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Old 11-22-2020, 10:58 PM  
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
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Old 12-15-2020, 04:13 PM   #196
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Can someone explain to me how Buff gets the #1 seed if KC and Buff both finish 13-3? I just did a scenario where KC and Buff both finished 13-3 and that's how it came out. I think its wrong. I thought first tie-breaker was head to head, then conference record?
It's only possible in the case of a three-way tie with the Steelers. In that scenario, the head-to-head tiebreaker only matters if one team defeated BOTH of the others. Since that's not the case, the other tiebreakers kick in (starting with conference record, common games, etc.). We still win most of the scenarios, but there are some scenarios where the Bills could take it.
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Old 12-15-2020, 04:39 PM   #197
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It's only possible in the case of a three-way tie with the Steelers. In that scenario, the head-to-head tiebreaker only matters if one team defeated BOTH of the others. Since that's not the case, the other tiebreakers kick in (starting with conference record, common games, etc.). We still win most of the scenarios, but there are some scenarios where the Bills could take it.
OK - Got it.
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Old 12-15-2020, 05:16 PM   #198
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Correct.

Depending on how things play out with the Steelers, the only real must-win game is the Chargers.
Actually, from all the scenarios I just ran...the Bills win out & the Chiefs lose out...the Bills get it.
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Old 12-15-2020, 05:18 PM   #199
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Can someone explain to me how Buff gets the #1 seed if KC and Buff both finish 13-3? I just did a scenario where KC and Buff both finished 13-3 and that's how it came out. I think its wrong. I thought first tie-breaker was head to head, then conference record?
Depends on which team the Chiefs beat. Chiefs beat the Chargers they get the bye.

Play around with this....

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...l-predictions/
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Old 12-15-2020, 07:11 PM   #200
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Actually, from all the scenarios I just ran...the Bills win out & the Chiefs lose out...the Bills get it.
They'd have a better record then, so not a tiebreaker win, it'd be outright.
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Old 12-15-2020, 07:21 PM   #201
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Actually, from all the scenarios I just ran...the Bills win out & the Chiefs lose out...the Bills get it.
That's why the Chargers game is a "must win".
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Old 12-15-2020, 09:26 PM   #202
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They'd have a better record then, so not a tiebreaker win, it'd be outright.
Yeah, not exactly rocket science on that one.
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:21 AM   #203
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Chiefs need to go 6-0 the rest of the year.
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Old 12-16-2020, 11:46 AM   #204
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Chiefs need to will go 6-0 the rest of the year.
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Old 12-17-2020, 10:36 AM   #205
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Old 12-18-2020, 02:10 PM   #206
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Is it crazy that I think the Donkos beat the Bills tomorrow?

Is it also crazy that I think the Colts might end up with the 2nd seed?

How about that the Browns don't even make the playoffs?

The week 17 game of Miami @ Buffalo is going to be HUGE!
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Old 12-18-2020, 02:12 PM   #207
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Is it crazy that I think the Donkos beat the Bills tomorrow?
Their defense is salty, it's possible.

But Lock is just horrible. He's a turnover machine.
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Old 12-18-2020, 02:14 PM   #208
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Is it crazy that I think the Donkos beat the Bills tomorrow?

Is it also crazy that I think the Colts might end up with the 2nd seed?

How about that the Browns don't even make the playoffs?

That would warm my heart.
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Old 12-19-2020, 04:19 PM   #209
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Is it crazy that I think the Donkos beat the Bills tomorrow?

You are ****ing nuts!
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Old 12-20-2020, 09:27 AM   #210
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...l-predictions/

Win today: 97% chance of bye
Lose today: 90% chance of bye

Saints go from 16% with a loss to 41% with a win for a bye.

Game just means more to the Saints.

Game is virtually meaningless but the Chiefs still win.
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