*** Official 2018 Royals Offseason Repository ***

[duncan_idaho]

It's the end of the world as we know it... and we feel... fine?

2018 is a season of transition for the Royals, or at least it is at this point. Dayton Moore is back. Will he swing full into THE PROCESS 2.0? Or will he try to load up again and make some reload magic happen?

Pending Free Agents:
1B | Eric Hosmer | San Diego Padres, 8 years, $144 million ($5 million signing bonus; $20 million/year in Yrs 1-5; $13 million/year in Yrs 6-8 wth player opt out)

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Texas Rangers, 6, $118 million)

3B | Mike Moustaskas | Kansas City Royas, 1, $6.5 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Los Angeles Angels, 5, $98 million)

CF | Lorenzo Cain | Milwaukee Brewers, 5 years, $80 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: San Francisco Giants, 4, $68 million)

RP | Mike Minor | Texas Rangers, 3, $28 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Los Angeles Angels, 3, $35 million+ $12 million team option

SP | Jason Vargas | New York Mets, 2, $16 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Baltimore Orioles, 2, $29 million)

SS | Alcides Escobar | Kansas City Royals, 1, $2.5 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: San Diego Padres, 1, $6.5 million)

2018 MLB Draft Picks
#18
#33 - Compensation (Eric Hosmer)
#34 - Compensation (Lorenzo Cain)
#40 (Competitive Balance Round A)

Comp picks explanation:

Spoiler!

In case I, picks would be #32, 33, and 34, if Alex Cobb of Rays signs for $50 million guaranteed.

Kansas City will likely have 5 of the top 40-45 picks in the draft, and the bonus pool money should rival that of the teams drafting 1-3 in the 2017 draft. This should give KC tremendous flexibility in acquiring talent that otherwise might slip or not be "signable."

2018 Draft Names to Watch

RHP Kumar Rocker, N Oconnee HS, Georgia.

Spoiler!

Possibly goes top 10 but is a big, physical SP with ace potential. Moore and co. will be all over him if he slips a bit and could offer top 10 money at No. 16

OF Jarred Kelenic, Waukasha West HS, WI

Spoiler!

Kelenic is the top prep bat, toolsy OF. Royals would be ecstatic to have shot at him.

1B Triston Casas, American Heritage HS (FL).

Spoiler!

Tremendous raw power, best in HS bats. Royals typically like HS arms or HS bats with "special" tools. He qualifies.

RHP Carter Stewart, Eau de Gallie HS (Ga).

Spoiler!

Another big, physical specimen with huge upside. More likely to be available mid-first than Rocker.

ANY Any, Any (Any). Any current top projected pick who slides for injury concerns. Includes current top prospect prospect SP Brady Singer, U of Florida.

[DeepSouth]

Originally Posted by nychief

Trade them mooose.

Or trade them Cuthbert.

[Abba-Dabba]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Sorry, but I’m going to say bullshit to the statement that his decline at this rate was obvious unless you’re talking about things that have happened since he signed the deal.

Decline hadn’t started in 2014 or 2015. They were practically identical seasons, and Gordon was about 20 percent above average offensively both years, with excellent defense.

It was not obvious this cliff was coming at the time of his deal. The market came back a bit on him, and they got him for fewer years and a smaller AAV than anyone forecast at the start of FA. Detractors locally or nationally were few and far between.

It sucks the Royals are strapped with this now, but don’t act like it was a clear, obvious thing.

I disagree. There were clear and obvious signs of his offensive downfall evident for years prior to his contract in 2016. Those signs were overlooked, or just not paid attention to. His value was never in his bat for KC or much of any club IMO. It was his defense, hometown sentiment, and ability to put butts in seats.

Gordon is a career .250ish hitter that has had only one season where he batted over .300. Every year since he batted .300 he has steadily declined in many batting categories, year after year. The year he batted over .300 was in 2011. So yes, it was clear and obvious there was a decline happening in his offensive capabilities with 4 years of decline prior to the contract.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by RubberSponge

I disagree. There were clear and obvious signs of his offensive downfall evident for years prior to his contract in 2016. Those signs were overlooked, or just not paid attention to. His value was never in his bat for KC or much of any club IMO. It was his defense, hometown sentiment, and ability to put butts in seats.

