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[Rain Man]

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[wheeler08]

Just saw that the games were done after a late night of iracing. Didn’t think to look at play by play before box score. Didn’t even know where to look till I watched Clays informative video

[TambaBerry]

Originally Posted by cdcox

Sacks were low. But overall points were about right. I will take a look at sacks before the next round of sims.

I know my team is terrible I'm just complaining haha

[wheeler08]

This may have been asked before, but can injuries occur in the sim? Or if Captain Kirk Cousins is available for every game, then he is guaranteed to play every snap of season? Because I didn't get a backup qb, didn't see the point

[wheeler08]

Just read the play by play, this is pretty neat what you guys have came up with.

[wheeler08]

Man you have to feel like shit when your QB gets picked off twice by Orlando Scandrick!

[wheeler08]

Wow, San Marcos got a helluva street free agent RB.

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by wheeler08

Wow, San Marcos got a helluva street free agent RB.

That might be more indicative of the _efense than the actual free agent off the street.

[DJ's left nut]

It's always interesting to see if things go how you think they're gonna go when you put your gameplan in place.

A league leading 38% pressure rate to go along with 3 forced turnovers (2 interceptions) and a perfect 50/50 run/pass split on offense, eh?

Yeah, I'd say that's what I was going for. It's gonna be a slog trying to win w/ a mediocre QB and a defense-first squad, but I saw a nice pass distribution among my 4 WRs, even if I was disappointed in the 3rd down conversion rates. And as CD noted, I spent the entire damn game in the Carson City backfield and had ONE sack to show for it, which seems completely nutty but otherwise things seemed to work about as expected.

Watching the play by play felt like a Chiefs game, for sure. Every time we had a 7 point lead and the football we would immediately go 3 and out and then give up a score. We led most of the way but simply refused to put Carson City away until a late turnover to seal the W.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by wheeler08

This may have been asked before, but can injuries occur in the sim? Or if Captain Kirk Cousins is available for every game, then he is guaranteed to play every snap of season? Because I didn't get a backup qb, didn't see the point

Generally speaking you'll prepare your team BEFORE the regular season plays out. So for this year there's no need for a backup because no, your availability is what it is and there are no 'in-game' injuries.

For subsequent seasons though, you have no idea if your QB will stay healthy all 16 weeks in real life so you may well end up losing him in the sim as well. We're nearly 2 full seasons 'behind' right now, so things will be a little different when it's all caught up.

[TambaBerry]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

It's always interesting to see if things go how you think they're gonna go when you put your gameplan in place.

A league leading 38% pressure rate to go along with 3 forced turnovers (2 interceptions) and a perfect 50/50 run/pass split on offense, eh?

Yeah, I'd say that's what I was going for. It's gonna be a slog trying to win w/ a mediocre QB and a defense-first squad, but I saw a nice pass distribution among my 4 WRs, even if I was disappointed in the 3rd down conversion rates. And as CD noted, I spent the entire damn game in the Carson City backfield and had ONE sack to show for it, which seems completely nutty but otherwise things seemed to work about as expected.

Watching the play by play felt like a Chiefs game, for sure. Every time we had a 7 point lead and the football we would immediately go 3 and out and then give up a score. We led most of the way but simply refused to put Carson City away until a late turnover to seal the W.

I had .4% less pressure rate then you and Baker Mayfield tore me up lol I didn't even get a sack

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by wheeler08

Wow, San Marcos got a helluva street free agent RB.

I'm going to cut my street free agent RB who kind of cost me the game, and I'll see if I can trade for that guy.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by TambaBerry

I had .4% less pressure rate then you and Baker Mayfield tore me up lol I didn't even get a sack

Yeah, looks like a 'fair' sack rate is 1 sack for every 3.75-4 pressures. Granted, some guys are just better at finishing a play, so every team may be a little different in that regard, but that should be a balllpark return on a leaguewide basis.

So w/ 27 total sacks last week that would take roughly 105 pressures on a 'fair' basis. There were WAY more pressures around the league last week.

Now I can't really find a way to add total pressures last but I can come up with a sort of ballpark pressure rate and multiply that by the 751 pass attempts in the league in week 1. You run those figures (understanding there's some fudge in the figurin') and you yield an overall league pressure rate of roughly 24.25%. That's not actually a bad figure but still a little low compared to the 28% pressure rate we saw in the NFL last season.

Let's just assume that last week the overall pressure rate was roughly 25%. There were 751 pass attempts so there should have been roughly 188 pressures. At 1 sack for every 4 pressure (which is conservative), there should've been 47 sacks last week. Run at at 3.75 and you're at 50. So there should've been somewhere between 47 and 50 sacks last week based on the pressure rate we showed. And 53-56 if you used last seasons actual leaguewide pressure rate of roughly 28%

So yeah, sack rate should be way up. Pressure rate seems about rate or at least in the ballpark (though potentially a tick low, that is not due to the overall figures but mostly just a couple of really bad teams in St. Joseph and Corona who had a 'sub Raiders' figure last week and are likely outliers). It's just that those pressures aren't yielding any sacks.

Now it does seem that pressure does make it difficult for QBs on a rating basis. For instance, Keenum was 6/12 for 71 yards, zero touchdowns and an INT when pressured. That's a 33.68 QB rating (or, y'know - AWFUL). His QB Rating on passes that weren't under pressure was roughly 81.4. That's actually larger than the average NFL difference last season (average 'clean' QB Rating was 99.3 and pressured was 64.6) but is close enough to the ballpark to just chalk it up to low sample sizes and/or a QB who simply isn't very good in Case Keenum so pressure may rattle him more.

Seems like the pass rush stuff MOSTLY worked. Went off at a reasonable rate. Impacted passing efficiency about like it should. It simply didn't yield the sacks it should have. There were about 60% as many sacks as there should've been.

[carlos3652]

Dj, in my game with Clay, under pressure:

Goff: 5/7 44 yards 1td 0 sacks
Brees: 8/10 111 yards 0 td 0 sacks

[Rain Man]

Another thing to consider is that we only have 24 teams, so the weakest starting NFL offensive linemen aren't starting (unless maybe someone is starting Garrett Bolles). Of course, the weakest defensive rushers aren't starting as well, so maybe it washes out.

And of course, this is only one week, so there's a lot of randomness.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Another thing to consider is that we only have 24 teams, so the weakest starting NFL offensive linemen aren't starting (unless maybe someone is starting Garrett Bolles). Of course, the weakest defensive rushers aren't starting as well, so maybe it washes out.

And of course, this is only one week, so there's a lot of randomness.

Pressure rate discrepancy can probably be written off as randomness.

But 60% as many sacks? That's probably a problem.