If the Chiefs took WR Christian Watson at 30… - Page 13

staylor26 · 03-11-2022, 02:01 PM

How would you feel about that?

**The Franchise** · 04-01-2022, 07:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kccrow

A guy like Watson definitely presents a conundrum.

He has an athletic profile that absolutely screams at you "#1 WR," and I have little doubt about that. What you can't gauge is how well he's going to adapt to the NFL and how he will enhance his rudimentary route running. He's a definitive "boom or bust" prospect.

In the other corner, I look at a guy like Jalen Tolbert who doesn't have an elite athletic profile. He has a good profile, but not like Watson. What Tolbert does have is elite production and elite route-running skills (for college). His floor is incredibly higher, probably "productive #2 WR." When I do look at Tolbert's athletic profile though, I can't help but see a guy I really liked several years ago that turned out to be a draft steal and certified stud in Stefon Diggs.

So you can take a guy like Watson and hope he reaches his potential, which very well could be in the stratosphere of Justin Jefferson and Jamaar Chase, or he could easily bust. You could otherwise take a guy like Tolbert who looks to be at least a Marvin Jones caliber #2 that could be Stefon Diggs if he gets even better. When it comes to WRs, I've tried to evaluate more on that athletic profile and haven't had much luck with it in recent times. At this point, I'm taking Tolbert 100 out of 100 times early. I'll save my hopes for guys like Gray or Melton to bust out as a 4th/5th round pick.

Tolbert Gang!

DJ's left nut · 04-01-2022, 07:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kccrow

A guy like Watson definitely presents a conundrum.

He has an athletic profile that absolutely screams at you "#1 WR," and I have little doubt about that. What you can't gauge is how well he's going to adapt to the NFL and how he will enhance his rudimentary route running. He's a definitive "boom or bust" prospect.

In the other corner, I look at a guy like Jalen Tolbert who doesn't have an elite athletic profile. He has a good profile, but not like Watson. What Tolbert does have is elite production and elite route-running skills (for college). His floor is incredibly higher, probably "productive #2 WR." When I do look at Tolbert's athletic profile though, I can't help but see a guy I really liked several years ago that turned out to be a draft steal and certified stud in Stefon Diggs.

So you can take a guy like Watson and hope he reaches his potential, which very well could be in the stratosphere of Justin Jefferson and Jamaar Chase, or he could easily bust. You could otherwise take a guy like Tolbert who looks to be at least a Marvin Jones caliber #2 that could be Stefon Diggs if he gets even better. When it comes to WRs, I've tried to evaluate more on that athletic profile and haven't had much luck with it in recent times. At this point, I'm taking Tolbert 100 out of 100 times early. I'll save my hopes for guys like Gray or Melton to bust out as a 4th/5th round pick.

Yeah, Watson/Tolbert is usually the exact discussion I have with myself as well.

And then right there in between the two you have Alec Pierce who is a weird hybrid of the two. More athletic than Tolbert, more polished than Watson.

But I think THAT'S the tier these guys are all in. Late 2nd, early 3rd considerations. And at that point it's just a question of choosing what flavor of ice cream you're after there.

What I've taken exception to is the willingness to hand-waive the floor, move straight to the ceiling and say "well because Watson is so athletic his ceiling is higher and as such he's an obviously better prospect than those guys..."

I just don't think ceiling is the only thing that you should be considering here. There's a real possibility the guy goes Matt Jones on you and never does anything worthwhile in this league. And when taking that into consideration, he's more of a late 2nd into the 3rd round caliber pick for me who, for the Chiefs anyway, would be behind someone like Tolbert and Pierce.

I'm fine letting our generational QB take good players and make them great.

DJ's left nut · 04-01-2022, 07:27 AM

Think of Patrick Mahomes as similar to Coors Field.

There's a saying in baseball circles - "Coors Field doesn't turn bad hitters into good hitters. It turns good hitters into great ones..."

I think that's what an elite quarterback does. He can't turn Demarcus Robinson into Deandre Hopkins. You can't give him guys who just aren't NFL players and have him make them into 1,000 yard guys.

But if you give him 6-700 yard guys, he MIGHT be able to turn them into 1,100 yard guys.

I think the odds of Tolbert or Pierce being merely good NFL players are significantly higher than the odds of Watson being one. And so I'm willing to leave some ceiling on the table for the floor and then let my QB do the rest.

If I had someone like Jimmy Garappolo under center, someone who needs his WRs to carry his water for him, I'm more likely to focus on the ceiling of a player than his floor.