Gordon is a career .250ish hitter that has had only one season where he batted over .300. Every year since he batted .300 he has steadily declined in many batting categories, year after year. The year he batted over .300 was in 2011. So yes, it was clear and obvious there was a decline happening in his offensive capabilities with 4 years of decline prior to the contract.

>>>>> If you're judging Gordo's performance solely on batting average, you're missing the point entirely. He was always our most patient hitter and had one of our best power bats from 2013-2015.

He was our top offensive contributor in 2014 and our best hitter pre-injury in 2015. Revisionist history is strong here.

[OKchiefs]

So, any predictions on who will be traded at the deadline? I would imagine Moustakas is a top candidate. Who else?

Duffy?
Salvy?
Whit?

[Abba-Dabba]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

>>>>> If you're judging Gordo's performance solely on batting average, you're missing the point entirely. He was always our most patient hitter and had one of our best power bats from 2013-2015.

He was our top offensive contributor in 2014 and our best hitter pre-injury in 2015. Revisionist history is strong here.

No. I am not judging him based on his batting avg. alone. What I am saying is the decline at the plate was evident years prior to his contract in 2016. The idea that this is something that just happened recently, or just after his injury is crazy. He had a gradual decline where those batting issues were overlooked because of his defensive ability, hometown sentiment and ability to bring people out to the games because of his popularity.

If you think an avg. of 15-16hrs(even in the K) a year is a power bat and striking out twice as many times as you walk is a patient batter during 2013-2015 then I guess, well... Have fun with that mediocrity at the plate.

I don't think my sourness on Alex is any thing recent or revisionist. I have never really liked him. Easily my least favorite Royal, so I have always been admittedly critical on him with my own bias . And DAMNIT! I am forever burned with the image of him in my brain with that stupid hat he wore on in the WS victory parade.

[Willie Lanier]

Originally Posted by OKchiefs

So, any predictions on who will be traded at the deadline? I would imagine Moustakas is a top candidate. Who else?

Duffy?
Salvy?
Whit?

Trading Salvy would emaciate the fan base

[DeepSouth]

Originally Posted by OKchiefs

So, any predictions on who will be traded at the deadline? I would imagine Moustakas is a top candidate. Who else?

Duffy?
Salvy?
Whit?

I think there are several they would LIKE to move but for it to happen, those players would have to have a good 1st half;

Kennedy - would have to have a great first half for someone to take that salary.
Hammel - would have to have a great first half.
Herrera
Jon Jay - bring on Bubba Starling.
Duda - Would love to see them give Ryan O'Hearn a shot a 1st.
Cuthbert - personally, I'd rather have Dozier at 3rd next year.
Gordon - there will be no takers unless he bats around .300
Soler or Bonifacio - don't need two DH'ers on the team.

[Infidel Goat]

Originally Posted by RubberSponge

No. I am not judging him based on his batting avg. alone. What I am saying is the decline at the plate was evident years prior to his contract in 2016. The idea that this is something that just happened recently, or just after his injury is crazy. He had a gradual decline where those batting issues were overlooked because of his defensive ability, hometown sentiment and ability to bring people out to the games because of his popularity.

If you think an avg. of 15-16hrs(even in the K) a year is a power bat and striking out twice as many times as you walk is a patient batter during 2013-2015 then I guess, well... Have fun with that mediocrity at the plate.

I don't think my sourness on Alex is any thing recent or revisionist. I have never really liked him. Easily my least favorite Royal, so I have always been admittedly critical on him with my own bias . And DAMNIT! I am forever burned with the image of him in my brain with that stupid hat he wore on in the WS victory parade.

YEAR OPS+
2007 90
2008 109
2009 87
2010 84
2011 140
2012 123
2013 103
2014 118
2015 119

When was his dropoff prior to resigning with KC exactly? I'll give you that his career year occurred in 2011, but there's little difference in AG in 2012, 2014, and 2015 (except he was injured).

[siberian khatru]

Originally Posted by RubberSponge

No. I am not judging him based on his batting avg. alone. What I am saying is the decline at the plate was evident years prior to his contract in 2016. The idea that this is something that just happened recently, or just after his injury is crazy. He had a gradual decline where those batting issues were overlooked because of his defensive ability, hometown sentiment and ability to bring people out to the games because of his popularity.

