patrick Mahomes, a 3-star kid who excelled at a Power 5 School, is even remotely relevant here. But hey, good effort I guess.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by O.city

Outliers are outliers.

There’s a lot of outliers then. I mean you can disregard Travis Kelce the best TE in the league. Cooper Kupp the OPTY. Aaron Donald the best defensive player in the league.

The best QB’s are Mahomes, Rodgers and Allen and none of those guys were highly rated coming out of high school.

Seems to me this league is not built on 5 star recruits especially at the top.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by RunKC

There’s a lot of outliers then. I mean you can disregard Travis Kelce the best TE in the league. Cooper Kupp the OPTY. Aaron Donald the best defensive player in the league.

The best QB’s are Mahomes, Rodgers and Allen and none of those guys were highly rated coming out of high school.

Seems to me this league is not built on 5 star recruits especially at the top.

I realize you want Moore to be good, hence here we are doing this whole song and dance.

But outliers are outliers for a reason. Tom Brady was a 5th rounder, Cooper Kupp, etc. They happen. I wouldn't count on them happening.

[staylor26]

Moore, up until this point, IS an “outlier”.

Guys that have only been playing the position for 3 years are rarely as good of route runners as he is with hands as good as his.

His hand size, wingspan, and 10 yard split are outliers statistically.

Never been more confident that people will be eating crow on this one.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by O.city

I realize you want Moore to be good, hence here we are doing this whole song and dance.

But outliers are outliers for a reason. Tom Brady was a 5th rounder, Cooper Kupp, etc. They happen. I wouldn't count on them happening.

I like Skyy but it’s more about the league not being 5 star recruits. So many of its best players were not highly regarded high school recruits.

Jonathan Taylor and TJ Watt, the leaders in rushing yards and sacks, were also not highly ranked recruits.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by RunKC

I like Skyy but it’s more about the league not being 5 star recruits. So many of its best players were not highly regarded high school recruits.

Jonathan Taylor and TJ Watt, the leaders in rushing yards and sacks, were also not highly ranked recruits.

Again, man, stars themselves are outliers. The vast majority of guys aren't going to be stars.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I think a mix of approaches is always worthwhile. I just think as fans we need to temper expectations accordingly. Some guys truly are just late bloomers and you don't want to miss those.

But I think transfers are just so easy these days that you'll see fewer and fewer of those. If a guy can't get out of the FCS or get from the MAC into at least a lower level Power 5 school to test himself against higher level opponents, well these days there's a reason for that.

A few years ago it was just that he didn't really figure things out until after college and then after developing through his first 2 years, didn't want to sit out a season to transfer so he played out his JR year and declared. Now that same kid would just move on if the opportunities were there.

When they don't, that says he's either a 1 year wonder (a red flag in its own right) or he simply wasn't in demand from those schools. Oh some nominal level of kids are just homebodies or wanted to stay with the guys they got started with. But the guys who are looking to make the NFL their livelihoods are going to want to get noticed for the most part. And they'll want to move someplace that allows that.

I wonder how many also just don't want the risk of being stuck down the pecking order. I mean it's happened to some pretty highly regarded players. Obviously that lack of confidence isn't inspiring, but if you're seeing more guys picked up from small schools (and I'm not sure if that's the case) then perhaps the risk of moving is factored in.

The other issue is - wasn't Moore recruited as a QB? That happens a fair bit as well. Guy's a 3 star recruit and then switches position. Surely that impacts how many top teams are likely to be around the portal?

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I think a mix of approaches is always worthwhile. I just think as fans we need to temper expectations accordingly. Some guys truly are just late bloomers and you don't want to miss those.

But I think transfers are just so easy these days that you'll see fewer and fewer of those. If a guy can't get out of the FCS or get from the MAC into at least a lower level Power 5 school to test himself against higher level opponents, well these days there's a reason for that.

A few years ago it was just that he didn't really figure things out until after college and then after developing through his first 2 years, didn't want to sit out a season to transfer so he played out his JR year and declared. Now that same kid would just move on if the opportunities were there.

When they don't, that says he's either a 1 year wonder (a red flag in its own right) or he simply wasn't in demand from those schools. Oh some nominal level of kids are just homebodies or wanted to stay with the guys they got started with. But the guys who are looking to make the NFL their livelihoods are going to want to get noticed for the most part. And they'll want to move someplace that allows that.

Think this is very reasonable, but it's not happening at CP, I've worked that much out.

[KC_Lee]

So we're asking why was the Skyy falling?



I'll see my self out...