But again - for THIS team - that's just not how I'd operate.

**The Franchise** · 04-01-2022, 07:27 AM

I’m stuck figuring out if I want Pierce or Tolbert at this point.

DJ's left nut · 04-01-2022, 07:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Tolbert Gang!

via GIPHY

DJ's left nut · 04-01-2022, 07:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise

I’m stuck figuring out if I want Pierce or Tolbert at this point.

I'd just let the guys in front of me choose blonde or brunette here...

I'm honestly pretty content just letting it sort itself out with this group of guys. I'd prefer use one of those late 3s on one of them but it's seeming less and less likely that they fall with the WR market going insane.

I think teams are going to really attack that position to try to get some cost control. Especially with the wealth of height/speed monsters we're seeing in this class.

**The Franchise** · 04-01-2022, 07:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I'd just let the guys in front of me choose blonde or brunette here...

I'm honestly pretty content just letting it sort itself out with this group of guys. I'd prefer use one of those late 3s on one of them but it's seeming less and less likely that they fall with the WR market going insane.

I think teams are going to really attack that position to try to get some cost control. Especially with the wealth of height/speed monsters we're seeing in this class.

With the way it’s going….you’re probably taking one of them at 62 if they’re there.

Ojabo
Jones
Williams
Tolbert

I’d be good with this first four picks.

DJ's left nut · 04-01-2022, 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise

With the way it’s going….you’re probably taking one of them at 62 if they’re there.

Ojabo
Jones
Williams
Tolbert

I’d be good with this first four picks.

Sold. And if Tolbert gets taken, I'd go with Pierce. And if they're both gone I'm still going with Calvin Austin over Watson.

But then if somehow all 3 are gone - that's when Watson at the back of 2 becomes a legitimate consideration.

But I think I'm probably the high man on Austin. I don't think anyone else really puts him ahead of Watson. I just think that we have the style of offense that can do a lot to minimize the height issues and take advantage of that lateral quickness and long-speed.

We don't necessarily need a big body to have a guy generate yards in this system. He won't be a read zone weapon, but he'll be absolutely terrifying between the 20s and on those 3rd down dagger routes, etc... that we used so effectively in short yardage situations.

And lets say we're at the back of 2 and all 4 of those guys are still there - I may just not take any of them. I'd survey the board and see if someone like Perrion Winfrey is slipping. And yeah, I'd get murdered for going DE, DT, DE, DT with my first 4 picks, but **** 'em - I'm driving this bus.

htismaqe · 04-01-2022, 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

But if you give him 6-700 yard guys, he MIGHT be able to turn them into 1,100 yard guys.

The prognosticators and analysts seem to believe that Juju is one of these guys. Just putting that out there.

DJ's left nut · 04-01-2022, 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

The prognosticators and analysts seem to believe that Juju is one of these guys. Just putting that out there.

There's a non-zero chance he is.

I'm less opposed to JJSS now that we're likely changing our offensive approach pretty substantially.

I simply didn't think he was the complement to Hill/Kelce that most others did. And frankly I still think he's mist-cast out of the slot and should be used as a more conventional X.

But we'll see. He was cheap and he might be exactly the sort of guy I'm talking about.

htismaqe · 04-01-2022, 08:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

There's a non-zero chance he is.

I'm less opposed to JJSS now that we're likely changing our offensive approach pretty substantially.

I simply didn't think he was the complement to Hill/Kelce that most others did. And frankly I still think he's mist-cast out of the slot and should be used as a more conventional X.

But we'll see. He was cheap and he might be exactly the sort of guy I'm talking about.

A couple of the early NGS models I've seen have him around 1000-1100 yards and 8-10 TD's.

If we get that out of him, that would be bonus.

duncan_idaho · 04-01-2022, 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kccrow

A guy like Watson definitely presents a conundrum.

He has an athletic profile that absolutely screams at you "#1 WR," and I have little doubt about that. What you can't gauge is how well he's going to adapt to the NFL and how he will enhance his rudimentary route running. He's a definitive "boom or bust" prospect.

In the other corner, I look at a guy like Jalen Tolbert who doesn't have an elite athletic profile. He has a good profile, but not like Watson. What Tolbert does have is elite production and elite route-running skills (for college). His floor is incredibly higher, probably "productive #2 WR." When I do look at Tolbert's athletic profile though, I can't help but see a guy I really liked several years ago that turned out to be a draft steal and certified stud in Stefon Diggs.