This simply isn't true.

Put aside his breakout year of 2011, which is an outlier. His season-by-season OPS+ from 2012-15 were 123, 103, 118 and 119. His wRC+ over that period: 126, 104, 120, 122.

Before his injury in 2015, he was hitting .279/.394/.457/.852.

He had a down 2013, but his 2014 and 15 seasons were in line with 2012. So three out of four years he was consistently around 20 percent better than league average offensively.

I fail to see any detectable decline pre-injury.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by RubberSponge

No. I am not judging him based on his batting avg. alone. What I am saying is the decline at the plate was evident years prior to his contract in 2016. The idea that this is something that just happened recently, or just after his injury is crazy. He had a gradual decline where those batting issues were overlooked because of his defensive ability, hometown sentiment and ability to bring people out to the games because of his popularity.

If you think an avg. of 15-16hrs(even in the K) a year is a power bat and striking out twice as many times as you walk is a patient batter during 2013-2015 then I guess, well... Have fun with that mediocrity at the plate.

I don't think my sourness on Alex is any thing recent or revisionist. I have never really liked him. Easily my least favorite Royal, so I have always been admittedly critical on him with my own bias . And DAMNIT! I am forever burned with the image of him in my brain with that stupid hat he wore on in the WS victory parade.

Again, I gotta disagree. Because his offense actually improved each year from 2013-2015.

Strikeouts have nothing to do with the patience of a hitter. Alcides Escobar and Yuniesky Betancourt rarely struck out, but that’s because they always swung at the first pitch. Working the count means you’re going to walk more, but also strikeout more as a result.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by RubberSponge

I disagree. There were clear and obvious signs of his offensive downfall evident for years prior to his contract in 2016. Those signs were overlooked, or just not paid attention to. His value was never in his bat for KC or much of any club IMO. It was his defense, hometown sentiment, and ability to put butts in seats.



Gordon is a career .250ish hitter that has had only one season where he batted over .300. Every year since he batted .300 he has steadily declined in many batting categories, year after year. The year he batted over .300 was in 2011. So yes, it was clear and obvious there was a decline happening in his offensive capabilities with 4 years of decline prior to the contract.

It’s your prerogative to be wrong. Be my guest.

Alex Gordon had a career year in 2011 and a down year in 2013. His batting average drop coincided with teams beginning to shift against him in 2013.

His 2012, 14, and 15 seasons were very nearly identical, and his 2015 rate stats were his best since 2012.

Using BA as a barometer of a hitter’s worth is an outdated and foolish approach. He was a consistent .265-.270/.350 OBP guy in the three years leading up to the deal, production that was around 20 percent above league average. He was a top 25 (overall) offensive player in Baseball from 2011-2015 and top 35 from 2014-15.

Your narrative is driven by bias and disconnected from statistical fact.

[duncan_idaho]

It’s also worth mentioning that Gordon’s 10.7 percent walk rate in 2014-15 was 24th in all of baseball.

Get out of here with the “not a patient hitter” garbage.

He sucks now and likely will suck until he hangs it up. But get out of here with Your proclaimed foresight, Nostradamus.

[Abba-Dabba]

What I said earlier about making people livid when the truth is spoke about Alex is all still well and good.

So no one saw the decline coming huh? WTF are you guys talking about? Talk about selective memory, or like I said overlooking and not paying attention.

Here is Fangraphs 2012

2012

Profile: Most people know that Alex Gordon finally had a good season in 2011, but how many know that he was actually one of the best players in baseball? The low run environment these days means that .302/.376/.502 is excellent from a left fielder, and Gordon was also tremendous in taking the extra base and also in the field. Of course, non-stolen base baserunning and fielding do not matter in most fantasy leagues. Moreover, Gordon will no longer have third base eligibility in 2012 as he did in 2011. He was over his head, too. He did cut the strikeouts a bit, but most of the batting average jump came from an inflated batting average on balls in play, which will regress in 2012. So do not overpay as if he is going to repeat. But Gordon knows how to take a walk, has good power, and although Kauffman Stadium eats up homers, it increases balls in play. Gordon is not George Brett, but .270/.355/.465 with 20 home runs and 10+ steals is a reasonable projection -- and valuable. (Matt Klaassen)

The Quick Opinion: Alex Gordon looked like a bust. Then in 2011 he boomed. He is probably going to regress, but is still probably going to be a good fantasy player at the right price in 2012.

