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04-06-2020, 01:20 PM | #17371 |
Life is changing..
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04-06-2020, 01:20 PM | #17372 |
"You like to drink?"
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04-06-2020, 01:21 PM | #17373 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
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Quote:
Let's use the early WaPo graphic things a bit. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...ona-simulator/ Look at their 'spread' graph with the little dots bouncing around. Sound theory, right? But those dots don't behave like people. They bounce around erratically. In real life, that's not how people work. We know from behavior research that people are shockingly insular when it gets down to it. Not all of them - truly transient types bounce around like those dots. But the overwhelming majority of people just don't. They stay in roughly similar behavior patterns; between thinly transcribed lines, so to speak. And when that happens, the majority of the randomized collisions in those models don't happen as even a little bit of thinning starts. So the impact of ANY level of social distancing was wildly understated, as was the impact of people getting sick and/or voluntarily isolating. People behave irrationally oftentimes, but in a strangely predictable way. They don't just behave erratically. So any model that was built on that premise (i.e. any of them that leaned hard into exponential growth - i.e. all of them) has failed spectacularly. Now if I'm one of those guys, I say "sure, we underestimated the impact of 'x, y and z' social distancing measures, but we DIDN'T underestimate what would've happened had we done nothing at all. So we clearly still needed to do something and our models proved that..." To which I still would've told them to **** off and die because there are very very few people who said to do nothing differently at all. What that response does is completely ignore any concept of diminishing marginal returns. At some point your model needs to not suck giant bawls so we can figure out where these returns maximize and we can start to try to match up points of intersection to some useful degree. Even taking that response at face value, we have no idea what degrees of social distancing are actually yielding positive returns. Because, y'know, we never stood back for a second and took stock of anything before we did the next thing. Just spectacular science and modeling all around, really.
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"If there's a god, he's laughing at us.....and our football team..." "When you look at something through rose colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags." |
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04-06-2020, 01:25 PM | #17374 | |
THIS .... IS... ARROWHEAD!!!!
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04-06-2020, 01:32 PM | #17375 |
Has a particular set of skills
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VARSITY
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I'm sorry for the guy and hope he recovers fully but...... his opinion that herd immunity would resolve the virus faster than social distancing was insane.
Purposefully mocking the threat, shaking hands with known coronavius positive people to make his point that it wasn't serious put more people in jeopardy.
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Time is worth more than money. |
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04-06-2020, 01:36 PM | #17376 | |
In Search of a Life
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04-06-2020, 01:38 PM | #17377 | |
Life is changing..
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Good idea to be checked out though regardless |
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04-06-2020, 01:45 PM | #17378 | |
Life is changing..
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04-06-2020, 01:48 PM | #17379 |
"Think BOOM!"
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I think the young people enjoy it when I "get down," verbally, don't you? |
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04-06-2020, 01:50 PM | #17380 |
Hockey Town
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Boris Johnson is a dope......why is it that during some massive outbreak we have a list of world leaders that leaves a lot to be desired.
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04-06-2020, 01:50 PM | #17381 |
I love your mom
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Just a tutorial on masks.
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1720657475514 |
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04-06-2020, 01:51 PM | #17382 |
Starter
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I also suspected this could be it. Had to put my dog down late February and with that came a sort of existential crisis. Paired with all the covid news, it has given me a few restless nights. I'm going to make an appointment today.
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04-06-2020, 01:53 PM | #17383 |
Life is changing..
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Yep, sounds like some stress/anxiety. Good on you for making the appointment though. Best to play it safe.
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04-06-2020, 01:54 PM | #17384 |
Life is changing..
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04-06-2020, 01:55 PM | #17385 |
Time Keeps On Slipping
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I'm sorry if my post added to your anxiety, man. I just worry about people and I want you to get checked out and hopefully everything is okay. Better safe than sorry.
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