So you can take a guy like Watson and hope he reaches his potential, which very well could be in the stratosphere of Justin Jefferson and Jamaar Chase, or he could easily bust. You could otherwise take a guy like Tolbert who looks to be at least a Marvin Jones caliber #2 that could be Stefon Diggs if he gets even better. When it comes to WRs, I've tried to evaluate more on that athletic profile and haven't had much luck with it in recent times. At this point, I'm taking Tolbert 100 out of 100 times early. I'll save my hopes for guys like Gray or Melton to bust out as a 4th/5th round pick.

That's fair. I like Tolbert, too. I won't complain and would be excited about both guys. Or Pierce. Really, I'd be excited about anyone except Bell, who is not athletic enough to success in the NFL

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise

With the way it’s going….you’re probably taking one of them at 62 if they’re there.

Ojabo
Jones
Williams
Tolbert

I’d be good with this first four picks.

Ojabo is starting to scare me off a bit. You read reports and his success is SO first-step dependent. For a guy who just popped an Achilles', that's a terrifying idea to me.

If the training staff signs off on it, and they make the pick, I'll be excited about the upside (while waiting nervously for the "he isn't the same" shoe to drop).

**The Franchise** · 04-01-2022, 08:31 AM

I think Juju is going to fit just fine into this offense.

**The Franchise** · 04-01-2022, 08:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

That's fair. I like Tolbert, too. I won't complain and would be excited about both guys. Or Pierce. Really, I'd be excited about anyone except Bell, who is not athletic enough to success in the NFL

Ojabo is starting to scare me off a bit. You read reports and his success is SO first-step dependent. For a guy who just popped an Achilles', that's a terrifying idea to me.

If the training staff signs off on it, and they make the pick, I'll be excited about the upside (while waiting nervously for the "he isn't the same" shoe to drop).

And that’s why the Ojabo pick comes with another DE in the 2nd round. Hell if I’m taking Ojabo…then I’m taking three DEs in this draft. You won’t have Ojabo in his first year.

RunKC · 04-01-2022, 10:15 AM

The question we should be asking with Watson is this: is there a big difference between this kid and Tyquan Thornton, Velus Jones or Danny Gray?

Because you can get one of those 3 at the end of the 2nd rd.

I think I’d rather get with option B and get a Danny Gray at 62 o 94.

03-11-2022, 02:01 PM
staylor26 In Search of a Life Join Date: Oct 2007 Casino cash: $1509040	If the Chiefs took WR Christian Watson at 30… How would you feel about that?
Posts: 49,136

04-01-2022, 07:27 AM	#183
DJ's left nut Sauntering Vaguely Downwards Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Columbia, Mo Casino cash: $2719099	Think of Patrick Mahomes as similar to Coors Field. There's a saying in baseball circles - "Coors Field doesn't turn bad hitters into good hitters. It turns good hitters into great ones..." I think that's what an elite quarterback does. He can't turn Demarcus Robinson into Deandre Hopkins. You can't give him guys who just aren't NFL players and have him make them into 1,000 yard guys. But if you give him 6-700 yard guys, he MIGHT be able to turn them into 1,100 yard guys. I think the odds of Tolbert or Pierce being merely good NFL players are significantly higher than the odds of Watson being one. And so I'm willing to leave some ceiling on the table for the floor and then let my QB do the rest. If I had someone like Jimmy Garappolo under center, someone who needs his WRs to carry his water for him, I'm more likely to focus on the ceiling of a player than his floor. But again - for THIS team - that's just not how I'd operate. __________________ "If there's a god, he's laughing at us.....and our football team..." "When you look at something through rose colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags."
Posts: 60,763	1 0

04-01-2022, 07:27 AM	#184
The Franchise Most Valuable Villain Join Date: Dec 2006 Casino cash: $2825047	I’m stuck figuring out if I want Pierce or Tolbert at this point.
Posts: 92,296

04-01-2022, 08:31 AM	#193
The Franchise Most Valuable Villain Join Date: Dec 2006 Casino cash: $2825047	I think Juju is going to fit just fine into this offense.
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04-01-2022, 10:15 AM	#195
RunKC Andy Reid Supporter Join Date: Apr 2012 Casino cash: $1979611	The question we should be asking with Watson is this: is there a big difference between this kid and Tyquan Thornton, Velus Jones or Danny Gray? Because you can get one of those 3 at the end of the 2nd rd. I think I’d rather get with option B and get a Danny Gray at 62 o 94. __________________ Mike Greenberg@Espngreeny I can’t fathom what it must be like to be a fan of the #Chiefs. Adopt a Chief: Noah Gray
Posts: 46,299	1 0