2013

Profile: Alex regressed a bit from 2011 when he experienced his best season ever. The 29-year-old lefty will hit around 20 home runs, sport a .280-.300 average and steal double-digit bags in his average season, it looks like. Those numbers are good. No one number really stands out, but each will be above-average in all but the shallowest of leagues. He has been able to main a consistent walk (~10%) and strikeout (~20%) rate over the years. One "issue" surrounding him is his position in the lineup. He thrived in the leadoff spot, but the Royals would like for him to move down into one of the power positions. His run-RBI mix could be all over the place, but the total of each should be around 180 total. (Jeff Zimmerman)

The Quick Opinion: Alex Gordon is stealthy good. Above-average numbers across the board.

2014

Profile: Alex Gordon has turned into a unexciting player who gives his owners a fairly consistent return. He's past any hitting peak and it is all downhill here from now, but most of us can say that for ourselves -- his boring production and decline shouldn't scare owners away. He projects to hit around .275 with 15 to 22 home runs and 10 stolen bases. The problem I have with Gordon is a move the Royals made at the end of May when they replaced hitting coaches. Before that move, Gordon was hitting .329/.371/.486. That dropped to .233/.306/.388 after the move, which might not be worrisome if there weren't reasons for the drop. He went from hitting 33% fly balls in the season's first half -- something he'd done to produce despite Kauffman Stadium's size -- to 47% fly balls in the second half. The fly ball increase is the main reason his batting average on balls in play dropped from .347 to .265. And yet it didn't help his power -- the increase in fly balls saw him only hit two more home runs in the season's second half. I hope to see Gordon ditch the fly ball approach he took after the Royals changed hitting coaches. And if you draft him, you hope so too. (
Jeff Zimmerman)

The Quick Opinion: Alex Gordon has consistently positive fantasy value. He may see a larger than expected drop in production because of a new approach at the plate.

2015

Profile: Wilhelm Reich once said of Freud that even when he was wrong, he was right. With Alex Gordon, one might say that even when he is overrated, he is still underrated. After being one of the better overall real-baseball outfielders in baseball since 2011, prominent columnists felt it important to write that Gordon was not worthy of being the 2014 American League MVP because of all the "Alex Gordon for MVP" hype generated by, uh, pretty much no one. Sure, a lot of that had to do with backlash against stuff like wins above replacement and fielding metrics, but it still highlights just how unappreciated Gordon has been. In fantasy baseball, many of the things that he does in real baseball don't count -- such as excellent defense and smart base running. As a hitter, nothing really stands out. He usually has an average strikeout rate, and he is basically a bit above-average when it comes to walks and power. He is not going to carry any one category. The high batting averages on balls in play of 2011 and 2012 are gone, but he's still managed to be very productive on offense. Gordon's conditioning is legendary (he is rumored to have last have had pizza while he attended high school) and he has played 151 or more games each of the last four seasons. His likely 2015 line is not all that different from his 2008 sophomore season. What is different is that in 2008 that sort of line was considered okay-ish from a third baseman, and these days it is pretty good for a left fielder. The run environment matters in fantasy leagues. Throw in 20 home runs, double-digit steals, and durability. and you have a good, if not great, fantasy player. (Matt Klaassen)

The Quick Opinion: Good thing all those brave columnists wrote that Alex Gordon should not be the AL MVP in 2014, because it really convinced the thousands of people lining up to vote for him to re-think things. Gordon is not a fantasy superstar, but his durability and general ability to help in all categories makes puts him right below that level in AL-only leagues and makes him a very solid starter in almost all others.

Should I go on to 2016 and 2017? There were plenty of people who saw the decline. Just because you overlooked it, doesn't mean it wasn't there.

[SPchief]

Are you seriously pointing out fantasy PROJECTIONS?

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by SPchief

Are you seriously pointing out fantasy PROJECTIONS?

Forget it he's rolling